HDM-4 Introduction

Transport and DevelopmentTransport sector is vital for economic & social developmentRoads constitute largest component of transportRoads require a balance of:

Maintenance (or Preservation) Improvement (or Development)Objective of Road Management

Consistent and Rational Policy ObjectivesSufficient and Reliable FundingEffective Procedures & Management Tools (e.g. HDM-4)

Road ManagementPurpose:

To optimise the overall performance of the network over time in accordance with POLICY OBJECTIVES and within budgetary constraintsTypical objectives:

Minimise transport costsPreserve asset valueProvide and maintain accessibilityProvide safe and environmentally friendly transport

Road Management FunctionsPlanning

Setting standards and policiesLong term estimates of expenditureProgramming

Medium term work programmesPreparation

Detailed project design and work packagingOperations

Implementation of works in field

HDM-4 Objectives (1)AlignmentsPavement standardsRoad standardsEconomic basis for selecting investment alternatives

HDM-4 Objectives (2)Traffic congestionVehicle emissionsTravel timesNon-motorized transport facilitiesTransport costsRoad accidentsMinimize Road Agency and Road User Costs

HDM-4 ConceptPredicts road network performance as a function of

Traffic volumes and loadingRoad pavement type and strengthMaintenance standardsEnvironment / ClimateQuantifies benefits to road users from:

Savings in vehicle operating costs (VOC)Reduced road user travel timesDecrease in number of accidents

Role of HDM-4

Management Function

HDM-4 Application

Planning

Strategy Analysis

Programming

Programme Analysis

Preparation

Project Analysis

HDM-4 ApplicationsRoad sector policy studiesStrategic planning of road network development, improvement & maintenance Determination of funding requirementsPreparation of multi-year road work programmesEconomic appraisal of individual road projectsResearch studies

Road pricingVehicle regulations Pavement design standards

HDM-4 ToolAnalytical tool for engineering andeconomic assessment of

- road investments and maintenance

- transport pricing and regulationPhysical and economic relationships derivedfrom extensive research on road deterioration,the effects of maintenance activities, and vehicle operation and user costs

HDM-4 Life Cycle AnalysisDiscount AnnualCosts & ComparePredict RoadDeteriorationPredict RoadWork EffectsVOC, Accident & Time costsOutputNPV, IRR,..InputDataRepeat for all years

Comparison of Project Alternatives

Comparison of Project Alternatives

Cost ofPavingWithoutPavingDiscounted RACProject Life (years)End ofAnalysisNPV

HDM-4 History

The first move towards producing a road project appraisal model was made in 1968 by the World Bank. The first model was produced by MIT following a literature survey and was based mainly on a framework proposed by de Weille. The resulting Highway Cost Model (HCM) highlighted areas where more research was needed to provide a model that was more appropriate to developing country environments with additional specific relationships.Following this, TRRL, in collaboration with the World Bank, undertook a major field study in Kenya to investigate the deterioration of paved and unpaved roads as well as the factors affecting vehicle-operating costs in a developing country. The results of this study were used by TRRL to produce the first prototype version of the Road Transport Investment Model (RTIM) for developing countries. In 1976, the World Bank funded further developments of the HCM at MIT that produced the first version of the Highway Design and Maintenance Standards model (HDMII).Further work was undertaken in a number of countries to extend the geographic scope of the RTIM and HDM models, including; the Caribbean Study by TRRL which investigated the effects of road geometry on vehicle operating costs, the India Study by the Central Road Research Institute which studied particular operational problems of Indian roads in terms of narrow pavements and large proportions of non-motorised transport, and the Brazil Study funded by UNDP, which extended the validity of all of the model relationships.

International Collaboration1969-1995 HCM, HDM-II, HDM-III- Collaborative international studies World Bank & MIT, LCPC, TRRL, UNDP- Governments of Kenya, Brazil, Caribbean, India

- $20 million data collection in 4 field studies1995-2005 HDM-4 version 1.0 to 1.3- International sponsors, PIARC- Redesign of functions and software- Focus on road agency usage 2006-> HDM-4 version 2.0- HDMGlobal International Consortium responsible for management as sales

HDM-III Development

1969-1971 Phase 1- Conceptual Framework- MIT, TRRL- First Prototype- LCPC- The World Bank1971-1975 Kenya Study- VOC Study- TRRL- Road Deterioration Study- Kenya- The World Bank1977-1982 Caribbean Study- VOC Study- TRRL- Caribbean Countries1977-1983 India Study- VOC Study

- CRRI - New Delhi1975-1982 Brazil Study- VOC Study- GEIPOT - Brazil- Road Deterioration Study- United Nations - The World Bank- Texas Research 1981-1987 Final Phase- Modeling- The World Bank1987 HDM-III Publications- Research Documentation- The World Bank1989 HDM-III Software- PC Computer software- The World Bank1995 HDM System- Congestion, HDM Manager- The World Bank

HDM-4 Sponsors

SNRASweRoadVTIODAThe Universityof BirminghamADBN D Lea Int.IKRAMFICEMICH (Chile)Catholic Univ.Overseas Development Administration (ODA/DFID)Asian Development Bank (ADB)Swedish National Road Administration (SNRA)Inter-American Federation on Cement Producers (FICEM)The World Bank (IBRD)The World Road Association (PIARC)Steering Committee(World Bank)SecretariatThe Universityof Birmingham

HDM-4 Version 1.0 CoordinationIn 1998 The World Road Association (PIARC) took responsibility for coordinating the international implementation of the Highway Development and Management System (HDM-4) Version 1.0

PIARCWeb: http://hdm4.piarc.orgEmail: piarc.hdm4@ibm.netFax: 33-1+49 00 02 02

* New PR Web site under construction

HDM-4 Version 2.0 CoordinationIn 2005 PIARC awarded a five year concession to HDMGlobal for the future management of HDM-4 with exclusive rights for its distribution. HDM4Global is an international consortium of academic and consultancy companies that have formed a partnership. At the center of consortium is the Highway Management Research Group a UK based association of the University of Birmingham, Atkins and Scott Wilson in partnership with; TRL Ltd also of the UK, ARRB Transport Research Ltd from Australia, ENPC and Scetauroute from France, and ICH of Chile.

* New PR Web site under construction

HDM-4 Version 2.0 DistributionThe HDMGlobal distributor role is to:sell the software license and deliver HDM-4 on CD-ROMdeliver updates on disk or by internet downloadprovide first contact support

Website: http://hdmglobal.com/

E-mail: presses.ponts@mail.enpc.fr or sales@hdmglobal.com.

* HDM-4 will be released through distributors appointed by PIARC

* REVEAL POINTS

The HDM-4 Products on CD ROMHDM-4 softwareCase study data sets

HDM Series documents

HDM-4 Series CollectionVolume 6: Modeling Road Deterioration and Works EffectsVolume 7: Modeling Road User and Environmental Effects

HDM-4 Version 2.0 Prices (US$)Single License**3,4502,300Four Packor more2,930Five Packor more2,760

DevelopingStandard Countries** per capita GNI of less than USD3,255 equivalent per year** can be installed on two desktop computers

* We will be offering

* REVEAL POINTS

* Price discounts

Minimum System RequirementsPentium P100 processor (or equivalent)32MB of RAM30MB of hard disk space (for program and documentation)50MB of hard disk space (for storage of run-data)Windows XP, 95/98 or NT 4 with Service Pack 6a installedDesktop software. No server version available

Limitations of HDM-IIIVehicle and tire technology in the VOC studies bears little resemblance to those of modern vehiclesHDM-III does not consider:Traffic congestion (prior to 1995)Rigid pavementsMany types of flexible pavementsPavement texture and skid resistanceFreeze-thaw conditionsTraffic safetyEnvironmental impactsSoftware for DOS environment

HDM-4 Technical ImprovementsPavements

Rigid pavementsMore maintenance typesDrainage effectsFreezing climates effectsRoad Users

New vehicle typesCharacteristics of Modern VehiclesNon-motorized trafficCongestion effects AccidentsEmissions & Energy consumption

HDM-4 Software ImprovementsWindows 95/98/NT Environment

Easy to useDifferent levels of input dataThree Application Modules

Project Evaluation Network Programme EvaluationNetwork Strategic Planning EvaluationBetter interface with Pavement Management Systems

HDM Software VersionsHCM1970HDM-II1975HDM-III1985FortranHDM Manager 1.01991Clipper / DOS HDM Manager 2.01993HDM Manager 3.01995HDM Manager 3.21999HDM-IIIPC 1989HDM-QPC 1995MainframeLimited DistributionHDM-4 1.02000Windows XP/95/98/NTHDM-4 1.32002HDM-4 2.02005HDM-4 2.042007BugsBugs

HDM Version 1.3 and 2.04100% same input data99.9% same results with same inputs100% same output reportsOverall same structureHDM-4 version 2.04 new features:

Sensitivity analysisAsset value calculationStorage of different budget scenarios resultsSome input data rearranged (e.g. traffic composition entered together with daily traffic)Exports/Import data to Access files

Comparison of Alternatives Standards / Alternatives Policies / Strategies Norms / Options

Paved road alternatives, e.g.:- overlay at specified condition or time- reseal first and overlay later- reconstruct at specified condition or time- do nothing or do minimum (patching)- widen pavement at specified time or V/C- improve alignment or add lane Unpaved road alternatives, e.g.:- grading every 180 days- upgrade to paved standard at time or condition

Synonyms

Evaluation of AlternativesEconomic evaluation

Technical evaluation

Institutional evaluation

Financial evaluation

Social evaluation

Environmental evaluation

Political evaluation

HDM-4Main Focus

Transport BenefitsReduce vehicle operating costSavings in time of passengers and cargoReduction of accidentsStimulate regional development

Increase the comfort and convenienceBetter national integrationNational securityGreater self-sufficiencyEqual distribution of incomePrestige of the countryHDM-4Benefits

The Beginning, 1969More than 10,000 million dollars are spent on the highway sector each year in developing countries. The cost borne by the road-using public for vehicle operation are typically 8 to 10 times greaterIn Europe and North America: - high traffic volumes - high values attached to travel time savings - relatively abundant capital resources - roughness is generally not an issueIn developing countries: - traffic levels often much lower - values given to travel time savings are far lower - acute shortage of financial resources - roughness is a main issue

Pavement Management ApproachesCrisis-oriented approachhighway facilities are operated with little or no maintenance until obstructive failure occurs that needs extensive restoration and reconstruction work

Condition-responsive/financial approachphysical standards are set in relation to:a) perceived technical requirements, b) acceptable service levels, and c) received budget

Technical-economic efficiency approachfunctional and technical standards are selected tominimize total road transport costs to society.

HDM-4 Approach

Technical-economic EfficiencyTerminal LifeR.L.CurrentConditionWorst First?OverallIndex- Current Condition- Deterioration PredictionRemaining Service Life- Current Condition- Deterioration Prediction- Maintenance Effects- Vehicle Operating CostsBenefits to Society?ConditionConditionConditionTerminal Life or Condition Limit?HDM-4Approach

Total Society CostsConstructionMaintenanceVehicle operationPassenger and cargo timeAccidentsROAD AGENCY COSTSROAD USER COSTS=+

Total Society Costs CompositionCONSTRUCTION- Pavement- Structures- Furniture- Formation- LandMAINTENANCE- Routine- Pavement- StructuresSYSTEM OPERATION- Traffic mgt.- Safety- ManagementEXTERNAL- Accidents- Pollution- Access- ProductionROAD USERS- Fuel, lubricants- Maintenance- Depreciation- Time- Accidents

Minimizing Total Society CostsOptimumTotalRoad UserRoad WorksCostDesign Standards

Minimizing Resource ConsumptionConsumption of Resourceslitersm3hoursXUnit Costs=Total Society Costs

Financial & Economic Unit Costs Financial Prices Market Prices

Economic Prices Shadow Prices Social Prices

Do not reflect thereal scarcity valueof the inputsDeveloping Countries- Government Controls Taxes Subsidies Regulations- Rapid Inflation- Overvaluation of Domestic Currency

Primary Features of HDM-4Simulates deterioration and maintenanceof paved and unpaved roads, in physicalcondition and quantities, for strategies defined by the user

Simulates road user costs (speedsand consumption of physical resources)

Determines time-streams of road agency,road user costs, and net benefits

Computes economic indicators

Paved Road Deterioration ModelCrackingRavellingPotholingRuttingRoughness

Road User Effects

846.bin

Road User Costs ModelFuel & LubricantsTireMaintenance Parts & LaborCrew TimeDepreciation & InterestPassenger & cargo timeSPEEDCOMPSUMPTION

Road User CostsRoad Condition (IRI)Road User Costs ($/veh-km)GoodPoorCarPickup/utilityHeavy TruckBusRickshaw

Optimal Maintenance Costs-shares50 veh/day300 veh/day5000 veh/dayAgency CostsAgency CostsAgency CostsUser CostsUser CostsUser Costs

HDM-4 LimitationsThe model accepts but does not perform network traffic assignmentLimited estimation of environmental impacts, such as air pollution, and not costed internallyOnly partially applicable to urban traffic conditions through acceleration varianceOption for evaluating cement blocks and cobblestone pavements not yet implemented

Important Uses of HDM-4Analytical support to justify fundingForecasting financial and physical needsfor preserving road networkOptimal maintenance strategiesEconomic thresholds for road improvementsTradeoffs between design and maintenancestandards or optionsSimulating type and extent of deteriorationRoad use cost and damage attribution, inroad transport pricing and taxation(user charges, fuel tax, etc.)Optimal axle loading and configurationFleet modernizationPlanning and ProgrammingTechnical ApplicationsEconomic Applications

PlanningMedium- & long-term evaluation of options & strategies: 4-, 5-, 6- or 10-yrsOutputs:

Program allocations by network & region (routine m., periodic m, rehab., betterment, etc.) - approximate quantity, cost, benefit Outcome in performanceMajor development schemes identified and preparation scheduled

ProgrammingAnnual or 2-3-yr rolling program prepared for each network, within imposed budget allocationsOutput:

individual projects identified in each program, network & regioncost and benefit estimatesNetwork-Level Analysis

Project PreparationComparison of project-alternatives, economic justification:

pre-feasibility studyfeasibility studyTechnical StandardsDefinition of road agency norms and policies:

Levels of serviceRecommended worksTrigger points

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications

The first move towards producing a road project appraisal model was made in 1968 by the World Bank. The first model was produced by MIT following a literature survey and was based mainly on a framework proposed by de Weille. The resulting Highway Cost Model (HCM) highlighted areas where more research was needed to provide a model that was more appropriate to developing country environments with additional specific relationships.Following this, TRRL, in collaboration with the World Bank, undertook a major field study in Kenya to investigate the deterioration of paved and unpaved roads as well as the factors affecting vehicle-operating costs in a developing country. The results of this study were used by TRRL to produce the first prototype version of the Road Transport Investment Model (RTIM) for developing countries. In 1976, the World Bank funded further developments of the HCM at MIT that produced the first version of the Highway Design and Maintenance Standards model (HDMII).Further work was undertaken in a number of countries to extend the geographic scope of the RTIM and HDM models, including; the Caribbean Study by TRRL which investigated the effects of road geometry on vehicle operating costs, the India Study by the Central Road Research Institute which studied particular operational problems of Indian roads in terms of narrow pavements and large proportions of non-motorised transport, and the Brazil Study funded by UNDP, which extended the validity of all of the model relationships.HDM-4 Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications* New PR Web site under constructionHDM-4 Introduction and Applications* New PR Web site under constructionHDM-4 Introduction and Applications* HDM-4 will be released through distributors appointed by PIARC

* REVEAL POINTSHDM-4 Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications* We will be offering

* REVEAL POINTS

* Price discountsHDM-4 Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications

HDM-4 Introduction and Applications