1 5 Faces Slight Downturn - Security Industry Association · analytics could help them achieve true...

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SECURITY MARKET INDEX

The Security Industry Association (SIA) The Security

Industry Association (SIA) is the leading trade association in the electronic physical security

industry, with about 700 corporate and organizational

members.

SIA protects and advances its members’ interests by:

• Advocating for pro-industry policies and legislation on Capitol Hill and throughout the 50 states

• Producing leading-edge global market research

• Creating open industry standards that enable integration

• Advancing industry professionalism through

education and training• Opening global market

opportunities

For more information about this publication or SIA’s other research

and technology programs, products and services, contact

Ron Hawkins, SIA’s director of industry relations, at (301) 804-4713 or

[email protected].

For information on SIA membership

call us at (301) 804-4700 orvisit our website at

www.securityindustry.org.

Security Industry Association8405 Colesville Road, Ste. 500

Silver Spring, MD 20910Tel: (301) 804-4700

Fax: (301) 804-4701www.securityindustry.org

© Copyright 2017. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Table of Contents

SIA Security Market Index 1

Security Video 5

Access Control 6

Security Systems Integration 7

Security Consulting 7

Bonus: Vertical Sectors for Growth 8

A Bimonthly Measure from the Security Industry Association

August 2017

www.securityindustry.org

With the third quarter now in full swing, security industry leaders are feeling a slight drop in overall industry confidence. The Security

Industry Association Security Market Index (SMI) for August 2017 is 65.3, the lowest since October 2016’s Index of 63.9. However, any Index rating higher than 50 indicates security professionals are primarily confident in their business prospects. The drop in the Index overall can be attributed to lower growth in a number of areas, especially hours worked, capital equipment spending and R&D spending. The Security Market Index measures the current status and future expectations of security industry executives through a select survey of SIA members. The Index’s goal is to provide a macro-view of confidence levels in the security industry while closely examining nine specific business measures: • Number of employees or hours worked• Marketing spending• Product production or service output• Capital equipment spending• Product inventories or service backlogs

• R&D spending• New product or service introductions • Product or service sales • New orders or contracts In August, fewer SMI survey participants reported improvement in the majority of these measures compared to recent months. While most of the measures do show increases – in hours worked, marketing spending, product production, R&D spending, new product introductions, product or service sales and new orders – the degrees are much smaller than noted previously. Less than 73% reported increases in the number of employees or hours worked, compared to 83% in June 2017. One respondent noted that while the number of employees in the enterprise was climbing slightly, it takes more work to achieve than five years ago. Respondents reported much less R&D investment in August compared to previous months. Only 55.6% of respondents said they were increasing R&D spending, compared to 78% in June 2017. A few respondents noted that their product development was centering on developing new synergies and integrations

Security Industry Confidence Faces Slight Downturn

SIA Security Market Index, August 2017

Overall, the Index survey measures general business conditions but also gauges nine elements to reach one Index number that signals security industry executives’ confidence. The elements are:• Number of Employees or Hours Worked• Marketing Spending• Product Production/Service Output• Capital Equipment Spending• Product Inventories/Service Backlogs• R&D Spending• New Product/New Service Introductions• Product/Service Sales• New Orders/New Contracts

Source: SIA Security Market Index, August 2017

AUGUST 2017

JUNE 2017

65.3 68

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with other products and services, relying on strategic partnerships for new features. Capital equipment spending experienced decreases in August, with 47.6% of respondents saying they were lowering the amount they spent on capital equipment. In June, the majority of respondents (63%) reported increases in capital equipment spending. Product inventories are largely stagnant, with half of the SMI survey respondents saying that inventory levels are remaining unchanged, with several respondents noting a slower inventory turnover. New orders and product/service sales

both dropped from their June 2017 levels: only 80% of respondents saw increases in new orders in August compared to 88% in June, and 81% of security industry leaders reported increases in product/service sales compared to 87% in June. Compared to July 2016, however, the industry isn’t doing too badly – according to the July 2016 Security Market Index, only 76% of survey respondents were reporting increases in new orders, and 70% saw increases in product/service sales. Marketing spending continues to hold at similar levels of increase (62% in August, 65% in June), but security providers are

seeking out less conventional means of marketing, especially those with lower costs. “Most marketing is direct mail and social media – practically no cost,” said one. Another added that social media marketing is necessary to reach younger consumers and a wider audience. One respondent is switching tactics regarding marketing spending to reach small businesses, noting that traditional marketing can prove costly and ineffective for this segment, so the business is reorienting on direct/focused marketing and sourcing through salespeople or similar means. Despite these factors, industry confidence in general is fairly high. The majority of SMI participants consider current business conditions to be either “excellent” (45.8%) or “good” (39.6%), with no respondents believing conditions to be “poor” in August. One respondent noted that “the opportunity for future growth is very strong.” Another reported “larger and larger projects” in the works. Others noted the slow creation and adoption of truly efficient and innovative solutions: “IoT technologies are still relatively new,” said one respondent. “The customer base is slower to adopt and implement/integrate.” Another said: “Security industry technology is relatively stagnant compared to IT advancement. Systems manufacturers have a shallow understanding of customer needs, and unlike for IT business applications, customers can’t articulate, for example, where the industry’s products can go, because they are lacking insight into how automation, data integration and


The vast majority of security industry professionals surveyed for the Security Market Index con-sider business conditions to be primarily “excellent” or “good,” but the number of respondents who consider conditions to be merely “average” or “fair” increased from June.

Overall Rating of Current Business Conditions of CompanyExcellent Good Average Fair

August 2017 45.8% 39.6% 8.3% 6.3%

June 2017 38% 58% 4% 0%

April 2017 36% 41% 18% 5%

February 2017 47.4% 42.1% 10.5% 0%

December 2016 43% 42% 0% 15%

October 2016 50% 33% 0% 17%

July 2016 18% 61% 9% 12%

April 2016 25% 55% 7% 13%

February 2016 20% 60% 8% 12%

December 2015 25% 60% 10% 5%

October 2015 25% 55% 15% 5%

August 2015 30% 55% 10% 5%

Janu

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SIA Security Market Index, August 2017 Source: SIA Security Market Index, August 2017

Confidence in the security industry dropped slightly in August 2017. While any Index score above 50 indicates a primarily positive attitude about the industry, confidence has remained largely stagnant over the past year, with Indexes mainly in the mid-60s.

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analytics could help them achieve true real-time situational awareness and accelerate emergency response actions.” The connection to IT infrastructure goes further than business applications as well. Another respondent said that “customers now care about cyber. Some vendors… now get it, that they have to care.” Regarding upcoming business conditions, the majority of SMI respondents are optimistic about the next three months, with most believing conditions will be “much better” (27%) or “a little better” (56%) in the next quarter. This confidence is slightly lower than in June, when 26% believed conditions would be “much better” and 61% hoped for “a little better” business conditions in three months’ time. Looking forward over the next year, 46% of respondents expect to increase their aggregate levels of capital spending for plants and equipment, with 52% expecting their

levels of spending to remain steady. This is a shift from June, when 56% of respondents foresaw increases in capital spending over the next 12 months.

To provide a broader view of business conditions, the Security Market Index also cross-checks against other surveys and reports from a select list of sources that generally match the time range and themes of the Index: • The Conference Board Consumer

Confidence Index ▲• The National Association of Realtors

Home Prices ▲• NAM Manufacturer’s Outlook Index ▼• The Conference Board Measure of CEO

Confidence ▼• Chief Executive’s CEO Confidence

Index ▼ While CEOs and manufacturers are becoming a little less enthusiastic about current conditions, consumers are slightly more positive. According to the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, consumer confidence now stands at a 16-year high with a rating of 121.1. Consumers’

Forecasts are largely positive for the next three months, with most respondents believing business conditions will be either “much better” or “a little better” throughout the next quarter.

■ Much Better 27%■ A Little Better 56%■ No Change 17%■ A Little Worse 0%■ Much Worse 0%

August 2017

■ Much Better 42.1%■ A Little Better 55.3%■ No Change 2.6%■ A Little Worse 0%■ Much Worse 0%

February 2017


April 2017


June 2017


New Orders

Product/Service Sales

New Product Intro

Employees/Hours

Capital Equip Spend

August 2017

80% Increase

81% Increase

71% Increase

73% Increase

48% Increase

June 2017

88% Increase

87% Increase

70% Increase

83% Increase

63% Increase

April 2017

95% Increase

95% Increase

71% Increase

59% Increase

23% Increase

February 2017

89% Increase

84% Increase

76% Increase

87% Increase

47% Increase

Among these five Index factors, security industry professionals are experiencing continued growth, but at a slower rate than in previous months. In August 2017, only 80 percent of survey respondents noted an increase in new orders, compared to 95 percent in April.


Expected Business Conditions for Company in Next Three Months

Percent of Respondents Saying They Will Increase Activity or Dollars in:

“(Customers) are lacking insight into how automation, data integration and analytics could help them achieve true real-time situational awareness and accelerate emergency response actions.”

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assessment of current conditions improved slightly in July as well: those saying business conditions are “good” increased from 30.6% in June to 33.3% in July, while those saying business conditions are “bad” remained unchanged at 13.5%. Over the short-term, consumers remain optimistic. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months increased from 20.1% to 22.9%, while those expecting conditions to worsen fell from 10% to 8.2% in July. Consumers looking to purchase a home may be out of luck, however, as the National Association of Realtors reports a “pitiful” lack of existing home supply. While the 2.2 million new jobs created in the U.S. over the past year have created significant interest in home purchases, the low supply has driven August home prices up 6.2% from the second quarter of 2016, with a national median existing single-family home price of $255,600 for the second quarter of 2017. Single-family home prices increased in 87% of measured markets over the past quarter. Amongst manufacturers and CEOs, the enthusiasm shown at the beginning of 2017 has started to abate amid a turbulent political climate, and many cited the current uncertainty as a concern to their businesses. The National Association of Manufacturers’ (NAM) Manufacturer’s Outlook Index dropped almost three points in the second quarter, from 63.5 in March to 60.9 in June. Overall, manufacturers remain largely upbeat, with 89.5% either somewhat or very positive about their company’s outlook. But while the positive outlook remains, 28.9% of manufacturers surveyed said they were “unsure” when asked whether the U.S. was headed in the right direction. Some respondents commented that while

they remain enthusiastic about some of the goals of the current Administration (tax reform, reductions in regulatory compliance), they have yet to see meaningful legislation passed.

Manufacturers were asked about regulatory actions taken by the Trump administration so far, and eight in 10 said they approved of such moves. More than 57% felt these actions aimed at reducing overall regulatory burdens would have a positive impact on companies’ abilities to expand, hire and spend more on capital equipment. The positive outlook from earlier in 2017 remains, and respondents are predicting that full-time employment will grow by 2.7% over the next 12 months, the fastest pace in the NAM survey’s history. Top challenges to manufacturers remain similar to previous quarters, with the majority of survey respondents citing rising health insurance costs as the top business challenge, followed by attracting and retaining a quality workforce. Manufacturers noted that their primary challenges in this area include workforce development, particularly educational preparation, candidates’ work ethic, and the overall pool

of qualified candidates. Regarding CEOs, confidence remains fairly high, but flat. According to Chief Executive’s CEO Confidence Index, CEOs’ confidence has been barely weakening month after month since March, finishing out July with a rating of 7.00, which is still significantly higher than a year ago (5.70 in August 2016). In July, 80% of CEOs expected their revenues to grow this year, down from 85% in April. CEOs of small companies are the most concerned about the future, rating their confidence in future business conditions a 6.79, compared with large companies at 7.00. CEOs are also in a “wait and see” pattern regarding regulations and the U.S. government, the report says. One respondent noted “Opportunities abound for the strategic and aggressive leader. But, declining integrity coupled with technological advances (are) a concern.” Another added: “It’s unclear what tomorrow will bring.” The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence had increased to prerecession highs in the first quarter of 2017, but it declined from 68 to 61 in the second quarter. CEOs’ appraisal of current economic conditions is waning, with 60% saying conditions were better compared to six months ago, down from 71% the first quarter. Forty-one percent expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, down from 65% in the first quarter. Profit expectations remain optimistic for 2017, however, with about 71% expecting profits to increase, compared to 75% last year. Among CEOs who expect profits to climb, 53% say market/demand growth will be the primary driving force, while 29% say cost reductions.

Behind the SIA Security Market IndexThe Security Market Index, a bi-monthly survey and report, measures overall industry confidence in addition to specifics by executives’ product and service focus. A select group of top leaders, representing the SIA membership, is surveyed throughout the month of publication via a series of emails with a link to an online and confidential questionnaire. Respondents can add comments to most recurring questions. When comments are referenced in this report, they are not attributed to any specific individuals or member firms. 1

SECURITY MARKET INDEX

The Security Industry Association (SIA) The Security

Industry Association (SIA) is the leading trade association in the electronic physical security

industry, with about 700 corporate and organizational

members.

SIA protects and advances its members’ interests by:

• Advocating for pro-industry policies and legislation on Capitol Hill and throughout the 50 states

• Producing leading-edge global market research

• Creating open industry standards that enable integration

• Advancing industry professionalism through

education and training• Opening global market

opportunities

For more information about this publication or SIA’s other research

and technology programs, products and services, contact

Ron Hawkins, SIA’s director of industry relations, at (301) 804-4713 or

[email protected].

For information on SIA membership

call us at (301) 804-4700 orvisit our website at

www.securityindustry.org.

Security Industry Association8405 Colesville Road, Ste. 500

Silver Spring, MD 20910Tel: (301) 804-4700

Fax: (301) 804-4701www.securityindustry.org

© Copyright 2017. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Table of Contents

SIA Security Market Index 1

Security Video 5

Access Control 6

Security Systems Integration 7

Security Consulting 7

Bonus: Vertical Sectors for Growth 8

A Bimonthly Measure from the Security Industry Association

August 2017

www.securityindustry.org

With the third quarter now in full swing, security industry leaders are feeling a slight drop in overall industry confidence. The Security

Industry Association Security Market Index (SMI) for August 2017 is 65.3, the lowest since October 2016’s Index of 63.9. However, any Index rating higher than 50 indicates security professionals are primarily confident in their business prospects. The drop in the Index overall can be attributed to slower increases in a number of areas, especially hours worked, capital equipment spending and R&D spending. The Security Market Index measures the current status and future expectations of security industry executives through a select survey of SIA members. The Index’s goal is to provide a macro-view of confidence levels in the security industry while closely examining nine specific business measures: • Number of employees or hours worked• Marketing spending• Product production or service output• Capital equipment spending• Product inventories or service backlogs

• R&D spending• New product or service introductions • Product or service sales • New orders or contracts In August, fewer SMI survey participants reported improvement in the majority of these measures compared to recent months. While most of the measures do show increases – in hours worked, marketing spending, product production, R&D spending, new product introductions, product or service sales and new orders – the degrees are much smaller than noted previously. Less than 73% reported increases in the number of employees or hours worked, compared to 83% in June 2017. One respondent noted that while the number of employees in the enterprise was climbing slightly, it takes more work to achieve than five years ago. Respondents reported much less R&D investment in August compared to previous months. Only 55.6% of respondents said they were increasing R&D spending, compared to 78% in June 2017. A few respondents noted that their product development was centering on developing new synergies and integrations

Security Industry Confidence Faces Slight Downturn

SIA Security Market Index, August 2017

Overall, the Index survey measures general business conditions but also gauges nine elements to reach one Index number that signals security industry executives’ confidence. The elements are:• Number of Employees or Hours Worked• Marketing Spending• Product Production/Service Output• Capital Equipment Spending• Product Inventories/Service Backlogs• R&D Spending• New Product/New Service Introductions• Product/Service Sales• New Orders/New Contracts


AUGUST 2017

JUNE 2017

65.3 68

Regarding current U.S. regulations and business climates, one CEO notes: “It’s unclear what tomorrow will bring.”

5

SECURITY VIDEO

New Sales and Orders on the Rise; Video Market Remains Optimistic

L ife is good in the video surveillance market right now, according to SMI participants. The majority of survey respondents consider current business conditions to be either “excellent” (54%) or

“good” (31%), and most are reporting increases in the number of employees or hours worked, product production, R&D spending, new product introductions, product/service sales and new orders. However, the levels of capital equipment spending and inventories are remaining primarily steady, with 62% reporting neither increases nor decreases in these areas. Marketing dollars are leveling out as well, with only 46% of survey respondents in the video surveillance segment reporting increases in marketing spending. Over the next three months, video surveillance professionals largely expect some improvement, with 62% of survey respondents believing business conditions will be at least “a little better.” Regarding capital spending on plants and equipment, 62% expect an increase in spending over the next 12 months compared to the last year. One respondent noted “large growth in the Edge security industry,”

INDEX COMPARISONSecurity Market Index, Video Surveillance Segment:

Security Market Index, Overall:

EXPECTED BUSINESS CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT THREE MONTHS

AUGUST 2017 - SMI Overall: Much Better:

A Little Better:

Video Surveillance Segment:Much Better:

A Little Better:

JUNE 2017 - SMI Overall: Much Better:

A Little Better:

Video Surveillance Segment:Much Better:

A Little Better:

The video surveillance segment of the Security Market Index continues to show optimism about upcoming business conditions that exceed the overall respondent base. In August, 93% of video surveillance respondents expect conditions to improve over the next three months, compared to 88% in June.

54

65.3

27%

31%

62%

52%

26%

25%

63%

61%

and others noted that while the Internet of Things presents an abundance of opportunity for integration and new product uses, users are slow to adopt these potential features. One feature that has been a point of some frustration between video surveillance system providers and end users is analytics, but video surveillance analyst Oliver Philippou at IHS Markit writes that advancements in deep-learning analytics could facilitate a leap forward. Deep-learning analytics appears to offer a level of accuracy and reliability not previously achieved by past analytics offerings, Philippou says, and these features could deliver 99.9% accuracy in certain tasks due to more intuitive algorithms and stronger processing power, which could deliver usable information in a fraction of the time used previously. “Facial recognition is an area that has benefited much from deep learning architecture,” writes Philippou. “Not only does deep learning increase the accuracy of facial recognition sensors, it also enables faces to be identified in larger and more crowded scenes. In the wake of recent terrorist attacks in crowded locations, this capability could radically change the whole approach to security monitoring, allowing law enforcement to track suspects with far greater speed and efficiency.”


6

ACCESS CONTROL

R&D Spending Slows for Access Control

A ccess control solutions providers are generally pleased with current business conditions, with 86% of

Security Market Index survey respondents in this area rating current conditions as either “excellent” or “good.” The majority of respondents reported increases in the number of employees or hours worked (86%), product production (86%), and spending on marketing (72%). Access control manufacturers also largely noted improvement in the number of new orders, product sales and product introductions. Inventory levels are remaining either level or increasing slightly. The pace of research and development has slowed in recent months, however, with only

57% of access control providers surveyed reporting an increase in R&D spending. According to a July Market Insight report from IHS Technology’s Jim Dearing, this could leave access control providers behind a potential wave of PIAM technology adoption. Physical Identity Access Management (PIAM) systems are geared to add a decision-making identity management layer on top of access control systems, which could then deploy identities and credentials, as well as assign access rights into vendor-independent access control systems. While global PIAM market revenues (excluding Asia-Pacific and Africa) amounted to just $136 million in 2016, IHS Markit forecasts this to grow rapidly to nearly $500 million by 2021. PIAM’s ability to link together and manage multiple brands of access control hardware could undermine some large manufacturers’ offerings, writes Dearing, an access control and fire analyst for IHS Markit. PIAM could

also enable enterprises to ease a transition between access control equipment and brands. If the adoption of PIAM systems continues to grow, larger suppliers may see a reduction in high-value projects from transportation, corporate and utilities sectors. IHS Markit estimates that the number of transportation sector access control projects that include some form of PIAM system will quadruple in the next five years. There are still boundaries to PIAM domination, however, especially the complexity to PIAM system implementation (and the associated costs) and the high level of collaboration needed between enterprises’ physical security and IT departments. “Connecting every access control system to the IT network and then also managing all the identities associated with the company via one system creates huge network risk,” writes Dearing. “If the system is hacked, suddenly every identity associated with the company is compromised. As a result, IT departments want to be assured that PIAM systems are completely devoid of cybersecurity vulnerabilities.” Dearing adds that PIAM presents an opportunity for physical access control suppliers – if they add some form of logical integration to their offerings, it may provide some of the key benefits of a PIAM system without the bill of a bespoke system, providing a unique selling point for cost-sensitive enterprises.

Business Conditions Expected in the Next Three MonthsMuch Better A Little Better

Access Control August 2017 31% 62%SMI Overall August 2017 27% 56%

Access Control July 2016 25% 55%SMI Overall July 2016 21% 64%


7

SECURITY SYSTEMS INTEGRATION

Integrators Hitting High Notes in R&D, New Orders

More than 70% of security systems integrators surveyed for the August 2017 Security Market Index

consider current business conditions to be “excellent,” and this is supported by overall growth across all nine of the business measures collected through the SMI survey. A further 14% consider conditions to be “good,” and only 15% consider current conditions to be “average.” Integrators are especially seeing increases in the number of employees or hours worked (86%), product or service production (80%), R&D spending (83%) and product or service sales (86%). All four of these exceed the overall SMI rates of increase for these measures (number of employee or hours worked: 72.9%; product production: 70.4%; R&D spending: 55.6%; product/service sales: 81%). All of the security systems integrators surveyed reported an increase in the number of new orders coming in, compared to 80.4% of SMI respondents overall. Compared to the overall Security Market

Index of 65.3, integrators are doing far better with a segment-specific Index of 79. Looking to the future, integrators remain optimistic, but a little more reserved. Fifty-seven percent expect business conditions in the next three months to be “a little better,” and 29% expect conditions to be “much better.” Regarding aggregate levels of capital spending on equipment over the next 12 months, 57% expect an increase in spending, while 43% expect spending levels to remain the same as the previous 12 months.

SECURITY CONSULTANTS

Business Picks Up as Enterprises Seek Security System Guidance

N ew consulting services are being launched to help accelerate security program improvements, says

one consultant surveyed for the Security Market Index. Customers are seeking recommendations and creative guidance on how to reap the most benefits from security systems and technology, says another. The majority of consultants believe current business conditions are either “excellent” (50%) or “good” (38%), and most are seeing modest increases in the number of employees or hours worked (63%) and service sales (63%). Consultants are, however, keeping spending levels relatively steady when it comes to R&D and marketing, and new product introductions are remaining flat as well. Few consultants reported an increase in marketing spending, and 63% reported they were holding spending steady in this

area. While one reported that marketing spending was “necessary to reach a wider audience,” others noted that low-cost marketing, such as social media and direct mail, was the new focus.

New sales and contracts were on the rise, with 63% of consultants reporting an increase in this area, compared with just 35% of consultants in July 2016. This is still behind the overall SMI rate of 81%, however.

SMI Overall: 65.3Security Systems

Integrators Segment: 79

Confidence in Current Business Conditions

SMI Overall: Excellent: 45.8%

Good: 39.6%Average: 8.3%

Fair: 6.3%

Security Systems Integrator Segment

Excellent: 71%Good: 14%

Average: 15%

The majority of security systems integrators consider current business conditions in August 2017 to be “excellent,” and within nine market indicators, the majority of integrators are seeing increases in the number of employees or hours worked, marketing spending, R&D spending, and sales. Source: SIA Security Market Index, August 2017

New Sales and ContractsIncrease

Consulting August 2017 63%SMI Overall August 2017 81%Consulting July 2016 35%SMI Overall July 2016 70%


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Where are the untapped markets for security industry growth? The August 2017 SIA Security Market Index survey asked participants which vertical market segment holds the

greatest potential for growth for their business, and the office and industrial market was the top response, with 35% of respondents

citing this as the market with the most potential. Government and military installations closely followed, with 23% of respondents looking for growth in that vertical. Other respondents cited top growth possibilities in the finance sector, critical infrastructure, mass transit and construction fields.

BONUS

Where Do You See the Greatest Potential for Growth?

Vertical Markets with the Greatest Potential for Security Sales Growth

Office and Industrial 35%

Retail 6%

Government 23%

Residential 4%

Other 12%

Health Care 18%

Education 2%


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