1 Defense Programs Predictive Science and Program Credibility: Beyond M over U July 2008 Njema Frazier, PhD Acting Deputy Director, Office of Advanced Simulation and Computing 2 Defense Programs Stockpile Stewardship Program Decision-Basis Computing 3 Defense Programs Balancing Act in building Confidence Representing the Science Hydrodynamics Turbulence Equations of State Neutron Chain Reactions Material Properties, Strengths Shocks and Material Interfaces Material Deformation, Plastic Flow Nuclear and Thermonuclear Reactions Electronics. Electrical Systems Energetic Materials, Chemical Reactions Heat Flow Opacities Magneto-hydrodynamics Plasmas Lasers Radiation and Charged Particle Transport Solving the Problems LEPs SFIs Engineering Safety Threat Reduction Secure Transportation ICF Supplying the Tools Codes Models Platforms Vis Capabilities Expertise Facilities QMU Undervalued Tool in building Confidence: A Sound Methodology for identifying, quantifying, understanding, and driving down uncertainties 4 Defense Programs National Decision-Basis Computing 5 Defense Programs Delivery of Validated Tools We Know all the Science present We Understand all the Science present We Understand how all the Science behaves in all our Systems We Understand how all the Science would behave with variations on our Systems We have identified the key Science phenomena present We Understand most of the key Science present We Understand how most of the key Science behaves in our Systems We Understand how most of the key Science would behave with minor variations on our Systems 6 Defense Programs Balancing Act in building Confidence Scientific Approach Systematic Directed Based on Core Methodologies Rigorous testing Sound Results Reproducible Consistent Understandable Well Understood Uncertainties Error Bounds Physical-basis for free parameters Relationship between approximations and exact solutions Identification of Single and Aggregate Uncertainties Measures of Progress Predictive Capability Framework V&V Assessments Milestones External Reviews Reduced Uncertainties in baselines Increased usage Looking to build confidence in Methodologies and Measures in addition to tools, people, and direction. 7 Defense Programs