DSD-INT 2016 Keynote Lecture 2016: From global to local: the latest developments - Verlaan
1 Challenge the future Onderhouden of Nieuwbouwen Prof Han Vrijling/ir drs Jules Verlaan.
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Transcript of 1 Challenge the future Onderhouden of Nieuwbouwen Prof Han Vrijling/ir drs Jules Verlaan.
![Page 1: 1 Challenge the future Onderhouden of Nieuwbouwen Prof Han Vrijling/ir drs Jules Verlaan.](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110400/56649dbf5503460f94ab3215/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
1Challenge the future
Onderhouden of NieuwbouwenProf Han Vrijling/ir drs Jules Verlaan
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2Challenge the future
Contents
• Theory of Maintenance• Maintenance in Port Engineering• Life cycle cost• Economic life cycle approach• Life cycle approach to systems• Conclusions
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3Challenge the future
Mechanical Engineering
Maintenance• Inspection• Repair
• Strategies• Corrective• Failure Repair
• Preventive• Inspection Repair
• Working hours• State
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4Challenge the future
“bath tub” curvebased on the observation of many actual failures
conditional failure rate h(t) = f(t)/{1- F(t)}
Condit
ional
failu
re r
ate
Time
New Old
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5Challenge the future
Hydraulic and Port Engineering
• Corrective maintenance• Is not advised in view of the risk involved: partial closure
of the port
• Preventive maintenance• Time based• Use based• Load based• Resistance based
w
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6Challenge the future
Conditional failure rate Hazard rate
• Pr {R<S} in year n, given survival to n• No deterioration of R
Sea dike
Height dike
Stays the same
If “it” worksfailure rate is dropping
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7Challenge the future
Are good deterioration models available?
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8Challenge the future
Dike settlement
• S.L.S. h0-A.Int = h(t)• U.L.S. H(t)-HW
overtopping
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9Challenge the future
Channel siltation
• S.L.S. d0 - zi = d(t) random walk
• U.L.S. d(t) - dship grounding
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10Challenge the future
Value of inspection
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11Challenge the future
The life cycle cost problem
Minimize total cost:•Investment•Inspection•Repair•Risk = pfailure x Consequence
Ctotal = Cinvest + Cinsp + Crepair + pfail x C
Minimize PV{Ctotal}
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12Challenge the future
Capital dredging → InvestingEcho sounding → InspectionMaintenance d. → RepairPr(grounding) → Risk
Dredging cycle2-5 years
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13Challenge the future
The economic life cycle problem
More alternatives:1. Repair old structure2. Build new structure
Minimize total cost!
Economic lifetime < Technical lifetime
New structure Old structureWages WagesFuel FuelMaterial MaterialInspection InspectionRepair RepairDepreciation -Interest -Insurance (risk) Integral cost new < Variable cost old
Technical lifetime
Economic lifetim
e
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14Challenge the future
Economic life cycle approach
Economic point of view:A RevenueB Cost
Not only costs
New structure Old structure
Revenuenew Revenueold
Integral costnew Variable costold
Profitnew > Profitold
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15Challenge the future
Economic life cycle approach
Planned economic life time>
Real economic life time
-Loss of investment
• Intensify use• Move assets to other location• Reassemble assets for other function• Built in flexibility
Underlying assumption:Technical lifetime > Economic lifetime
Most promising
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16Challenge the future
Economic life cycle approach of the port system
- deep water channel- Entrance channel- Breakwaters- Port layout + handling- Quays and jetties- (un)Loading equipment- Inland transport
Limiting factor!Revenue orientationChanges in relative costs
Org
aniz
ati
on
port
& t
raffi
c
Focus is on
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17Challenge the future
•
Cause of value
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18Challenge the future
Conclusions
Maintenance theory is an aid to life cycle management. Focus on risk of failure
Include the renewal option in life cycle cost management
New opportunities are more important than optimal maintenance
Optimize the port system spending on limiting factors
Do some dismal thinking to find the bright ideas