1

Development and Climate Change Integration in the domestic water

sector in South Africa

Linking Development and Climate Change

Development and Adaptation Days

Montreal - December 2005

Pierre MukheibirPierre MukheibirEnergy Research Centre, University of Cape TownEnergy Research Centre, University of Cape Town

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Projected Rainfall (downscaled GCMs)

Drying on the west

Wetter on the east

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Rainfall variability in the N-CapeRainfall variability in the N-Cape

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

1971

/01

1972

/03

1973

/05

1974

/07

1975

/09

1976

/11

1978

/01

1979

/03

1980

/05

1981

/07

1982

/09

1983

/11

1985

/01

1986

/03

1987

/05

1988

/07

1989

/09

1990

/11

Monthly rainfall for Calvinia (1971-1990)

Sutherland Rainfall - Winter

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

year

Rai

nfa

ll m

m/m

o

Sutherland Rainfall - Summer

0102030405060708090

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

year

Rai

nfa

ll m

m/m

o

Seasonal variability (1971-2004)

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Groundwater resource utilization Groundwater resource utilization by Local Governments in 2000by Local Governments in 2000

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Karkams

Noupoort

Leliefontein

Riemvasmaak

Bulletrap

Paulshoek

Khubus

Garies

Calvinia

Buffelsrivier

Kenhardt

Spoegrivier

Kommagas

Kheis

Carnarvon

Britstow n

Kammieskroon

Van Wyksvlei

Strydenburg

To

wn

s

% resource utilized

Total towns dependant on groundwater = 75Number utilizing > 80% resource = 19

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Methodology for strategy developmentMethodology for strategy development

Climate VariabilityClimate Variability Climate ChangeClimate Change

Periodic DroughtPeriodic Drought Frequent DroughtFrequent Drought

Short term water Short term water shortagesshortages

Frequent water Frequent water shortagesshortages

Short term Short term strategiesstrategies

Long term Long term strategiesstrategies

Meeting basic Meeting basic development development requirementsrequirements

Filter

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Methodology for strategy developmentMethodology for strategy development

Climate VariabilityClimate Variability Climate ChangeClimate Change

Periodic DroughtPeriodic Drought Frequent DroughtFrequent Drought

Short term water Short term water shortagesshortages

Frequent water Frequent water shortagesshortages

LongLong term term strategiesstrategies

Long term Long term resilienceresilience

Meeting basic Meeting basic development development requirementsrequirements

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Potential strategies Potential strategies (1)(1)

Supply side strategies: Planning:

o Regional water resource planningo Local water resource management and monitoring system o Conjunctive use of surface and groundwater

Relief measures:o Standby relief under critical conditions eg Water tankerso Drought relief and aid funding

Technologies:o Artificial groundwater rechargeo Rainwater harvestingo Desalinationo Rainfall enhancement

Reduction of leaks programme Removal of alien invasives

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Potential strategies Potential strategies (2)(2)

Demand side strategies:

Water restrictions Tariff structures -eg. Block tariffs Education programmes Re use of grey water Reduction of leaks programme Sanitation options:

o Dry sanitation systemso Saline water for toiletso Dual flush toilets

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Screening criteria for assessing the strategiesScreening criteria for assessing the strategies

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

Additonal Yield / saving

Technology required

Additional Capital Expenditure

Additional Running costs

Local Employment

Local Capacity to implement

Acceptability to local community

Impact on local water Resources

Long term applicability

National Gov Local Gov

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Results from simple MCAResults from simple MCA

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

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Recommended Strategies:Recommended Strategies:obstacles and barriers for implementationobstacles and barriers for implementation

Strategy Localcapacity

Capitalexpenditure

O&M expenditure

LowAcceptability

LowEmployment

Technology

Reduction of leaks programmes X X X

Regional water resource planning X X X X

Local water resource management X X X

Conjunctive use of surface & groundwater X X X X

Rainwater harvesting X

Dry sanitation systems X

Education programmes X X

Tariff structures X X

Water restrictions X X

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Thank you

Contact: pierre@erc.uct.ac.za

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Potential for policy interventionPotential for policy intervention

National level:National level: Best placed for Best placed for Supply Side ManagementSupply Side Management Mechanisms to leverage capital financeMechanisms to leverage capital finance Regional and cross catchment planningRegional and cross catchment planning Incentives for water related skills educationIncentives for water related skills education Technical support to local municipalitiesTechnical support to local municipalities

Local level:Local level: Best placed for Best placed for Demand Side ManagementDemand Side Management Demand side management policies Demand side management policies Set appropriate skills criteria for water managersSet appropriate skills criteria for water managers Integration of climate impacts into development Integration of climate impacts into development

plansplans

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Results from simple MCA Results from simple MCA (2)(2)

Reduction of Leaks Programme

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

Combined criteria

Yield/saving

Technology

Cap Ex

O&M exp

Employment

Capacity

Acceptability

Resources

Long term

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Screening criteria for assessing the strategiesScreening criteria for assessing the strategies

1. Additional yield / saving How will the intervention impact on water supply through additional yield and/or savings?

2. Technology required Is the technology for the intervention readily available?

3. Additional capital expenditure

Will the intervention require additional capital expenditure?

4. Additional running costs Will the intervention incur additional running costs?

5. Local employment To what extent will the intervention impact on job creation?

6. Local capacity to implement What level is the institutional capacity currently at with respect to the intervention?

7. Acceptability to local community

What is the consumer acceptability of this intervention in terms of additional cost to them and convenience?

8. Impact on local water resources

What impact will the intervention have on the water resources and the environment in the area?

9. Long term applicability What is the period of impact of the intervention? (short - long term)