1. 2 Prepared for: International Sweetener Colloquium Presenter: Paul Meyers February 10, 2009.
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Transcript of 1. 2 Prepared for: International Sweetener Colloquium Presenter: Paul Meyers February 10, 2009.
1
2
Prepared for: International Sweetener Colloquium
Presenter: Paul Meyers
February 10, 2009
3
Soybeans
4
Monthly Average of Nearby Soybean FuturesMonthly Average of Nearby Soybean Futures
4.25
5.25
6.25
7.25
8.25
9.25
10.25
11.25
12.25
13.25
14.25
15.25
1/00 1/01 1/02 1/03 1/04 1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09
MONTHLY1/00 - 1/09
DOLLARS PER BUSHEL
5
Monthly Average of Nearby Soybean Oil FuturesMonthly Average of Nearby Soybean Oil Futures
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1/00 1/01 1/02 1/03 1/04 1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09
MONTHLY1/00 - 1/09
CENTS PERPOUND
7
RBD PALM OIL PRICES, CIF, U.S. PORTSRBD PALM OIL PRICES, CIF, U.S. PORTSRBD PALM OIL PRICES, CIF, U.S. PORTS
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
10/00 10/01 10/02 10/03 10/04 10/05 10/06 10/07 10/08
MONTHLY10/00 - 1/09
CENTS PERPOUND
8
ANNUAL U.S. SOYBEAN BALANCE SHEET ANNUAL U.S. SOYBEAN BALANCE SHEET
03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 * 08/09*
Acreage (Mil.) Planted 73.4 75.2 72.0 75.5 64.7 75.7 Harvested 72.5 74.0 71.3 74.6 64.1 74.6
Yield (Bu./A.) 33.9 42.2 43.0 42.9 41.7 39.6
-----------------------------------Million Bushels--------------------------------
Production 2,454 3,124 3,068 3,197 2,677 2,959Beginning Stocks 178 112 256 449 574 205 Supply 1/ 2,638 3,242 3,327 3,655 3,261 3,173
Crush 1,530 1,696 1,739 1,806 1,801 1,670Export 885 1,103 947 1,118 1,161 1,140Other Use 111 187 192 157 94 155 Total Use 2,526 2,986 2,878 3,081 3,056 2,965
Ending Stocks 112 256 449 574 205 208
End Stocks/ 4.4 8.6 15.6 18.7 6.7 7.0 % Of UseChi. Cash Price 8.23 5.93 5.65 6.96 12.58 ($/Bu.)
*Connell Estimates
1/ Includes imports.
9.25-9.65
9
USDA 2008 U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION ESTIMATES AND 2008/09 U.S. SOYBEAN CARRYOVER STOCKS ESTIMATESUSDA 2008 U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION ESTIMATES AND 2008/09 U.S. SOYBEAN CARRYOVER STOCKS ESTIMATES
Date
140
Carryover Stocks Estimates
3,105
3,105
U.S. 2008 Soybean
-----------------------------million bushels----------------------------
185
175
May 9
U.S. 2008/09 Soybean
October 10
2,959
220
205
205
205
225
2,921
November 10
December 11
2,973
3,000
June 10
July 11
Production Estimates
August 12
135
135
October 28
2,921
September 12
January 12
2,934
2,983
2,938
10
U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTIONU.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION
*USDA Estimate
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
2800
2900
3000
3100
3200
3300
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08*
YEARS
MILLION BUSHELS
11
U.S. SOYBEAN EXPORTSU.S. SOYBEAN EXPORTS
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08*
YEARS
MILLION BUSHELS
*Connell Estimate
12
SOUTH AMERICAN SOYBEAN PRODUCTIONSOUTH AMERICAN SOYBEAN PRODUCTION
Brazil 57.5
44.0
3.8
1.3
106.6
U.S. 80.5
-44
+24
4.0
2.0 1.0
6.8
CROP YEAR% Change
08/0707/08*
115.6
1.6
6.2
86.8
-7
+11
59.0
48.8
61.0 -6
-546.2
72.8
115.0103.2
83.4
53.0
39.0
57.0
40.5
3.6
2.1
*Connell estimate.
Total
Argentina
Paraguay
98.0
85.5
Bolivia
--------------million metric tonnes---------
COUNTRY 04/05 05/06 06/07 08/09*
13
CHINA: SOYBEAN IMPORTSCHINA: SOYBEAN IMPORTSCHINA: SOYBEAN IMPORTS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08*
OCT-SEP YEARS
MIL. TONNES
*Projected.
14
U.S. SOYBEAN CRUSHINGSU.S. SOYBEAN CRUSHINGS U.S. SOYBEAN CRUSHINGS
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08*
YEARS
MILLIONBUSHELS
*Connell Estimate
15
U.S. SOYBEAN CARRYOVERSTOCKS-TO-USE RATIO
U.S. SOYBEAN CARRYOVERSTOCKS-TO-USE RATIO
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08*
YEARS
RATIO PERCENT
* Connell Estimate.
16
ANNUAL U.S. SOYBEAN OIL BALANCE SHEETANNUAL U.S. SOYBEAN OIL BALANCE SHEET
07/08 08/09* 09/10*
--------------Million Pounds-------------
1,779 1,675 1,730
Beginning Stocks 3,085 2,483 2,088Production 20,568 19,095 19,725Imports 65 60 60 Supply 23,718 21,638 21,873
Biodiesel Use 2,981 3,100 3,150 Total Domestic Use 18,327 17,850 17,950
Exports 2,908 1,700 1,850 Total Use 21,235 19,550 19,800
Ending Stocks 2,483 2,088 2,073
52.1 30.8 28.5-30.5
*Connell Estimates
Decatur Cash Price (¢/lb.)
Oct-Sep Crush (Mil. Bu.)
17
U.S. SOYBEAN OIL USED IN BIODIESEL PRODUCTIONU.S. SOYBEAN OIL USED IN BIODIESEL PRODUCTION
50
250
450
650
850
1050
1250
1450
1650
1850
2050
2250
2450
2650
2850
3050
3250
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08*
OCT-SEP YEAR
MIL. POUNDS
U.S. SOYBEAN OIL USED IN BIODIESEL PRODUCTION
*Projected.
18
U.S. SOYBEAN OIL EXPORTSU.S. SOYBEAN OIL EXPORTS
*Connell Estimate
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08*
YEARS
MILLIONPOUNDS
19
MONTHLY U.S. SOYBEAN OIL STOCKS,BEGINNING OF MONTH
MONTHLY U.S. SOYBEAN OIL STOCKS,BEGINNING OF MONTH
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
3400
3600
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
2006/07-2008/09
06/07 07/08 08/09MILLIONPOUNDS
20
U.S. SOYBEAN PLANTED ACREAGEU.S. SOYBEAN PLANTED ACREAGE
*USDA Estimate
U.S. SOYBEAN PLANTED ACREAGE
57
59
61
63
65
67
69
71
73
75
77
79
81
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09*
YEARS
MILLION ACRES
21
U.S. SOYBEAN BALANCE SHEETU.S. SOYBEAN BALANCE SHEET
Item
Acreage (Mil. Acres)
Planted 64.7 75.7 79.5 79.5
Harvested 64.1 74.6 78.5 78.0
Yield (Bu./A.) 41.7 39.6 42.0 39.5
Supply (Mil.bu.)
Beginning Stocks 574 205 208 208
Production 2677 2959 3295 3080
Total Supply 1/ 3261 3173 3510 3295
Use (Mil.bu.)
Crush 1801 1670 1730 1700
Exports 1161 1140 1220 1170
Other Use 94 155 175 160
Total Use 3056 2965 3125 3030
Ending Stocks (Mil.bu.) 205 208 385 265
Cash Prices
Loan Rate ($/bu.) 5.00 5.00
Chicago Soybeans ($/bu.) 12.58 9.45
Decatur Soybean Meal 48% ($/ton) 333 286
Decatur Soybean Oil (¢/lb.) 52.0 30.8
*Connell Estimates
1/ Includes imports.
2007/08MostLikely
LowYield2008/09*
9.50-10.25
280-295
36.0-38.0
2009/10*
7.75-8.50
242-257
28.5-30.5
5.00 5.00
22
Nearby Futures Price Forecasts for Soybeans and Soybean Products
Nearby Futures Price Forecasts for Soybeans and Soybean Products
Oct-Dec
Apr-Jun*Jul-Sep*Oct-Dec*
2010Jan-Mar* 30.0-32.0 246-261
10.65
Soybean Oil (¢/lb.)
30.07.40
29343.937.434.1
8.84
Soybeans ($/bu.) Soybean Meal ($/ton)
7.79215212240
2007Jan-Mar
57.261.354.233.6
13.3713.8713.188.97
Apr-Jun
300-310
Jul-SepOct-Dec
2008Jan-Mar
361358350
265
32.0-33.5
* Connell estimates
Apr-JunJul-Sep
2009Jan-Mar* 9.50-10.00
9.25-10.00 31.5-33.5
8.00-8.75
287-3028.50-9.257.75-8.50
30.5-32.5 265-28029.0-31.0 243-258