Conversations within Conversations: Intertextuality in Racially
1 Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission Racially Polarized Voting Analysis 11/29/2011.
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1 Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission Racially Polarized Voting Analysis 11/29/2011
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Transcript of 1 Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission Racially Polarized Voting Analysis 11/29/2011.
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Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission
Racially Polarized Voting Analysis
11/29/2011
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Presidential Election 2008
% Voting Age-Hispanic
Votin
g Ag
e Po
pula
tion
% V
oting
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Gubernatorial Election 2010
% Voting Age-Hispanic %Voting
Votin
g Ag
e Po
pula
tion
% V
oting
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Sample precinct:
• 40% of the electorate is Hispanic• 60% of the electorate is non-Hispanic• Hispanic candidate “A” got 35% of the vote• What % of the Hispanic vote did candidate “A” receive?
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Hispanic Support for Candidate A
Non-Hispanic Support for Candidate A
Hispanic Votes for Candidate A
Hispanic Votes for Candidate B
Non-Hispanic Votes for Candidate A
Non-Hispanic Votes for Candidate B
Total Votes for Candidate A
Total Votes for Candidate B
% for Candidate A
5% 55% 200 3,800 3,300 2,700 3,500 6,500 35%10% 52% 400 3,600 3,120 2,880 3,520 6,480 35%15% 49% 600 3,400 2,940 3,060 3,540 6,460 35%20% 45% 800 3,200 2,700 3,300 3,500 6,500 35%25% 41% 1,000 3,000 2,460 3,540 3,460 6,540 35%30% 38% 1,200 2,800 2,280 3,720 3,480 6,520 35%35% 35% 1,400 2,600 2,100 3,900 3,500 6,500 35%40% 31% 1,600 2,400 1,860 4,140 3,460 6,540 35%45% 28% 1,800 2,200 1,680 4,320 3,480 6,520 35%50% 25% 2,000 2,000 1,500 4,500 3,500 6,500 35%55% 21% 2,200 1,800 1,260 4,740 3,460 6,540 35%60% 18% 2,400 1,600 1,080 4,920 3,480 6,520 35%65% 15% 2,600 1,400 900 5,100 3,500 6,500 35%70% 11% 2,800 1,200 660 5,340 3,460 6,540 35%75% 8% 3,000 1,000 480 5,520 3,480 6,520 35%80% 5% 3,200 800 300 5,700 3,500 6,500 35%85% 1% 3,400 600 60 5,940 3,460 6,540 35%90% 0% 3,600 400 0 6,000 3,600 6,400 95% 0% 3,800 200 0 6,000 3,800 6,200
100% 0% 4,000 0 0 6,000 4,000 6,000
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Turnout
Hispanic Candidate (D)
White Candidate (R)
Non-Major Party White Candidates
Total VAP
White 0.36 0.29 0.67 0.035 0.387
Hispanic 0.19 0.79 0.17 0.037 0.502
Native American
0.18 0.78 0.14 0.086 0.041
Black 0.20 0.52 0.28 0.193 0.036
Other 0.32 0.43 0.20 0.374 0.034
Total Votes 0.26 0.50 0.44 0.056 NA
US House of Representatives 2010: District 7
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Racially Polarized Voting Analysis
• Existing Congressional Districts• Draft Congressional Districts
• Existing Legislative Districts• Draft Legislative Districts
