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Transcript of 1 Co-benefits of CDM projects in China CDM and Climate Policy: Multidisciplinary Perspectives MILEN...
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Co-benefits of CDM projects in China
CDM and Climate Policy: Multidisciplinary Perspectives MILEN Workshop 18 November 2009
Holmenkollen Park Hotell, Oslo
Kristin Aunan Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO)
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Outline
• Emissions of CO2 and air pollutants in China
• Air pollution co-benefits of CO2 mitigation
• Co-benefits of China’s current CDM portfolio
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Outline
• Emissions of CO2 and air pollutants in China
• Air pollution co-benefits of CO2 mitigation
• Co-benefits of China’s current CDM portfolio
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0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
USA
EU
Japan
Other developed countries
FSU
China
India
Other developing countries
• China1990: 11% of global emissions
• China 2008: 22%
• Global emissions growth 2007-2008: China’s share was 70%
China dominates global emissions and emissions growth
Myhre et al., 2009
CO2 from fossil fuels (GtC/yr)
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Half of the growth in CO2 towards 2030 may come from China
• ~80% of the growth in emissions 2005-2030 from developing countries
• ~60% from developing Asia
• ~40% from China alone
• (NB: These are BAU scenarios..)
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Power plants
Iron and Steel
Cement
Other industry
Transport
Res idential
NOx
Power plants and industry largest sources of emissions of CO2, SO2, and NOx
Power plants
Iron and Steel
Cement
Other industry
Transport
Residential
CO2
Power plants
Iron and Steel
Cement
Other industry
Transport
Residential
SO2
Peters et al. (2009) based on China Statistical Yearbook
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Outline
• Emissions of CO2 and air pollutants in China
• Air pollution co-benefits of CO2 mitigation
• Co-benefits of China’s current CDM portfolio
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’Co-benefits’: Climate-change and air-pollution links
• Source link: CO2 and the main air pollutants have the same sources
• Air pollutants, especially tropospheric ozone and particles, play an important role in the climate system
• Chemistry: Some air pollutants affect the lifetimes of GHGs
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’Co-benefits’: Climate-change and air-pollution links
• Source link: CO2 and the main air pollutants have the same sources
• Air pollutants, especially tropospheric ozone and particles, play an important role in the climate system
• Chemistry: Some air pollutants affect the lifetimes of GHGs
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Co-benefits include:
• Avoided mortality and morbidity due to exposures to air pollution
• Avoided corrosion to materials and heritage due to acid rain
• Avoided damage to crops and ecosystems due to surface ozone and acid rain
• Avoided costs in air pollution abatement
• Avoided climate disturbance from air pollutants (PM, O3…)
Beijing, november 2007
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Air pollution co-benefits of CO2 mitigation in developing countries are well documented
• US-EPA IES program: – Co-control options accounting for health co-benefits
(Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, India, Mexico, Phillippines, South Korea.. )
• IGES (Institute for Global Env. Strategies):– Research on co-benefits of climate actions in the
Asia-Pacific region
• Clean Air Initiative: Asia
• IIASA (Gains model)
• Academic scholars/publications: – Health and environmental co-benefits of GHG
mitigation often exceed the costs– Air pollutants as a climate forcing (trade-offs!)
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0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
China (O'Connor et al., 2003)
China (Garbaccio et al, 2000)
India (Bussolo and O'Connor, 2001)
Hungary (Aunan et al., 1998)
Chile (Dessus and O'Connor 1999)
Chile (Cifuentes et al., 1999)
USA (Abt Associates, 1997)
LOCAL PROJECTS, CHINA:
(Mestl et al, 2005; Aunan et al., 2004)
Co-generation heat and electr.
Industrial boilers (energy efficiency)
Coal washing
Coal briquettes replace raw coal in cooking/heating
Steel work - low stack sources
Steel work - high stack sources
District heating
Avoided deaths/mtCO2
665
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IPCC AR4 concludes:
“..in all analyzed world regions near-term health co-benefits from reduced air pollution as a result of actions to reduce GHG emissions can be substantial and may offset a substantial fraction of mitigation costs (high agreement, much evidence)”
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Outline
• Emissions of CO2 and air pollutants in China
• Air pollution co-benefits of CO2 mitigation
• Co-benefits of China’s current CDM portfolio
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China by far the largest CDM country
Figure: Volumes of proposed CDM project emissions reductions, through 2012. Source:Point Carbon 2009
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• Draws upon studies on health and environmental co-benefits of CO2 reductions in China (energy-related, potential CDM)
• Exploiting China’s CDM potential (energy): 3,000-40,000 premature deaths avoided each year, and
• 1-45 billion RMB saved due to avoided morbidity and hospitalization, crop loss, material damage…
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A simplified methodology for estimating co-benefits of current Chinese CDM portfolio(Rive and Aunan, 2009, work in progress)
• Statistical sampling from the 1754 active CDM projects in China as of July 1st 2009 (UNEP CDM Pipeline database) – categorized according to project type and geographical location
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CERs from China’s CDM portfolio (2010)
Central18 %
East25 %
Hainan0 %
North25 %
North East12 %
North West8 %
South12 %Zero Emiss ion
Renewables37 %
Biomass (crop res idues in PP)
4 %Waste (e.g. biogas)
1 %Foss i l fuel switch
7 %
Coal bed methane
8 %
F-Gas21 %
Cement0 %
N2O9 %
Energy effi ciency
(Own generation at
plant level )12 %
Energy effi ciency (Supply-s ide and
Industry)1 %
Forestry0 %
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• Sample from the 1754 active CDM projects in China as of July 1st 2009 (UNEP CDM Pipeline database) – categorized into project type and geographical location
• From information in the Project Design Document and emission factors in GAINS-Asia database: co-abatement rate for SO2, PM2.5, and Nox re estimated
A simplified methodology for estimating co-benefits of current Chinese CDM portfolio(Rive and Aunan, 2009, work in progress)
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Co-control rate for project types
(Based on Rive and Aunan, 2009, work in progress)
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Cement
Coal bed methane
Waste
Zero Emission Renewables
Biomass PP (crop residues etc)
Fossil fuel switch
Energy eff. (Own production at plant level)
Energy eff. (Supply-side and Industry)
tSO2/ktCO2
tNOx/ktCO2
tPM2.5/ktCO2
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Zero Emiss ion Renewables
49 %
Biomass6 %
Waste0 %
FF Switch23 %
Fugitive3 %
F-Gas0 %
Cement0 % N2O
0 %
EE Own Generation17 %
EE Supply-s ide and Industry
2 % Forestry0 %
SO2
Zero Emiss ion Renewables
63 %Biomass7 %
Waste0 %Foss i l fuel switch
1 %
Coal bed methane2 %
F-Gas0 %
Cement0 %
N2O0 %
Energy effi ciency (Own generation at
plant level )19 %
Energy effi ciency (Supply-s ide and
Industry)8 %
Forestry0 %
NOx
Zero Emiss ion Renewables
47 %
Biomass10 %
Waste0 %
Fossi l fuel switch22 %
Coal bed methane2 %
F-Gas0 %
Cement0 %
N2O0 %
Energy effi ciency (Own generation at
plant level)16 %
Energy effi ciency (Supply-s ide and
Industry)3 %
Forestry0 %
PM2.5Total offsets of air pollutants (2010)
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Total offsets: Annual CO2 reductions and co-abated air pollution
• CER in 2008: ~2% of China’s CO2 emissions from fossil fuels
• SO2 reduction from CDM in 2010: ~20% of China’s targeted SO2 reduction in 11th five year plan
• PM2.5 and NOx: Small share of total emissions, but large co-benefits0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
CER Generation (MtCO2eq)
SO2 Offsets (ktSO2)
PM Offsets (ktPM2.5)
NOx Offsets (ktNOx)
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A simplified methodology cont., health (premature mortality)
• Assume an average 0.10 avoided deaths per tPM2.5 for energy related ‘CDM type projects’ in China (from Vennemo et al. 2006). This is 2.6 times the figure estimated for general PM2.5 reductions in Europe in the CAFE Programme
• Adjust according to project type (ie. height and dispersion of emission – ’intake fraction’ (from Ho and Nielsen, 2007) and region (i.e. population density (from Tan et al. 2008)
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Avoided deaths rate for project types and regions Aggregate results for five types of offsets: Grid offsets; Point
sources (biomass+non-biomass); Transport; Biomass open burning
(Based on Rive and Aunan, 2009, work in progress)
-0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35
Cement
Coal bed methane
Waste
Zero Emission Renewables (hydro, wind..new PP)
Biomass (crop residues in PP)
Fossil fuel switch
Energy eff. (Own production at plant level)
Energy eff. (Supply-side and Industry)
Avoided deaths from reduced PM2.5 exposure/tCO2
South
North West
North East
North
Hainan
East
Central
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A simplified methodology cont., agricultural crop loss
• A reduced form model for the NOx→surface ozone → crop loss link for China based on Aunan et al. (2000) was applied to estimate avoided crop loss from a nationwide CO2 tax in China in Vennemo et al. (2009):
Average avoided crop loss per ktNOx associated with a CO2-tax: 0.026 mill Yuan (2005)/tNOx
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-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Cement
Coal bed methane
Waste
Zero Emission Renewables (hydro, …
Biomass (crop residues in PP)
Fossil fuel switch
Energy eff. (Own production at plant …
Energy eff. (Supply-side and Industry)
Health benefit
Avoided crop loss
Co-benefit rate of China’s CDM portfolio 2010 (€/tCO2eq)
(Based on Rive and Aunan, 2009, work in progress)
CER cost ~10-15 Euro/tCO2eq
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Sensitivity: Use of iF weighting reduces the health damage estimates; use of geographical weighting enhances them) Figure: No weighting
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Cement
Coal bed methane
Waste
Zero Emission Renewables (hydro, wind..new PP)
Biomass (crop residues in PP)
Fossil fuel switch
Energy eff. (Own production at plant level)
Energy eff. (Supply-side and Industry)
Health benefit
Avoided crop loss
Euro/tCO2eq
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Total benefit (avoided deaths and crop loss) of CDM in China (2010): 14 billion RMB (~1.4 bill €)
Zero Emiss ion Renewables
55 %
Biomass8 %Waste
0 %
FF Switch10 %
Coal bed methane2 %
F-Gas0 %
Cement0 %
N2O0 %
EE Own Generation
18 %
EE Supply-s ide and Industry
7 %
Forestry0 %
Total benefit (RMB)
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Value of co-benefits vs value of CERs
-5 0 5 10 15 20
Zero Emiss ion Renewables
Biomass
Waste
FF Switch
Coal bed methane
F-Gas
Cement
N2O
EE Own Generation
EE Supply-s ide and Industry
Forestry
Value of CER (bill RMB)
Health and crop co-benefit (bill RMB)
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Conclusions• Energy related CDM projects in
China bring substantial health and environmental co-benefits, on average worth maybe ~1/3 of the CERs’ value
• Energy efficiency in industry and power production has the largest co-benefit rate per ton CO2
• Zero-emissions renewables (wind, new solar and hydro..) currently bring the largest co-benefits
• PDD currently not required to provide AP impacts – perhaps they should?