01. VanAcker - Roland Berger

8/14/2019 01. VanAcker - Roland Berger

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108 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX

Detroit, MI April 14, 2008

Business opportunities because thesolution is more than a hybrid


2/20

Renewable energy sources have become a must

World fossil fuel energy reserves 2008

Reserves(years atcurrentproductionlevel)

6139 145 80

208 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTXSource: BP report, Roland Berger analysis

Oil Natural Gas Coal Fossil FuelsWeighted Average


3/20

120.00

135.00

Gas prices are expected to remain high

Barclays

USD/bl

September 2007WTI crude: USD 80/bbl

Forecasted WTI crude oil price development to 2020 (real USD 2006 per barrel)


0.00

15.00

30.00

45.00

60.00

75.00

90.00

.

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook, EIA International Energy Outlook, Ministry of

Finance of selected countries, MEES, Samba

CERA 2

CERA 1

CERA 3

Deutsche Bank

Goldman Sachs

Merril Lynch

EIARussia

Mexico

Saudi Arabia

IEA forecast (WEO 2006)EIA forecast (IEO 2007)


4/20

Global CO2 emissions 2007 (%)

Several polluters should be considered in today'sdiscussion

Total: 800 Gt/year

Anthropogenic CO2 emissions (%)

Total: 28 Gt/year

Source of global CO2 emissions 2007


41.5

Oceans

Vegetation27

Combustionof biomass


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Policies in all regions are focused on reducingemissions

(g CO2/km)

USA


California

Canada

Australia

China

JapanEU

Source: Pew Center on Global Climate Change


6/20

Hybrid concepts reduce CO2 emissions

Potential CO2 savings (%)Full hybrid

CO2 savings of hybrid concepts


E-Recuperation(limited)

Start-Stop

E-Boost

E-Recuperation

Start-Stop

Electric driving

E-Boost

E-Recuperation Start-Stop

Functions

Installedelectricalpower(kW)

Mild hybrid

Micro hybrid

150

Newdevelop-ments

Source: Ricardo, TNO, IEEP, Roland Berger


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Full hybrids especially help reduce emissions forhigher-weight vehicles

Diesel-Hybrid as full hybridCO2 emission

1) (g/km) per vehicle by weight


1) CO2 emissions according to NEDC

Diesel-

hybrid

forecast

based on

cost-benefitassumptions

Source: IAV


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A full hybrid vehicle currently costs about USD6,000 more than a non-hybrid

Potential CO2 savings2)

(g/km)

Full hybrid

Cost CO2 impact ratio hybrid systems 2006


Cost per vehicle(USD '000)

Micro hybrid

Mild hybrid

1) ICE: Internal combustion engine , 2) Medium size vehicle (e.g. VW Golf)

Source: Ricardo, Roland Berger


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To reduce CO2 emissions focus should be onreduction of road resistance

Gearbox

Fuel - 100%

Coolingsystem

45.5%

Exhaust gas

23.0%

Mechanical 31.5%

Comments

Direct energy loss in combustionengines accounts for about 68%of total losses

Energy transformation of today's vehicles in NEDC


Heat loss to radiator 18.7%

Convection andradiation

3.2%

Residual heatat

end of test 23.6%

Charge air 1.1%

Intercooler 0.8%

Thermal losses inexhaust pipes 2.6%

Thermal lossesin catalyst 2.6%

Exhaust gasheat losses

15.8%

1.6%

Oil pump 0.5%

Power steering 1.9%

Water pump 0.3%

Alternator 0.6%

Battery

Rollingresistance

11.0%

Accelerationlosses

8.5%

Air resistance 6.4%

ElectricalDevices

0.9%

Warm up26.8%

Roadresistance

25.8%

Charging1.9%

(Braking energy

7.7%)

Accesso

rie

s4.1% Losses from disposal of

energy/heat of the enginethrough cooling system (2/3) andexhaust gas (1/3)

Out of 32% of mechanical energy

transformations only 8.5% areused for driving

Energy losses from brakingaccount for only 7.7% of totalenergy losses

Source: AVL, Roland Berger


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Most of the CO2 emission savings in hybridsresult from better operating point adjustments

CO2 [g/miles]

100% 8%

CO2 [g/miles] CO2 [g/miles]

INTERURBAN (Avg. 26 mph) FREEWAY (Avg. 76 mph)URBAN (Avg. 16 mph)

Fuel consumption/CO2 analysis of Lexus Rx 400h full hybrid

1008 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTXSource: TU Darmstadt

Hybrids have no impact on reducing rolling friction, drag coefficient and vehicle weight

Powertrain needs to be optimized as a system

Hybrids with e-boost function pave the way for downsizing

320

58%

0

100% 4% 5% 20%

71%

0

320

100% 1% 1% 0% 98%

0

320

Bench-mark

vehicle

Start-stop

Recupe-ration

Optimizeoperating

point

Rx 400h Bench-mark

vehicle

Start-stop

Recupe-ration

Optimizeoperating

point

Rx 400h Bench-mark

vehicle

Start-stop

Recupe-ration

Optimizeoperating

point

Rx 400h


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If a car were a house (1/2)

Energy is saved by:

R

A JTEnergy consumption =


Thermal insulation(RL)

and by

Controlling thethermostat (TA)

Build smaller houses

(A A)


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If a car were a house (2/2)

Energy is saved by:


More efficient powertrains

and by

Driving less, slower and more

constantly

Lighter and smaller cars


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Fuel consumption is a function of vehicleattributes and powertrain technologies

Freeway

Road resistance

Aerodynamics

Powertrain technology

Multi-speed transmission

Importance of attributes relative to annual mileage and driving style

ecovery

Powertrain size


Urban

MILEAGELow High

DRIVING

STYLE

Weight

Kinetic energy recovery providing

electric power

Efficient low-range transmission

Roadresista

nc

Weight/kineticenerg

y

Powertrain technology

PriceImportance of attributes

Kinetic energy recovery


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Best vehicle types depend on annual distancedriven and driving conditons

Vehicle styles best suited to each driving style

Freeway

Non-hybrid,

aerodynamic,

Low-tech,

aerodynamic,


Urban MILEAGELow High

DRIVING

STYLE

4-cylinder sedan

Lightweight,

diesel/

hybrid vehicle

gasoline-

powered car

Low-tech,

gasoline-powered, micro-

hybrid,

lightweight

vehicle


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Electric vehicle will be the next logical step fromhybrids

Hybrids

Electric Vehicle (EV)with "ICE rangeextender"

BatteryEVTechnology

Examples Micro Mild Full

Fuel CellEV

Low or zero-emission technologies and examples

1508 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 15

TeslaSmart

tart- top - oost

Civic IMA Prius

- r v e

GM E-Flex

- r v e

Potential

CO2reduction

3-4% < 15% < 20% < 100% 100%

Range

E-Motor

(miles)

0 0 6-31 124-249 200-400

FCXconcept

100%1) ?

Pure Electric Vehicles

1) If one regards total energy balance, CO2 reduction potential is significantly smaller than 100%

Source: Roland Berger Research


16/20

By 2015 battery driven EVs will grasp a significantmarket share

40% of world population will live in cities

(>1 million people) & California willrequire a share of Zero-Emission-vehicles in fleet


ELECTRICVEHICLESBattery technology improvements (will)provide sufficient range & costs willcome down

New market players will be on themarket with electric cars & increase thepressure on the OEMs

Source: Roland Berger


17/20

Hydrogen powered Electric Vehicles will not playa significant role before 2020

Four major stoppers for the success of hydrogen as the future fuel have been identified

1. Infrastructure to supply the fleet just in the US will cost over 500 USD billion


.

3. End user technologies such as fuel cells won't be market competitive by

2020

4. Othercompeting technologies such as PHEVs1) and BEVs2) offering today

better CO2 emissions levels at a market competitive price and with lower

investment requirements will already be established in the market and may

"close the door for FCEVs3)"

Source: Fuel Cell Vehicles, US Department of Commerce, Argonne National Laboratory

1) PHEV = Plug In Hybrid Vehicle, 2) BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle, 3) FCEV = Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle


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ZEV are at least 2 times more efficient than fuelcell cars

Overview of energy efficiency from Well-to-Wheel comparison for hydrogen and

electricity

20100

Hydrogen Well-to-Wheel efficiency Electricity Well-to-Wheel efficiency

8100


283

27

184

Electr.Well

H2Prod.

H2Transp.

H2Compression

FuelCell

Electr.DriveTrain

Energyleft

698

5

Electr.DriveTrain

Li-ionBattery

Electr.Well

Powerlines

Batterycharger

Energyleft

Source: Roland Berger


19/20

Business opportunities are abundant because thesolution is more than a hybrid

Technology development and supply of:

Efficient gas engines Efficient diesel enginesEfficient DiesOtto

engines


Electric motors and

EMSEfficient transmissions

Light weight AWD

capabilities

Light weight body

structures

Communication/

Integration,

vehicle/vehicle and

vehicle/infrastructure


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Detroit, MI April 14, 2008

Business opportunities because thesolution is more than a hybrid

01. VanAcker - Roland Berger

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