01. Van Acker Roland Berger
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Transcript of 01. Van Acker Roland Berger
108 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX
Detroit, MI – April 14, 2008
Business opportunities because thesolution is more than a hybrid
Renewable energy sources have become a must
World fossil fuel energy reserves – 2008
Reserves(years atcurrentproductionlevel)
6139 145 80
208 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTXSource: BP report, Roland Berger analysis
Oil Natural Gas Coal Fossil FuelsWeighted Average
105 00
120.00
135.00
Gas prices are expected to remain high
Barclays
USD/bl
September 2007WTI crude: USD 80/bbl
Forecasted WTI crude oil price development to 2020 (real USD 2006 per barrel)
308 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX
0.00
15.00
30.00
45.00
60.00
75.00
90.00
105.00
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook, EIA International Energy Outlook, Ministry ofFinance of selected countries, MEES, Samba
CERA 2
CERA 1
CERA 3
Deutsche Bank
Goldman Sachs
Merril Lynch
EIARussiaMexico
Saudi Arabia
IEA forecast (WEO 2006)
EIA forecast (IEO 2007)
Global CO2 emissions 2007 (%)
Several polluters should be considered in today'sdiscussion
Total: 800 Gt/year
Anthropogenic CO2 emissions (%)
Total: 28 Gt/year
Source of global CO2 emissions 2007
25 0%
408 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX
41.5
Oceans
Vegetation27
Combustionof biomass
<1
27Soil
3.5
In Europe: Road transport ~ 20%, passenger cars ~ 12%
19.0%
23.0%25.0%
3.0% 2.0% 1.5%
Domesticfuel andsmallconsu-mers
Air traffic
15.0%
Comb-ustion ofbiomass
Industry Othertraffic
6.0%
TrucksPowerplants
Ships onopen sea
5.5%
Pass-engercars
AnthropogenicCO2 emissions(%)
Source: VDI, EU
Policies in all regions are focused on reducingemissions
(g CO2/km)
USA
508 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX
California
Canada
AustraliaChina
Japan EU
Source: Pew Center on Global Climate Change
Hybrid concepts reduce CO2 emissions
Potential CO2 savings (%)Full hybrid
CO2 savings of hybrid concepts
608 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX
• E-Recuperation(limited)
• Start-Stop
• E-Boost• E-Recuperation• Start-Stop
• Electric driving• E-Boost• E-Recuperation• Start-Stop
Functions
Installedelectricalpower(kW)
Mild hybrid
Micro hybrid
150
Newdevelop-ments
Source: Ricardo, TNO, IEEP, Roland Berger
Full hybrids especially help reduce emissions forhigher-weight vehicles
Diesel-Hybrid as full hybridCO2 emission1) (g/km) per vehicle by weight
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1) CO2 emissions according to NEDC
Diesel-hybridforecastbased oncost-benefitassumptions
Source: IAV
A full hybrid vehicle currently costs about USD6,000 more than a non-hybrid
Potential CO2 savings2)
(g/km)
Full hybrid
Cost – CO2 impact ratio hybrid systems 2006
808 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX
Cost per vehicle(USD '000)
Micro hybrid
Mild hybrid
1) ICE: Internal combustion engine , 2) Medium size vehicle (e.g. VW Golf)
Source: Ricardo, Roland Berger
To reduce CO2 emissions focus should be onreduction of road resistance
Gearbox%
Fuel - 100%Coolingsystem– 45.5%
Exhaust gas
–23.0%
Mechanical– 31.5%
Comments
• Direct energy loss in combustionengines accounts for about 68%of total losses
Energy transformation of today's vehicles in NEDC
908 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX
Heat loss to radiator– 18.7%
Convection andradiation
– 3.2%
Residual heatat
end of test– 23.6%
Charge air – 1.1%
Intercooler – 0.8%
Thermal losses inexhaust pipes – 2.6%
Thermal lossesin catalyst – 2.6%
Exhaust gasheat losses –
15.8%
– 1.6%Oil pump– 0.5%
Power steering– 1.9%
Water pump– 0.3%
Alternator– 0.6%
Battery
Rollingresistance– 11.0%
Accelerationlosses– 8.5%
Air resistance– 6.4%
ElectricalDevices– 0.9%
Warm up26.8% Road
resistance– 25.8%
Cha
rgin
g –
1.9%
(Braking energy– 7.7%)
Acc
esso
ries
–4.
1%
of total losses
• Losses from disposal ofenergy/heat of the enginethrough cooling system (2/3) andexhaust gas (1/3)
• Out of 32% of mechanical energytransformations only 8.5% areused for driving
• Energy losses from brakingaccount for only 7.7% of totalenergy losses
Source: AVL, Roland Berger
Most of the CO2 emission savings in hybridsresult from better operating point adjustments
CO2 [g/miles]
100% 8% 4% 30%640
CO2 [g/miles] CO2 [g/miles]
640 640
INTERURBAN (Avg. 26 mph) FREEWAY (Avg. 76 mph)URBAN (Avg. 16 mph)
Fuel consumption/CO2 analysis of Lexus Rx 400h full hybrid
1008 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTXSource: TU Darmstadt
• Hybrids have no impact on reducing rolling friction, drag coefficient and vehicle weight
• Powertrain needs to be optimized as a system
• Hybrids with e-boost function pave the way for downsizing
320
4% 30%
58%
0
640100% 4% 5% 20%
71%
0
320
640 100% 1% 1% 0% 98%
0
640
320
Bench-mark
vehicle
Start-stop
Recupe-ration
Optimizeoperating
point
Rx 400h Bench-mark
vehicle
Start-stop
Recupe-ration
Optimizeoperating
point
Rx 400h Bench-mark
vehicle
Start-stop
Recupe-ration
Optimizeoperating
point
Rx 400h
If a car were a house (1/2)
Energy is saved by:
RA × ∆TEnergy consumption =
1108 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX
• Thermal insulation(R↑)
and by
• Controlling thethermostat (∆T↓)
• Build smaller houses(A ↓)
If a car were a house (2/2)
Energy is saved by:
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• More efficient powertrains
and by
• Driving less, slower and moreconstantly
• Lighter and smaller cars
Fuel consumption is a function of vehicleattributes and powertrain technologies
Freeway
Road resistanceAerodynamicsPowertrain technologyMulti-speed transmission
Importance of attributes relative to annual mileage and driving style
e reco
very
Powertrain size
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UrbanMILEAGELow High
DRIVINGSTYLE
WeightKinetic energy recovery providingelectric power
Efficient low-range transmission
Roa
d re
sist
ance
Wei
ght/k
inet
ic e
nerg
y re
cove
ry
Powertrain technology
PriceImportance of attributes
Kinetic energy recovery
Best vehicle types depend on annual distancedriven and driving conditons
Vehicle styles best suited to each driving style
Freeway
Non-hybrid,aerodynamic,
Low-tech,aerodynamic,
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UrbanMILEAGELow High
DRIVINGSTYLE
4-cylinder sedan
Lightweight,diesel/hybrid vehicle
gasoline-powered car
Low-tech,gasoline-powered, micro-hybrid,lightweightvehicle
Electric vehicle will be the next logical step fromhybrids
Hybrids
Electric Vehicle (EV)with "ICE rangeextender"
BatteryEVTechnology
Examples Micro
St t St
Mild
E B t
Full
E D i E D i
Fuel CellEV
Low or zero-emission technologies and examples
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TeslaSmart
Start-Stop E-Boost
Civic IMA Prius
E-Drive
GM E-Flex
E-Drive
PotentialCO2reduction
3-4% < 15% < 20% < 100% 100%
RangeE-Motor(miles)
0 0 6-31 124-249 200-400
FCXconcept100%1) ?
Pure Electric Vehicles
1) If one regards total energy balance, CO2 reduction potential is significantly smaller than 100%
Source: Roland Berger Research
By 2015 battery driven EVs will grasp a significantmarket share
40% of world population will live in cities(>1 million people) & California willrequire a share of Zero-Emission-vehicles in fleet
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ELECTRICVEHICLES
Battery technology improvements (will)provide sufficient range & costs willcome down
New market players will be on themarket with electric cars & increase thepressure on the OEMs
Source: Roland Berger
Hydrogen powered Electric Vehicles will not playa significant role before 2020
Four major stoppers for the success of hydrogen as the future fuel have been identified
1. Infrastructure to supply the fleet just in the US will cost over 500 USD billion
2 Hydrogen price at the filling station will cost at least twice that of gasoline
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2. Hydrogen price at the filling station will cost at least twice that of gasoline
3. End user technologies such as fuel cells won't be market competitive by2020
4. Other competing technologies such as PHEVs1) and BEVs2) offering todaybetter CO2 emissions levels at a market competitive price and with lowerinvestment requirements will already be established in the market – and may"close the door for FCEVs3)"
Source: Fuel Cell Vehicles, US Department of Commerce, Argonne National Laboratory
1) PHEV = Plug In Hybrid Vehicle, 2) BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle, 3) FCEV = Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle
ZEV are at least 2 times more efficient than fuelcell cars
Overview of energy efficiency from Well-to-Wheel comparison for hydrogen andelectricity
20100
Hydrogen Well-to-Wheel efficiency Electricity Well-to-Wheel efficiency
108100
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283
27
184
Electr.Well
H2Prod.
H2Transp.
H2Compression
FuelCell
Electr.DriveTrain
Energyleft
6985
10
Electr.DriveTrain
Li-ionBattery
Electr.Well
Powerlines
Batterycharger
Energyleft
Source: Roland Berger
Business opportunities are abundant because thesolution is more than a hybrid
Technology development and supply of:
Efficient gas engines Efficient diesel engines Efficient DiesOttoengines
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Electric motors andEMS Efficient transmissions Light weight AWD
capabilities
Light weight bodystructures
Communication/Integration,
vehicle/vehicle andvehicle/infrastructure
…
2008 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX
Detroit, MI – April 14, 2008
Business opportunities because thesolution is more than a hybrid