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Transcript of 0 mmc - Coal Mongolia · mmc.mn Market overview Coal is the main commodity in Mongolian exports 7...

Page 1: 0 mmc - Coal Mongolia · mmc.mn Market overview Coal is the main commodity in Mongolian exports 7 MONGOLIAN EXPORTS COMPOSITION 6% 7% 10% 30% 47% 43% 26% 15% 12% 20% 37% 42% 33% 27%

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(09

75

.HK

)

COAL MONGOLIA 20184 SEPTEMBER 2018

Gobi desert, MongoliaUHG and BN mines are located in South Gobi province.

Unexpected opportunity for Mongolian coal?

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Disclaimer

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

We have included in this presentation forward-looking statements. All statements that are not historical facts, including statements about our intentions,

beliefs, expectations or predictions for the future, are forward-looking statements.

The reliance on any forward-looking statement involves risks and uncertainties, and although we believe the assumptions on which the forward-looking

statements are based are reasonable, any or all of those assumptions could prove to be inaccurate and as a result, the forward-looking statements

based on those assumptions could also be incorrect.

We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, whether as a result of new

information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable laws, rules and regulations. In light of these and other risks and uncertainties,

the inclusion of forward-looking statements should not be regarded as representations by us that our plans and objectives will be achieved.

All numbers in this presentation are approximate rounded values for particular items.

2

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MARKET OVERVIEW

COMPANY OVERVIEW

CONCLUSIONS

Agenda

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221 210 212227

206

237

0

70

140

210

280

1H2017 2H2017 1H2018

Production Consumption

Market overviewChinese steel industry robust performance

4

COKE PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION

COKING COAL IMPORTS

Mt

Mt

Source: Shanxi Fenwei Energy Information Services Co., Ltd (“Fenwei”), World Steel Association, National Bureau of Statistics of China, General Administration of Customs of China.

COKING COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION

CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION

Mt

Mt

220 225 214

259 255 247

0

80

160

240

320

1H2017 2H2017 1H2018

Production Consumption

425 406451

384 378411

0

130

260

390

520

1H2017 2H2017 1H2018

Production Consumption

3634

29

0

10

20

30

40

1H2017 2H2017 1H2018

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0

600

1200

1800

2400

Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18

FOR Tangshan FOR Luilin #4 EXW Baotou EXW Jingtang (mid vol)

0

90

180

270

360

Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18

FOB Aus (low vol) FOB Aus (mid vol) CFR North China (low vol)

Market overviewCoking coal price remained strong

5

CHINA COKING COAL PRICES1

COKING COAL STOCKS AT CHINESE END-USERS

USD

Mt

Source: Fenwei, Platts.Note: 1 VAT inclusive.

COKING COAL STOCKS AT CHINESE PORTS

SEABORNE COKING COAL PRICES

CN

YM

t

0

2

4

6

8

Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18

Jingtang Rizhao Lianyungang Qingdao Fangcheng

0

4

8

12

16

Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18

Coke plants Steel mills

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Market overviewRegional trends in China

6

MONGOLIA

CHINA

UHGBN

Note: YoY percentage change in crude steel output Jan-Feb 2018.Sources: NBS, Financial Times.

Crude steel production Coke production

Mt 2016 2017Change

(YoY)2016 2017

Change

(YoY)

1 Inner Mongolia 18.1 19.8 9% 28.2 30.5 8%

2 Ningxia 1.6 2.3 44% 7.7 7.5 -2%

3 Gansu 6.3 5.6 -11% 5.1 4.7 -7%

4 Hebei 192.6 191.2 -1% 53.1 48.1 -9%

5 Xinjiang 8.7 11.1 28% 15.7 15.9 1%

6 Tianjin 18.0 18.1 1% 2.0 1.6 -23%

7 Shanxi 39.4 44.3 13% 81.9 83.8 2%

8 Shandong 71.7 71.5 0% 44.2 39.3 -11%

9 Liaoning 60.3 64.2 7% 21.3 22.2 4%

10 Others 391.7 403.6 3% 189.9 177.8 -6%

Winter curb areas

1

4

3

5

2

6

78

9

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Market overviewCoal is the main commodity in Mongolian exports

7

MONGOLIAN EXPORTS COMPOSITION

6% 7% 10%

30%

47%43%

26%

15% 12%20%

37%

42%33% 27%

26%

20%

19%

22% 45% 49% 33%

26%1%

4%5%

9%

9%12%

15%

8% 5%

5%

5%

12% 24%

16%

6%

2% 3%

7%

7% 9%

15%

10%

8%

6%

6%

6%

4% 3%

4%1% 2% 3%

2%

3%

4%

6%

5%

5% 8%12% 11% 8% 7%

6%28%

22%30%

18%13% 12% 14% 13% 15% 17% 14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Coal Copper concentrate Iron ore Gold Zinc concentrate Crude oil Others

Source: National Statistical Office of Mongolia

In general, Mongolian export

income is mostly driven by

commodity export revenue

generated by the mining sector.

In 2017, coal, copper

concentrate, gold, iron ore and

zinc concentrate were the top-5

exports of Mongolia alongside with

crude oil.

Supported by high prices., coal

was representing 47% of the total

exports at its peak in 2011.

Following the downward pricing

trends in the international markets,

coal revenue declined to 12% of

the total exports in 2015, but with

recovered prices and record high

tonnages exported, it accounted

for 37% of the country’s total

exports in 2017.

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MARKET OVERVIEW

COMPANY OVERVIEW

CONCLUSIONS

Agenda

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Company overviewSizeable coking coal resources and reserve base

9

The Company owns and operates two open-pit coking coal mines,

namely Ukhaa Khudag (“UHG”) deposit within the Tavan Tolgoi coal

formation and the Baruun Naran (“BN”) deposit, both located in the

South Gobi province of Mongolia.

UHG mine is located ~540 km south of Ulaanbaatar, the capital city

of Mongolia, and ~245 km from the Mongolia-China border crossing

Gashuunsukhait-Ganqimaodu (“GS-GM”). BN mine is located ~30

km south-west of UHG mine.

UHG mining license was granted in 2006 and BN mining license

was granted in 2008. The Company performed exploration work at

Tsaikhar Khudag (“THG”) area in 2011-2012 and was granted THG

mining license in June 2013. All licenses permit the Company to

engage in coal mining activities for an initial period of 30 years,

extendable twice by 20 years each.

The latest UHG Coal Resources estimate was prepared as at 31

December 2016; BN and THG Coal Resources estimates were

prepared as at 30 June 2015. Based on the latest estimates, pro-

forma total Coal Resources were 1,080 Mt.

The latest Coal Reserves statements for UHG and BN deposits

were prepared as at 1 January 2018. The estimates were prepared

based on open cut, multi-seam, truck and excavator mining

methods. As a result of the updated statements, pro-forma total run-

of-mine (“ROM”) Coal Reserves of UHG and BN deposits increased

to 509 Mt.

JORC (2012) Statement1 UHG BN THGPro-Forma

Total

Total resources2 (Mt) 680 330 70 1,080

- Above 300m 462 232 54 748

- Below 300m 222 95 18 335

Total ROM coal reserves3 333 176 - 509

- Coking 320 176 - 496

- Thermal 13 0 - 13

Total marketable reserves3 195 91 - 286

- Coking 156 71 - 227

- Middling 26 20 - 46

- Thermal 13 0 - 13

Notes: 1 Due to rounding, discrepancy may exist between sub-totals and totals. Rounding rules refer to Clause 25 of the JORC Code (2012). 2 Includes Measured, Indicated and Inferred Resource category. 3 Includes Proved and Probable Reserve category.

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Company overviewThe only coal producer in Mongolia with fully integrated operations

10

Mining Processing Site InfrastructureTransportation &

Logistics

Access to GS-GM border

crossing for exports to China

using ~245 km heavy haul

paved road.

BN and UHG mines are

connected by ~30 km heavy

haul paved road.

In-house fleet of around 450

double trailer trucks with ship-

load of 130 tonnes.

18MW air-cooled power plant

in operation since 2011;

supplemented by connection

to the central grid.

Water supply facility with 117

l/sec capacity was completed

in 2011. It was further

expanded in 2014 to make the

total water supply capacity up

to 200 l/sec.

Open-pit mines with mine-life

in excess of 25 years, based

on the current production

plans.

Mining operation at UHG

commenced in Apr 2009.

BN mine commercial

production started in Feb

2012.

CHPP comprises 3 operating

modules each with a 5 Mtpa

capacity, making the annual

total processing capacity 15

Mtpa.

Construction phases completed:

Jun 2011 – module I

Feb 2012 – module II

Jun 2013 – module III

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Company overviewWashed coking coal quality

11Source: ITR Norwest 2010, the Company data.

10.5% ash HCC product 9.5% ash SSCC product

Seam

1.40 Float Ash . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.40 Float Yield . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.45 Float Ash . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.45 Float Yield . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Volatiles (ad) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Volatiles (daf) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inherent Moisture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Phosphorus (ad) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Total Sulphur (ad) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

CSN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Fluidity ddpm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Sapozhnikov Y mm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Sapozhnikov X mm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

G Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Reactives Vitrinite % . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Reflectance % . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

CSR measured . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

CRI measured . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

0C 3A 4A 4C

12.1 9.4 9.0 7.9

41.0 65.8 66.9 71.7

13.6 10.5 9.8 8.5

54.9 78.7 75.5 78.3

21.3 22.4 22.9 23.9

24.2 24.9 25.4 26.4

0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7

0.075 0.117 0.089 0.134

0.4 0.6 0.4 0.7

8 ½ 8 ½ 8 8

26 168 435 564

12 13.5 13.5 15

14 18.5 21.0 20.5

80 85 87 88

64.1 63.9 55.8 58.2

1.29 1.25 1.23 1.28

69.5 64.8 69.4 66.3

21.3 28.4 24.1 25.3

8 9

8.2 7.2

67.9 66.3

9.1 7.7

75.5 69.6

29.6 31.2

32.8 34.1

1.1 1.6

0.102 0.126

0.8 0.4

6 5

364 1560

16 15.5

27 30.5

92 90

65.5 60.7

1.01 1.09

39.5 40.4

40.0 40.0

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Company overviewExpanding cooperation with end-user customers

12

COOPERATION WITH SHENHUA INNER

MONGOLIACOOPERATION WITH BAOTOU STEEL

The Group signed a 10-year General cooperation agreement on

coal sales with Shenhua Inner Mongolia Coal and Coking Co., Ltd

(“Shenhua Inner Mongolia”) in May 2018, which was an

important milestone to further strengthen its relations with one of

the largest coke producers in Inner Mongolia.

During the visit of the Prime Minister of Mongolia to the People’s

Republic of China in May 2017, the Group signed a long-term

Cooperation agreement with Baotou Iron and Steel Co. Ltd

(“Baotou Steel”) and broadened its relations with the largest steel

producer in Inner Mongolia, which is located in close proximity to

the Group’s UHG and BN mines.

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0.1 0.7

4.2 4.0 3.6

4.2 4.1 4.3

4.6 4.2

4.8

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

1H2017 2H2017 1H2018

Stripping ratio…

Company overviewProduction output remains “strangled” by logistics constraints

13

WASHED COAL PRODUCTION

Mt

Note: 1 Combined stripping ratio of UHG and BN mines.2 Combined washing yield and product output of UHG and BN mines.

ROM COAL PRODUCTION

Mt

In 1H 2018, total CHPP ROM coal feed was 4.0 Mt, of which 3.5

Mt and 0.5 Mt were sourced from UHG and BN mines,

respectively.

The Company produced 0.8 Mt and 1.2 Mt of primary products in

1Q 2018 and 2Q 2018, respectively.

The primary products include washed hard coking coal (“HCC”)

and washed semi-soft coking coal (“SSCC”).

The secondary product is washed thermal coal (‘middling”) with

high calorific value >6,000 kcal/kg.

UHG BN

In 1H 2018, prime overburden movement at UHG and BN mines

were 15.0 million bank cubic metres (“bcm”) and 5.6 million bcm,

respectively.

BN mine production resumed in 4Q 2017.

Combined ROM coal production at UHG and BN mines for 1Q

2018 and 2Q 2018 were 1.8 Mt and 2.5 Mt, respectively.

0.8 1.0 0.9

2.0 2.1 2.0

2.8 3.1 2.9

73% 73% 73%

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

1H 2017 2H 2017 1H 2018

Total yieldPrimary product Secondary product

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0.4 0.4 0.4

1.9 1.7 1.7

2.3 2.1 2.1

127.7 133.1 146.1

0

1

2

3

4

1H2017 2H2017 1H2018

ASP of HCC (USD/t)

Company overviewIncreasing revenue stream

14

HCC ASP BY SALES TERMS (1H 2018)

PROFIT FROM OPERATIONS

Mt

USD

mln

Note: 1 ASP is a blended average of HCC.2 Includes mainly SSCC and middlings.

REVENUE

SALES VOLUME AND ASP1

USD

\tU

SD m

ln

HCC Others2

72.1

51.9

69.8

0

30

60

90

120

1H2017 2H2017 1H2018

245.9

230.5

272.2

180

210

240

270

300

1H2017 2H2017 1H2018

129.5 140.8

176.3

0

50

100

150

200

DAPGM adjusted price FOTGM price (exc VAT) C&F price (exc VAT)

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16.9

24.1 22.6

0

10

20

30

1H2017 2H2017 1H2018

Company overviewTransportation costs impacted by border crossing inefficiencies

15

GM BORDER CROSSING DAILY AVERAGE THROUGHPUT2

USD

\t

TRANSPORTATION COST1

Tru

cks

1,152

650 687

0

500

1,000

1,500

1H 2017 2H 2017 1H 2018

Note: 1 Combined weighted average transportation cost from UHG to GM, including third party contractors. 2 Combined average throughput of all coal trucks crossing GM border per operating day.

Inefficiencies at GS-GM border crossing continues to impact daily export

throughput, limiting the number of trucks crossing the border. 1Q 2018 GM

border crossing average throughput was the lowest in the last two years.

While the situation has improved since May 2018, it remains uncertain

whether the improvement can be sustainable.

In July and August 2018, coal transportation was disrupted from time to time

due temporary closure of roads from the mine area to GM caused by heavy

rains and flooding.

The Company increased its’ transportation capacity by 150 double trailer

trucks bringing the total capacity to around 450. The first 100 trucks were

delivered towards the end of 2017, while the remaining 50 trucks were

delivered during 1H 2018.

In 1H 2018, the Company shipped 2.4 Mt of coal products for export

from Mongolia to PRC utilizing trans-shipment facility located at

Tsagaan Khad (“TKH”), in compliance with the GoM Resolution No.

320 (dated 29 November 2017) which temporarily suspended customs

clearance at mine sites in Tavan Tolgoi area and requiring exporters to

utilize customs bonded yards located at TKH.

On 20 June 2018, the GoM issued Resolution No. 185 and lifted the

ban imposed on coal customs clearance from the mine sites in Tavan

Tolgoi area.

Starting from July 2018, the Company is performing coal exports

transportation using both direct UHG-GM route and UHG-TKH and

TKH-GM two-step route.

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MARKET OVERVIEW

COMPANY OVERVIEW

CONCLUSIONS

Agenda

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Area A

ConclusionsTarget market region

17

China Railway Corporation

railway

China Shenhua railway

UHG-GS paved road

Customers

UHG

MONGOLIAArea C

Area B

CHINA

BN

GS-GM

MONGOLIAN COAL EXPORTS

By declared volume at custom clearance1:

By declared value at custom clearance1:

234.8 182.0 286.5

1,282.4

985.3

1,413.8

18% 18% 20%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

1H2017 2H2017 1H2018

MMC share

USD

mln

Total MMC

10.96.3 8.5

19.1

14.3

18.3

13% 13% 13%

0

8

16

24

32

1H2017 2H2017 1H2018

MMC share

Mt

Source: National Statistical Office of Mongolia, the Company data

Note: 1 Total declared export volume and value at all Mongolian border points are sourced from National Statistical Office of Mongolia.

Total via GS-GM

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ConclusionsSummary of key points

- China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of coal and steel, therefore policies adopted by the Chinese authorities have far-reaching

impact on the global markets for steel making ingredients including coking coal.

- Chinese regulators have continued to enforce strong pollution control guidelines while undertaking supply-side reforms by closing excess capacity

in industrial sectors, including coal and steel industry. These have positively impacted the supply and demand balance, resulting in improved

market environment for steel making raw materials such as coking coal.

- International coking coal markets demonstrated strong performance since the end of 2016, driven by a lift in global steel production, along with

supply-chain disruptions both within China and in sea-borne markets caused by extreme weather conditions.

- Although Chinese coking coal prices are having similar patterns with sea-borne coking coal prices in the long-run, short term volatility with large

price spikes caused by supply disruptions makes Chinese buyers simply retreat from the markets and rely on land-borne supplies from domestic

sources (mostly from Shanxi) or Mongolia.

- The market is also facing regulatory disturbances such as UN embargo on North Korea restricting coal imports to China; Recent international trade

tensions resulted in 25% tariff imposition on coal imported from USA to China.

- Traditionally, steel production in China was concentrated in Bohai-Rim area - provinces like Hebei, Tangshan, Liaoning, Shandong and Jiangsu.

However these areas are strongly impacted by the policies targeting pollution and overcapacity curbs.

- Major infrastructure projects undertaken within China’s “One Belt-One Road” will continue to support increasing steel production in northern and

western regions of China which are in close proximity to Mongolia.

- According to the data from Mongolian National Statistics Office, Mongolia’s coal exports to China in 2017 reached a record-high volume of 33.4 Mt,

representing 29.4% increase compared to 25.8 Mt reported in the previous year. However, the cross-border logistic bottlenecks remain as the main

factor limiting further increase of coal exports volumes, particularly via GS-GM border crossing point.

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ConclusionsCoal exports infrastructure

GS-GM

Border crossing points – operating

Border crossing points – planned

Toll roads – planned

Toll roads – operating

UHG

TKH

BN

Khangi-Mandula

ZU-ERLIAN

Tsagaan Del Uul-Ulzii

BAYANNUURALAXAA

UMNUGOBI

DORNOGOBI

BAOTOU

Jinquan

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THANK YOUMongolian Mining Corporation16F Central TowerSukhbaatar DistrictUlaanbaatar 14200 [email protected]