1 Division of Science Resources Statistics The Complex National Effects of High- Skilled Migration...

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Division of Science Resources Statistics

The Complex National Effects of High-Skilled Migration

Council for Foreign RelationsNew York, NY

February 18, 2007

Mark RegetsNational Science Foundation: Arlington

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA): Bonn(Affiliations for biographical purposes only)

[email protected] 703-292-7813

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ETHICAL DISCLAIMER:

(No, not the one that says that my employer does not necessarily share my views, although that is also true.)

While it is very useful for policy makers and social scientists to study the effects of the movement of highly-skilled migrants:

• Freedom of movement is a human right that would have positive value even if all economic effects were negative.

• The greatest benefits of migration accrue to the individuals choosing to move across borders.

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National Science FoundationDivision of Science Resources Statistics

Changes in how S&T is done:• More S&T activity of all types is done across

borders– Teams and collaborations physically located in

multiple countries– Both basic research & product development

• Global capacity for S&T growing rapidly in most part of the world.

• S&T capacity much less centralized, U.S. now less than ¼ of world R&D

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Sending Countries: Possible Negatives

• “Brain drain”: lost productive capacity due to at least temporary absence of workers and students with higher skills

• Less support for public funding of higher education

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Highest degree from

foreign university

Any foreign

degree

Foreign secondary

schoolBachelor’s 47.9 49.7 65.8Master’s 26.8 58.6 74.2Professional 49.5 58.5 63.3Doctoral 36.3 78.6 93.0All degree levels 41.4 54.8 69.2

Source: NSF/SRS 2003 National Survey of College Graduates.

Share of college-educated foreign-born individuals in the United States who hold foreign degrees: 2003

(Percentages)

university

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Sending Countries: Possible Positives

• Increased incentive for natives to seek higher skills• Possibility of exporting skills, which reduces risk and raises

expected return of personal education investments• Increase in domestic economic return to skills• Knowledge flows and collaboration• Increased ties to foreign research institutions• Export opportunities for technology• Return of natives with foreign education and human capital• Remittances and other support from diaspora networks

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SOURCES: Thomson ISI, Science Citation Index and Social Sciences Citation Index, http://www.isinet.com/products/citation/; ipIQ, Inc.; National Science Foundation, Division of Science Resources Statistics, Survey of Earned Doctorates (1994–98), special tabulations; and National Science Board, Science and Engineering Indicators, 2006.

Relationship of foreign-born U.S. S&E doctorate recipients to their country's scientific collaboration with United States: 1994–98

graduates and 1999–2003 articles

-2.000

-1.000

0.000

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

0.000 0.500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500

Coauthored articles 1999–2003 (log)

Foreign-born U.S. doctorate holders 1994–98 (log)

Correlation = +0 .66

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Chinese Student Flows: 1985-2005

Source: NSF/SRS analysis of data from the China National Bureau of Statistics

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Stu

dents

leavin

g &

retu

rnin

g

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Rat

io

Students Leaving

Students Returning

Ratio of Returning to Leaving

Ratio of Returning to DomesticPostgraduate Degrees Awarded

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Receiving Countries: Possible Negatives

• Decreased incentive of natives to seek higher skills

• Possibility of displacement of native students from best schools

• Language and cultural barriers between native and immigrant highly skilled workers

• Technology transfers to competitors and to possibly hostile countries

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Relationship of share of foreign-born U.S. S&E doctorate recipients to median salary for all S&E doctorate recipients in same S&E field: 1998–2002 graduates in 2003

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80Foreign-born U.S. doctorate recipients (%)

Correlation = + 0 .67

SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Div ision of Science Resources Statistics, Scientists and Engineers Statistical Data Sy stem (SESTAT) (2003), http://sestat.nsf.gov .

Median salary $ thousands)

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Fixed-effects model estimates of the change in U.S. native S&E graduate enrollment associated with changes in graduate temporary-visa foreign student enrollment

An increase of one fulltime foreign student in a S&E graduate department is associated with:

+ 0.02 fulltime U.S. citizen/perm. minority

+ 0.33 fulltime U.S. citizen/perm. white

- 0.07 full time U.S. citizen/perm. Asian

Model: Departmental level fixed effects controlling for department size in the previous period, dummy variables for year, and changes in the enrollment of other groups.

Data: NSF Graduate Student Survey, 1982-1995

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Receiving Countries: Possible Positives

• Increased R&D and economic activity due to availability of additional highly skilled workers and students.

• Knowledge flows and collaboration. • Increased ties to foreign research institutions.• Export opportunities for technology.• Increased enrollment in graduate programs,

possibly keeping smaller programs alive.

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Trends in the percent foreign-born in science and engineering occupation in the U.S.: 1990-2004

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

All collegeeducated

Bachelor’s Master’s Doctorate

1990 Census

2000 Census

2004 Census ACS

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Number of Postdocs at U.S. Universities by Citizenship Status

SOURCE: NSF/SRS Survey of Graduate Students and Postdocs (GSS) 2005

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Multiple Node Knowledge Network• Increased and more complex flows of

students, workers, and finances

• Increased regional S&T collaboration and links between regions

• Global and regional labor markets for some skills

• Increased importance of individuals with high “betweenness”—those connecting the nodes

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Possible Global Effects• Better international flow of knowledge.• Better job matches through global job search.• Greater job options for workers and researchers.• Greater ability of employers to find rare or

unique skill sets.• Formation of international research or

technology clusters—e.G., Silicon valley, CERN).• Net positive effect on incentives for individual

human capital investments as a result of international competition for scarce human capital.

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Resources:NSF Division of Science Resources Statistics:

www.nsf.gov/statistics/

Science and Engineering Indicators 2006:

www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind06/

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) Discussion Papers

www.iza.org

Mark Regets703-292-7813

[email protected]

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Supplemental

Slides

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Foreign-born proportion of S&E degree holders in the United States: 2003

Source: NSF/SRS SESTAT 2003

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Decade of Ph.D.

Those residing outside the

United States in 1995

Those who had left the United

States between 1993 and 1995

1955–64 13.7 0.81965–74 22.7 1.31975–84 22.2 2.31985–94 19.4 4.1

Note: Data include foreign-born U.S. citizens, permanent residents, and those who expressed definite plans to stay at time of receipt of their degree.

Source: NSF/SRS 1993, 1995 Survey of Doctorate Recipients.

Lower bound estimates of foreign-born individuals with U.S. science and engineering Ph.D.s and initial U.S. employment

working outside the United States in 1995(Percent)

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Is there much of a native-born U.S. Diaspora?

• 485,000 college educated U.S. Citizens found in 2000/2001 censuses of OECD countries (Docquier 2004)

• 1.2 million U.S. Individual tax returns filed abroad (growing at 3.5% annual rate)

• 3 percent of U.S. Native-born Ph.D.s in science and engineering have initial foreign employment

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E(H) = Pm Ef(H) + (1 – Pm) Ed(H)

where

Pm is the subjective individual probability of migration

Ef is the expected value of human capital H in the foreign

labor market

Ed is the expected value of the same human capital in the

domestic labor market

Simple model of expected value of human capital when migration is an option

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Doctorate-holders in U.S. Science and Engineering Occupations by Selected Place of Birth

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000

U.S.-born

All Foreign-born

Asia-10

OECD (ex. U.S.)

EU-15

1990

2000

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(Percent)

Degree field 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003All fields 66 64 63 62 61

Agricultural science 48 47 47 47 46Computer science 71 71 72 72 70Economics 40 39 37 37 36Life science 72 68 67 68 67Mathematics 67 63 62 60 59Physical science 75 74 72 71 69Other social science 39 38 37 37 37Computer/electrical engineering 78 76 75 74 70Other engineering 69 67 67 65 64

SOURCE: Michael Finn, Stay Rates of Foreign Doctorate Recipients From U.S. Universities, 2005, Oak Ridge Insitute for Science and Education (2005).

Percent of 1998 foreign-born recipients of U.S. doctorates working in the United States on a temporary visa (stay rate): 1999–2003

Five-year Stay Rate of 1998 Temporary Visa Ph.D. Recipients

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Top 11 countries with citizens with at least a tertiary-level education residing abroad in OECD countries (2000)

Source: Docquier and Marfouk, International Migration by Educational Attainment (1990-2000), World Bank

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Number Abroad

Percent of Total

AbroadNumber Abroad

Percent of Total Abroad

Number Abroad


Number Abroad


All S&E 13,900 3.3 1,400 7.4 4,300 13.6 19,600 4.1Life Sciences 3,400 2.7 200 5.0 900 12.0 4,500 3.3Math and Comp. Sci. 1,000 4.2 100 4.2 200 10.2 1,200 4.6Physical Sciences 2,200 2.5 300 8.7 800 12.6 3,200 3.3Social Sciences 5,900 4.2 300 7.5 1,200 18.0 7,400 4.9Engineering 1,500 3.0 500 9.1 1,300 13.1 3,300 5.0

Lower Bound Estimates of U.S. Citizens and Permanent Resident Ph.D. Graduates residing outside the U.S.: 1995

Foreign-born with citizenship at time

of Ph.D.Native BornPermanent resident

at time of Ph.D.

Total citizen or permanent

resident at time of Ph.D.

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