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0- RBI a Quantitative Analysis
16
48 Risk Analysis In general, risk is calculated as a function of time as follows The probability of failure is a function of time, since damage due to cracking, thinning or other damage mechanisms increases with time In API RBI, the consequence of failure is assumed to be independent of time, therefore () () () Rt POF t Ct () () () () Rt POF t CA for Area Based Risk Rt POF t FC for Financial Based Risk
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Transcript of 0- RBI a Quantitative Analysis
-
48
Ris
k A
naly
sis
In g
ener
al,
risk
is
calc
ula
ted a
s a
funct
ion o
f tim
e as
fo
llow
s
The
pro
bab
ility
of fa
ilure
is
a fu
nct
ion o
f tim
e, s
ince
dam
age
due
to c
rack
ing, th
innin
g o
r oth
er d
amag
e m
echan
ism
s in
crea
ses
with t
ime
In A
PI R
BI,
the
conse
quen
ce o
f fa
ilure
is
assu
med
to b
e in
dep
enden
t of tim
e, t
her
efore
()
()
()
Rt
POF
tC
t
()
()
()
()
Rt
POF
tC
Afo
rAr
eaBa
sed
Risk
Rt
POF
tFC
for
Fina
ncia
lBa
sed
Risk
-
49
Ris
k A
naly
sis
Ris
k ra
nki
ng o
f eq
uip
men
t at
a
def
ined
poin
t in
tim
e m
ay b
e sh
ow
n u
sing a
Ris
k M
atrix
Priority
for
insp
ection e
ffort
s is
oft
en g
iven
to
com
ponen
ts in
the
HIG
H o
r M
ED
IUM
-HIG
H
risk
cat
egory
-
50
Pro
bab
ilit
y O
f Fail
ure
The
Probab
ility
Of Fa
ilure
use
d in A
PI R
BI
is:
The
tim
e dep
enden
cy o
f pro
bab
ility
of fa
ilure
is
the
bas
is o
f usi
ng R
BI
for
insp
ection p
lannin
g
: f
MS
f MS
POF
tgf
fD
tF
wher
e POF
tth
e pr
obab
ility
of
failu
re a
s a f
unct
ion
of ti
me
gff
gene
ric f
ailu
re f
requ
ency
Dt
dam
age
fact
oras
a f
unct
ion
of ti
me
Fm
anag
emen
t sys
tem
s fa
ctor
-
51
Pro
bab
ilit
y O
f Fail
ure
Met
hods
for
det
erm
inin
g d
amag
e fa
ctors
are
pro
vided
in
API
581 c
ove
ring t
he
follo
win
g d
amag
e m
echan
ism
s
min
,
:(
/)
thin
elin
extd
scc
htha
brit
mfa
tf
tota
lf
ff
ff
ff
thin
f elin
f extd
f scc
f
DD
DD
DD
DD
whe
re Dda
mag
efa
ctor
for
thin
ing
corr
osio
ner
osio
n
Dda
mag
efa
ctor
for
equi
pmen
tlin
ing
Dda
mag
efa
ctor
for
exte
rnal
dam
age
Dda
ma
htha
f brit
f mfa
tf
gefa
ctor
for
stre
ssco
rris
oncr
acki
ng
Dda
mag
efa
ctor
for
high
tem
pera
ture
hydr
ogen
atta
ck
Dda
mag
efa
ctor
for
britt
lefr
actu
re
Dda
mag
efa
ctor
for
mec
hani
cal
fatig
ue
-
52
Dam
age
Mec
han
ism
s -
Thin
nin
gM
odifie
d A
rt ,
bas
e m
ater
ial w
ithout
clad
or
over
lay
is:
Det
erm
ine
thin
nin
g D
amag
e Fa
ctors
bas
ed o
n A
rtusi
ng
Table
5.1
1
Info
rmat
ion o
n c
orr
osi
on r
ates
is
pro
vided
in A
nnex
B
Pro
bab
ilit
y O
f Fail
ure
,
min
,max
1,
0.0
:
rdr
bmrt
rt rd rbm
tC
age
At
CA
whe
re Ais
the
dam
age
fact
orpa
ram
eter
for
thin
ning
dam
age
tis
the
thic
knes
sre
adin
gC
isth
eco
rros
ion
rate
ofth
eba
sem
etal
age
isth
etim
esi
nce
the
last
thic
knes
sre
adi
min
ngt
isth
em
inim
umre
quir
edw
allt
hick
ness
ofth
eap
plic
able
cons
truc
tion
code
CA
isth
eco
rros
ion
allo
wan
ce
-
53
Pro
bab
ilit
y O
f Fail
ure
Tabl
e 5.
11
Thi
nnin
g D
amag
e Fa
ctor
s
rtA
Insp
ectio
n Ef
fect
iven
ess
E 1
Insp
ectio
n 2
Insp
ectio
ns
3 In
spec
tions
D
C
B
A
D
C
B
A
D
C
B
A
0.
02
1 1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0.04
1
1 1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0.
06
1 1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0.08
1
1 1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0.
10
2 2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0.12
6
5 3
2
1
4
2
1
1
3
1
1
1
0.
14
20
17
10
6
1
13
6
1
1
10
3
1
1
0.16
90
70
50
20
3
50
20
4
1
40
10
1
1
0.
18
250
200
130
70
7
17
0
70
10
1
130
35
3
1
0.
20
400
300
210
11
0
15
290
12
0
20
1
260
60
5
1
0.
25
520
450
290
15
0
20
350
17
0
30
2
240
80
6
1
0.
30
650
550
400
20
0
30
400
20
0
40
4
320
11
0
9
2
0.35
75
0 65
0 55
0
300
80
60
0
300
80
10
54
0
150
20
5
0.
40
900
800
700
40
0
130
70
0
400
12
0
30
600
20
0
50
10
0.45
10
50
900
810
50
0
200
80
0
500
16
0
40
700
27
0
60
20
0.50
12
00
1100
97
0
600
27
0
1000
60
0
200
60
90
0
360
80
40
0.
55
1350
12
00
1130
70
0
350
11
00
750
30
0
100
10
00
500
13
0
90
0.60
15
00
1400
12
50
850
50
0
1300
90
0
400
23
0
1200
62
0
250
21
0
0.65
19
00
1700
14
00
1000
70
0
1600
11
05
670
53
0
1300
88
0
550
50
0
-
54
Pro
bab
ilit
y O
f Fail
ure
Com
ponen
t t m
inCal
cula
tion
Cal
cula
tion o
f t m
inis
bas
ed o
n t
he
applic
able
const
ruct
ion
code
calc
ula
tions
spec
ific
to c
om
ponen
t geo
met
ry t
ype,
i.e
. cy
lindrica
l sh
ell, f
orm
ed h
ead,
etc.
Use
ASTM
mat
eria
l sp
ecific
atio
n t
o d
eter
min
e al
l m
ater
ial
pro
per
ties
incl
udin
g a
llow
able
str
ess
Furn
ished
thic
knes
s is
act
ual
supplie
d c
om
ponen
t th
ickn
ess,
incl
udin
g t
he
ori
gin
al s
pec
ifie
d c
orr
osi
on
allo
wan
ceN
om
inal
thic
knes
s is
a s
pec
ifie
d d
esig
n t
hic
knes
s, u
sed if
the
furn
ished
thic
knes
s is
not
pro
vided
, only
use
d f
or
pip
ing c
om
ponen
tsThe
valu
e of t m
inuse
d in t
he
calc
ula
tions
is
min
min
,m
in,
max
,pr
essu
rest
ruct
ural
tt
t
-
55
Pro
bab
ilit
y O
f Fail
ure
t min
Cal
cula
tion
Cal
cula
ted t
min
is b
ased
on t
he
ori
gin
al c
onst
ruct
ion c
ode
calc
ula
tions
spec
ific
to g
eom
etry
typ
eFo
r a
Cyl
inder
:
0.6
:,
Cc
min
c min cPR
tSE
Pw
here
tRe
quir
edth
ickn
ess
circ
umfe
rent
ial
stre
ssP
Des
ign
pres
sure
RRa
dius
inth
eco
rrod
edco
nditi
onS
Allo
wab
lede
sign
stre
ssE
Wel
djo
inte
ffici
ency
-
56
Co
nse
qu
en
ce o
f Fail
ure
Inst
anta
neou
sG
asC
ontin
uous
Gas
Inst
anta
neou
sLi
quid
Con
tinuo
usLi
quid
Pool
Fire
,Saf
eD
ispe
rsio
nJe
tFire
,Poo
lFire
,Sa
feD
ispe
rsio
n
VCE,
Flas
hFi
reJe
tFire
,Tox
icEx
posu
reSa
feD
ispe
rsio
ns
VCE,
Flas
hFi
re,F
ireba
ll,To
xic
Expo
sure
,Sa
feD
ispe
rsio
ns
-
57
Co
nse
qu
en
ce o
f Fail
ure
The
conse
quen
ce o
f fa
ilure
or
loss
of
conta
inm
ent
for
a pre
ssurize
d c
om
ponen
t is
exp
ress
ed a
s an
im
pac
t ar
ea (
ft2)
or
in f
inan
cial
ter
ms
($)
Eve
nt
outc
om
es incl
ude
Vap
or
Clo
ud E
xplo
sions
(VCE),
pool
fire
s, jet
fir
es,
flas
h fir
es,
fire
bal
ls,
phys
ical
exp
losi
ons,
BLE
VEs
and t
oxi
c re
leas
es
Use
of cl
oud d
isper
sion a
nal
ysis
is
nee
ded
for
seve
ral of th
e flam
mab
le e
vent
outc
om
es a
nd f
or
toxi
c re
leas
es
Impac
t ar
eas
are
calc
ula
ted b
ased
on w
ell-
esta
blis
hed
lim
its
for
ther
mal
rad
iation a
nd o
verp
ress
ure
on p
erso
nnel
and
equip
men
t
Impac
t ar
eas
for
toxi
c re
leas
es a
re b
ased
on p
ublis
hed
dosa
ge
(conce
ntr
atio
n a
nd d
ura
tion)
limits
such
as
IDLH
(I
mm
edia
tely
Dan
ger
ous
to L
ife
and H
ealth),
ERPG
(E
mer
gen
cy R
esponse
Pla
nnin
g G
uid
elin
e),
Probit E
quat
ions
and A
EG
L (A
cute
Exp
osu
re G
uid
elin
e Le
vels
)
-
58
Co
nse
qu
en
ce o
f Fail
ure
Final
conse
quen
ce a
reas
are
det
erm
ined
as
a pro
bab
ility
-w
eighte
d a
rea
of
each
of
the
indiv
idual
eve
nt
outc
om
e ar
eas
Finan
cial
conse
quen
ces
are
calc
ula
ted incl
udin
g t
he
cost
s as
soci
ated
with:
Equip
men
t re
pai
r
Dow
ntim
e an
d a
ssoci
ated
pro
duct
ion loss
es
Ser
ious
inju
ry t
o p
erso
nnel
Envi
ronm
enta
l im
pac
t
API
RBI
pro
vides
tw
o lev
els
of co
nse
quen
ce m
odel
ing
1
......
....
flam
pool
jetVC
E
n
flam
ii
CAp
CAp
CAp
CA
CAp
CA
-
59
Insp
ect
ion
Pla
nn
ing
Ris
k in
crea
ses
with
tim
e as
com
ponen
t dam
age
incr
ease
s
If m
ultip
le d
amag
e m
echan
ism
s occ
ur
at
the
sam
e tim
e, t
hen
th
e princi
pal
of
super
posi
tion is
use
d
to d
eriv
e to
tal ri
sk
At
som
e poin
t in
tim
e, r
isk
reac
hes
the
targ
et
-
60
Insp
ect
ion
Pla
nn
ing
Insp
ection p
lannin
g
invo
lves
rec
om
men
din
g
the
num
ber
and lev
el o
f in
spec
tions
required
to
reduce
ris
k to
acc
epta
ble
va
lue
at t
he
pla
n d
ate
Insp
ection e
ffec
tive
nes
s is
gra
ded
A t
hro
ugh E
, w
ith A
pro
vidin
g t
he
gre
ates
t ce
rtai
nty
of
findin
g d
amag
e m
echan
ism
s th
at a
re
active
and E
rep
rese
nting
no insp
ection
Consi
der
the
follo
win
g
-
61
Insp
ect
ion
Pla
nn
ing
For
man
y ap
plic
atio
ns,
the
alre
ady
bee
n
exce
eded
at
the
tim
e th
e RBI
anal
ysis
is
per
form
edIn
spec
tion is
reco
mm
ended
im
med
iate
ly
-
62
Insp
ect
ion
Pla
nn
ing
When
the
risk
is
det
erm
ined
to b
e ac
cepta
ble
at
the
pla
n d
ate,
in
spec
tion is
not
required
-
63
Insp
ect
ion
Pla
nn
ing
Bas
ed o
n t
he
pre
vious
thre
e ca
ses,
an insp
ection p
lan is
dev
eloped
on a
com
ponen
t bas
isEquip
men
t is
model
ed a
s an
ass
embla
ge
of co
mponen
ts
in A
PI R
BI
Ther
efore
, th
e final
insp
ection p
lan for
the
equip
men
t is
bas
ed o
n t
he
resu
lts
der
ived
for
the
com
ponen
tsThe
insp
ection p
lan incl
udes
:The
dat
e an
d t
imin
g o
f th
e re
quired
insp
ection,
The
type
of N
DE (
e.g.,
vis
ual
, U
T,
Rad
iogra
phy,
WFM
T)
bas
ed o
n t
he
active
dam
age
mec
han
ism
sThe
exte
nt
of th
e in
spec
tion (
e.g.,
per
cent
of to
tal ar
ea
exam
ined
or
spec
ific
loca
tions)
Loca
tion o
f in
spec
tion (
exte
rnal
or
inte
rnal
)
