1. Engineers point to socio-political reasons Why challenge is so formidable (Victor) Carbon...
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Transcript of 1. Engineers point to socio-political reasons Why challenge is so formidable (Victor) Carbon...
Today’s agenda
Engineers point to socio-political reasons
Why challenge is so formidable (Victor)
Carbon lock-in science-policy
dilemma Mooney (2)
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1. Delucchi, M.A. and Jacobson, M.Z., “Providing all global energy with wind, water, and solar power, Part II: Reliability, system and transportation costs, and policies,” Energy Policy 39 (2011) 1170–119. Read sections 4 and 5 only.
2. David G. Victor, Global Warming Gridlock, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2011), Chapter 2, “Why global warming is such a hard problem to solve.” (on-line UBC Library)
3. Gregory C. Unruh, “Understanding carbon lock-in,” Energy Policy 28 (2000) 817-830.
4. Chris Mooney, “The Science of Why We Don't Believe Science,” Mother Jones, May/June 2011,
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A vision of clean energy system
“We suggest producing all new energy with [water, wind, and solar] by 2030 and replacing the pre-existing energy by 2050. Barriers to the plan are primarily social and political, not technological or economic. The energy cost in a WWS world should be similar to that today”
Jacobson, M.Z., Delucchi, M.A., Providing all global energy with wind, water, and solar power, Part I: Technologies, energy resources, quantities and areas of infrastructure, and materials. Energy Policy (2010),
Victor’s 3 central political challenges
1. Very deep cuts to GHG emissions are required
Long residence time of CO2 in atmosphere – given rate of emissions stock is hard to reverse
2. Costs immediate, benefits uncertain and distant in time
“time inconsistency problem”3. Global nature of problem creates
spatial inconsistency: local costs, global benefits
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Hoberg’s version: Why climate action is so hard politically
Cost of MitigationBenefits of Mitigation
Relatively certain Highly uncertain
Now Distant in Time
Here Global
Victor’s 3 myths about policy process
Scientist’s myth: scientific research can determine the safe level of global warming
Environmentalist’s myth: global warming is a typical environmental problem
Engineer’s myth: once cheaper new technologies are available, they will be adopted
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Evolution of technical systems
Increasing returns result from Scale economies Learning economies Adaptive expectations Network economies
Sustainable Energy Policy 11
Techno-institutional complex
Not discrete technological artifactsComplex system of technologies
embedded in a powerful conditioning social context of public and private institutions
Technological systems – technological lock-in
Institutional lock-in Private organizations governmentalSustainable Energy Policy 12
Mooney
Deficit Model: “You just don’t understand” more information will resolve conflicts
and produce appropriate policy responseMembers of the public strain their
responses to science controversies through their value systems
Social science helps explain how this works
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Motivated reasoning (Mooney) motivated cognition: unconscious tendency to fit
processing of information to conclusions that suit some end or goal biased information search: seeking out (or
disproportionally attending to) evidence that is congruent rather than incongruent with the motivating goal
biased assimilation: crediting and discrediting evidence selectively in patterns that promote rather than frustrate the goal
identity-protective cognition: reacting dismissively to information the acceptance of which would experience dissonance or anxiety.
Daniel Kahan, “What Is Motivated Reasoning and How Does It Work?, Science and Religion Today May 4, 2011.
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Politics and Science
Policy reflects value judgments, but embodies causal assumptions
Causal knowledge frequently very uncertain, undermining power of science
actors adopt the scientific arguments most consistent with their interests
“science” becomes a contested resource for actors in the policy process, by lending credibility to arguments
the body of credible science bounds the range of legitimate arguments, but only loosely
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Politics and Science (cont)
Scientific controversies are frequently more about underlying value conflicts e.g., conservation vs. development
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A continuum
Science Politics
Regulatory Science
Regulatory Science: Scientific assumptions adopted for the purpose of policy-making
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Regulatory Science Approach Some causal assumptions are better than
others – science helps Some policies are better reflections of society’s
distribution of preferences than others -- democratic institutions help
Avoid: political decisions made by scientists and scientific judgments being made by politicians
Prefer: transparent justification for decisions Reveals boundary where scientific advice ends and
value judgments begins Promotes accountability