1 C REATING LONGITUDINAL ANALYSES USING LINKED EDUCATION AND WORKFORCE DATA 26th Annual MIS...
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Transcript of 1 C REATING LONGITUDINAL ANALYSES USING LINKED EDUCATION AND WORKFORCE DATA 26th Annual MIS...
1
CREATING LONGITUDINAL ANALYSES USING LINKED
EDUCATION AND WORKFORCE DATA
26th Annual MIS ConferenceFebruary 14, 2013
Carol JennerWashington Education Research & Data Center
2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013
• Why connect education and workforce information?
• What questions can be answered?
• Workforce data sources
• How to get workforce data
• Using the data
• Putting it all together – P-20W examples
OVERVIEW
2
2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 3
WHY CONNECT EDUCATION AND
WORKFORCE INFORMATION?
2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 4
Between 2010 and 2020, the share of jobs requiring postsecondary education or training will increase• Success in employment is a critical
element in evaluating the effectiveness of education and training programs
• Awareness of employment outcomes of specific programs can help guide education and career decisions, as demonstrated in Washington’s Career Bridge website at careerbridge.wa.gov.
EMPLOYMENT IS A KEY OUTCOME
"Employment and Wages Online Annual Averages, 2010," Bureau of Labor Statistics. <www.bls.gov/cew/cewbultn10.htm>
2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 5
WHAT QUESTIONS CAN BE
ANSWERED?
2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 6
To examine employment as an outcome• Do graduates enter the workforce
immediately after graduation or receipt of degree?
• How many grads stay in your state to work?
• What are the workforce outcomes for completers of a particular program? (CTE in high school, student major in postsecondary)
• How do employment and postsecondary enrollment relate to employment patterns established during high school?
WHAT QUESTIONS?
2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 7
To examine employment status of students while enrolled• How many students are employed during
the school year?• How much do they earn?• In what industries are they employed?• How does workforce participation relate to
o Course completion and grades?o Postsecondary enrollment? Persistence in
enrollment?o Application for and receipt of financial aid?
WHAT QUESTIONS?
2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 8
• What is the effect of the current recession on employment patterns during and after enrollment?
• How long does is take for a graduate to find stable employment?
• What is the return on investment for various postsecondary programs?
• What college majors and training programs are associated with the highest earnings five years after graduation?
QUESTIONS THE ECONOMISTS MIGHT ASK
2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 9
From single-state UI wage data, we do not know:• Employment outside the state• Occupation• Distribution of wages within a quarter• Different jobs for a single employer• Specific employee locations for multi-site
employers• Employment not covered by UI program
BLS publishes industry-specific occupational employment estimates
WHAT CAN’T BE ANSWERED
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Industry-Specific Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates, May 2011. <www.bls.gov/oes/2011/may/oessrci.htm>
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WORKFORCE DATA SOURCES
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About the Unemployment Insurance (UI) Program• A federal-state program financed by
payroll taxes paid by employers (and in a few states by employee)
• U.S. Department of Labor sets broad criteria for eligibility and coverage. States determine specifics.
• Nearly all employers who pay wages to employees participate byo Registering with the stateo Submitting quarterly reportso Paying UI taxes or reimbursing for benefits paid
THE UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAM
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Bottom line: Approximately 97% of the employees on nonfarm payrolls nationally are included in these files.
A small percentage of workers are not covered by the state UI program, including:
– Small farm operators– Some employees performing domestic services with total wages
less than $1,000 in all quarters– Non-profit preschool staff, if fewer than four staff; church
employees– Business owners, sole proprietors, self-employed workers– Federal employees (civilian and military), U.S. Postal Service
employees, railroad employees– Work-study students, as long as the employer is a non-profit, state
government or local government– Licensed insurance agents, real estate agents, brokers, and
investment company agents
WHO IS COVERED BY THE UI PROGRAM?
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Wage Data • Year and quarter of earnings• Employer account number• Employee identifier (usually SSN)• Wages paid (earnings) • Hours worked (in some states)• Name
WHAT’S IN A UI QUARTERLY RECORD?
2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 14
Employer Characteristics• North American Industry Classification
System (NAICS) code – a hierarchical coding scheme
• Ownership (Federal, State, Local, International, Private)
• Number of employees• Geographic location within state
WHAT’S IN A UI QUARTERLY RECORD?
2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 15
North American Industry Classification System• Hierarchical, up to 6 levels
• The over 20 different 2-digit codes are sometimes combined into “supersectors”
NAICS (PRONOUNCED “NAKES”)
22 Utilities 221 Utilities 2211 Electric Power Generation, Transmission & Distribution 22111 Electric Power Generation 221113 Nuclear Electric Power Generation
“Introduction to NAICS,” U.S. Census Bureau. <www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/>U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Supersectors: <www.bls.gov/ces/cessuper.htm>
162013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013
WHAT’S IN A UI WAGE RECORD
2013 1 12345678078051120 Simpson Homer 5200 520 221113 124 500 1400
2013 2 12345678078051120 Simpson Homer 5200 520 221113 124 500 1400
2013 3 12345678078051120 Simpson Homer 5200 520 221113 124 500 1400
2013 4 12345678078051120 Simpson Homer 5200 520 221113 124 500 1400
2013 1 12345678078002346 Simpson Bart 2080 260 221113 124 500 1400
2013 2 12345678078002346 Simpson Bart 2080 260 221113 124 500 1400
2013 3 12345678078002346 Simpson Bart 2080 260 221113 124 500 1400
2013 4 12345678078002346 Simpson Bart 2080 260 221113 124 500 1400Year
Quarter
Employer Account
SSN NameHours
WagesIndustry
Employees
Ownership
Location
UI Wage Record Employer Characteristics
Note: These examples are presented for illustrative purposes and do not represent actual UI wage data.
2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 17
WHEN DOES WAGE DATA BECOME AVAILABLE?
Current Year
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4
Prior year Quarter 4 data submitted by employer and
processed by state agency
Current year Quarter 1 data submitted by employer and
processed by state agency
Current year Quarter 2 data submitted by employer and
processed by state agency
Current year Quarter 3 data submitted by employer and
processed by state agency
Prior year Quarter 3 data available for
research
Prior year Quarter 4 data available for
research
Current year Quarter 1 data
available for research
Current year Quarter 2 data
available for research
2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 18
OTHER SOURCES OF UI WAGE DATA¨ Federal Employment Data Exchange System (FEDES) –
contains federal civilian employees, U.S. Postal Service employees, and Department of Defense active duty personnel. Operated by the Jacob France Institute at the University of Baltimore. www.ubalt.edu/jfi/fedes
¨ Wage Record Interchange System (WRIS/WRIS2) – a multistate collaborative that facilitates the exchange of wage data among participating states. www.doleta.gov/performance/WRIS.cfm and www.doleta.gov/performance/WRIS2.cfm
¨ Local Employment Dynamics (LED) program – a partnership between states and the U.S. Census Bureau that provides summary information on employment and earnings at local level. lehd.did.census.gov/led/led/led.html
2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 19
Workers becoming unemployed are eligible for UI benefits if:
• The individual worked 680 hours of covered employment in a base year
• The unemployment is due to circumstances beyond the control of the worker, such as lack of work or business closure
• Individual is physically able to work, available to work, and actively seeking work
UI CLAIMANT DATA
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P-20W questions• How are spells of unemployment related to
industry of employment (and college major field of study)?
• How does the pattern of unemployment insurance claims (duration and number of spells) vary for the cohort of secondary career-technical education graduates entering the workforce immediately after high school graduation?
UI CLAIMANT DATA
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HOW TO GET WORKFORCE DATA
2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 22
Identify the workforce data custodian in your state• Get acquainted with your state’s labor
market information (LMI) officeo In many cases the state LMI shop is in the
same agency as the state Unemployment Insurance program
o LMI staff should have familiarity with the data and the processes necessary to move to the next step
o Check the directory on the website lmiontheweb.org/ to find your state’s LMI director
• Discuss your needs with LMI specialists
GET TO KNOW YOUR STATE LMI SHOP
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Goals of P-20W Data Governance• Protect student and employer privacy
consistent with applicable lawso Both FERPA* and U.S. Department of Labor**
regulations are in play
• Promote responsible data useo ERDC distributes link to PTAC Technical Brief
#3***: Statistical Methods for Protecting Personally Identifiable Information in Aggregate Reporting
GET FAMILIAR WITH PRIVACY ISSUES
*FERPA reference: www2.ed.gov/ptac**US DOL reference: Electronic code of Federal Regulations, Part 603***PTAC Technical Brief link: nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2011603
2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 24
Establish a data-sharing agreement• Be prepared to provide or discuss
o Any legislation that authorizes you to access this data
o The role of UI wage data in the proposed research
o Data items needed to conduct the research
• Additional components includeo Limitations on access and use and re-
disclosureo Physical safeguards, data transfer protocol
• Notice of Non-disclosure to be signed by all with access to UI data
ESTABLISH DATA-SHARING PROTOCOLS
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USING THE DATA
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SSN is the nearly universal linking field between education and workforce data• Can come from a variety of sources within
a centralized P-20W data system• Can be used with name fields to confirm
link• Use auxiliary data sources to establish or
confirm linko Within-sector name change informationo Driver license records (may contain SSN)o Marriage-divorce and court records for name
change
SSN – THE KEY LINKING IDENTIFIER
2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 27
SSN data quality varies by P-20 sector. • Parent SSN sometimes entered in K-12
student records. Work history should not start before student reaches working age.
• In our experience, SSNs from higher ed sector are usually valid.
Should be only one SSN per employer account per quarter• Name fields can be used to eliminate
records with data entry errors in SSNThe more tools applied, the cleaner the
data.
CLEANSING THE DATA
2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 28
Important when using data spanning more than one quarter• Consumer Price Index
o Day-to-day living expenses for urban consumers based on fixed “market basket” of goods and services
• Implicit Price Deflator for Personal Consumptiono Assumes that the consumer has made
allowances for changes in relative prices
The index is the ratio of the cost in a particular time period to the base cost.
ADJUSTING FOR INFLATION
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PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER:
P-20 EXAMPLES
2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 30
Indicator 5S1 – Secondary Placement• Denominator (the cohort): Number of CTE
concentrators who left secondary education during the reporting year
• Numerator: Number in the cohort who were “placed” in postsecondary education or training, or in employment in a specific post-exit quarter
• Washington uses P-20W data (Washington public postsecondary enrollment, National Student Clearinghouse, and UI wage data) to develop this indicator
CAREER-TECHNICAL EDUCATION FOLLOW-UP
312013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013
WORKFORCE PARTICIPATION, H.S. GRADS
CountPercen
t of total
Total regular high school graduates, Spring-Summer 2009 61,685
Total evaluated for workforce participation (73% of grads)
45,077 100%
Total with earnings in Washington 34,071 76%
Total with earnings during last 2 years of HS* 28,159 62%
Earnings during school year 25,638 57%
Earnings during summer 2008 only 2,521 6%
Earnings post-high school* 25,505 57%*These two categories are not mutually exclusive, so totals add to more than 100%.
Workforce Participation, Washington State High School Graduates, 2008-09, April 2011.< www.erdc.wa.gov/briefs/pdf/201102.pdf >
322013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013
EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY GROUP
Washington High School Graduates, Spring-Summer 2009, with earnings in last two years of high school
Industry Supersector Total During school year
Summer only
Natural resources and mining 3% 2% 11%
Construction 2% 2% 5%
Manufacturing 2% 2% 3%
Trade, transportation, and utilities (includes retail)
29% 30% 17%
Information 2% 2% 2%
Financial activities 2% 2% 2%
Professional and business services 4% 4% 6%
Education and health services 10% 10% 12%
Leisure and hospitality (includes restaurants) 38% 39% 30%
Other services and public administration 7% 6% 12%
332013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013
ANSWERS LEAD TO MORE QUESTIONS…Median earnings by quarter by post-high school enrollment status
Note the difference in
earnings between CTC and 4-year students
342013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013
HIGHER ED APPLICATION
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Date of Award
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Term Year
* Summer 2007
2007-08 * Fall 2007
* Winter 2008
* Spring 2008
* Date of award (calendar quarter)
Reference years: 0 1 2 3
Goal: Express workforce outcomes relative to the timing of an event – receipt of degree
2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 35
• Employer Account Employer Research ID• SSN Student Research ID• Industry Code Reduced to 2- or 3-digit• Number of Employees Size classes• Unchanged: Wages, hours, year, quarter• Additions include:
o Inflation-adjusted wages (plus values of index used)
o Imputation details (basis for imputation, imputed hours)
o Reference year and quarter (relative to date of award)
PREPARATION OF DE-IDENTIFIED DATA
2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 36
• Student ID Student Research ID• Specific CIP codes for major may be
aggregated• Other characteristics (age, race/ethnicity,
geographic origin) may be grouped into broader categories
• Groupings done in consultation with IR shops and will not necessarily be the same across all institutions
• Possible additionso Survey resultso Enrollment status (Washington public
institutions plus National Student Clearinghouse data) by quarter
PREPARATION OF STUDENT COMPLETIONS DATA
2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 37
Wage Detail File – One record for each year-quarter-employer-employee where year-quarter falls within study range• Original data (de-identified) as described
plus additional elementsWage Summary File – One record for each
graduate• Annual (by reference year): primary
employer, industry of primary employer, number of employers, total wages
Student File – De-identified student and degree information
THREE FILES TO RESEARCHERS (ALL DE-IDENTIFIED)
2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 38
EXAMPLE FROM BACCALAUREATE FOLLOW-UP
“Connecting Unemployment Insurance (UI) Wage and Baccalaureate Data,” presented at Association for Institutional Research Annual Forum, June 5, 2012. <www.erdc.wa.gov/presentations/pdf/20120605_air.pdf >
Analysis of 2005-06 bachelor’s degree recipients from a Washington higher education institution.Inflation-adjusted.
2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 39
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES AND
CONTACTS
2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013
For more information on education-workforce connections, see:
Employment Data Handbook: A Guide for Incorporating Employment Information from a State Unemployment Insurance (UI) Program into a P 20 Longitudinal Data System www.erdc.wa.gov/briefs/pdf/EmploymentDataHandbook_v1.pdf
Contact information:Carol Jenner: [email protected]
Tim Norris: [email protected]
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES AND CONTACTS
40