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Compilation of Natural Gas Statistics Compilation of Natural Gas Statistics in Norwayin Norway

Prepared for the UNSC side event on natural gas

Olav Ljones Deputy director general, Statistics NorwayChair, Oslo Group on Energy statisticsNew York, 27.02.2012

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Production of crude oil and natural gas. Million sm3 o.e. 1971-2010

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50

100

150

200

250

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71

19

73

19

75

19

77

19

79

19

81

19

83

19

85

19

87

19

89

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91

19

93

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95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

Natural gas Oil (incl. NGL and condensate)

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The bigges exporters of natural gas. Billion sm3. 2009.

24,3

29,5

30,3

32,4

35,7

52,6

68,2

71,4

99,9

179,3

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Australia

Malaysia

Turkmenistan

Netherlands

Indonesia

Algerie

Qatar

Canada

Norway

Russia

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The extraction industry's share of total GDP. 2010

20 %

The extraction industry's share of total investments. 2010

25 %

The extraction industry's share of total export. 2010

45 %

The extraction industry's share of the Government's revenues. 2010

26 %

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Energy Balance for Norway

• Published twice a year– Preliminary: 4-5 months after end of year– Final: 22-23 months after end of year

• Links:– http://www.ssb.no/english/subjects/01/03/10/energiregn_en/– http://www.ssb.no/english/subjects/01/03/10/energiregn_en/tab-2011-12-12-

01-en.html

• Summary: – More than 90 % of natural gas production is exported– 4-5 % of production used within oil- and gas extraction (for electricity

production, flaring, or venting) – 1 % was used in thermal power plants in 2010– The rest (around 1 %) is used in manufacturing industries, transport etc.

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Export of Natural Gas

• Around 93 % of the primary production of natural gas is exported

• Most of the gas is exported in pipelines to Europe

– Ownership: the Gassled partnership

– Operator: Gassco AS

• Some LNG production, but still a small share of total production

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Final consumption of energy products (Source: Energy Balance)

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The picture becomes different if consumption in energy industries is included

Energy consumption 2010, incl. energy consumed in energy producing industries (oil and gas extraction etc.) Per cent

Oil products31 %

Fuel wood4 %

Electricity40 %

Natural gas18 %

Coal / coke2 %

District heating and other gases

5 %

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Most natural gas is used within oil- and gas extraction

Natural consumption by user group. Mill. Sm3

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Consumption in oil and gas extraction Natural gas which is flared off

Electricity / heat production Manufacturing industries

Used for non-energy purposes (methanolprod.) Other user groups

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Consumption of natural gas makes up an increasing share of total greenhouse gases in Norway – This is due to extensive, and increasing oil- and gas extraction

Greenhous gases in Norway, 1000 tonnes of CO2 equivalents

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Greenhouse gases from naturalgas

Greenhouse from other sources

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Challenges in Norwegian gas statistics

• Challenge:– Large statistical differences in the energy balance!

– Supply > Use (sometimes Use > supply)

Ongoing quality project to try to find the causes for the large differences

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Statistical difference for natural gas in the energy balance.

Mill. Sm3. 1994-2010

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Statistical differences

Final consumption, incl. non-energy use

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Large statistical differences makes emission calculations more uncertain

• Emissions becomes different if it is calculated by using– reference approach (data from the supply side) – sectorial approach (calculations based on consumption data)

• Supply > Consumption– Usually the supply (production) is larger than consumption, which

means higher emissions in reference approach.

• Statistics Norway uses sectorial approach (consumption)– Statistics Norway relies most on calculations based on sectorial

approach, however, we often get question because reference approach is used as a control of the results.

• This is one aspect which emphasizes the needs of high quality gas statistics

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Statistical difference could be related to many fields and complexity in gas- and pipeline structure in Norway

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Official statistics on natural gas (1 of 3)

• Export of natural gas– Monthly: sm3

– Quarterly: sm3, NOK (prices)– Secondary source: Division for external trade (Statistics Norway)

Primary source: Gassco, survey (companies)– Link: http://www.ssb.no/english/subjects/09/05/muh_en/

• Domestic use of natural gas– Annual: sm3, GWh– Source: Survey (retailers)– Link: http://www.ssb.no/naturgass_en/

• Industrial energy use– Annual: GWh, NOK– Source: Survey (companies)– Note: Includes intermediate consumption for ALL energy products, not only natural

gas– Link: http://www.ssb.no/english/subjects/10/07/indenergi_en/

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Official statistics on natural gas (2 of 3)

• Structural business statistics– Annual: NOK (underlying data in sm3 and NOK)– Sources: Survey, Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, Ministry of Petroleum and

Energy, Gassco– Link: http://www.ssb.no/oljev_en/

• Investment statistics– Quarterly: NOK (both accrued and estimated future investments in the oil and gas

activity)– Source: Survey– Link: http://www.ssb.no/english/subjects/10/06/20/oljeinv_en/

• Energy balance and energy accounts– Twice a year (preliminary and final figures): sm3, GWh and PJ– Sources: Many different sources. Mainly other statistics produced in the Division for

Energy and Environmental statistics. + Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, Ministry of Petroleum and Energy, Gassco

– Link: http://www.ssb.no/english/subjects/01/03/10/energiregn_en/

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Official statistics on natural gas (3 of 3)

• Production volume index – Monthly: Index

– Source: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate

– Link: http://www.ssb.no/english/subjects/08/04/pii_en/

• Producer price index– Monthly: Index

– Source: World Gass Intelligence

– Link: http://www.ssb.no/english/subjects/08/02/20/ppi_en/

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Main Sources - Summary

Administrative sources•Production, flaring: sm3, tonne, MJ

•Extraction industries own use: sm3, tonne, MJ

•Transport of natural gas in pipelines: sm3, NOK

•Export: sm3, NOK

Survey (companies)•Prices on natural gas

•Costs and investments in the extraction industry

•Domestic consumption

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The policy relevance of monthly data on natural gas• Reliable and detailed data on natural gas is important inn order to

monitor the revenues, production and export from month to month

• Users of monthly data on natural gas include:– The Government

Ministry of Finance Ministry of Petroleum and Energy

– Oil and gas companies– Media– International Agencies

• In Statistics Norway the monthly figures are important in:– The Quarterly National Accounts– Research and forecasting – Data reporting to international agencies

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Main challenges for Norway

1. Statistical difference in the energy balance (mentioned earlier)

2. Prices on natural gas1. Several large revisions of export prices on natural gas

• This have led to large revisions in the Quarterly National Accounts

2. Inconsistency in prices across statistics• External trade vs. structural business statistics

3. What is the correct price?• Have to adjust for transport costs.

• External trade: Prices are measured at the border• National Accounts: Prices are measured at the production site

• Internal sales within co-operations? What is the market price?

The problems with large revisions in prices and inconsistencies across statistics has led to the need for a thorough investigation of the prices on natural gas

Ongoing project to try to enhance the quality and consistency of prices on natural gas

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Report to JODI Gas

• First report from Statistics Norway in October 2009

• Production of natural gas– Preliminary figures collected from The Ministry of Petroleum and Energy

(press release between 10th and 20th, M+1)– Few problems meeting the deadline for JODI Gas– Preliminary figures very similar to final figures reported to MOS

• Export of natural gas– Preliminary figures collected from the Division for external trade in Statistics

Norway– Few problems meeting the deadline for JODI Gas– However: Some problems with LNG → Finding the right country of

destination for LNG is often challenging– Preliminary figures very similar to final figures reported to MOS

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The Oslo Group on Energy Statistics

• The International Recommendations for Energy Statiscs (IRES)

• Adopted by the UNSC February 2011• Available at: http://www.og.ssb.no/iresmainpage• Some of the contents in IRES:

• SIEC – Standard International Energy Product Classification• Definition of energy products• Measurement units and conversion factors• Definition of energy flows (production, export, import, consumption++)• Data collection strategies

• The Energy Statistics Compilers Manual (ESCM)• Ongoing work• Information available at: http://www.og.ssb.no/escmmainpage

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Thank you for your attention!