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Demonstration of Methodology

Expert Panel Public Meeting

Austin, TexasJanuary 28, 2015

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Agenda

Introductions Overview Preliminary Overall Methodology Demonstration of Methodology

Site Current Model Inputs Hazard Module Damage Module Results

Q&A

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Introductions

Sam Amoroso, Ph.D. P.E., S.E. Forte & Tablada, Inc.

Bob Bailey, Ph.D., P.E. Exponent, Inc.

Bill Coulbourne, P.E. Coulbourne Consulting

Andrew Kennedy, Ph.D. University of Notre Dame

Doug Smith, Ph.D., P.E. Texas Tech University

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Overview

1st Public Meeting: Austin, August 22, 2013

2nd Public Meeting: Corpus Christi, December 10, 2013

3rd Public Meeting: Austin, March 13, 2014

4th Public Meeting: Austin, May 29, 2014

5th Public Meeting: Austin, August 7, 2014

6th Public Meeting: Austin, November 12, 2014

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Preliminary Overall Methodology

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Initial Focus: Residential Slab Only Claims

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Wind Speeds: Hurricane Ike at Landfall

A

C

B

D

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Surge + Wave: Hurricane Ike

Source: ARCADIS U.S., Inc., Highlands Ranch, Colorado 80129

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Inputs for Surge + Wave Vulnerability

Significant Wave Height

Surge Elevation

House Age(in ranges of years)Lowest

Horizontal Structural Member Elevation

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Damage Module

Input Hazard Time Histories

Wind Surge + Wave Construction Features

Output Time of probable collapse from

surge + waves Time Histories of component

damage due to wind

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Demonstration of Methodology: Site

Surviving Structure

Slab-only Structure

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Pictometry™: Aerial View Before Ike

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Pictometry™: Aerial View After Ike

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Current Model Inputs

Roof shape: Gable Roof cover type: Asphalt Shingle Roof slope: 4:12 Roof height: 20 ft. Roof cover age: 9 years Length: 42 ft. Width: 34 ft. Eave height: 17 ft.

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Current Model Inputs (cont.)

Structure primary axis: 60° Terrain exposure: D Overhead garage door: Yes Direction of garage door: 240° Garage panel door width: Single Garage attached: Yes Percent window area: 0-25

Elevation of LowestHorizontal Structural

Member: 14.83 ft. Year Built: 1999

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Damage Module

Construction Features:

Surviving Structure Slab-Only Structure

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Damage Module

Surviving Structure: Time of Probable Collapse

18.24 ft.

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Damage Module

Slab-Only Structure: Time of Probable Collapse

14.83 ft.

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Damage Module

Surviving Structure: Component Damage Time Histories

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Damage Module

Slab-Only Structure: Component Damage Time HistoriesPoint where structure

topples over.

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Damage Module

Gable Roof Zones:

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Damage Module

Wall Zones:

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Results

Surviving Structure: Component Wind DamageTime Roof Cover Roof Panel Wall Cover Wall Panel Windows Doors Garage Dr Roof Frame Interior

9/12/08 13:30 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%9/12/08 14:00 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%9/12/08 14:30 1.0% 0.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%9/12/08 15:00 1.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%9/12/08 15:30 1.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%9/12/08 16:00 1.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

9/13/08 5:00 2.1% 1.1% 2.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%9/13/08 5:30 2.3% 1.2% 2.6% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%9/13/08 6:00 2.7% 1.3% 2.8% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%9/13/08 6:30 2.9% 1.3% 2.9% 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%9/13/08 7:00 3.2% 1.4% 3.2% 0.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%9/13/08 7:30 3.3% 1.4% 4.5% 0.0% 1.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%9/13/08 8:00 4.2% 1.6% 5.1% 0.0% 2.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%9/13/08 8:30 5.6% 1.9% 6.4% 0.0% 3.3% 2.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8%9/13/08 9:00 6.1% 2.0% 8.3% 0.0% 5.6% 5.4% 0.4% 0.0% 1.2%9/13/08 9:30 9.0% 2.5% 9.3% 0.1% 7.0% 7.0% 0.8% 0.0% 2.4%

9/13/08 10:00 10.0% 2.7% 12.4% 0.2% 10.7% 11.6% 1.5% 0.0% 3.4%9/13/08 10:30 16.4% 4.2% 18.1% 0.8% 21.1% 23.0% 9.2% 0.1% 8.6%9/13/08 11:00 16.4% 4.2% 18.1% 0.8% 21.1% 23.0% 9.2% 0.1% 8.6%

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Results

Slab-Only Structure : Component Wind DamageTime Roof Cover Roof Panel Wall Cover Wall Panel Windows Doors Garage Dr Roof Frame Interior

9/12/08 13:30 0.9% 0.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%9/12/08 14:00 0.9% 0.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%9/12/08 14:30 1.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%9/12/08 15:00 1.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%9/12/08 15:30 1.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%9/12/08 16:00 1.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%9/12/08 16:30 1.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%9/12/08 17:00 1.1% 0.8% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%9/12/08 17:30 1.1% 0.8% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%9/12/08 18:00 1.1% 0.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%9/12/08 18:30 1.2% 0.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

9/13/08 4:00 2.6% 1.2% 2.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%9/13/08 4:30 2.6% 1.2% 2.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%9/13/08 5:00 2.6% 1.2% 2.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%9/13/08 5:30 2.8% 1.2% 2.7% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%9/13/08 6:00 2.9% 1.2% 2.9% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%9/13/08 6:30 3.9% 1.4% 3.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%9/13/08 7:00 4.2% 1.5% 3.3% 0.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%9/13/08 7:30 4.6% 1.5% 3.5% 0.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%9/13/08 8:00 4.9% 1.6% 4.7% 0.0% 2.3% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5%9/13/08 8:30 7.1% 1.9% 5.4% 0.0% 3.2% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0%9/13/08 9:00 8.0% 2.1% 8.3% 0.0% 5.6% 5.4% 0.4% 0.0% 1.5%

9/13/08 13:00 20.6% 4.2% 18.2% 0.8% 21.0% 23.1% 14.1% 0.0% 12.0%9/13/08 13:30 20.6% 4.2% 18.2% 0.8% 21.0% 23.1% 14.1% 0.0% 12.0%9/13/08 14:00 20.6% 4.2% 18.2% 0.8% 21.0% 23.1% 14.1% 0.0% 12.0%9/13/08 14:30 20.6% 4.2% 18.2% 0.8% 21.0% 23.1% 14.1% 0.0% 12.0%9/13/08 15:00 20.6% 4.2% 18.2% 0.8% 21.0% 23.1% 14.1% 0.0% 12.0%9/13/08 15:30 20.6% 4.2% 18.2% 0.8% 21.0% 23.1% 14.1% 0.0% 12.0%9/13/08 16:00 20.6% 4.2% 18.2% 0.8% 21.0% 23.1% 14.1% 0.0% 12.0%9/13/08 16:30 20.6% 4.2% 18.2% 0.8% 21.0% 23.1% 14.1% 0.0% 12.0%

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Results

Slab-Only Structure: Roof Cover Damage Variation with Height and Exposure

15 ft 20 ft 25 ft2.3% 2.3% 2.3%7.7% 7.7% 7.7%2.7% 2.8% 3.1%9.5% 10.0% 11.2%3.6% 3.8% 4.1%18.7% 19.6% 21.4%

Mean Roof Height

B

C

D

Exposure

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Ongoing Work

The model will include a provision for variations in component resistance, for example: vinyl siding vs. fiber cement siding; shingles vs. metal roof; etc.

At the request of TDI the Panel is working to include these and other component variations into the model before its first release in 2015.

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Q&A