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Air Quality during the Sept. 2013 Houston DISCOVER-AQ Deployment and Preliminary Evaluation of NOAA CMAQ Air

Quality Forecasts

Kenneth Pickering, NASA GSFCBryan Duncan, NASA GSFC

Pius Lee, NOAA ARLMariel Friberg, Georgia TechJames Crawford, NASA LaRC

and the DISCOVER-AQ Observation Team

6th Biannual AQAST Meeting – Rice University – January 15, 2014

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Outline

1) Overview of meteorological and air quality conditionsduring the Houston DISCOVER-AQ experiment

2) Significant pollution episodes – aerosols and ozone

3) Air quality model forecasts available during Houstondeployment

4) Preliminary evaluation of NOAA CMAQ forecasts using DISCOVER-AQ P-3B aircraft data

Daily 1-Hour Max Ozone (ppbv) – All StationsSeptember 1st – 30th

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 3020

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Daily 1-Hour Max Ozone (ppbv)

Ozo

ne (p

pbv) #1

#2#3

#4 #5 #6

#7

#8

#9

Relatively clean 3 flight daysModerate pollution 4Strongly polluted 2

< >

clouds, heavyrains, marine air

bay, sea breezesfollowing cold front

Daily 8-Hour Max Ozone (ppbv)September 1st – 30th

NAAQS: 75 ppbv 8-hr avg

Sites exceeding NAAQS 8 3

ConroeJonesForest

Texas City

La Porte

Seabrook

Air Monitoring Sites in Houston Region

1-Hour Ozone (ppbv)September 25th – 26th

25th 26th

La PorteSeabrookTexas City

Jones ForestConroe La Porte

Hourly PM2.5September 2nd – 26th

Hou

rly P

M2.

5 (ug

/m3 )

20

10

30

#1#2 #3#4

#5#6#7 #8 #9NAAQS: 35 µg/m3 24-hr avg.

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High AOD associated withagricultural fire plumes from Mississippi Valley.Back door cold frontpushed smoke overHouston.

No real impact seen insurface PM2.5.

Houston Aerosol Episode of Sept. 14, 2013

HourlyPM2.5(µg/m3)

Houston Aerosol Episode of September 14, 2013

HSRL-2 Extinction West Houston to Smith Point

P-3B Nephelometer & Absorption Photometer

West Houston

GEOS-5 aerosolforecast from00 UT 14 Sept.

Cloud cover

Extinction

AOD

GEOS-5 global model at0.25 deg. resolution; GOCART aerosols, CO, SO2;includes assimilation ofMODIS AOD

Run by Arlindo da Silvaat NASA/GSFC

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Univ. of Houston (Yunsoo Choi) WRF/CMAQ - 4-km resolution; NEI-2008 with MOVESWRF-Chem – 4-km resolution; NEI-2005

NOAA/ARL (Pius Lee)WRF/CMAQ at 12-km resolution; point and area emissions

projected to current year; MOBILE6 vehicle emissions

TCEQ (Mark Estes and ENVIRON)WRF/CAMx at 12-km resolution

Regional Air Quality Forecasts for Houston Deployment

NOAA Experimental CMAQ

CTM CMAQ v. 4.6

Driven by WRF-NMM meteorology

Intervals 48 hour forecasts from 06Z

Chemical mechanism CB05

Aerosol module Aero4

EmissionsAnthropogenic: NEI-05; pt. & area sources projected to 2013Biogenic: BEIS-3

Domain 12 km horizontal resolution

Vertical coordinate NMM Hybrid (60L)

Radiation / Photolysis Lacis-Hansen Bulk

PBL Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) local TKE

Clouds Ferrier cloud water, graupel/ice

Convective cloud mixing Betts-Miller-Janjic Mass Adjustment

Land surface NOAH LSM

Galveston

Smith Point

Channelview

Deer Park

MoodyTower

WestHouston

Conroe

ManvelCroix

9/25

9/26

GV SP MT WH CR CV DP MC GV SP MT WH CR CV DP MC GV SP MT WH CR CV DP MCGulf Galv Bay

CMAQ got the right idea of high ozone over Galveston Bay area late in the day, but failed to capturethe early onset (by 12 – 1 PM) of the bay breeze and the magnitude of the effect on ozone. 12-km resolution insufficient to resolve bay breeze. CMAQ maximum ozone over Gulf not found.

Conroe

Galveston

GV SP MT WH CR CV DP MC GV SP MT WH CR CV DP MC NW CR m/a

CMAQ very well predicted the ozone plume to the NNW of Houstonduring the afternoon

ConroeGalveston

CMAQ missedelevated O3 layer

Conroe profile well forecast

O3 maximumto NNW of Houston wellforecast

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Summary

The DISCOVER-AQ Houston campaign completed successful flights with both P-3B and King Air on nine days during Sept. 2013.

Much of the month characterized by low to moderate ozone. Two days (Sept. 25 and 26) with high ozone in parts of the region, following cold frontal passage.

One day with enhanced AOD as a result of agricultural fires in the Miss. Valley, but surface PM2.5 little affected.

NOAA CMAQ ozone forecast underestimated observations on Sept. 25 due to inability to resolve bay/sea breeze. Performed well on Sept. 26.

Forthcoming work:- More comprehensive NOAA CMAQ forecast evaluation- Retrospective fine-resolution CMAQ and WRF-Chem simulations- Statistical analysis of surface versus column observations