1. Erakv 2nd seminar: Introduction of the project and its overall progress
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Transcript of 1. Erakv 2nd seminar: Introduction of the project and its overall progress
T H E P R O J E C T F O R A S S E S S M E N T O F E A R T H Q U A K E D I S A S T E R R I S K F O R T H E K A T H M A N D U V A L L E Y I N N E P A L
JICA Project Team
2nd Seminar-Seismic Risk Assessment
for Kathmandu Valley-
Ryoji Takahashi
11th April 2017
Introduction of the Project and Overall Progress
2
Background and Outline of Project
Main Activities and Progress
Towards Effective Utilization of Project
Outcomes
Contents
3
BackgroundIn 2002, JICA conducted “The Study on Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Kathmandu Valley of Nepal”. Now, social environment has greatly changed since then.
Government of Nepal submitted a request to government of Japan for updating seismic risk assessment and, agreed to implement the project in January, 2015.
On 25 April 2015, Gorkha EQ occurred at the time just about to commence this project and caused severe damage both in and out of KV. However, there is still possibility of earthquakes around KV in the future and need to prepare.
JICA project team and counterparts discussed the new needs after the earthquake and started the project from May 2015 with modification on the project components agreed in June 2015.
Seismic Gap Kathmandu
Possibility of devastating earthquake
Damage of Gorkha Earthquake
First JCC meeting 4
Study Area Hazard and Risk Assessment :Kathmandu Valley
Pilot Activities:Three Pilot Municipalities: Lalitpur Metropolitan City, Bhaktapur Municipality,Budhanilkantha Municipality
Hazard and Risk Assessment :Kathmandu Valley
Pilot Activities:Three Pilot Municipalities: Lalitpur Metropolitan City, Bhaktapur Municipality,Budhanilkantha Municipality
Kathmandu Valley
KathmanduDistrict
LalitpurDistrict
BhaktapurDistrict
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Study AreaThe study area (KV) consists of 2 Metropolitan cities, 16 Municipalities and parts of 2 Rural Municipalities. Total wards: 232
BHAKTAPURBhaktapur MunicipalityChangunarayanMadhyapur Thimi MunicipalitySuryabinayak
KATHMANDUBudhanilkanthaChandragiriDakshinkaliGokarneshwarKageshwori ManoharaKathmandu MetropolitanKirtipur MunicipalityNagarjunaShankharapurTarkeshwarTokha
LALITPURBagmati Rural MunicipalityGodawariKonjyosom Rural MunicipalityLalitpur MetropolitanMahalaxmi
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Objectives and OutputsObjectives: To assess seismic hazard and risk based on scenario earthquakes with consideration of earthquake environment after the Gorkha Earthquake, and to develop disaster risk reduction and management plan for concrete and effective promotion of disaster risk reduction and management measures in the future.
Outputs:Output 1: Seismic hazard assessment based on the latest knowledge and detail
ground model for Kathmandu Valley
Output 2: seismic risk assessment based on the results of seismic hazard assessment, considering several earthquake occurrence scenes (date, time, etc.)
Output 3: Enhancement of knowledge for updating seismic risk assessment in accordance with the social environment change in the future
Output 4: Formulation of build back better recovery and reconstruction plan and disaster risk reduction and management plan making use of the seismic hazard and risk assessment results for pilot municipalities
Understanding Hazard Understanding Hazard
Understanding RiskUnderstanding Risk
Can be updated by Nepali SideCan be updated by Nepali Side
Plan and Implement to Reduce Estimated Damages
Plan and Implement to Reduce Estimated Damages
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WG2: RiskAssessment
WG3: Pilot ActivitiesWG1: Hazard Assessment
Main Activities
BBB Reconstruction Plan for Pilot Municipalities
Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Plan
Seismic Hazard Assessment
Soil Investigation
Emergency Response
Chronicle Survey
Standard Operation Procedures
Building Damage and Inventory Survey
Scenario Earthquake
Seismic Risk Assessment
Evaluation of the Results of 2002 Project
Construction of Cut Model
Safe Kathmandu Campaign
Original Components
Supplement components
8
Project Time Frame
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
131416
16-1 Profile and damage survey16-2 Vision on BBB plan16-3 Policy on BBB plan16-4 Action Plan on BBB plan
2020-1 Determination of scenario earthquakes20-2 Preliminary hazard analysis20-3 Hazard analysis (intensity, landslide, etc.)
2121-1 Building damage and building inventory21-2 Development of building inventory GIS DB21-3 Infrastructure and lifeline data21-4 Population and social economic data21-5 Investigation for risk assessment method
3131-1 Earthquake occurrence occasion31-2 Detail survey of typical buildings31-3 Updating fragility curves of 200231-4 Damage assessment for buildings31-5 Damage assessment for infrastructure31-6 Human damage assessment31-7 Economic damage assessment
3232-1 Development of DRRMP32-2 CB for local governmental officials32-3 CB for community based DRR
33
Seismic risk assessment
Disaster risk reduction and management plan
Development of SOP
Construction of Model HouseUrgent resilient and safe Kathmandu campaignRecovery and reconstruction plan
Seismic hazard analysis
Data collection for seismic risk assessment
2nd Year
1st Year
Time Schedule Activities
2015 2016 2017 20181st Phase 2nd Phase
Implementation Period: May 2015 – April 2018
Seismic Risk Assessment: Feb. 2017Seismic Risk Assessment: Feb. 2017
Seismic Hazard Assessment: June 2016Seismic Hazard Assessment: June 2016
DRRM Plan: Dec 2017DRRM Plan: Dec 2017
SOP: September 2017SOP: September 2017
CBDRRM: Dec 2017CBDRRM: Dec 2017
Reconstruction Plan: May 2016Reconstruction Plan: May 2016
9
Main Activities and Progress
WG1: Seismic Hazard Assessment
WG2: Seismic Risk Assessment
WG3: Pilot ActivitiesStandard Operation Procedure (SOP)
Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Plan
Community-based Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (CBDRRM) Activities
10
Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment
Current Progress:
• All activities completed in February 2017
WG1 and WG2 Activity
Explain in Agenda No. 6Explain in Agenda No. 6
11
Approach of Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment
Earthquake Source
Amplification
Attenuation
Total damage is mainly affected by intensity of ground motion, vulnerability of structure and the number of vulnerable structure 12
Target Items for Seismic Risk Assessment
Building Road Bridge
Water & Sewage Power & Communication Human and Economic Loss
13
Pilot Activities
• Formulation of BBB RR Plans for 3 Pilot Municipalities completed in May 2016
• Formulation of DRRMP, SOP and implementation of CBDRRM Activities are on going
WG3 ActivityFormulation of Standard Operation Procedures (SOP)(Dec 2016 - Sep 2017)
Research existent materials in Nepal and Japan
Nepal
Japan
National Disaster Response Framework (MoHA)
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES (SOPs)National Emergency Operation Center (NEOC)Ministry of Home Affairs (MoHA)
Yokosuka City Fuchu City
Formulation of Standard Operation Procedures (SOP)(Dec 2016 - Sep 2017)
Development First Draft SOP based on existent materials
First draft SOP was developed based on existent materials.
[Table of Contents]1. General Description of Manual2. Mobilization of officials3. Establishment of Emergency Response Head Quarter (ERHQ)4. Disaster Response Activities against Earthquake[Appendix]FORMAT A: Check ListFORMAT B: Disaster Information FormatFORMAT C: List of Evacuee at Evacuation ShelterFORMAT D: Personal Data of Officials
Contents of SOP will be discussed and modified on workshops in 3 municipalities.
Formulation of Standard Operation Procedures (SOP)(Dec 2016 - Sep 2017)
Work Plan
2017
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
SOPGuideline
Workshop/ Meeting
Meetings* MoHA, DAO and 3 Municipals
Last Workshop* Invite MoHA, DAO and 3 Municipalities
Workshops in Lalitpur, Bhaktapur, Budhanilkantha*aim of this workshop is to discuss and modify SOP for localization
First Draft
Modification and localization
Modification and localization
Localization for 3 municipalities
Second Draft
Finalized
Workshops in 3 municipalities will be conducted in this period.
17
Testing stage
MoFALD Local Disaster Risk Management Planning Guideline,
2011
Feedback
Implementation
Revision of Guidelineby Flagship 4 2. Upgrade of Annex : Template
(Table of Contents of Actual LDRMP)according to mainly Risk Assessment and Sendai Framework for DRR
3. Formulation of Technical Guideline to support formulation by Local Bodies
Approval of revised Guideline by National Steering Committee
4. Pilot Activities(LDRMP Formulation for 3 pilot muni.)
Finalization of Guideline
JICA Project Activity
[Separate Document]~May 2017
May~Dec 2017
~Apr 2017
Formulation of Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) Plan with Guideline(Dec 2016 - Dec 2017)
1. Integration of Risk Assessment part
18
Utilization image of Risk Assessment Results for DRR (Summary)
Buildingdamage
Setting TargetValue for DRR
Setting TargetValue for DRR
Considering Countermeasures
to achieve targets
Considering Countermeasures
to achieve targetsReduce the number of
100 50 or more fewer
Reduce the number of Deaths
100 ⇒ 50 or more fewer
Reduce the number of
10,000 3,000
Reduce the number of Evacuees
10,000 ⇒ 3,000
Reduce the number of
2,000 1,000
Reduce the number of Heavy damage building
2,000 ⇒ 1,000
Seismic resistance of housing
Mason training
Building code implementation
Development of Evacuation sites
Securing Stockpiles
LDRMPLDRMP
Result of Risk AssessmentResult of Risk Assessment
Number of death
Target year 2030
Image of the Plan
20162016 20302030
Infrastructure, Lifeline Damage, Economic Loss
You can understand How much seismic resistance of housings
are required
You can understand How much stockpiles are required
Seismic resistance of Schools, etc.You can understand Risk and
can consider the Priority
CBDRRM Activities(Dec 2016 - Dec 2017, Implementation of BBB & DRRM Plan)
• CBDRRM Training for Municipality Officers and Relevant Stakeholders
Step 1 (20-22 Feb 2017)
• CBDRRM Activities in a selected pilot ward in each pilot municipality
Step 2 (Apr – Oct 2017)
• Feedback to the Local DRRM Plans
Step 3 (Nov – Dec 2017)
Flow of the Activities
1. Target Participants: 10 officers and relevant stakeholders who relate to DRRM Activities in each pilot municipality (Total 30)
2. Venue: Bhangeri Durbar Resort, Nagarkot3. Program (3 days)
Know Earthquake mechanism and risksLearn DRRM and CBDRRM incl. 9 Minimum Characteristics of CBDRRM in NepalCBDRRM MappingCBDRRM Planning
Pilot Wards/LocationLalitpur SMC Budhanilkantha Bhaktapur
Ward-8/ Gokul Chaur
Ward-2(former Ward 2 and 3)
Ward-3(former Ward 13 and 16)
Targets of the Activities(*due to restructuring of wards, the target areas were modified)
Step 1: Training for Municipality Officers
Details of the Activities
Step 2: CBDRRM Activities in Pilot Wards
1. Target Participants: 30 persons (members of CDMC, and other relevant residents) in a ward
2. Venue: appropriate place in the selected pilot ward3. Program (3 main events and follow-ups)
1st Workshop (2 days): Learning Risk and DRRM System in Community2nd Workshop (2 days): Formulation of CBDRRM Map3rd Workshop (1 day): Formulation of Action Plan/ DRRM Plan for Community
CBDRRM Step 1: 3-day CBDRRM Training for Municipality Officers and Relevant Stakeholders: 20-22 February 2017
1. Result30 participants from three pilot municipalitiesEnhanced capacities and ownerships of municipality officers on promoting CBDRRM activities in each municipalityCreated a basis for sustainable CBDRRM activities in each municipality with a sound understanding of the importance and needs of the activities of the municipality officers
Lecture by MoFALD Exercise for Community DRR Mapping
Discussion on Action Plan for Promoting CBDRRM
Certificate Distribution by JS of MoFALD
1st Workshop (2 day)Learning Risk and DRRM
System in Community1) Learning Earthquake Hazard and Risks 2) Learning Basics of Disaster Risk Reduction and Management3) Review and Discussion on Community's Current Situation of DRRM and HVCA Assessment
+Follow-up Activities ** (Apr-Jun) (Documentations, etc.)
2nd Workshop (2 days)Formulation of Community-
based DRRM Map1) DRRM Town Watching (Field Survey by Community)2) Community DRRM Mapping3) Discussion on Evacuation Plan
+Follow-up Activities (Jul-Aug) (Finalization of Map, Documentations, etc.)
3rd Workshop (1 day)Formulation of Action Plan/ DRRM Plan for Community
1) Disaster Response Plan for Community (Information Dissemination/ Response Teams/ Equipment and Stocks)2) Discussion on Action Plans for Improving DRRM System and Conditions in Community3) Ward-level DM Planning+Follow-up Activities (Sep-Oct)(Finalization of Plans, Approval procedure, etc.)
9 MCs: No. 2 & 3 9 MCs: No. 3, 4 & 9 9 MCs: No. 5, 6, 7 & 8
Risk Assessment Hazard & Risk Maps Local DRRM Plans
Pre-Coordination: Coordination for Designation of the Participants (CDMC Members + @) 9 MCs*: No. 1
Basic Information
*MCs: Minimum Characteristics of NRRC Flagship 4**Follow-up Activities will be done by the selected members
Feed
back
April (6-7: Lalitpur/ 9-10: Budhanilkantha/tbd: Bhaktapur) June-July August- September
CBDRRM Step 2: CBDRRM Activities in Pilot Wards
March
A Community Activity based on Action Plan (each pilot ward)
22
Effective Utilization of Project Outcomes
Who will utilize the results of the projectStakeholders dealt with Disaster Risk Reduction and Management such as Central and Local Governments, Relevant Organizations including NGOs/INGOs, Research Institutes, Private Sector, Communities, and others are expected to make effective utilization of the results of the Project to reduce damages from the estimation results.
23
How to ensure to take actions by various stakeholders to move forward to implement prevention and mitigation measures
Needless to say but without implementation, the same or the worse tragedy will occur by earthquakes. How to ensure to take actions by various stakeholders are the key. Not to scare people by the result of risk assessment, realize the scale of damages properly, and effective measures need to be proposed having incentives to the implementers.
Dr. Nishikawa, special guest speaker will talk more later!
Dr. Nishikawa, special guest speaker will talk more later!
Effective Utilization of Project Outcomes
24
RemarksScenario Earthquakes are not the prediction of next earthquake.Based on the scenario earthquakes, hazard and risk are assessed for KV to utilize for the purpose of policy making and planning, and others for effective Disaster Risk Reduction and Management efforts.
RemarksScenario Earthquakes are not the prediction of next earthquake.Based on the scenario earthquakes, hazard and risk are assessed for KV to utilize for the purpose of policy making and planning, and others for effective Disaster Risk Reduction and Management efforts.
25
https://www.facebook.com/JICA-Earthquake-Risk-Assessment-PJ-in-KV-Nepal-Community-690728411055174/
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