071114 Goldman Sachs Conference

28
Goldman Sachs Conference São Paulo, November 14, 2007

Transcript of 071114 Goldman Sachs Conference

Page 1: 071114   Goldman Sachs Conference

Goldman Sachs Conference

São Paulo, November 14, 2007

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value”

Information and ProjectionThis notice may contain estimates for future events. These estimates merely reflect the expectations

of the Company’s management, and involve risks and uncertainties. The Company is not responsible

for investment operations or decisions taken based on information contained in this communication.

These estimates are subject to changes without prior notice.

This material has been prepared by TAM S.A. (“TAM“ or the “Company”) includes certain forward-

looking statements that are based principally on TAM’s current expectations and on projections of

future events and financial trends that currently affect or might affect TAM’s business, and are not

guarantees of future performance. They are based on management’s expectations that involve a

number of business risks and uncertainties, any of each could cause actual financial condition and

results of operations to differ materially from those set out in TAM’s forward-looking statements. TAM

undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forwardlooking statements.

This material is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation

or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Likewise it does not give and

should not be treated as giving investment advice. It has no regard to the specific investment

objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. No representation or warranty, either

express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information

contained herein. It should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own

judgment.

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Since 2003 we have the leadership in the domestic market...

14.4

20.3

42.4

20.7

8.5

14.5

40.3

30.6

13.5

38.9

11.7

34.6

12.2

33.6

19.4

33.0

8.8

31.1

22.3

35.8

25.5

25.9

41.3

10.3

34.0

47.8

39.2

48.8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Jan-Oct2007

0

20

40

60

80

100%

Domestic Market Share (RPKs)

TAMGOLVARIGVASPTRANSBRASILBRAOther

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...and we became the leading Brazilian carrier in the international market as of July 2006

75.0

7.4

82.1

13.9

87.4

12.5

87.9

12.0

85.4

14.5

77.0

18.4

50.4

7.3

37.3

6.2

12.5

14.7

66.6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Jan-Oct2007

0

20

40

60

80

100%

Domestic Market Share (RPKs)

TAMGOLVARIGVASPTRANSBRASILOther

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2007 has been a year of many challenges...

Macro Economy

Airline Industry

Airlines Brazil

TAM

High volatility (e.g. subprime crisis)

Fuel prices

Scarcity of aircraft, seats, etc due to overall growth in the sector

Conclusion of the “Varig” question mark Changes in the governing structure of the

industry Collapse of BRA

Impact of infrastructure on operations

Accident

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… but despite the difficulties in the 3Q07, TAM remained above the average load factor for the industry

Jul Aug Sep

74

62

66

Domestic Load Factor

Jul Aug Sep

76

67

71

International Load Factor

71

59

64

72

6366

TAM’s Load Factor Market Average Load Factor

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TAM

2005 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q0715

20

25

30

35

Yield scheduled domesticR$ Cents

Our yield environment for the scheduled domestic market is recovering

2Q vs. 3Q+ 9.4%

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CASKex-fuel

1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07

17.4318.69 18.43

16.9815.92 16.52 16.54

0

5

10

15

20

Total CASK (BR GAAP - R$ cents)

3Q06 vs 3Q07

-7.3%

-10.2%

Our CASK decreased 10% compared to 3Q06…

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3Q06 3Q07

569

313

0

200

400

600

EBITDAR(BR GAAP - R$ M)

3Q06 3Q07

349

57

0

100

200

300

400

EBIT(BR GAAP - R$ M)

Margin over Net Revenue

3Q06 3Q07

213

49

0

25

50

75

100

Net Income(BR GAAP - R$ M)

-45% -84% -77%

27%

15%17%

3%

2%

10%

… but margins reduced, compared to 3Q06 in BR GAAP…

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3Q06 3Q07

549

306

0

200

400

600

EBITDAR(US GAAP - R$ M)

3Q06 3Q07

382

113

0

100

200

300

400

EBIT(US GAAP - R$ M)

26%

18%

6%

15%

3Q06 3Q07

229

143

0

40

80

120

160

200

Net Income(US GAAP - R$ M)

7%

-44%

11%

…and in US GAAP

Margin over Net Revenue

-38%-70%

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BR GAAP Leasing IncomeTaxes

Others US GAAP

49

129

-46

11 143

0

50

100

150

200

Net Profit Reconciliationto US GAAP

41 aircrafts are reclassified as capital leases as per SFAS nº

13

The main difference between BR and US GAAP is the accounting treatment of aircraft leasing

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3Q06 3Q07

1.41

0.32

Earnings per shareBR GAAP (R$)

3Q06 3Q07

1.52

0.95

Earnings per shareUS GAAP (R$)

Our earnings per share decreased compared to 3Q06

-77% -38%

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In the past 31 years, TAM has shown its ability to grow and adapt

Our purpose today...

We will be discussing our actions in 2007

...demonstrating what we have done differently

...and what we are going to do in the future

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We have changed from only a high end premium customer focus to serving the full spectrum

TAM

Premium / Business

Commodity / Leisure

Reg

iona

lInternational

First class

Business class

Economy class

Commercial

agreements

with

regional

carriers

TAM’s Origin

TAM up to 1998

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As Brazil becomes “stable”, the leisure segment will become increasingly more important

Leis

ure

Bus

ines

s

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E

17.9

26.6 27.025.2

28.2

35.4

39.843.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

Domestic Market Passenger Mix (RPK M)

CAGR

11%

21%

Travell ing is one of the top “desire” items for consumption

* TAM Estimates

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We will be expanding our fare bundle strategy for the domestic market in 2008...

Addition of extra features in the segmented bundles

Ability to “sell up” categories

Potential for further revenue increase

Harmonization of the fare bundle strategy to TAM Fidelidade growth

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...increasing capillarity of sales through our new methods of payments... Launched new methods of payment in May 2007

Payment at lottery stores Approximately 9,000 stores in Brazil

Already functioning as bank correspondent Billing slipsAutomatic debit Financing for passengers via direct consumer credit with the

main retail banks

Focus on leisure/lower income segments

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...optimizing the utilization of our aircraft on off peak hours

* Average day in past month

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2350

55

60

65

70

75

80%

Domestic load factor per hour

Off Peak Off Peak Off PeakPeakPeak

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We continue to deliver more efficient processes in order to focus on what the customer wants

Become preferred airline

carrier

Focus on customer needs

Translate into actions

Efficient Delivery

To be efficient means not only

reduce costs but also increase

the proportional benefits

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We are beginning to evaluate new potential business units in the company

TAM Linhas Aéreas

MRO(São Carlos)

Loyalty Program

HandlingCargo

Already structured as a business unit with focus in maximizing assets

None or little focus on selling services to third-parties

Not structured as business units

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We have gone through waves of development…

Turnaround process (2002 -2003) Overcapacity

Loss of founder

High costs

Low operational efficiency

Surviving

Assets optimization (2004 – 2007) Increase in domestic

load factor

Better aircraft utilization

Access to financial markets (equity and debt)

Compliance with SOX

IOSA certificate

Growing Profitability

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…but we have seen new and compelling horizons…

All companies compete in the same market…

Exploiting demand…

Making the value-cost trade-off…

Aligning the whole system of the company’s activities with either differentiation or low cost

Blue Ocean Strategy

Red Ocean is where...

Company creates an uncontested marketplace…

…Creating and capturing new demand…

Breaking the value-cost trade-off…

Aligning the whole system in pursuit of differentiation and low cost

Blue Ocean is where...

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…resulting in a new third wave

Unlocking Value

Opportunities for value generation (future) New passenger

segmentation

Cargo

Loyalty Program

Maintenance

Turnaround process (2002 -2003) Overcapacity

Loss of founder

High costs

Low operational efficiency

Surviving

Assets optimization (2004 – 2007) Increase in domestic

load factor

Better aircraft utilization

Access to financial markets (equity and debt)

Compliance with SOX

IOSA certificate

Growing Profitability

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Average domestic market share above 50% Average domestic load factor at approximately

70% Aircraft utilization per day (block hour) higher

than 13 hours Reduction of 7% in total CASK ex-fuel in BR

GAAP yoy Opportunity in the international market

Third frequency to ParisInauguration of two new international long

haul frequencies

Market demand growth from 10% to 15% (in RPK terms)

Guidance 2007

TAM

Market

We continue with our 2007 guidance, disclosed Dec 2006, demonstrating our commitment to investors

10.6%*

Accum. 07

• Since January• Milan since

March• Frankfurt (Nov)• Madrid (Dec)

48.8%*

70.0%

12.8

8.5%

* Jan – Oct Accumulated

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Maintain leadership in both domestic and international markets

ASK growth of

Domestic 14%

International 40%

Average load factor at approximately 70% overall

Reduction of 7% in total CASK ex-fuel in BR GAAP yoy

Three additional international destinations or frequencies in 2008

Domestic market demand growth from 8% to 12% (in RPK terms)

Guidance 2008

We have a positive outlook for 2008

Market

TAM

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310

80

13

3

14

87

6

4

18

101

4

20

104

4

22

110

4

24

113

8

24

115

3Q07 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

106 110

123128

136141

147

0

50

100

150

Total Fleet

Our growth plan is supported by a flexible fleet plan

B777 MD11 Airbus wide-body Airbus narrow-body F100

TAM will be monofleet

in the domestic

operations by 1Q08

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This is how we have been describing our strategy

Low Operating

Costs

UndisputableBetter Service

CompetitivePrices

Sustainable Strategyto Maintain Market

Leadershipand Prof itabi l i ty

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TAM: the best fitting product for the customer (and stakeholders) based on efficient delivery

Low Operating

Costs

UndisputableBetter Service

CompetitivePrices

Sustainable Strategyto Maintain Market

Leadershipand Prof itabil i ty