15.04.2023

Macroeconomic analysis in treasury activities routine

(information used in presentation is based on the following sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Rosstat, analytical reports of VTB, GPB, Raiffeisen)

Moscow & MO, 192

Russian regions,

109

CIS, 23

Europe, 19

KEY FACTS

Total – 343

Segmented by Region (number) Growth in number of restaurants

Brand Corp. Franch. Total

76 69 145

61 58 119

7 7

6 6

23 23

30 30

Other 13 13

Total 216 127 343

74 101 129 140 169263 255 249 255

330253 2165

1318

3463

74 95 113 127

129

131127

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Franch.

Corp.

• Rosinter is the leading casual dining operator.

• Brand Portfolio: Proprietary brands: IL Patio, Planet Sushi,

American Bar & Grill, Mama Russia Franchise brands: T.G.I. Friday’s, Costa Coffee,

and for transportation hubs - McDonald’s

• Present in 40 cities and 10 countries

• 343 restaurants: 313 casual dining (186 corporate and 127 franchise stores) and 30 coffee stores

• IL Patio and Planet Sushi are among the most recognized brands in Russia

• Turnover for 2014 = 9 BRUB

Source: Company data, 31/12/2014 2

Presence in 40 cities in 10 countries:• Russia• Ukraine• Kazakhstan• Belarus• Poland

OUR GEOGRAPHY

• Latvia

• Hungary

• Czech Republic

• Moldova

• Azerbaijan

Presence in 11 transportation hubs:Airports:

• Sheremetyevo (Moscow)• Pulkovo (St. Petersburg)• Borispol (Kiev, Ukraine)• Tolmachevo (Novosibirsk)• Kazan (Kazan)

Railway stations:

• Kursky (Moscow)

• Paveletsky (Moscow)

• Leningradsky (Moscow)

• Belorussky (Moscow)

• Kazansky (Moscow)

• Yaroslavsky (Moscow)

Moscow

Perm

Kazan

St.Petersburg

RigaYurmalaMinsk

Penza

Wroclaw

Prague

Budapest

Kiev

Rostov-on-Don

UlyanovskKemerovo

Samara

Ekaterinburg

Tumen

Surgut

Astana

Almaty

Omsk Novosibirsk

Novokuznetsk

Barnaul

Krasnoyarsk

Yaroslavl

Ufa

N.Novgorod

Warsaw

Izhevsk

Cherepovets

Kishinev

Krasnodar

Saratov

Stavropol

Tver

Baku

Sevastopol

3

Kursk

4

Sources of data available

• Analytical reports from the banks• Databases – Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg• CBR reports (cbr.ru)• Rosstat (gks.ru)• MOEX

5

Bank analytical reports - evolutionFebruary, 2015

May, 2015

6

Bank analytical reports - evolution

March, 2015

May, 2015

7

PollsUSD polls, May 2015

EUR polls, May 2015

8

PollsUSD polls, May 2015

EUR polls, May 2015

9

Treasurer approach for real economy finance

• Scenarios is THE MUST- Base / Worst / Best case forecast- Inclusion of GDP / CPI / FX as influencing factors

• Sensitivity testing- E.g. cost items impact on EBITDA

• New KPIs- Addition of Cash Flow indicators in liaison with Revenue/EBITDA- Treasurer as earning function

• Reactivity and flexibility- New tools and learnings- Best practices sharing (e.g. IFRS for non-public)- Flexible cash budget- Analysis of finance partners

10

Macroeconomics – unique or not

11

Macroeconomics

• Key indicators- GDP – decline is not dramatic as forecasted before (3-4%)- Oil price uncertainty forces the high range of scenarios on USD rates / budget impact- CPI: consensus 10-13%- Nominal wages – slow growth / decline

• Banks- Carrying on “cleaning” in line with measures of support- Signs of possible deeper problems than expected earlier on?- Overall expectations for speed up of financing recovery – key rate impact is essential

• Focus- Hedging – much more careful analysis required- Taxes / Deoffshorization- Sanctions- Legislation changes – new regulator initiatives to be followed closely