1 Climate Change and Water Working Group Short-Term Water Management Decisions User Needs for...

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Climate Change and Water Working GroupShort-Term Water Management DecisionsUser Needs for Improved Climate, Weather, and Hydrologic Information

WSWC Workshop on Extreme Weather Events: Science, Planning and Preparedness– July 30, 2012, San Diego, CA

David Raff, PhD, PE (USACE)Levi Brekke, PhD, PE (Reclamation)Kevin Werner (NOAA-NWS)Andy Wood (NOAA-NWS)Kathleen White (USACE)

Facilitating Guidance Development(e.g., host workshops)

Identifying User Needs and Strategizing Science

Response

Circular 1331

LTdoc vs. STdocUser Need Category “Look-ahead” Time

Scale of Water Resources Planning

Relevant Climate, Weather and Hydrology Information

Short-Term (ST) <5 years(most decisions <1 year)

Spatial: catchment resolution and up to large region domainTime: sub-daily to monthly resolution, from observed history to predicted future (days to seasons)

Long-Term (LT >5 years(many decisions apply for multiple decades)

Spatial: same as aboveTime: sub-daily to multi-annual, from paleo/observed history to projected future (decades to century)

A central part of climate change adaptation is doing a better job dealing with Extremes.

Salt Lake City TribuneJune 2011

New York TimesOctober 2010

October 2010

ST Decisions: They’re interconnected (1) address different objectives, (2) made at different time-

resolutions, (3) revisited on different update cycles.

Recursiveness of WRM decision-making influences value of information

Monitoring and forecasts of ST climate,

weather, and hydrology

• Consolidate the Hydroclimate Information Needs of the Water Management Community– Needs related Knowledge, Methods, Tools– …relative to state of Information Services– …and Management use of these Services

• Inform the Scientific Community• Teamwork• Flexible and Inclusive

STdoc Objectives

Use and Needs Assessment: Questions• What do we use?

– Was the product obtained?

Draft, Preliminary Results


– Was the product obtained?– For cases where the product was

obtained, for which outlook resolution(s) does it apply?

– … and does it influence outlook-related Decisions?



– Was the product obtained?– For cases where the product was

obtained, for which outlook resolution(s) does it apply?

– … and does it influence outlook-related Decisions?

• What other products have we piloted, but did not adopt?

• Wish List: new products or services?


Use and Needs Assessment: Distribution

• Ask USACE & Reclamation operations units about their use of NWS, NRCS and USGS products

– 16 products considered, monitoring to prediction

– USACE: 41 responses (all Divisions represented)

– Reclamation: 22 responses (all Regions represented)


Pilot/No-Adopt Example

• Reclamation (Pacific Northwest response)– longer lead water supply forecasts• ENS0-based, teleconnections-based

– Re: ENSO-based: “big busts … in the last ten years” (e.g., 2001) “hard to believe and operate reservoir with this kind of uncertainty”

– “anything that can be done to give a more believable outlook of the winter snowpack building period would be useful.”


Identifying Draft Needs

• Focused on Operators’ responses to: – What other products have we piloted, but did not adopt? – Wish List: new products or services?

• Needs interpreted under four emergent themes: 1. Monitoring2. Forecasting3. Understanding on Product Relationships and Utilization

in Water Management4. Information Services Enterprise

Summary of Needs: MonitoringSub-Category Label Need Statement

General M1 Sustained support for monitoring networks that provide observations of weather and hydrologic conditions.

Precipitation M2 Expanded networks of weather stations in water management regions that are currently served by relatively low station density.

Snowpack M3 More interactive snow analysis products characterizing basin-distributed snow-covered area and snow-water equivalent

M4 Expanded networks of snow-observing stations in the Central and Eastern United States.

Streamflow M5 Preserving and expanding networks of streamflow observations with a focus on streams and rivers that are currently ungauged.


Summary of Needs: ForecastingSub-Category Label Need Statement

General F1 Enhanced suite of hydrologic predictions spanning lead -times of days to seasons and consistent with the continuum of weather to climate forecast products.

Precipitation, supporting Fine Resolution Outlooks

F2 More reliable quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) on lead times of hours to days.

F3 Improved precipitation forecasts for landfalling storms in coastal areas.

Streamflow, supporting Fine Resolution Outlooks

F4 Enhanced streamflow predictions on lead times of hours to days, particularly during storm events.

Streamflow, supporting Med. Resolution Outlooks

F5 Enhanced streamflow predictions on lead times of days to weeks, particularly during the snowmelt season

Runoff Volume, supporting Coarse Resolution Outlooks

F6 Improved anticipation of runoff volumes during lead times of months to seasons.

Water Level F7 Enhanced prediction products characterizing potential water levels during storm events.

Other Hydroclimate F8 Multi-variate suite of climate to hydrologic predictions that comprehensively characterizes the state and evolution of basin hydrologic conditions on lead times of days to seasons.


Summary of Needs: Understanding on Product Relationships and Utilization in Water Management

Sub-Category Label Need Statement

Information on Product Development and Qualitative Attributes

U1 More detailed meta-information describing product skill, reliability, and development.

Information Synthesis U2 Guidance on how to synthesize available hydroclimate information relative to its collective applicability to water management situations.

Education on Water Management and Forecasting Principles

U3 Training resources on water management principles spanning multiple time-scales.

U4 Training resources on probabilistic forecasting principles and risk-based decision-making.


Summary of Needs: Information Services EnterpriseSub-Category Label Need Statement

Product Maintenance E1 Support product maintenance and evolution to accommodate new observations and research developments.

Product Format E2 Develop product deployment formats that interface more readily with information systems commonly used in the water management community.


Review and Feedback

• Distributed Draft STdoc (www.ccawwg.us) on 23 May 2012; comments received June/July– Responses received from non-Federal entities (or staff*)

• Association of State Dam Officials• CA DWR / WSWC (Thanks Jeanine!)• CO WCB• Family Farm Alliance• Northwest Power and Conservation Council (*)• Oregon Water Resources Congress• Salt River Project• Southern Nevada Water Authority (representing MWD, CAP)• Water Utilities Climate Alliance

– 5 Federal responses (^ = multiple offices)• NOAA^, Reclamation^, USACE^, EPA, NRCS

Status and Next Steps

• Add chapter that summarizes feedback– Less feedback on STdoc than LTdoc … not sure if we plan to

synthesize gap “priorities” for the summary chapter.– In any case, we’ll add appendix that contains unaltered

feedback, including priorities from respondents who provided them.

• Prepare final draft for formatting/editing

• Aiming to distribute 30 September 2012

www.ccawwg.usQuestions?

• USACE: David Raff ([email protected]), Kathleen White

• NWS: Kevin Werner (CBRFC), Andy Wood (NWRFC)

• Reclamation: Levi Brekke ([email protected])

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