11

Contextual Value Contextual Value Added and Data Added and Data

For DummiesFor Dummies

The mystery explainedThe mystery explained

22

Objectives – to understandObjectives – to understand

Contextual Value added – how it Contextual Value added – how it is calculated and factors which is calculated and factors which affect it.affect it.

Performance descriptors “good”, Performance descriptors “good”, “satisfactory” and “satisfactory” and “unsatisfactory”.“unsatisfactory”.

How Ofsted form judgements on How Ofsted form judgements on performance data.performance data.

33

Objectives – to understandObjectives – to understand

Key Lessons from data analysis – Key Lessons from data analysis – self evaluationself evaluation

What are we going to do about What are we going to do about it?it?

Links with Performance Links with Performance Management and improvement Management and improvement plans (school and subject)plans (school and subject)

44

School ContextSchool Context

55

School ContextSchool Context

66

School ContextSchool Context

77

School ContextSchool Context

88

School ContextSchool Context

99

School ContextSchool Context

1010

School ContextSchool Context

“bulge” of average students

1111

School ContextSchool Context

“top slicing” of most able students

1212

Value AddedValue Added

Value added is a prediction based on Value added is a prediction based on prior attainment (in SATs (standard prior attainment (in SATs (standard assessment tests) at the end of assessment tests) at the end of primary school (key stage 2 or KS2)primary school (key stage 2 or KS2)

How does progress compare with the How does progress compare with the average progress made by students average progress made by students with the same prior attainmentwith the same prior attainment

1313

Value Added - DefinitionsValue Added - Definitions Attainment, progress and achievementAttainment, progress and achievement AttainmentAttainment – outcomes at KS4 (age 16) – outcomes at KS4 (age 16)

compared with the national averagescompared with the national averages AchievementAchievement – how well a student does – how well a student does

compared with his or her starting pointcompared with his or her starting point ProgressProgress – complicated but is a mix of – complicated but is a mix of

achievement and attainment – a achievement and attainment – a student can achieve well but make student can achieve well but make limited progress towards national limited progress towards national attainment levels (attainment levels (Ofsted are more Ofsted are more interested in progress)interested in progress)

1414

Contextual Value AddedContextual Value Added

Student Outcomes at

Age 16 (end of KS4)

Student Characteristics

School Characteristics

Prior attainment

1515

Socioeconomic and Socioeconomic and Demographic – some factors Demographic – some factors

included in CVAincluded in CVA Ethnicity – Gender – Age within year Ethnicity – Gender – Age within year

groupgroup Special Educational Needs – in care – Special Educational Needs – in care –

mobilitymobility Deprivation indicator – free school Deprivation indicator – free school

mealsmeals English as second languageEnglish as second language Prior attainment (in English and Prior attainment (in English and

Mathematics)Mathematics)

1616

Expected Progress - Expected Progress - SatisfactorySatisfactory

1717

Progress – Value AddedProgress – Value Added

1818

Progress – Value AddedProgress – Value Added

“measure of

value added”

1919

Progress – Less than PredictedProgress – Less than Predicted

“measure of under

performance”

2020

Progress – Broadly Average Progress – Broadly Average RangeRange

2121

Progress - 2008Progress - 2008

2222

Progress - 2008Progress - 2008

Seriously underachievin

g students

2323

Progress - 2008Progress - 2008

Above line is positiv

e value

2424

Progress – Broadly Average Progress – Broadly Average RangeRange

The middle 50% of children

nationally fall into this range

2525

Progress – “Good” Value AddedProgress – “Good” Value Added

2626

Progress – “Good” Value AddedProgress – “Good” Value Added Progress made by

children in top 25%

nationally

2727

Progress – Progress – “Unsatisfactory” Value “Unsatisfactory” Value

AddedAdded

Poor progress made by

children in bottom 25% nationally

2828

Secondary Schools – Secondary Schools – relative relative

performanceperformance

2929

Secondary Schools – Secondary Schools – relative relative

performanceperformance Each 1% strip

contains about 33 schools

3030

Secondary Schools – Secondary Schools – relative relative

performanceperformance “Median” position –

comparing all schools by

progress and achievement

3131

Secondary Schools – Secondary Schools – relative relative

performanceperformance 50%

(percentile) is given a CVA

score of 1000

3232

Secondary Schools – Secondary Schools – middle 50% of middle 50% of all schools is “broadly average all schools is “broadly average

performance”performance”

3333

Secondary Schools – Secondary Schools – middle 50% of middle 50% of all schools is “broadly average all schools is “broadly average

performance”performance”

Moving towards the

“good” schools

3434

Secondary Schools – Secondary Schools – middle 50% of middle 50% of all schools is “broadly average all schools is “broadly average

performance”performance” Moving

towards the “unsatisfactory” schools

3535

Secondary Schools – Secondary Schools – relative relative

performanceperformance

Above 25% are the “good” schools

3636

Secondary Schools – Secondary Schools – relative relative

performanceperformance

Top end – the “outstanding

” schools

3737

Secondary Schools – Secondary Schools – relative relative

performanceperformance Below 25% are

the “unsatisfactory”

schools

3838

Secondary Schools – Secondary Schools – relative relative

performanceperformance Bottom “very

weak” schools – possible “special

measures”

3939

Secondary Schools – Secondary Schools – relative relative

performanceperformance

1025

1005 995

980

4040

Conversion of Grades to Points Conversion of Grades to Points for Calculationsfor Calculations

GCSE GCSE GradesGrades

GCSE GCSE PointsPoints

GCSE GCSE GradesGrades

GCSE GCSE PointsPoints

A*A* 5858 DD 3434

AA 5252 EE 2828

BB 4646 FF 2222

CC 4040 GG 1616

4141

Subject Performance at GCSE in 2009Subject Performance at GCSE in 2009

4242

Subject Performance at GCSE in 2009Subject Performance at GCSE in 2009

58% predicted to get A-C, 76% achieved = significant value added = “good”

8% more students got A-A* than expected – value added but not significant (top end of satisfactory)

4343

Subject Performance at GCSE in 2009Subject Performance at GCSE in 2009

4444

CVA – Individual StudentsCVA – Individual Students

This student is predicted This student is predicted to get 8 GCSEs at grade Cto get 8 GCSEs at grade C

Total points score = 320Total points score = 320 This is the FFT B (median) This is the FFT B (median)

predictionspredictions He gets 320 points He gets 320 points This student achieves 0 This student achieves 0

value added points.value added points.

4545

CVA – Individual StudentsCVA – Individual Students This student is predicted This student is predicted

to get 8 GCSEs at grade B to get 8 GCSEs at grade B from prior attainment.from prior attainment.

Total points score = 384Total points score = 384 This is the FFT B (median) This is the FFT B (median)

predictionspredictions She gets 394 points She gets 394 points What is her value added What is her value added

score?score?

4646

CVA – Individual StudentsCVA – Individual Students She is a girl and she gets She is a girl and she gets

free school meals (FSM)free school meals (FSM) Prediction from prior Prediction from prior

attainment = 384 pointsattainment = 384 points Add 14 points (female) = Add 14 points (female) =

398398 Subtract 22 points for FSMSubtract 22 points for FSM Total prediction = 376Total prediction = 376 Value added = 18 pointsValue added = 18 points