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Climate recap and outlookClimate recap and outlook

Nate Mantua, PhDUniversity of Washington

Center for Science in the Earth System - Climate Impacts Group

Kelso, WA October 3, 2006

Nate Mantua, PhDUniversity of Washington

Center for Science in the Earth System - Climate Impacts Group

Kelso, WA October 3, 2006

The CSES - Climate Impacts GroupThe CSES - Climate Impacts Group

•Goal: help the Pacific Northwest become more resilient to climate variations and climate change

• Supported by NOAA Climate Program Office as part of the Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) program

•Goal: help the Pacific Northwest become more resilient to climate variations and climate change

• Supported by NOAA Climate Program Office as part of the Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) program

http://cses.washington.edu/cig/

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global temperatures continue to run highglobal temperatures continue to run high

http://www.ncdc.noaa.govhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov

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The pattern is globalThe pattern is global

http://www.ncdc.noaa.govhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov

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Current droughtCurrent drought

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Accumulated Precip for the past yearAccumulated Precip for the past year

Source:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/

northwest_1yrprec.shtml

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Accumulated Precip for the past yearAccumulated Precip for the past year

Source:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/

northwest_1yrprec.shtml

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Accumulated Precip for the past yearAccumulated Precip for the past year

Source:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/

northwest_1yrprec.shtml

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Accumulated Precip for the past yearAccumulated Precip for the past year

Source:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/

northwest_1yrprec.shtml

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Daily TemperaturesDaily Temperatures

+0.90ºC+0.90ºC +0.81ºC+0.81ºC

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2006 snow pack2006 snow pack

• Warm weather in May started a rapid melt of the PNWs abundant snow pack

• Warm weather in May started a rapid melt of the PNWs abundant snow pack

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Our hot-dry summerOur hot-dry summer

• For OR-ID-WA, May-June-July 2006 was warmest on record (back to 1895)

• June-July-August was 3rd warmest on record

• For OR-ID-WA, May-June-July 2006 was warmest on record (back to 1895)

• June-July-August was 3rd warmest on record

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28-day mean stream flow from the USGS28-day mean stream flow from the USGS

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Oct 1st estimated soil moisture percentilesOct 1st estimated soil moisture percentiles

• Courtesy of Andy Wood, University of Washington, data and images are available at

http://www.hydro.washington.

edu/forecast/monitor

• Courtesy of Andy Wood, University of Washington, data and images are available at

http://www.hydro.washington.

edu/forecast/monitor

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Last year’s outlookLast year’s outlook

• The ENSO outlook: La Nada (“normal”)

• PNW climate outlook: odds favoring a “warm” winter and spring

• The ENSO outlook: La Nada (“normal”)

• PNW climate outlook: odds favoring a “warm” winter and spring

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IRI ENSO Forecast SummaryIRI ENSO Forecast Summary

• Forecasts from October 2005 called for Nino34 ranging from -0.2 to +0.6, with an average of ~+0.2

• Forecasts from October 2005 called for Nino34 ranging from -0.2 to +0.6, with an average of ~+0.2

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/

SST_table.html#figure

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Oct 12, 2005 NOAA NCEP ENSO forecastsOct 12, 2005 NOAA NCEP ENSO forecasts

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/ensoforecast.html

2020

Nov-Mar 2006 SST anomalies: a mild La Niña for the Pacific

Nov-Mar 2006 SST anomalies: a mild La Niña for the Pacific

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Last year’s forecast (from Oct 20)Last year’s forecast (from Oct 20)

DJF temp 2005-06

FMA temp 2006

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Last year’s precipitation forecasts for 2005-2006: issued Oct 20 2005Last year’s precipitation forecasts for 2005-2006: issued Oct 20 2005

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The forecastThe forecast

Cartoon obtained from:http://www.cartoonstock.com/directory/c/crystal_ball.aspCartoon obtained from:http://www.cartoonstock.com/directory/c/crystal_ball.asp

Forecasts … ?

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Global Ocean Surface Temperatures: July 2-September 30 2006Global Ocean Surface Temperatures: July 2-September 30 2006

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The tropical ocean is warmThe tropical ocean is warm

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/l

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El Niño is simmeringEl Niño is simmering

• Tropical ocean temperatures have been warmer than average since mid-May, and have already crossed the “El Niño” threshold

• Tropical ocean temperatures have been warmer than average since mid-May, and have already crossed the “El Niño” threshold

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The latest ENSO forecastsThe latest ENSO forecasts

See http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSOSee http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO

European Center

NOAA NCEP

Forecast summaries

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Average El Niño winter precip: 1916-2003Average El Niño winter precip: 1916-2003

• Dry on the western, wetter slopes, slightly wet or near average for the “rainshadow” areas

From http://www.cses.washington.e

du/cig/maps

• Dry on the western, wetter slopes, slightly wet or near average for the “rainshadow” areas

From http://www.cses.washington.e

du/cig/maps

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Pacific Ocean Outlook SummaryPacific Ocean Outlook Summary• Current forecasts rate weak-to-moderate El

Niño as most likely situation for 2006/07• PDO: A simple forecast with skill relies on

“PDO persistence + ENSO influence” (see

Newman et al. (2003), J. Climate)• Expect weak warm phase PDO conditions for 2006/7• PDO = +0.3 to +0.8 st devs for Nino34 = +0.5 to +1.5

• A Note on Last year…

• Current forecasts rate weak-to-moderate El Niño as most likely situation for 2006/07

• PDO: A simple forecast with skill relies on “PDO persistence + ENSO influence” (see

Newman et al. (2003), J. Climate)• Expect weak warm phase PDO conditions for 2006/7• PDO = +0.3 to +0.8 st devs for Nino34 = +0.5 to +1.5

• A Note on Last year…

(July-June averages)

Forecast Observed

Nino3.4 index -0.2 to +0.6 -0.14PDO index +0.2 to +.6 +0.12

NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006

OND precip JFM precip

http://cpc.ncep.noaa.govhttp://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

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http://cpc.ncep.noaa.govhttp://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006

OND temperature JFM temperature

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The Bottom lineThe Bottom line

• a weak to moderate El Niño is likely for the next 2-3 seasons•because of trends and expectations for a weak to moderate intensity El Niño, above-average fall/winter/spring temperatures are likely• El Niño also tilts the odds in favor of a dry fall/winter and below average end-of-season snow pack

• a weak to moderate El Niño is likely for the next 2-3 seasons•because of trends and expectations for a weak to moderate intensity El Niño, above-average fall/winter/spring temperatures are likely• El Niño also tilts the odds in favor of a dry fall/winter and below average end-of-season snow pack

See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov