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European Forward Looking Activities

(FLA)

AUGUR stakeholder workshop

Brussels, 17-18 November2011

Domenico ROSSETTI di VALDALBERO

European Commission, DG Research and Innovation

Domenico.Rossetti-di-Valdalbero@ec.europa.eu

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Modesty is a must

Financial and economic crises Technological developments Social habits Political movements …

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EU Forward Looking Activities

Foresight, Forecast, Horizon scanning, Technology Assessment, Impact Assessment, Prospective

A long tradition in the EU

European Council: Gonzalez Report « Europe 2030 » EP: Scientific Technology Options Assessment (STOA) Council and Member States: Joint Programming (JPI) European Commission

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Gonzalez Report “Europe 2030”

Source: http://www.flagslist.com/maps/Asia/asia-map.gif

Europe is at a crossroads: either we keep and strengthen the role as one of the main global actors, or we become an “increasingly irrelevant outgrowth on the Asian continent”

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Largest countries by 2025 (100 million or over)

China (1453) India (1431) EU-27 (517) USA (358) Indonesia (263) Pakistan (246) Brazil (214) Nigeria (210) Bangladesh (195)

Russia (132) Mexico (123) Japan (120) Ethiopia (119) Philippines (117) Egypt (105) Not a single European

country in this list

Source: UN

Il n’y a plus que des petits pays en Europe, mais certains ne le savent pas (Paul-Henri Spaak)

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“Nobody cares” – Consumption share

Source: European Commission, DG RTD (Global Europe 2030/2050), MIRAGE model, L. Fontagné

0

0,05

0,1

0,15

0,2

0,25

0,3

0,35

2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044 2049

Japan

ASEAN

India

USA

RoLAC

Brazil

EU27

Russia

MiddleEast

PPWCAsia

Turkey

China

USA

EU27

China

India

Japan

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EU energy imports

Source: European Commission, DG Energy (TREN)

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Evolving regimes

1840-1914 Imperial liberalism 1914-1945 Mercantilism and war economy 1945-1980 State interventionism and socialism 1980-2008 Liberal capitalism 2008-… State capitalism?

Source: European Commission, DG RTD (POLINARES), R. Dannreuther

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European Commission Forward Looking Activities

A long tradition:

FAST and Cellule de Prospective / BEPA Multiannual Financial Perspectives Long-term planning (SF, FP,…) Europe 2020 Roadmap to a low carbon economy in 2050 Transports 2050, Energy Roadmap JRC (cf.IPTS) European Forum on Forward Looking Activities (EFFLA) FP7 – Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities with

both qualitative and quantitative exercises

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Objectives of EU FLA

To anticipate new societal challenges To advise on the main changes that the World and

Europe will have to face in the next decadesTo inspire EU policies by imaginative thoughts To evaluate the economic and social impacts of EU

proposals (ex-ante Impact Assessment)To scan the weak signals and the wild cards including

the potential technological and social breakthroughsTo shape a more sustainable future

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Controversies on EU FLA

Baseline / Reference scenario?Objectivity and bias among experts?Clarity and opacity of models?Conventional thinking and beyond it?

…

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SSH Expert Groups

Three Expert Groups led by DG Research and Innovation (Social Sciences and Humanities) in close cooperation with BEPA:

The World in 2025 – report published in 2009

EuroMed-2030 – report published 2010

Global Europe 2050 – report tbp in 2011 and final conference on 28 November 2011

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SSH research projects

The World and Europe in 2030 (AUGUR) European Foresight Platform (EFP) The evaluation of EU policies (DEMETER) Science, Technology and Innovation (FARHORIZON, SESTI, CIVISTI, VERA) Wild cards and weak signals, radical changes (IKNOW and INFU) Post carbon society (PACT, GILDED, PASHMINA, GLOBAL-IQ) Security and defence (SANDERA) The future of the Mediterranean area (MEDPRO)

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Evolution of world R&D expenditure

Source: European Commission, DG RTD

Note: (China excluding Hong-Kong)

EU - 27

US

Japan

China

South Korea

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2004 2008 2012 2016

PP

S i

n B

illi

on

s €

at

2000 p

rices

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EU population in 2060 (000 people)

Source: DG ECFIN, Ageing Report (H. Bogaert)

The number of people over 65 will double in 50 years (from 85 million in 2008 to 151 million in 2060)

The "oldest old" (85 and over) will almost triple

The share of health expenditures in the EU is expected to increase from 8% of GDP today to 13% in 2060

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Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities (SSH)

New calls for proposals published on 20 July 2011: FP7-SSH-2012-2 (small-medium project < 2.5 M€)

Forward looking tools and methods for answering major societal challenges (including emerging issues, weak signals and disruptive factors)

Deadline: 2 February 2012 at 17:00 (Brussels time)

2012 Calls for Proposals

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More information on

http://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/forward-looking_en.html