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Analytic Capacity to Address the Neighborhood

Impacts of Foreclosures

HUD Office of Policy Development and Research

November 2, 2009

Tom Kingsley, Kathy Pettit, Peter Tatian, Leah Hendey

The Urban Institute

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THIS PRESENTATION

Urban Institute Approach & Experience Tom Kingsley

Working with NNIP to Address the Crisis Kathy Pettit

Addressing Foreclosure Issues in the Washington DC Region Peter Tatian

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UI APPROACH

Assemble national datasets Work involves assembly, cleaning, selecting

indicators, structuring for ease of use Developed the Neighborhood Change Database

(NCDB – consistent census data since 1970) These data systems – the content for DataPlace

Form working relationship with local practitioners Coordinate the National Neighborhood Indicators

Partnership (NNIP – since 1995) Local data intermediaries – operate neighborhood

level information systems in public interest Number of local partners has grown (from 6 to 32)

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NATIONAL DATA RESOURCES

Economy Example: Zip Business Patterns

Education Example: National Center for Education Statistics

Income/Savings Example: Statistics of Income Individual Tax Data

Housing Example: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act Example: Section 8/Multifamily

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NATIONAL NEIGHBORHOOD INDICATORS PARTNERSHIP (NNIP)

Local partners operate information systems Recurrently updated neighborhood-level data Multiple topics and data sources

Trusted institutions Mostly outside of government 38% University institutes, 33% stand-alone nonprofits Rely on collaboration with other sectors and residents

Shared mission: Democratizing information Practical applications central to mission Direct work with stakeholders – stakeholders “own” the

product

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NATIONAL NEIGHBORHOOD INDICATORS PARTNERSHIP (NNIP)

AtlantaBaltimoreBostonCamdenChattanoogaChicagoClevelandColumbusDallasDenverDes MoinesDetroitGrand RapidsHartfordIndianapolisLouisvilleLos AngelesMemphisMiami MilwaukeeMinneapolisNashvilleNew HavenNew OrleansNew York City

Oakland PhiladelphiaPittsburghProvidenceSacramentoSaint LouisSeattleWashington, DC

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LOCAL PARTNERS IN NNIP DATA FROM MANY SOURCES

Address level

Employment Births, deaths Crimes TANF, Food Stamps Child care Health Schools

Parcel level

Prop. sales, prices Prop. ownership Foreclosures Assessed values Tax arrears Vacant/abandoned City/CDC plans

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NNIP – RECENT ACTIVITIES Cross-site projects

Promoting school readiness and success Supporting the Sustainable Communities Initiative Addressing the foreclosure crisis

Tools Catalog of Administrative Data Sources Guide to Property Data

Continued support for aspiring partners Portland, San Antonio, Kansas City

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RECENT UI PROJECTS ON FORECLOSURE ISSUES

Literature review: impacts of foreclosures on families and neighborhoods (OSI)

Action research/data and strategy: Atlanta, Chicago, Washington (Fannie Mae)

Foreclosure-Response.org web site (with Center for Housing Policy & LISC, various sponsors)

Analysis for District of Columbia (D.C. Dept. of Insurance, Securities, Banking & Fannie Mae)

Analysis spatial patterns & policy, Washington DC Region (Housing in Nation’s Capital, Fannie Mae)

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RECENT UI PROJECTS (continued)

Evaluation of National Foreclosure Mitigation Counseling Program (NeighborWorks)

Evaluation of Living Cities Neighborhood Stabilization Initiative (Living Cities)

Impacts on school children - Baltimore, New York, Washington (OSI)

Neighborhood typologies (foreclosure risk x market strength) – Atlanta, Baltimore, Louisville, Providence (with LISC, for Casey Foundation)

NSP2 Technical Assistance (part of LISC team)

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Working with NNIP to Address the Crisis

Kathy Pettit

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NNIP Partner Foreclosure Activities, Winter 2009

Activity AreaNumber of Partners

Currently involved in foreclosure work

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Overall coordination of strategies 13

Foreclosure prevention 10

Minimizing harm from vacant foreclosed properties

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Helping displaced families recover 1

Getting vacant foreclosed properties back into use

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Neighborhood Responses to the Foreclosure Crisis Symposium

Minneapolis, May 2009

Co-sponsored by NNIP and University of Minnesota Center for Urban and Regional Affairs (CURA)

Workshops Outreach/Organizing for Prevention Managing Foreclosed Properties Acquisition of Foreclosed Properties Land Banking

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Foreclosure-Related Data Geography

 Property Transactions/Characteristics

Any Geography

Address/ Parcel

  Property characteristics 23 22

  Home sales (volume, price) 29 21

  Tax delinquencies 16 14

  Vacant parcels 22 18

  Foreclosures 29 20

  Housing code violations 17 14

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Property Transactions/Characteristics  Any

Daily/ weekly/monthly Quarterly Annual

  Property characteristics 22 5 4 11

  Home sales (volume, price) 28 7 5 11

  Tax delinquencies 15 2 2 5

  Vacant parcels 21 4 2 5

  Foreclosures 26 9 5 4

  Housing code violations 16 1 0 5

Foreclosure-Related Data Update Schedule

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Local Contributions of NNIP Partners

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Identifying Elderly At Risk of Losing Homes in Allegheny County

2,214(18%)

4,646(33%)

12,494

Analysis by Pittsburgh Neighborhood and Community Information System

12,494 people named as defendants in foreclosure proceedings between 2006 and Nov. 2007

4,646 matches with Allegheny County Department of Human Service clients

2,214 of customers actively accessing resources

904 elderly identified (599 as active Area Agency on Aging consumers and 305 from voter records)

599(5%)

305(2%) +

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Foreclosed Rental Propertiesin New York City

Of the 15,000 foreclosure filings in 2007, 60% were on multifamily buildings. Foreclosures affected 30,000 households, 15,000 of which were renters

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Source: University of MemphisCenter for Community Building and Neighborhood Action (CBANA)

Foreclosure, Vacancy, & Abandonmentin Memphis Neighborhoods

$4,000-$5,999 17%(499)

$6,000-$7,99917%(495)

$8,000-$10,000 21%(620)

$1-$999 9%

(262)

$1000-$1,999 15%(435)

$2,000-$3,999 21%(630)

N=2,941

Source: Cuyahoga County Auditor transfer data from NEO CANDO, Center on Urban Poverty and Community Development, Mandel School of Applied Social Sciences, Case Western Reserve University.http://neocado.case.edu

Prices of Distressed Properties Leaving REO,2005-08

Source: NEO CANDO, Case Western University N=2,941

Top Sellers of REO Properties, Cuyahoga County, 2007-2008

Seller

Number of REO

properties sold,

$10,000 or less

Percent of total REO properties

sold

REO properties

sold by seller, all

prices

Percent of REO

properties sold for

$10,000 or less by seller

Deutsche Bank National Trust 486 18.59% 1089 44.63%

Wells Fargo 304 11.63% 771 39.43%

Fannie Mae 239 9.14% 982 24.34%

U.S. Bank National Association 194 7.42% 519 37.38%

LaSalle Bank National Association 162 6.20% 322 50.31%

Bank of New York 112 4.28% 404 27.72%

JP Morgan Chase Bank 103 3.94% 298 34.56%

HSBC Bank 75 2.87% 163 46.01%

Homecoming Financial Network 73 2.79% 173 42.20%

Wachovia Bank 56 2.14% 150 37.33%

Total (top sellers) 1804 69.00% 4871 62.46%

Total REO properties sold 2614   7799  

Source: Cuyahoga County Auditor transfer data from NEO CANDO, Center on Urban Poverty and Community Development, Mandel School of Applied Social Sciences, Case Western Reserve University.

http://neocando.case.edu        

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NNIPCross-Site Projects

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Addressing The Foreclosure Crisis: Action Oriented Research

AtlantaPerformed scan of foreclosure response system, convened stakeholders from across systems and counties, worked in-depth with DeKalb County

ChicagoWorked with Greater Southwest Development Corporation to analyze foreclosure counseling clients wit administrative foreclosure data

Washington, D.C. (described later)

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Addressing The Foreclosure Crisis: Atlanta

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Addressing The Foreclosure Crisis: Chicago

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Children and Foreclosures

Baltimore, New York City, Washington, D.C. Link public school student data with foreclosure

data by address Phase 1: Point-in-time

How Many? Who (race, tenure, ELL)? What Neighborhoods? What Schools?

Phase 2: Post-foreclosure Where do the families go? How does it affect their academic outcomes?

(absenteeism, test scores, drop-out rates)

1,400 D.C. students lived in a home in foreclosure, concentrated in a few areas. Public School Students in Parcels Public School Students in Parcels with Foreclosure Notice, SY 2008-2009with Foreclosure Notice, SY 2008-2009

H Street /Kingman Park

Deanwood /Lincoln Heights

Trinidad

Brightwood /16th Street Heights /

Petworth

Location of Students' Residences, 2008-2009 School Year

Number of Public Students in Parcel1

5

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Ward Boundaries

1 to 4 students5 to 9 students10 or more students

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NNIP Roles in NSP/NSP2

Locally: Proposal Planning, Implementation and Monitoring 12 assisted in original NSP applications

(city/county, state) Nationally: Technical Assistance

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Addressing Foreclosures in the Washington D.C. Region

Peter Tatian

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DC Housing Monitor Quarterly update on D.C. housing market

Home and condominium sales, listings Section 8 preservation Foreclosures

Special analysis Mortgage lending trends (HMDA) Who owns the neighborhood? Tracking subsidized housing

http://www.NeighborhoodInfoDC.org/housing/

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Prices dropping throughout the city,middle of market had steepest declines

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Ward 1

Ward 2

Ward 3

Ward 4

Ward 5

Ward 6

Ward 7

Ward 8

Four-quarter moving average of median price, single-family homes (2009 $ thousands)

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Foreclosure inventory continues to rise, foreclosure starts and sales leveling off

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

In Foreclosure

Foreclosure Starts

Foreclosure Sales

Distressed Sales

Foreclosures Avoided

Single-family homes and condominium units, 1999 – 2009 Q2

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0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Est

imat

ed N

um

ber

of

Ho

use

ho

lds

in P

rop

erti

esin

Fo

recl

osu

re In

ven

tory

Renter Households

Owner Households

Half of D.C. Households Affected by Foreclosures are Renters

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Housing in the Nation's Capital Annual report on housing conditions in the

Washington, D.C., metropolitan area Since 2002, regular updates of key indicators Special analyses

2003: Low-income housing 2004 & 2005: Challenges from economic prosperity 2006: Link between housing, neighborhoods, schools 2007: Housing for populations with special needs 2009: Foreclosures

http://www.urban.org/center/met/hnc/index.cfm

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Assisted local jurisdictions with NSP 2 applications Provided both the District of Columbia and

the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG) with data to support their applications Mapping of HUD foreclosure and vacancy indices Local data on foreclosures HMDA, MRIS, Census, BLS

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Supporting Regional NSP2 Application

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Resources

http://www.foreclosure-response.org

NNIP Foreclosures – cross-site and local

http://www2.urban.org/nnip/foreclosures.html

NeighborhoodInfo DC Foreclosure Page

http://www.neighborhoodinfodc.org/foreclosure/

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Contact InformationMetropolitan Housing and Communities Center The Urban Institute2100 M Street, NWWashington, DC 20037Tel (main): 202-833-7200Web: www.urban.orgEmail: tkingsley@urban.org

kpettit@urban.orgptatian@urban.orglhendey@urban.org