09_Spectrum Policy and Recommendations ErasmoRojas
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Transcript of 09_Spectrum Policy and Recommendations ErasmoRojas
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SpectrumPolicyandRecommendations
Director, Latin America & Caribbean
. .
1#Mobile Broadband Outlook for the Americas, Rio de Janeiro, 26 April 2010
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LatinAmericachallen es
broadandservices
spectrumcaps
Nospectrumauctionfor4G;likelybandsare2,5
,
. .
Lowbroadbandpenetration(lessthan10%)
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Mobilit MattersMobileCommunications=ReachandCostEffectiveness
,
economicimpact
BroadbandCommunications=GameChangingCapability
[high
speed
services
facilitates
education,
health
care,
, ,productivity]
MobileBroadband=TheNextIconicTechnology[maybehuge,combiningbestofbothmobileand
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TheBenefitsofMobileBroadband
oremerg ngeconom es: to on
and10to14millionjobs
For
Latin
America:
$US
50
to
$70
billion
and
an
. .
o n
e or
o
e
pr va e
sec or
an
governmen
neededtoincreasebroadbandpenetration
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GlobalTrends:
,
15minuteswatchingYouTube=1,000minutesvoice
communications bothconsume100MB (Rysavy2009)
Monthlyuse,includingsmartphonesandlaptops,couldrisefrom(Cisco2009)
Anaveragesubscribercouldconsume:
55MBwithemail ermonth
200MBwithwebbrowsing
2.7GBwithInternetradio
9GBwithvideo 27GBwithHDmoviedownloads(Rysavy2008)
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SpectrumisaCriticalInput:
s ma eso pec rum ee s
1720 MHz
y : e ween an z
1280 MHz760-840
MHz
Thesenumbersdonotaccountformultipleproviders.Ifthreeproviders,theestimatedneedin2020increasesby280MHz
TheconservativeestimatefornextyearsneedisthreetimesgreaterthantheaverageallocationinLatinAmerica
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* ITU-R M.2078 report
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O tionsforNetworkO erators
Chargemoreforpeakhourtransmission
Encourageuseoffemtocellsbysubscribers
Buildmorecellsites
Employnewtechnologies(HSPA+,LTE)
Usemorespectrum(however.)
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WhyNotHaveGeneralSpectrum
ggrega on m s
players
in
a
market
and
they
may
promote
inefficient
entry
Limitingspectrumheldbyincumbentsmeanstheymusttradeoffbetween2G/3Gandadvancedservices
Ifvoiceserviceisdiminished,operatorsrisklosingamainsourceofbusinessandtheirabilitytoinvestinfuture
Ifadvancedserviceisdiminished,lessadoptionand
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oppor un es o mprove verage evenue er ser
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M a rin th Eff ct : Th M l
Abottomupcostmodelforahypotheticalplayerthatis
spec rumcons ra ne an n eres e nprov ngan
advancedservice(LTE)
Estimatesthecostofprovidingthisserviceunderdifferent
, ,
.
,highcosttoprovideservice=highpricetoconsumer
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Parameters
of
the
Model
Interestratepaidbythefirm(basedonUSFcases)
Geographicarea(largestmetroareas) Datasubscribers basedon o ulation marketshare
wirelesspenetration,datapenetration)
Cellsitecosts(construction,installation,maintenance)
Userspersitefordifferentspectrumallocations
Ca italex ensesin ears01and ears45
Operatorhitsbreakevenbyendofyear8
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A lication
and
Results
Themodelisappliedtothreecountries:
,
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MinimumMonthlyCostofLTEServiceUnder
D erentSpectrumA ocat ons
2x20
MHz
2x15
MHz
2x10
MHz
2x5
MHz$X $1.3X $2X $4X
Ingeneral,acrossallmarketsstudied,adecreaseinspectrumavailablefrom2x20MHzto2x10MHzresultsinadoublingofthecost.
Afurtherdecreaseintheamountofspectrumfrom2x10
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.
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Alternatives
to
S ectrum
LimitsI. SetAsides
Oftenaccompaniedbyseriousproblems,suchas pricedistortions(winnerspayinglessthanmarketvalue)
collusion
IntheU.S.,the1995PCSCBlockfailure
n ana a, e auc on,w nonewen ran na onw ean w
seriouspricedistortions
InPeru,25MHzweresetasideinthe1900MHzbandforanew
providerinSeptember2008;ithasbeenauctionedtwicesincewithno
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Alternatives
to
S ectrum
LimitsII.AntitrustPolicy
Should
be
market
specific.
The
FCC
approach:considerhowatransactionwillaffectcompetition
bydefiningrelevantmarket,lookingatmarket
power
of
incumbents,
analyze
barriers
to
entry
and
po en a compe ors,ana yzee c enc es
o cyma ers
must
a ance
potent a
or
mar et
poweragainstpotentialforefficiencygains
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Alternatives
to
S ectrum
LimitsIII.AuctionSpecificRules
Itiscriticalthatpolicymakersrecognizetheneedsoflikelybidders.Forex.,spectrumblocksizesneedtosufficientlylargeornewserv ces.
bidder,keepinginmindtheabovepoint.
DigitalBritainReportprovidesamodel:combine2.6GHzand800MHz(TheBigAuction),witha2x65auctioncap.
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SelectedSpectrumCapsinLatinAmerica
Country
Cap,MHzComments
Ar entina 50Secomhasannounceditwilllicense1.7/2.1GHzbandin
Brazil 85Increasedfrom50to85fortheendof2007 3Gspectrum
auction. Planningauctionstructureof2.6GHzbandbased
Chile 60
Twooperatorsgot90MHz;Nextel(60MHz)andVTR(30
MHz).
Planning
structure
of
700
MHz
and/or
2.6
GHz
band
Incumbents excludedfrom2.5GHz60MHzauctionthat
Twosimultaneousauctions:30MHzin1900MHzand90
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. .
Source: Telefonica, National Regulators Websites, Comision Federal de Competencia (Mexico) ; Arthur D Little Spectrum Report, April 2010
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Updateon2.6GHzbandinLatinAmerica
CountryEstimated
auctionComments
Brazil 2012/13
Anatelproposed to allocate 140MHz(2x70MHz)for mobile services.2x60MHz
would be assigned towards the
end of
2012
and
2x10MHz
in
2015.
Local
operadoresplanto launch LTEbefore 2013.
Subtelsuggested to auction this bandin2010.Subtelhasalready channelized
e t e2.6GHz an ase on ITUOption 1 2paire oc so 76MHzan one oc of 42MHzTDD).
Mxico 2010/11
CofetelandSCTevaluate therenewal ofthelicense ofMultivision MMDS
operator asthewhole bandhasbeen underutilized.Regulators estimate thatey w ge a g c un o s an ree o auc on n o ow ng
Option 1recommendation.
Colombia 2010
MINTICis auctioning 60MHzinthis bandBUT haschosen option 3ofITU
recommendation andhasestablished anewcap of60MHzto preclude
.
Chileanplanfor2.6GHzband
(Resolutions479/05and733/07):
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2.496MHz 2690MHz
: : :
2572MHz 2614MHz
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Summary
Spectrumisacriticalinputformobileservices;demand
faroutstripscurrentsupply.
Lackofspectrumhindersnewadvancedservices.
Spectrumaggregationlimitsimposeseriouscostson
existing
providers,
which
are
paid
by
consumers.
Inmarketswithconstrainedproviders,consumersmay
paytwiceasmuchforLTEifspectrumislimitedtoonly
2x5MHzascomparedto2x10MHz,andfourtimesas
muchascomparedto2x20MHz.
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Obrigado!
Erasmo RojasDirector, Latin America & [email protected]
1#Mobile Broadband Outlook for the Americas, Rio de Janeiro, 26 April 2010