1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft,...

36
1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compoundin and discounting and to provide examples of real life applications

Transcript of 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft,...

Page 1: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

1

Chapter 4: Time Value of Money

Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc.

ObjectiveExplain the concept of compounding

and discounting and to provide examples of real life

applications

Page 2: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

5

Compounding: Future Value of a Lump Sum

niPVFV )1(* FV with growths from -6% to +6%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Years

Fu

ture

Va

lue

of

$1

00

0

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%-6%

Page 3: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

10

The Frequency of Compounding

Annual Percentage Rate (APR) Effective Annual Rate (EFF): The

equivalent interest rate, if compounding were only once a year.

m

mAPR

EFF )1(1

Page 4: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

11

Effective Annual Rates of an APR of 18%

Annual Percentage Rate

Frequency of Compounding

Annual Effective Rate

18 1 18.00 18 2 18.81 18 4 19.25 18 12 19.56 18 52 19.68 18 365 19.72

Page 5: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

12

The Frequency of Compounding

Note that as the frequency of compounding increases, so does the annual effective rate

What occurs as the frequency of compounding rises to infinity?

111

APRm

me

mAPR

LimEFF

Page 6: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

13

The Frequency of Compounding

11*

11

11

1

1

m

m

EFFmAPR

EFFm

APR

m

APREFF

m

Page 7: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

14

The Frequency of Compounding

Annual Effective Rate

Compounding Frequency

Annual Percentage Rate

12 1 12.00 12 2 11.66 12 4 11.49 12 12 11.39 12 52 11.35 12 365 11.33 12 Infinity 11.33

Page 8: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

15

Annuities

A level stream of Cash Flows or Payments

Immediate Annuity: The Cash Flows start immediately.

Ordinary Annuity: The Cash Flows start at the end of the current period.

Page 9: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

16

Derivation of PV of Ordinary Annuity Formula

nn i

pmt

i

pmt

i

pmt

i

pmt

i

pmtPV

111

11

13

21

Page 10: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

17

Derivation of PV of Ordinary Annuity Formula

}

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1{*

13

21

nn iii

iipmtPV

Page 11: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

18

PV of Ordinary Annuity Formula

n

n

iipmt

ii

pmt

PV

1

11*

}1

11{*

Page 12: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

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Annuity Formula: PV of Immediate Annuity

}1)1{(*

)1(*}11{*

)1(*

1 n

n

ordimm

iiipmt

iiipmt

iPVPV

Page 13: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

20

Derivation of FV of Annuity Formula

11*

1*1

11*FV

sum) (lump 1*FV

annuity) (ord. 1

11*

n

n

n

n

n

iipmt

iii

pmt

iPV

iipmt

PV

Page 14: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

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Perpetual Annuities / Perpetuities

Recall the annuity formula:

niipmt

PV1

11*

• Let n -> infinity with i > 0:

ipmt

PV

Page 15: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

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Alternative Discounted Cash Flow Decision Rules

1. NPV rule: the NPV is the difference between the present value of all future cash inflows minus the present value of all current and future cash outflows. Accept a project if its NPV is positive.

Page 16: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

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DCF rules

Example: You have the opportunity to buy a piece of land for $10,000. You are sure that 5 years from now it will be worth $20,000. If you can earn 8% per year by investing your money in bank, is this investment in the land worthwhile?

Page 17: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

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NPV rule solution

03612$

612,13$000,10$08.1

000,20$000,10$

5

NPV

Page 18: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

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Alternative Discounted Cash Flow Decision Rules

2. FV rule: Invest if the future value of the investment is larger than the future value that can be obtained from the next best alternative.

Page 19: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

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FV rule solution

000,20$693,14$

08.1000,10$ 5

FV

Page 20: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

27

Alternative Discounted Cash Flow Decision Rules

3. IRR rule: The IRR is the discount rate at which the NPV is zero. Invest if the IRR is greater than the opportunity cost of capital.

Page 21: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

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IRR rule solution

%8%87.14

)1(

000,20$000,10$

5

i

i

Page 22: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

29

Alternative Discounted Cash Flow Decision Rules

4. Choose the investment alternative with fastest payback.

Page 23: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

30

Payback rule solution

5908.1

000,20$000,10$

n

n

Page 24: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

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Loan Amortization

The process of paying a loan principal gradually over its term

Example: $100,000 mortgage loan, APR: 9%,

repaid in 3 annual installments pmt=? pmt=$39504.48

nii

pmtPV

1

11*

309.1

11*

09.0100000

pmt

Page 25: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

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Loan Amortization

First Year: Interest: (0.09)(100000)=9000 pmt: 39504.48 principal: 30504.48 Outstanding Balance: 69494.52

Page 26: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

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Loan Amortization

Second Year: Interest: (0.09)(69494.52)=6254.51 pmt: 39504.48 principal: 33250.97 Outstanding Balance: 36243.54

Page 27: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

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Loan Amortization

Third Year: Interest:(0.09)(36243.54)=3262 pmt: 39504.48 principal: 36244 Outstanding Balance: 0

Page 28: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

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Amortization of Principal

0.00

50000.00

100000.00

150000.00

200000.00

250000.00

300000.00

350000.00

400000.00

450000.00

0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 264 288 312 336 360

Months

Ou

tsta

nd

ing

Bal

ance

Page 29: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

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Percent of Interest and Principal

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 264 288 312 336 360

Months

Per

cen

t

% Interest

% Principal

Page 30: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

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Computing NPV in Different Currencies

In any TVM calculation, the cash flows and the interest rate must be

denominated in the same currency.

Page 31: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

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Inflation and Future Values

Example: At age 20 you save $100 and invest it at a dollar interest rate of 8% per year, and you do not take it until age 65. If the inflation is estimated 5% per year, how much will you have accumulated in the account at that time in terms of real purchasing power?

Page 32: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

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Solution 1:

355$

02857.1100$

)1(

02857.11

)(1

)(.1)(1

45

FVreal

RPVFVreal

R

iInflation

rratenomRratereal

n

Page 33: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

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Solution 2:

355$985.8

192,3$.

985.8

05.145

192,3$

08.1100$45.

45

45

FPL

FVnomFVreal

yearsinlevelprice

yearsinFVnom

Page 34: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

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Inflation and Present Values

Example: Your daughter is 10 years old, and you are planning to open an account to provide for her college education. Tuition for a year of college is now $15,000. How much must you invest now in order to have enough to pay for her first year’s tuition 8 years from now, if you think you can earn a rate of interest that is 3% more than the inflation rate of 5%?

Page 35: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

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Solution:

Wrong:

841.11$03.1

000,15$8

PV

104.8$08.1

000,15$8

PV

Page 36: 1 Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting.

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Inflation and Present Values

Never use a nominal interest rate when discounting real cash flows or a real interest rate when discounting nominal cash flows.