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Envisioning Futures for theEnvisioning Futures for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

Ellen Hanak Ellen Hanak Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaPublic Policy Institute of California

Jay LundJay LundUniversity of California, DavisUniversity of California, Davis

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Economists:Ellen Hanak, PPICRichard Howitt, UC Davis

Engineers:Jay Lund, UC DavisWilliam Fleenor, UC Davis

Geologist:Jeffrey Mount, UC Davis

Biologist:Peter Moyle, UC Davis

Authored by Interdisciplinary Team

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Major ThemesMajor Themes

Current Delta is unsustainable for almost all Current Delta is unsustainable for almost all stakeholdersstakeholders

Improved understanding of the Delta provides Improved understanding of the Delta provides opportunities for new solutionsopportunities for new solutions

Promising alternatives existPromising alternatives exist

Most Delta users have ability to adaptMost Delta users have ability to adapt

Promising solutions are unlikely to arise from a Promising solutions are unlikely to arise from a stakeholder-only processstakeholder-only process

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OutlineOutline

Why the Delta mattersWhy the Delta matters

California’s Delta crisisCalifornia’s Delta crisis

New thinking about the ecosystemNew thinking about the ecosystem

Some long-term alternativesSome long-term alternatives

Screening of alternativesScreening of alternatives

RecommendationsRecommendations

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The Sacramento-San Joaquin DeltaThe Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

Above sea level

Sea level to -10 feet

-10 feet to -15 feet

-15 feet and below

Exportpumps

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Why the Delta Matters to CaliforniansWhy the Delta Matters to Californians

Water Supply

Recreation

Ecosystem

Housing

Agriculture

Infrastructure

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OutlineOutline

Why the Delta mattersWhy the Delta matters

California’s Delta crisisCalifornia’s Delta crisis

New thinking about the ecosystemNew thinking about the ecosystem

Some long-term alternativesSome long-term alternatives

Screening of alternativesScreening of alternatives

Conclusions and recommendationsConclusions and recommendations

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A Three-pronged CrisisA Three-pronged Crisis

Levees at increasing riskLevees at increasing risk

– Sea level rise and sinking landSea level rise and sinking land

– Floods and earthquakesFloods and earthquakes

Steep declines in many fish speciesSteep declines in many fish species

– Many are “listed”Many are “listed”

– Culprits: invasive species, habitat loss, Culprits: invasive species, habitat loss, pumpspumps

Governing institutions lackingGoverning institutions lacking

– Resurgence of legal actionsResurgence of legal actions

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Emerging Policy ResponsesEmerging Policy Responses

New studies on fish declines and levee risksNew studies on fish declines and levee risks

Emergency funds for levee repairsEmergency funds for levee repairs

““Delta Vision” processDelta Vision” process

Bay-Delta Conservation PlanBay-Delta Conservation Plan

Stakeholders promoting several approachesStakeholders promoting several approaches

– Shoring up levees, peripheral canal, Shoring up levees, peripheral canal, reduced water exportsreduced water exports

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OutlineOutline

Why the Delta mattersWhy the Delta matters

California’s Delta crisisCalifornia’s Delta crisis

New thinking about the ecosystemNew thinking about the ecosystem

Some long-term alternativesSome long-term alternatives

Screening of alternativesScreening of alternatives

RecommendationsRecommendations

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Since 1920s, California Policy Since 1920s, California Policy Has Aimed to Keep the Delta FreshHas Aimed to Keep the Delta Fresh

1945 USBR report

Delta farmers and water exporters benefit from low salinityDelta farmers and water exporters benefit from low salinity

,

,

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In 1940s, Central Valley Project Created In 1940s, Central Valley Project Created “Hydraulic Barrier” for Water Exports“Hydraulic Barrier” for Water Exports

Arrows show movement of fresh water from storage

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Hydraulic Barrier Prevents Seasonal Hydraulic Barrier Prevents Seasonal and Dry-year Salinity Incursionsand Dry-year Salinity Incursions

1870s drought

Summers, 1908-1917

Hydraulic barrier(since 1940s)

Dotted lines show extent of saltwater incursions

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But Static, Freshwater Delta Not Good for But Static, Freshwater Delta Not Good for Native SpeciesNative Species

Native species evolved in a Native species evolved in a fluctuating Deltafluctuating Delta

Alien species have taken hold and Alien species have taken hold and harm native speciesharm native species

Alien species do best with constant Alien species do best with constant salinity (fresh or saline)salinity (fresh or saline)

Restoring fluctuating conditions Restoring fluctuating conditions may be key to native species’ may be key to native species’ survivalsurvival

Overbite clam

Brazilian waterweed

Asiatic clam

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OutlineOutline

Why the Delta mattersWhy the Delta matters

California’s Delta crisisCalifornia’s Delta crisis

New thinking about the ecosystemNew thinking about the ecosystem

Some long-term alternativesSome long-term alternatives

Screening of alternativesScreening of alternatives

RecommendationsRecommendations

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Nine Delta AlternativesNine Delta Alternatives

Freshwater DeltaFreshwater Delta– Two levee-based alternativesTwo levee-based alternatives– Physical salinity barrierPhysical salinity barrier

Fluctuating DeltaFluctuating Delta– Two peripheral canal alternativesTwo peripheral canal alternatives– Armored-island aqueductArmored-island aqueduct

Reduced-exports Delta (*also fluctuating)Reduced-exports Delta (*also fluctuating)– Opportunistic Delta*Opportunistic Delta*– Eco-Delta*Eco-Delta*– Abandoned DeltaAbandoned Delta

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5) South Delta Restoration Aqueduct: 5) South Delta Restoration Aqueduct: A New Peripheral Canal IdeaA New Peripheral Canal Idea

Improves South Improves South Delta and lower San Delta and lower San Joaquin River water Joaquin River water qualityquality

Lower San Joaquin Lower San Joaquin flood bypass for flood bypass for flood control and flood control and ecosystem benefitsecosystem benefits

Main rivers

Delta waterways

Brackish tidal area

Freshwater tidal area

Canal Optional canal

Release facility

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6) Armored-Island Aqueduct: 6) Armored-Island Aqueduct: A Through-Delta SolutionA Through-Delta Solution

Keeps eastern Delta Keeps eastern Delta freshfresh

Allows western and Allows western and central Delta to central Delta to fluctuatefluctuate

Channel to river

Dredged channel

Fortified levee

Potential flooded islands

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8) Eco-Delta: An Example of8) Eco-Delta: An Example of Local Specialization Local Specialization

Allows opportunistic Allows opportunistic pumping, but at pumping, but at lower levelslower levels

Main rivers

Delta waterways

Flooded islands/bypass

Brackish tidal area

Freshwater tidal area

Upland game/waterfowl

Experimental

Wetlands

Possible storage

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OutlineOutline

Why the Delta mattersWhy the Delta matters

California’s Delta crisisCalifornia’s Delta crisis

New thinking about the ecosystemNew thinking about the ecosystem

Some long-term alternativesSome long-term alternatives

Screening of alternativesScreening of alternatives

RecommendationsRecommendations

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Screening CriteriaScreening Criteria

Ecosystem performanceEcosystem performance

Water exportsWater exports

Economic and financial costsEconomic and financial costs

– Focus: water supply and salinityFocus: water supply and salinity

– Tools: models and existing studiesTools: models and existing studies

Other Delta services (qualitative)Other Delta services (qualitative)

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Fluctuating Delta AlternativesFluctuating Delta AlternativesAre Most PromisingAre Most Promising

Alternatives Environmental Performance

Annual Water Exports

Economic and Financial Costs

1. Levees as Usual Poor 0 – 6+ maf ~$2 Billion + failures

2. Fortress Delta Poor

6+ maf

> $4 Billion + lost islands

3. Saltwater Barrier Poor $2 – 3 Billion + lost islands

4. Peripheral Canal Plus Promising -allows Delta to

fluctuate

$2 – 3 Billion + < $70 M/year

5. South Delta Aqueduct $2 – 3 Billion + < $41 M/year

6. Armored-Island Aqueduct

Mixed $1 – 2 Billion + < $30 M/year

7. Opportunistic Delta Promising 2 – 8 maf $0.7 – 2.2 Billion + < $170 M/year

8. Eco-Delta Best? 1 – 5 maf Several $ Billion + < $600 M/year

9. Abandoned Delta Poor 0 $500 Million + ~$1.2 Billion/year

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OutlineOutline

Why the Delta mattersWhy the Delta matters

California’s Delta crisisCalifornia’s Delta crisis

New thinking about the ecosystemNew thinking about the ecosystem

Some long-term alternativesSome long-term alternatives

Screening of alternativesScreening of alternatives

RecommendationsRecommendations

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Steps Needed for a Long-term SolutionSteps Needed for a Long-term Solution

Focus on promising alternativesFocus on promising alternatives

Create technical track to explore solutions with Create technical track to explore solutions with problem-solving R&Dproblem-solving R&D

Enhance regional and statewide representation Enhance regional and statewide representation in Delta land use decisions (e.g. SF BCDC)in Delta land use decisions (e.g. SF BCDC)

Implement “beneficiaries pay” financingImplement “beneficiaries pay” financing

Establish mitigation mechanisms – everyone will Establish mitigation mechanisms – everyone will notnot “get better together”“get better together”

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““No Regrets” Short-term ActionsNo Regrets” Short-term Actions

Emergency preparednessEmergency preparedness

““Do not resuscitate” list for some islandsDo not resuscitate” list for some islands

Delta land useDelta land use

– Flood control guidelines for urbanizationFlood control guidelines for urbanization

– Habitat protectionHabitat protection

Restoration projects for pelagic fish habitatRestoration projects for pelagic fish habitat

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Questions?Questions?

For the full report, research brief, and other For the full report, research brief, and other materials, go to: materials, go to: www.ppic.orgwww.ppic.org