04 June 2020 © Crown copyright 2020 Dstl · demonstration of the Intelligent Ship (IS) techniques...
Transcript of 04 June 2020 © Crown copyright 2020 Dstl · demonstration of the Intelligent Ship (IS) techniques...
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© Crown copyright 2020 Dstl
04 June 2020
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Intelligent Ship Scenario
OFFICIAL
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Purpose of Intelligent Ship Scenario
• This scenario has been developed to provide a framework for
demonstration of the Intelligent Ship (IS) techniques and
technology that have been, and will be, developed under Phase
1 and Phase 2 of the project.
• The scenario will be refined throughout Phase 2 of the project as
and when it is understood which Agents for Decision Making
(ADeMs) will be taken forward under Phase 2 and their maturity
and readiness to be included in the Intelligent Ship AI Network
(ISAIN) environment.
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Scenario Background
• Blue Force Task group (TG) brought together and tasked to
support a humanitarian disaster relief mission.
• Environment
– Heightened tension with RED opposing forces contesting passage through a
200 mile exclusion zone
– Pirates operate with RED passive endorsement
• Intelligent Ship will be tasked to undertake a detached mission
– Plan overall mission
– Specific tasking for detached mission to gather information prior to TG
passage through contested waters
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Scenario Background
• IS specifically tasked to gather information in area with heightened
tension to support a disaster relief mission where pirates are known
to operate.
• Pre-Operation Planning
– Applications teamed with Humans used to provide background material
• Previous Patterns Of Life (POL)
• Experience of propagation environment
• Political Situation
• Encyclopaedic data
• Etc.
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Mission Objectives
• High Level Mission Objectives
– Transit area of heightened tension
– Collect intelligence data
– Protect ship during passage
• IS Objectives
– Gather information
– Identify requirements for Replenishment at Sea (RAS)
– Monitor ship systems
– Re-plan according to current situation (systems availability,
threats etc.)
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IS01 Information Gathering
OFFICIAL© Crown copyright 2020 Dstl
A civil war has broken out in an area which is critical to maritime trade and the world economy and on quickest route to provide aid to nation impacted by national disaster. Multiple factions are known to operate in the area. UK deploys Maritime Task Group (TG) to help with disaster relief, to maintain freedom of navigation and DETER aggression against non-combatant shipping. Prior to theatre entry by the TG a singleton intelligent Ship (IS) is tasked with information gathering
Variables Detail Comments
Red Force Intent All Red factions intent on provoking withdrawal or destruction of Blue Forces in order to secure political credibility
Red decisions to escalate are predetermined, rather than dynamic
Red Force Capability Mixture of conventional & remote piloted air systems, surface units, submarine and land launched anti-ship missiles.
Both sides with similar systems;
Blue Force Intent & capability
To both provide aid to nation impacted by natural disaster and maintain freedom of navigation, DETER red aggression and DEFENDMTG and non-combatant shipping
Blue is expected to gather information, use minimum force to DEFEND, but DETER may require use of considerable force
Key events during vignette
Confusing complex and congested battlespace, with multiple non-combatants, varied platforms, and attacks on defended assetsAttacks, probes, pop-ups and land based strikes from all directions
TG will split devoting appropriate assets to disaster relief and patrolling contested sea areas
Validation Consistent with Fighting Instructions description of likely TG operations.
Similar to other scenarios used elsewhere (Ops Room Optimisation WP5; and Threat Evaluation and Weapons Assignment Ph2); 7
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Pre-Operation Planning
• Applications teamed with Humans used to provide
background material
– Previous Patterns Of Life
– Experience of propagation environment
– Political Situation
– Encyclopaedic data
– Etc.
• Applications teamed with Humans to develop
Courses of Action (COAs) based on mission
objectives
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Int’ Ship CoreIntelligent Ship pre-op planning
OFFICIAL© Crown copyright 2020 Dstl
AI/Human Functions
ISAIN
TACNAV
Courses of action / mission planning aides
Programme Nelson Display & track servicesCommand lab
Input Output
Mission Objectives
Courses of Action
Intel’gathering
plan
Counter detection
course
RAS activities required
Advice and options provided by Human-AI Dialogue based on compiled relevant information
Platform system AIs providing status and availability of equipment
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IS01 Pre Op Planning
OFFICIAL© Crown copyright 2020 Dstl
Intelligent
Ship
RED territory
Red Coast
Guard Corvette
MLA
Wave Tanker
Destroyer (DD)
(AAWC)
Carrier
(MEU)
Frigate
Blue territoryRed territory
Fast Jet patrol
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1/ IS Op Planning
• Tactical Navigation (TacNav) system to plan
– Counter detection course to objective (METOC, Propagation info,
overhead ephemerides, surface picture, AIS, ADSB )
– line for intel gathering (Charts, AML, Surface Picture, PoL AIs)
• Platform AIs
– Status (engine status, pre-planned maintenance etc.)
– Need for fuel to complete objective
• Managing interactions between Humans and AIs
– Logs arrange RASL
• TacNav re-plan to include RAS
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Intelligent Ship Scenario 01Passage through contested waters
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Conduct a covert passage
Steer 105°, speed 10 kts
Mission?Avoid detection
Safe navigation
Patterns of life
Assess threat
Historical data
Power management
Minimise emissions
Signature control 12
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2/ Transit to task area
• Safe Passage
– AIs/Human team used to predict/avoid intercepts
• Previous patterns of life
• Experience of propagation environment
– TacNav conduct navigation
• Monitoring execution of the plan
• Requesting local updates of propagation environment to
maintain counter detection
• Using other sources to avoid detection etc.
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Int’ Ship CoreIntelligent Ship – Transit
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ISAIN
TACNAV
Platform system AIs providing status and availability of equipment, damage control, energy management
Battle management ADEMS set up courses of action and mission planning aides
Advice and options provided by Human-AI Dialogue based on compiled relevant information
Programme Nelson Display & track servicesCommand lab
Input Output
Mission Objectives
Courses of Action
Intel’gathering
plan
Counter detection
course
RAS activities required
Management of AIs for overall mission objectives
Adaptive management of human machine workloads
Workload
AI/Human Functions
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IS01 IS Transit
OFFICIAL© Crown copyright 2020 Dstl
Intelligent
Ship
RED territory
Red Coast
Guard Corvette
MLA
Wave Tanker
Destroyer (DD)
(AAWC)
Carrier
(MEU)
Frigate
Blue territoryRed territory
Fast Jet patrol
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3/ On Task
• Tactical Passage Making
– TacNav conduct navigation
• Monitoring execution of the plan
• Requesting local updates of propagation environment to
maintain counter detection
• Using other sources to avoid detection etc.
– Battle Management AI’s/Human Team running to monitor
threat situation and provide options for own ship or other
assets.
• AIs/Human team used to predict/avoid intercepts
– Previous patterns of life
– Experience of propagation environment
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Intelligent Ship – On Task
OFFICIAL© Crown copyright 2020 Dstl
ISAIN
TACNAV
Platform system AIs providing status and availability of equipment, damage control, energy management
Battle management ADEMS set up courses of action and mission planning aides
Advice and options provided by Human-AI Dialogue based on compiled relevant information
Programme Nelson Display & track servicesCommand lab
Input Output
Mission Objectives
Courses of Action
Intel’gathering
plan
Counter detection
course
RAS activities required
Management of AIs for overall mission objectives
Adaptive management of human machine workloads
Workload
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Int’ Ship Core
AI/Human Functions
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IS01 IS On TaskGathers Data and Returns
OFFICIAL© Crown copyright 2020 Dstl
Intelligent
Ship
RED territory
Red Coast
Guard Corvette
MLA
Wave Tanker
Destroyer (DD)
(AAWC)
Carrier
(MEU)
Frigate
Blue territoryRed territory
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Intelligent Ship Scenario 01Challenged by RED fast attack aircraft
OFFICIAL© Crown copyright 2020 Dstl
Respond to challenge
Prepare to increase readiness
My ship has beendetected and
identified. Is mission still achievable?
Unidentified warship in position ***** inside RED
exclusion zone, identify yourself
Revise plan
War-game new plans
Power availability?
Weapon status
Sensor performance
Watertight integrity?
This is Blue warship patrolling international waters, exercising right of freedom of navigation
under international law
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Intelligent Ship Scenario 01RED fast attack aircraft continues warning and shows weapons
OFFICIAL© Crown copyright 2020 Dstl
Repeat response
Situation escalating,is mission achievable,
inform command?
Increase readiness
Unidentified warship leave RED exclusion zone
immediately
War-game scenario
Ready for action
Increase power available
Bring weapons to short
notice
Increase watertight
integrity
This is BLUE warship patrolling international waters, exercising right of freedom of navigation
under international law.
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IS01 Red Force
OFFICIAL© Crown copyright 2020 Dstl
Intelligent
Ship
RED territory
Red Coast
Guard Corvette
MLA
Wave Tanker
Destroyer (DD)
(AAWC)
Carrier
(MEU)
Frigate
Blue territoryRed territory
Fast Jet patrol
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Intelligent Ship Scenario 01Illuminated by RED fast attack aircraft targeting radar
OFFICIAL© Crown copyright 2020 Dstl
Defend ship against hostile act
Bring ship to full readiness
Clear evidence ofhostile intent
Evaluate threat
Command intent
Rules of engagement
Hard/soft kill mix
Manoeuvre
Optimum fire control
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Intelligent Ship Scenario 01Civilian airliner rapidly descending towards Intelligent Ship
OFFICIAL© Crown copyright 2020 Dstl
Challenge contact
Anomalous behaviour
Is new contacthostile?
Assess track behaviour
Sensor data
Patterns of life
Historical data
Intelligence
Unidentified aircraft, this is BLUE warship,
turn away immediately!
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Intelligent Ship Scenario 01RED fast attack aircraft launches two anti-ship missiles
OFFICIAL© Crown copyright 2020 Dstl
Engage!
Firing solution ready
Defend ship,don’t be hit,
maintain mission
Threat assessment
Hard kill = 90%
Soft kill = 5%
Valid firing solution
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Intelligent Ship Scenario 01Intelligent Ship successfully destroys one anti-ship missile
OFFICIAL© Crown copyright 2020 Dstl
Firing solution remains valid for CIWS
Re-engage! Defend ship,don’t be hit
50% missile threat
reduction. Re-engage,
Percentage kill rate
Activate CIWS
Predict impact
Ready damage control
Manoeuvre? 25
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Intelligent Ship Scenario 01Intelligent Ship CIWS hits second anti-ship missile
OFFICIAL© Crown copyright 2020 Dstl
Defend ship,don’t be hit
Predict impact
Ready damage control
Re-configure ship
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Intelligent Ship Scenario 01Intelligent Ship hit by damaged anti-ship missile
OFFICIAL© Crown copyright 2020 Dstl
Hit by missile fragments.
Port propulsion off-line. Current threat level low.
Damage report andthreat assessment? What threat
remains, is missionstill achievable?
Detect impact
Assess damage
Assess threat
Damage control and fire
fighting priorities
Manoeuvrability
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3/ Return to TG
• Damage scenario
– Damage control strategy application to provide information
about residual capability & availability timescales for restoring
capability
– Automated recovery where possible; Agent tasks damage
parties to undertake prioritised repair activities
– Command and other agents kept informed on systems
platform material state and availability
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Int’ Ship CoreIntelligent Ship – Return to TG
OFFICIAL© Crown copyright 2020 Dstl
ISAIN
TACNAV
Platform system AIs providing status and availability of equipment, damage control, energy management
Battle management ADEMS set up courses of action and mission planning aides
Advice and options provided by Human-AI Dialogue based on compiled relevant information
Programme Nelson Display & track servicesCommand lab
Input Output
Mission Objectives
Courses of Action
Intel’gathering
plan
Counter detection
course
RAS activities required
Management of AIs for overall mission objectives
Adaptive management of human machine workloads
Workload
AI/Human Functions
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Intelligent Ship Scenario 01Intelligent ship limps back to Task Group to make repairs
OFFICIAL© Crown copyright 2020 Dstl
Recommend return to task group to effect repairs.
Course / speed required 220° sp 12 kts
on starboard shaft only
Mission unachievable without repair. Inform
command, negativetea and medals!
Damage assessment
Power generation
Weapon status
Sensor performance
Manoeuvrability
Logistics
Mission Analysis 30
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Purpose of Intelligent Ship Scenario
• This scenario has been developed to provide a framework to help
identify AI technologies and their interactions;
• It consists of multiple vignettes exercising different combinations of
ADeMs under different circumstances;
• The scenario will most likely be divided into a series of vignettes
• All parties on the project, industry MOD and RN will develop this on
jointly;
• The scenario will be refined throughout phase 2 of the project as and
when it is understood which Agents for Decision Making (ADeMs) will
be taken forward under phase 2 and their maturity and readiness to be
included in the Intelligent Ship AI Network (ISAIN) environment.
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