Corn and Soybean Stocks, Acreage, and Price Outlook

Darrel Good and Scott Irwin Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics University of Illinois

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Questions

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4362

3533

4028 4261 4310

3670

3148

2766

3854

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-

mil.

bu.

Figure 1. June 1 Corn Stocks

Expected = 3722

3

1

67 103

76

-303

346

-33

-92

132

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-

mil.

bu.

Figure 2. USDA June 1 Corn Stocks Estimate Minus Average Trade Guess

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1,293

1,127 1,069

947

1,273

715

859 920

878

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

mil.

bu.

Figure 3. Third Quarter Feed and Residual

Use of Corn

Expected = 1010

5

91641

50000

55000

60000

65000

70000

75000

80000

85000

90000

95000

100000

thou

sand

s Figure 4. Planted and Harvested Acreage

of Corn

Planted

Harvested

Avg. guess = 91725

83839

6

02000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

mil.

ac.

Figure 5. Planted Minus Harvested

Acreage of Corn

7

991

1092

676

596 571 619

668

435 405

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-

mil.

bu.

Figure 6. June 1 Soybean Stocks

Expected = 378

8

-22

15

7

11

-21

22

27

-6

27

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-

mil.

bu.

Figure 7. USDA June 1 Soybean Stocks Estimate Minus Average Trade Guess

9

84839

50000

55000

60000

65000

70000

75000

80000

85000

90000

thou

sand

s Figure 8. Planted and Harvested Acreage

of Soybeans

Planted

Harvested

Avg. guess = 82154

84058

10

02000

4000

6000

8000

10000

mil.

ac.

Figure 9. Planted Minus Harvested Acres of Soybeans

11

973

760

668 684

495 453

328 247

563

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

mil.

bu.

Figure 11. Fourth Quarter Feed and Residual Use of Corn

needed

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Figure 12. Corn Balance 2012/13 2013/14 Supply: Planted Acreage (million acres) 97.2 95.4 Harvested Acreage (million acres) 87.4 87.7 Yield (Bushels / Acre) 123.4 158.8 Beginning Stocks (million bushels) 989 821 Total Production (million bushels) 10,780 13,925 Imports (million bushels) 162 35 Total Supply (million bushels) 11,932 14,781

Consumption: Feed and Residual (million bushels) 4,335 5,200

Food, Seed, and Industrial (million bushels) 6,044 6,460 Ethanol (million bushels) 4,648 5,075 Exports (million bushels) 731 1,875 Total Consumption (million bushels) 11,111 13,535

Ending Stocks (million bushels) 821 1,246 Ending Stocks/Total Consumption (%) 7.4% 9.2%

Average Price ($/bu.) $6.89 $4.55

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-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

mil.

ac

Figure 13. Actual Planted Acres of Corn Minus June Intentions

14

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

bu p

er a

c Figure 14. U.S. Average Corn Yield

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Figure 15. Corn Balance 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 Supply: Planted Acreage (million acres) 97.2 95.4 91.6 Harvested Acreage (million acres) 87.4 87.7 83.8 Yield (Bushels / Acre) 123.4 158.8 165.3 Beginning Stocks (million bushels) 989 821 1,246 Total Production (million bushels) 10,780 13,925 13,852 Imports (million bushels) 162 35 30 Total Supply (million bushels) 11,932 14,781 15,128

Consumption: Feed and Residual (million bushels) 4,335 5,200 5,250

Food, Seed, and Industrial (million bushels) 6,044 6,460 6,485 Ethanol (million bushels) 4,648 5,075 5,100 Exports (million bushels) 731 1,875 1,700 Total Consumption (million bushels) 11,111 13,535 13,435

Ending Stocks (million bushels) 821 1,246 1,693 Ending Stocks/Total Consumption (%) 7.4% 9.2% 12.6%

Average Price ($/bu.) $6.89 $4.55 $4.15

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Figure 16. Soybean Balance 2012-13 2013-14 Supply:

Planted Acreage (mil.) 77.2 76.5 Harvested Acreage (mil.) 76.2 75.9 Yield (bu./ac.) 39.8 43.3

Production (mil. bu.) 3,034 3,289 Beginning stocks (mil. bu.) 169 141 Imports (mil. bu.) 36 90

Total Supply(mil. bu.) 3,239 3,519

Consumption:

Crush (mil. bu.) 1,689 1,700 Export (mil. bu.) 1,320 1,600 Seed and feed (mil. bu.) 90 95

Total Consumption(mil. bu.) 3,099 3,395

Ending stocks (mil. bu.) 141 125

Stocks-to-use 4.5% 3.7%

Average farm price ($/bu.) $14.40 $13.10

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-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

mil.

ac

Figure 17. Actual Planted Acres of Soybeans Minus June Intentions

18

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

bu. p

er a

c.

Figure 18. US Average Soybean Yield 19

Figure 19. Soybean Balance 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Supply:

Planted Acreage (mil.) 77.2 76.5 84.8 Harvested Acreage (mil.) 76.2 75.9 84.1 Yield (bu./ac.) 39.8 43.3 45.0

Production (mil. bu.) Planted Acreage 3,034 3,289 3,785 Beginning stocks (mil. bu.) 169 141 125 Imports (mil. bu.) 36 90 10

Total Supply (mil. bu.) 3,239 3,519 3,920

Consumption:

Crush (mil. bu.) 1,689 1,700 1,730 Export (mil. bu.) 1,320 1,600 1,700 Seed and feed (mil. bu.) 90 95 110

Total Consumption(mil. bu.) 3,099 3,395 3,540

Ending stocks (mil. bu.) 141 125 380

Stocks-to-use 4.5% 3.7% 10.7%

Average farm price ($/bu.) $14.40 $13.10 $10.25

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