Chapter 1by Pavel Malyzhenkov

Russia and the Independent States Community: actual geopolitical and

macroeconomic scenario and perspectives of development

Preface

During the existence of the USSR (and also nowadays) the Russian Federation represented the

largest Soviet Republic from both commercial and industrial points of view. Fig.1 shows the

percentage distribution of investments in fixed assets for Soviet enterprises per republic 1 in 1990, a

year before the dissolution of the Soviet Union as a territorial, political and economic unit.

Fig. 1 Fixed assets of Soviet enterprises: percentage distribution per republic

The dissolution of the USSR, the subsequent formation of the CIS and the opening of the

former Soviet market to foreign capital had broken all the old economic schemes and business

forms. Although not belonging any longer to a maxi-economic complex as USSR was, also the

single ex-Soviet republics still represent great opportunities for foreign enterprises.1 Source: Narodnoe khozyaistvo SSSR v 1990 (National Economy of USSR in 1990, in russian), Moscow, “Finansy i Statistika”, 1991;

11

%

After the turbulent period in the late nineties (the financial crisis of '98) and early 21th

century, international investors operating in Russia have been faced a rather embarrassing choice.

The dilemma was as follows: continue to treat transactions in Russia with great caution, or begin to

trust the growing power of the Kremlin and the new Russian political stability? To adapt as best as

possible the risks to the new Russian reality, the investors try to understand the origins of tensions

between Russia and the West. This chapter is dedicated to the analysis of this phenomenon as well

as to the presence of occidental operators in Russia.

1.1 The relations Russia-USA

During his second presidential term Putin has strengthened what is called in Russia the

"power vertical" or the "vertical of power". The president has concentrated in its hands the ultimate

power of the state. Pro-Kremlin majority in the Duma provides full support for legislative initiatives

of the President. The analysts have pointed to the fact, that the judicial system, political parties, the

media have less influence on the Russian government and the Kremlin's political line. But the most

important reality in recent years is linked to the fact that President and his entourage have become

political "managers" of the wealth and privileges that can be achieved in Russia in 21 century.

Therefore, after realizing that the political and economic systems in Russia are not divided

and public governance and decision making are very personalized, a greater number of foreign

investors based organization of their business on building personal relationships with the

increasingly powerful Russian bureaucracy. That is to say that personal relations, based on the

financial interest guarantees currently more than those legal and commercial. The so-called

"Kremlinology" is back: investors are following with great attention the changes of "frameworks" at

the top of the Kremlin. It allows to predict the changes that may affect the investment climate in

Russia2.

The cordial relationship set by Washington in the nineties was based on the assumption that

aid and economic assistance, as well as the association of Russia to Atlantic block, would not only

2 After the Yukos case (the arrest of the CEO and main shareholder Mikhail Khodorkovsky 25 October 2003) a few investors dare to test the patience of the authority of Russia. In this context it is also very significant the case of William Browder, president of Hermitage, a leading global investment fund, who in 2006, on arrival at the international airport in Moscow, discovered that his entry visa to Russia had been canceled without explanation. According to different sources, Browder obtained the status of persona non grata after the harsh criticism of corporate governance in Russia which, according to Western investors, in Russia must be seriously improved (see the chapter 3 of the present work). So, the investors who are morally ready to accept the further strengthening of the power of the Kremlin will have a good chance to increase profits from operations in the financial markets of the country.

12

facilitated its transition to a market economy and democracy, but also guaranteed his acquiescence

to the expansion of NATO to the East and the erosion of its influence throughout the former Soviet

space. In part, this approach has been encouraged by the submissive attitude of Russia. Beyond the

need to raise funds and to avoid international isolation, Moscow considered the cooperation with

the U.S. an essential condition for remaining in the club of major world powers3. This explains the

very important Russian-American initiative for the safety of former Soviet nuclear arsenal, which

has led in the early nineties, to the transfer in Russia of warheads deployed in Belarus, Kazakhstan

and Ukraine.

Russia has also made an important logistic contribution to the American intervention in

Afghanistan in the belief that this would have given more attention to its interests by a U.S.

Anyway, Washington has seen it in a different way. For the Americans the aid in Afghanistan was

the signal that Russia, implicitly agreeing to play the role of junior partner, would join the ranks of

the “willing” in the war that the White House had declared to the international terrorism4.

In particular, investors have found that the Kremlin’s political leaders were quite convinced

that Western societies have been enriched in an exaggerated way by exploiting the economic

weakness of Russia in the early 90. In addition, Moscow does not intend to accept the maneuvers of

the Western governments that, in the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union, have taken

advantage of Russia's political and economic weakness to reduce the presence of Moscow in its

traditional areas of geo-strategic influence in the world and former Soviet republics.

The enlargement of NATO, bombing of Belgrade, the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-

Ceyhan5 oil pipeline are factors that have negatively affected the relations between Russia and the

West, who have suffered serious damage, especially during the so-called "color revolutions" in

Georgia and Ukraine during the "gas crisis" in January 2005 between Moscow and Kiev. The

3 After the September, 11 the cooperation in antiterrorism has also been intensified. Putin was among the first to express solidarity with the American people, and declared himself ready to boost joint efforts against international terrorism, accredited to the White House and President Bush as a leader and trusted partner (September 11, has also given to Putin the right to divert international attention from the atrocities of the conflict in Chechnya, as well as to present the fight against Chechen secessionists as one of the fronts of the fight against Islamic terrorism) Source: E. Greco, R. Alcaro, V. Fabbri “Le relazioni della Russia con Europa e Stati Uniti: sviluppi recenti e scenari futuri”, 2007.4 Some years ago, a growing number of international investors, operating on the Russian markets, began to realize a gradual worsening of relations between Russia and the West (in particular with the United States). A situation that can affect only negatively the financial operations, primarily in those sectors of the economy that the Kremlin has declared "strategic importance" to national security and economic development of the country (energy, oil, gas, metals).5 The project sponsored by the U.S. to transport Caspian oil bypassing Russian territory built in 2006 and designed to carry oil extracted from oil fields in the Caspian Sea to the shores of the Mediterranean Sea. It connects Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia, and Ceyhan, a port on the south-eastern Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

13

similar “gas war” between Russia and Belarus have strengthened the West's fears about the

reliability of energy in Moscow.

The situation began to change in favor of Russia in the period 2006 to 2008, when oil prices

rose more than twice (fig. 2).

Fig. 2 Oil prices dynamics (Source: www.oilnergy.com, our elab.)

Exports of energy has allowed President Vladimir Putin to enhance the economic and

financial power. Step by step the Kremlin has strengthened its control over regional authorities.

After years of stalling, Russia has begun to expand its influence in the world, often coming into

conflict with the West (for example, the Iranian nuclear issue).

The external debt of Russia has decreased from 57% of GDP (2000) to 4.5 percent. Gold and

currency reserves rose and at the end of 2006 they have exceeded $ 290 billion. The inflation rate

fell to 9 percent per year. In 2006 Russian companies have launched an aggressive M&A process in

the West, investing billions of dollars in assets of the largest Western societies (including also the

Italian Lucchini6).

Once Russia has become economically stronger (at the end of Putin's second presidential term

the Russian GDP increased by 2.1 times compared to its beginning), the Kremlin has launched a

strategic operation to "correct" errors committed by the previous Presidency in the Nineties 7. The

6 The large Italian steel-producer. In March of 2010, Severstal, the Russian steel giant, has formalized the purchase of the missing 20% to arrive at the total control of Lucchini which had already become Russian in 2005 when it took over 80% of capital.7 The economic reforms carried out by the government El'tsin in the early '90s led to a sharp increase in both the social inequalities and the poverty rate in Russia. According to the data of World Bank (The World Bank, Income, Inequality and Poverty During the Transformation from Planned to Market Economy, 1998), during

14

$

Putin government has issued a challenge to Western influence in Russia and throughout the post-

Soviet space, trying to exploit in its favor the decline of authority of the United States in the world

(problems in Iraq, the devaluation of the dollar) and, in particular in the former Soviet republics.

In addition, the bigs of global industry, including British Petroleum (active in Russia since

1990), Royal Dutch/Shell Group (since 1996), Exxon-Mobil (since 1989) have discovered for the

first time that their financial weight, and its influence on global affairs and international politics are

factors that don’t make easier any longer their penetration into strategic sectors of the energy

industry in Russia, that Moscow intends to keep under its full control8.

Despite the growing State control over energy and other natural resources foreign investors in

Russia have free access to many other industrial sectors that provide relatively high revenues. For

example, companies specializing in software outsourcing have found that the risk of being faced

with a State company that harnesses the technology to drive out foreigners from the market, is much

lower in Russia than in China.

In any case, Russia’s political stability remains the key theme for foreign operators. The Putin

government has managed to improve significantly the economy: financial risks have declined,

inflation has slowed, the flow of capital from Russia reduced. In 2006 Russia's economic growth

was 6.9% versus 6.4% in 2005. Even in 2007 the high prices of energy and other commodity prices

in global markets have ensured the country’s economic growth.

Political stability and economic growth have allowed the country to further increase the

purchasing power of Russian consumers. The banking sector and the presence of foreign institutions

in the Russian banking sector continued to grow. After Russia’s entry into the World Trade

Organization9, Russian banks will face increasing competition from the big pressing of the global

banking sector.

Instead, the medium- and long term prospects, especially following the financial crisis, are

less clear and may cause some concern for investors.

the last period of the Soviet regime only 1,5% of families lived below the poverty line, while in 1993 this percentage had risen between 39 and 49%. The income per capita dropped by another 15% during the 1998 crisis which had serious economic and social consequences and led to loss of confidence of the people towards the State, banks and entrepreneurs. (Тимошина Т. «Экономическая история России», Timoshina T. “Economic History of Russia”, Moscow, 2003).8 The first enterprise to feel the "heavy hand" of the Kremlin was the Shell, the giant of the international oil and gas, which in just a few months lost (together with its Japanese partners, Mitsui and Mitsubishi), the control of Sakhalin-2, the largest project in the world for the production of liquefied natural gas, the cost of construction was estimated at 22 billion dollars. After the frontal attack launched against Shell by the Ministry of Natural Resources of Russia, Gazprom acquired without much difficulty for the $ 7.4 billion package of project control. Source: “Russia stabile anche nel 2007-2008”, Il Sole 24 Ore, 15 January, 2007.9 During the Summit in Brussels it was programmed in 2011.

15

1.2 Russia and European Union

While the U.S. has developed cooperation with Russia mostly in energy sector and on security

issues trying, in particular, to realize joint efforts with Moscow on nuclear non-proliferation of

weapons of mass destruction and combating international terrorism, the European Union has

pointed on a wide-range cooperation, but these relations are also rather difficult10.

The role of Russia in the fight against global warming, a top priority for the EU, is also of

growing importance and the ambition to enter the European relations with Russia in a stable and

articulate institutional framework is strong.

This framework is defined on a formal level by the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement

(PAC) of 1997, and the so-called four "common spaces" of cooperation (economy, internal security,

external security, research and education cooperation) agreed in 2003 during the Summit in St.

Petersburg

In addition, the leaders of Russia and the EU discuss bilateral issues in the annual summits.

This complex institutional framework, however, has not led to a qualitative leap forward in bilateral

cooperation and the fact that no common base of economic and political principles was agreed is

very daunting from an EU perspective. Russia seems determined to follow his own path in both

political and economic terms and does not seem interested in adapting itself to European standards

when it comes into conflict with its interests.

The question of principles tends to be obscured by other more pressing needs. In recent years,

the energy relations between Russia and EU member states have enhanced enormously their

importance. The European Union has failed to establish a common energy policy, even if this goal

has been several times reaffirmed by the European Council. Russia took the opportunity to enter

into agreements on a bilateral basis with individual member states11.

However, not only the issue of energy resources supply divides the Europeans. The contrast

between the member states who consider Russia an aggressive power and hope that the EU should

follow a strategy of containment and those who deem necessary friendly relations and point to the

policy of cooperation and involvement. The first include mainly the new member states, for whom

the experience of Soviet domination is recent history. Tensions between Russia and some of these

10 In addition to being one of the key partners on issues of European and international security, Russia is the EU's largest supplier of energy, a major trading partner and a major player in the management of issues ranging from immigration control to the struggle against organized crime.11 Like cooperation with Italy, France and Germany in the frame of North Stream (where the first line was activated on 6 September 2011 and pumped gas is expected to arrive to Germany at the beginning of October 2011), Blue Stream and South Stream projects.

16

countries, in particular Poland and Lithuania, have effectively blocked the start of EU-Russia

negotiations on the agreement that had to replace the PCA12.

Ultimately, the EU has a clear strategic objective: to build the foundations for a stable and

continuous cooperation with Russia; but it has the problem of accommodating the different,

sometimes conflicting, interests and priorities of its twenty-seven members. The countries that have

major business interests in developed and political relations with Russia are Germany and Italy, the

object of the present work.13 However, before tackling the issue on Italy-Russia relations it is

interesting to analyze the presence of Italian operators also in the Republics of the former Soviet

block.

1.3 Italian presence in the former Soviet space

1.3.1. Slavic republics: Ukraina, Bielorussia, Moldavia

In 2008, following the economic and financial crisis, the expected contraction of GDP in

Ukraine for 2009 ranged between -4 and -7%14. The trend of GDP and, therefore, domestic demand,

depended on the ability of the Ukrainian banking system to maintain support for families and

enterprises, strengthening its market capitalization with the entry of investors, including foreign

banks through mergers or public funds. Moreover, it should be seen if the growth in foreign demand

for Ukrainian steel, chemical and mechanical engineering products will take place.

Restrictions on use of the public deficit would be affected, however, the scope for fiscal

stimulus to support the government of the industries hit by the global crisis. It relies very much here

on World Bank and EBRD financing for infrastructure projects, and on appeal that the works

12 More specifically, the European countries that have open disputes with Russia are Great Britain (the relations between Moscow and London are undergoing a particularly difficult period especially for the implications of the murder of Alexander Litvinenko, former Russian spy poisoned in British capital at the end of 2006. Russia has long been at odds with Britain in part because the latter granted asylum to some indicted Russians who escaped the Russian authorities (among them there are “oligarchs”, as former media tycoon Boris Berezovsky, and many former agents of the security services), Estonia (the Estonian government's decision to remove a memorial in honor of Soviet soldiers of the Second world War in 2007 has been the subject of a diplomatic dispute between Russia and Estonia), Lithuania (which accuses Russia of stopping the supplies for about ten months of its only oil refinery in retaliation for the decision to sell the refinery to a Polish buyer rather than the Russian one), Poland (together with the Baltic States, Poland is the European country most concerned about a possible return of revanchist currents Russia. The rise to power of Kaczinski twins in Poland, who have never made any secret of their deep distrust of the Russians, has added an element of tension in the already tense relations between Warsaw and Moscow).13 According to some estimates, the Italian economic presence in Russia in 2009 was worth between 55 and 60 billion euros, more than double the 26.5 billion in 2008 the official Exchange. «Non solo energia: la presenza italiana vale 60 miliardi», 7 aprile 2009, Il Sole 24 Ore.14 Source: Rapporti Paese congiunti Ambasciate/Uffici ICE estero, Ucraina, 2 semestre 2008.

17

related to preparations for the European Championships of 201215 will have on private investors16.

There are, among other factors, the difficulties in the banking sector where the government in June

of 2009 had to nationalize the three largest private banks for a total of 1.25 billion dollars, bringing

its stake to 84.2% nell'Ukrgazbank, 99.97% in Rodovid Bank and 99.9% in Kiev Bank17.

After the recognition of market economy status by the European Union at the end of 2005, the

process of gradual integration of Ukraine in the international financial and economic system was

marked in 2008, by the entrance, May 16, in World Trade Organization. There were also opened in

February 2008, the negotiations for the creation of a Free Trade Area with the EU. The entrance in

WTO can be an incentive for manufacturing production in Ukraine, with the reduction of tariff

barriers and the progressive elimination of quantitative restrictions on imports from Ukraine.

2008 was another year of growth for the commercial exchange between Italy and Ukraine

amounted to approximately USD 5.3 billion (+19.6% compared to 2007). This result has recorded

an increase of 36% of Italian exports, which is to amount to a 8.8% increase in imports from

Ukraine. The balance between exports and imports for Italy was a negative U.S. $ 479 million even

though it was halved compared to 2007, when it stood at 885 million USD.

In 2008, Italy was confirmed the third EU commercial partner of Ukraine (after Germany and

neighboring Poland), making it the third community’s largest importer and the exporter. Since early

2009 the currency has lost more than 40% of its value against the euro and deposits in Ukrainian

banks dropped by 20%. However, the first half of 2009 has seen a drastic reduction of Ukrainian

imports (-53.4% over the same period of 2008), whose amount was equal to 19.77 billion dollars18.

In 2008, Ukraine's GDP grew by 2.1%, against +7.9% in 2007. However, according to IMF

forecasts, which despite having paid an installment of its loan to Ukraine in July, had to stop the

next one in November for failure to comply with commitments of reforms and deficit reduction in

2009's, Ukrainian economy would suffer from a decline of 15%. Estimates of Unicredit noted that

15 With all the indisputable advantages of this sporting event for the country, it, however, aggravates its debt situation: in December of 2009, the Ukrainian deputy Nemyria has appealed to the IMF requesting an emergency loan of two billion dollars for its realization.16 However, just the beginning of 2009 was very heavy for Ukraine. In the first two months of 2009 the Ukrainian economy has dropped by almost 30%. The crisis has seriously affected exports, dominated by steel and chemical fertilizers, which in late 2008 and early 2009 fell by 60 percent. In addition, the difficult political situation and the ongoing struggle between the political groups in Parliament and between the president and the prime minister was blocking the $ 16.4 billion loan from IMF, Source: "Crolla l’economia ucraina, il PIL perde il 30% in due mesi", Il Sole 24 Ore, 1 Aprile, 2009. Although the solution of this problem (at the end of July the third installment of $ 3.3 billion has been transferred in Ukraine) the aggravating factors were the continuing tensions between Moscow and Kiev in relation to supplies of natural gas and the high debt of the State which at the end of September 2009 (according to data of Ministry of Finance of Ukraine) was equal to 34.9 billion dollars. 17 “Kiev nazionalizza i primi tre istituti”, Il Sole 24 Ore, 11 giugno 2009.18 Italian Institute for Foreign Trade (Kiev headquarter, August 2009).

18

in 2009 the Ukrainian deficit would be 7.9% of GDP, but in 2010 was reduced to 4.9%. In any case,

the development of the country depends very much on the lines of action of new President19.

Nowadays there work approximately 150 Italian firms in Ukraine. They are active in

engineering, light industry and food, transport and services and trade. To cite a few cases of Italian

industrial giants: the Finmeccanica group is developing a network of relationships with institutions

in the Ukrainian space industry, communications and security. The Danieli has won a major

contract for the construction of a steel plant in Dnipropetrovsk with oven powered by electricity.

The Ardo Merloni has opened a factory in Ivano Frankivsk production of washing machines.

Another large investment is that of Emilceramica in Donietsk, launched with the support of Simest,

and which has recently seen the opening of a second production line. In the field of infrastructure,

"Todini Costruzioni Generali SpA" has won the tender for the renovation of a section of highway

between Kiev and the western border to Poland, of 182 km20.

In the banking/finance, where the foreign presence in 2008 has reached 34.3% of

capitalization, the positions of strong relief of the UniCredit Banking Group (which aims to become

the second foreign group in the country) and Intesa San Paolo can be noted. Among the sales office

you can mention the General (Insurance), New Holland and Iveco (commercial vehicles,

construction machinery), Indesit and Candy (appliances), Miroglio (clothing), Manuli (packaging

products), Ferrero (food), and Recordati Menarini (pharmaceuticals) and Alitalia (air transport).

Opportunities for Italian companies can derive from reductions in customs duties operational

since May 16, 2008, date of entry of Ukraine into the WTO. The most significant price reductions

concern, initially, planes, construction equipment, distilled spirits, pharmaceuticals, some chemicals

and petroleum products, medical equipment, timber, pulp and paper, textiles, basic metals, steel,

computer products, furniture and toys21.

19 The presidential elections held on January 17 of 2010 allocated 35.3% of the vote to Viktor Yanukovych, leader of the Ukrainian pro-Russian opposition and 25% to Yulia Tymoshenko, the prime minister. The outgoing president, Viktor Yushchenko was in fifth place with 5.5%.20 Geographically, Italian companies are spread over the whole territory of Ukraine, with the points of greatest intensity in Kiev, especially in trade and services in western and central regions, with a tendency to specialize in light industry (food, clothing , footwear, furniture, and leather processing), production of machinery and electrical equipment, and plant (building, transport infrastructure). Companies operating in metallurgical plant, mining and construction sectors are mostly located in Eastern Ukraine.21 As regards the other two ex-Soviet Slavic republics, Belarus and Moldova, they also have promising business opportunities. In the first half of 2009, the Belarus GDP grew by 0.3% and Italian imports decreased by 5%. Belarus also has some favorable conditions for foreign investors: the same slow process of privatization (started with Governmental resolution n.1021 of July 14, 2008), which is still at the beginning, means that the area of intervention is still very large; the available workforce is highly skilled on average compared with a cost that is still very low (in the month of June 2009 the average monthly wage was around $ 359), in addition, one should note that Belarus is not involved in military operations, has never declared a state of emergency on its territory and has never been the scene of international and ethnic conflicts. Also in Moldova the climate for foreign investment is very favorable: low labor costs (income per capita is the

19

1.3.2. Asiatic region: Kazakhstan, Kirghistan, Tadzhikistan, Turkmenistan

The Kazakh national currency, anchored within a fluctuation band to the U.S. dollar, has

begun to show signs of failure already in the last months of 2008, and after that suffered a

devaluation of about 20% at the beginning of February 2009.

However, although the effects of the credit crisis triggered by the high exposure of banks still

adversely affect foreign investment and domestic consumption in the medium term, the dramatic

fall of realty prices seems to stabilize and commerce in general is still animated by a discrete

dynamic, driven by the need to replenish stocks for several sectors. The Public Administration

continues to publish action plans for modernization in structural sectors like roads, railways,

aviation and maritime transport.

For the first time a substantial interest towards the food and zootechnical industries was

observed because of the country’s heavy dependence on imports from abroad. The good results in

cereal production, which for some years placed Kazakhstan as a world leader in the industry, lead to

positive evaluations for the supply of machinery and equipment. GDP growth of + 3.2% was driven

by increased industrial production (+3.1%) construction industry (+3.1%) services (+4.8%), while

agriculture marked a decrease of -4.3%. It is interesting to note that the production of goods,

including mining, represents 49% of GDP, while services account for 50.1%. The oil and gas sector

form GDP for 15%, whose growth in 2010 was equal, according to estimates by EIU-Bureau Van

Dijk, compared to 2009 to 2.4%22.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) have been the key element in the economic development of

Kazakhstan and compensate the scarcity of those "internal". In the period from 1993 until the third

quarter of 2008, gross inflows of FDI into the Kazakh economy amounted to 84,223.4 million USD.

Based on the assessment per capita this is the best result among the CIS countries23.

lowest in Europe), prospects of productivity growth, preferential arrangements with the CIS, which promotes exports of goods produced in Moldova and tax incentives. According to the statistics of 2008, the preferred by foreign investors sectors totaled about 90% of the flow of foreign investment, were wholesale and retail, manufacturing, financial, real estate, electricity, water supply and gas, while the agricultural sector remains the least attractive.22 Source: “Il Kazakhstan diventa hub”, Il Sole 24 Ore, 22 dicember 2009. Instead, “Business Week” estimates the kazak GDP growth in 2010 around 1,5%: “Kazakhstan trims growth forecast”, 22 January, 2010.23 According to the data of Italian Institute for Foreign Trade, in 2008 Italy contributed to total FDI in Kazakhstan for 3,6% and occupied the 10° position. The main investors in this country are Holland (19,1%) and United States (11,4%).

20

As far as Italian investments (9th position) is concerned, they are significant in the oil (ENI24)

and construction (Renco, Italcementi) sectors. Italian investments in other industrial sectors are still

missing. Anyway the main “target” sectors for foreign investors in Kazakhstan are represented by25:

agriculture and food: Kazakhstan, which just during the Soviet era provided with huge

amounts of grain together with Ukraine, is one of the leading suppliers in the world. It's

getting, in addition, increasing attention both from consumers - more and more interested

and willing to know and buy the products of international food industry available on the

market - and by large retailers committed to invest in large supermarkets and good

restaurants;

exploitation of raw materials: the subsoil contains 99 elements of the periodic table: 70 of

them are discovered, 60 are put into production26;

metal mechanics: especially for different production sectors, with particular reference to

agriculture. The Italian machines, in fact, though much appreciated for the quality, are

strongly influenced by the non-competitive prices in comparison to the Turkish, Russian,

and Chinese competition and must be supported and promoted with greater strength and

continuity;

fashion: the Italian product is placed in the middle-upper market segment and it is subject to

increasing demand from more affluent class of population which represents a real "status

24 The chief executive of Eni, Paolo Scaroni, and the president of KazMunayGas, Kairgeldy Kabyldin, signed in November 2009 a cooperation agreement for the development of exploration and production and industrial infrastructure in Kazakhstan. Final decisions on investment projects were planned within two years after the completion of detailed technical and market studies. Eni plans to further strengthen its presence in Kazakhstan, where he is the co-operator in the Karachaganak field and a partner in the consortium that manages the Kashagan field.25 It is the opinion of Frédéric Santelli Public Relations Chief of Bonatti (headquarter in Parma), an enterprise of constructions sector operating in Kazakhstan since 2001. Kazakhstan is a very promising country in the construction and Oil & Gas sectors, just think of the hydrocarbon deposits in Kashagan, one of the richest ever discovered in the world. The main competitors of Bonatti in Kazakhstan, are among the largest international contractors, and come not only from Italy, but also from the USA, Turkey, India, Arab countries and Korea. At the beginning it was very difficult to operate in Kazakhstan: this was due to the limited availability of materials, equipment and spare parts required for different stages of work. Today, however, complex regulatory structures create significant problems. Combining the Russian-Soviet and Western traditions, they are weighed down by a pressing national and local bureaucracy. At the beginning the company enjoyed more independent conditions from the workforce search point of view. Now the works have multiplied and have become more important, and there is a significant input in the acquisition of the local workforce. In 2009 75% of 2660 employees of the Bonatti in Kazakhstan were Kazakhs. In terms of transport, logistics and communications Kazakhstan still needs to develop, considered its very extended area - just think that its surface is five times that of France and eight times that of Italy - and must improve the portual infrastructure (the ports of Aktau and Bautino are already being upgraded). Source: www.eccellere.com., our translation.26 Just to mention some of them, Kazakhstan is in first place for deposits of zinc, tungsten, barite; in second place for silver, lead, chromium; third in copper; molybdenum in fourth place; fifth place for gold in the CIS. In 2009 he became the first world producer of uranium (Source: “Il Kazakhstan diventa hub”, Il Sole 24 Ore, 22 dicember 2009).

21

symbol", while in the medium-low areas Turkish and massive and growing Chinese

production are present.

Therefore, considering the numerous administrative obstacles (official and "unofficial" ones),

still present in the country, it is considered appropriate to continue to suggest extreme caution to

companies wishing to implement projects of investment and/or forms of internationalization of the

company providing productive activity relocation in this geographical area. Nevertheless, we must

take into account the growing "Europeanization" of the country whose capital Astana in 2010 took

over the chairmanship of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, making

Kazakhstan the first former Soviet state for this role.

The forecasts of the development of Kazakhstan are closely linked to the volume of extraction

of raw materials. Currently, Kazakhstan produces 1.5 million barrels per day of oil and 70 billion

cubic meters of gas a year. The crude oil production is expected to double within a few years after

that, starting in 2012, the large Kashagan field will enter into production27.

The reduced volume of Italian investments is characteristic also for other Asian countries. In

Kyrgyzstan, for example, the chronic shortage of electricity has not yet allowed a revival of

manufacturing, even if some investments in the energy sector are being developed. The exchange

between Italy and Kyrgyzstan has never been particularly significant although steadily increasing,

at least in terms of our exports of consumer goods and sundry equipment.

Imports of goods typically purchased by Italy in Kyrgyzstan (aluminum and refined

petroleum products) are reducing. The local demand, as well as some consumer goods (footwear,

clothing, furniture, etc..) is also aimed to the areas of capital goods or consumer durables such as

equipment, especially for food and electrical equipment/appliances. Italian productions, although

present, known and appreciated, do not cover, at present, significant spaces in the Kyrgyz market,

also because, being concentrated in the high market segment, they are directed to a narrow range of

users with good economic opportunities28. The situation is similar in Tadzhikistan, where even

today about two thirds of the population live in poverty.

As for Turkmenistan, another republic belonging to this area, cooperation with Italy is mainly

focused to the energy sector. Turkmenistan is the fourth country in the world for gas reserves and

27 Source: ASSOMIN, Associazione Mineraria Italiana, ottobre 2009.28 However, Kyrgyz reality is rather worrying especially from the point of view of its political instability. The last coup occurred in April of 2010 witnesses it: according to data from the Ministry of Health, at least 40 people were killed and 400 wounded during the clashes in the capital city of Bishkek, including demonstrators and security forces.

22

among the top holders of uranium reserves. The cooperation projects involve particularly ENEL and

Finmeccanica.

1.3.3. Repubbliche caucasiche: Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaidzhan

The Russian-Georgian conflict in August of 2008 produced a considerable impact on the

internal political situation of Georgia and its system of external relations, so as to require an almost

complete review of all the forecasts and evaluations29. The conflict has resulted in considerable

human and economic consequences, like infrastructure damage, the sudden impact on the areas of

public works, tourism, consumption, rising inflation and rising cost of money.

Italy is located at 13 place as the importer of Georgian products and at 9 place as the

exporter30 and the trade with Georgia has continued to register the positive trend during the last

years. In 2008 it rose by 23.4%, with a total of USD 199.6 million (compared to 161.8 in 2007).

Italian exports (181.6 million dollars) confirm the upward trend, although to a lesser extent than in

2007 (+26.1% vs. +41%). The Georgian exports in 2008 has confirmed the figure for 2007 (only a

+1.1% equal to USD 18 million against 17.8 the year before). The massive increase in funds for co-

operation has been achieved by the Conference of Grantors gathered in Brussels October 22, 2009

announced an allocation to the country for the next three years for approximately $ 4.5 billion31.

The establishment of free economic zone in the port of Poti was the important measures taken

to stimulate foreign investment in 2008. It coincided with the acquisition of 99,99% of the shares of

JSC Poti Seaport by the holding company of United Arab Emirates “RAK Investment Authority".

The idea of the project was to provide investors with an area possibly free from restrictions, next to

29 Immediately after the conflict with Russia in August 2008, the "Fitch" has revised downwards the IDR (Issuer Default Rating) of Georgia from "B +" to "BB-" in consideration of the negative impact that the conflict produced on medium- and long-term prospects of the Georgian economy. In contrast with the opinion expressed by Fitch the assessment provided by "Standard & Poor" was opposite: it has raised the rating of Georgia to "B" with "stable outlook", previewing a prompt restoration of Georgian economy and infrastructure, thanks to the significant international financial support. 30 The tense relations between Georgia and Russia represent a very worrying factor for the functioning of the economy in general and for the presence of Italian companies, in particular. It is witnessed by the latest scandal that involved Benetton, when in May 2009, the Novo Group, Benetton's turkish partner, announced the opening of a clothes shop in Sukhumi, the capital of Abkhazia, the pro-Russian republic which struggles for years against the Georgian central government. The result was the order from the Ministry of Commerce of Georgia to close (even if temporarily) all four Benetton shops in Tbilisi. Political tensions rose further after the demolition in December of 2009 of the memorial to the fallen of World War II in Kutaisi, Georgia's second city, where the Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili wanted to transfer the parliament. This action has caused some controversy and protests not only by Moscow, but also by the Georgian war veterans. However, there are also positive signs of improving this situation, like that of March 1, 2010 reopening of land border between Russia and Georgia closed two years ago (“Svobodnaya Gruzia”, “The free Georgia”, 5 May 2010).31 Rapporti Paese congiunti Ambasciate/Uffici Ice estero, Georgia, 2° semestre 2008.

23

a modern terminal, located in a strategic Black Sea, easy to deliver and to receive their products to

transform on market. The initiative covers a large industrial area (300 hectares dedicated to free

trade economic zone, 100 hectares of port area and about another 250 hectares of land). The RAK

has been committed to realize over the next few years, numerous infrastructure projects, which will

allow the development of the port and a flow of investments which is expected to exceed one billion

dollars.

Some of the advantages that the investors will benefit are: reduced rates for the rent of land

and warehouses, tax exemption (100%) on their profits, full currency convertibility, exemption

from payment of VAT on import and export products. This project can represent an interesting

opportunity for Italian economic and industrial system, especially for those companies that already

operate in the former CIS countries in transport, energy, construction, metallurgy, machinery for the

handling of goods and packaging32.

Despite the less encouraging economic indicators Georgian economy in 2008, it is hoped,

however, that the Georgian government wants to continue the process of economic reforms in order

to support better the growth of the small and medium-sized enterprises and to allow a restart of an

adequate industrial production. This might inspire more and more the Italian presence in the country

and through collaborative efforts of industrial training and promotion. Given the intense interest in

collecting Italian technology in Georgia in some productive sectors, it is appropriate to bring

forward the construction of the main missions of the Georgian sector fairs in Italy, particularly in

the field of agricultural machinery and equipment, textiles, machinery and building materials, and

machinery for woodworking.

Armenia, according to Forbes, ranks 63rd place in the world rankings of "Best Countries for

Business": it is the highest position among the CIS countries and the fourth among all those former

Soviet states, after the three Baltic States. However, after the financial crisis, the forecasts for 2009

were not encouraging, and the Armenian Central Bank has estimated a recession for 2009 of 9.5%.

Particularly serious for the country's economy was the sharp drop in remittances from the Diaspora

(particularly concentrated in Russia, the United States and France), a traditional instrument for

financing the Armenian structural trade deficit. This factor has further enhanced the appeal by the

32 It should be noted that during the meeting that the Italian Secretary for Foreign Affairs, Senator Alfredo Mantica, had with the Georgian Economy Minister Zhvania during his visit to Georgia (3-5 March 2009) some of areas of potential interest for Italian companies have been outlined. These include agro-industry sector, with respect to which he commended for the know-how accrued by Italian companies in the field of machinery. Particular emphasis was placed on opportunities in the field of hydropower energy.

24

Armenian authorities, the help of international donors: World Bank, IMF, EBRD, Asian

Development Bank, United States, Russia, the EU Commission and individual European countries33.

In the field of Armenia remains heavily dependent on Russia, which controls about 80% of

the Armenian energy sector through joint venture ArmRosGazprom. The good Italian performance

in the first six months of 2009 was mainly due to the opening in Yerevan, the Armenian capital, of

the Litokol AM factory owned by Italian firm Litokol SpA, operating in partnership with the

important Imex Group Ltd in the construction materials sector.

It should be noted here that the RENCO, a true pioneer of "Made in Italy" in this country,

where it operates since the late nineties with more than two dozen Italian employees, is one of the

protagonists of the building "boom" in Yerevan, including the most recent construction of the first

in the capital multilevel car parking under the Opera Theatre. The RENCO, the manufacturer, of the

building where the headquarters of the Embassy of Italy are situated, also manages two of the

leading hotels in Yerevan. It is useful to recall that an Italian company, the GIERRET, has launched

a joint venture in the country and in the guise of "Arenergy" works in the region of Shirak in pursuit

of fields for the production of wind energy. In addition, a feasibility study, funded under the TACIS

program, was launched in October 2008 by Lattanzio e Associati, in consortium with another two

Italian companies and one Ukrainian, for rehabilitation of Yerevan-Tbilisi railway. Finally, the

GEMMO is present (as subcontractor) in the airport sector.

In total terms of trade with Armenia, in the first half of 2009, Italy was ranked ninth (third

among EU countries, after Germany and Bulgaria). According to data provided by the National

Statistics Service, Italy was ranked eighth among the exporting countries (it was the eleventh in the

first half of 2008), while it was the twelfth importer of Armenian (the ninth in the first half of 2008)

products34.

The collaboration of Italian companies with the Azerbaidzhan mainly regards the energy

sector (we note the presence of Saipem from ENI Group). The Azerbaidzhan is also located on the

borders of the Russian region of Dagestan, a region where security is fragile in some respects. The

most critical surged as oil reserves are still uncertain and believe that they may run out around 2025

33 According to the IMF it would be desirable to the Armenian market to favour the entry of foreign banks that make competition for the UK's HSBC and Germany ProCreditBank, the only foreign banks in the country so far.34 A further opportunity for Italian business in Armenia is given by the communication of June 12, 2008 by which the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has announced that May 5, 2008 came into force, the Convention of 14 June 2002 between the Government of the Italian Republic and the government of the Republic of Armenia for the avoidance of double taxation with respect to taxes on income and on capital and the prevention of fiscal evasion.

25

and that the decline in production is very close: 2012. Anyway, other sources speak instead about

2045 and remember how many areas have not yet been thoroughly explored.

1.3.4. Paesi Baltici: Estonia, Lituania, Lettonia

Le conseguenze della crisi finanziaria nei Paesi baltici sono state drastiche. La flessione del

PIL accompagnata da una brusca riduzione degli stipendi, soprattutto di quelli pubblici a causa delle

politiche dei tagli ai bilanci statali35, ha provocato in tutte e tre repubbliche massicce ondate

migratorie (figure 8 e 9).36

Fig. 8 Variazione annua del PIL nei Paesi baltici (%), (con previsioni per il 2010 e 2011, ns.elab.)

Fig. 9 Tassi di disoccupazione nei Paesi baltici (%), (con previsioni per il 2010 e 2011, ns.elab.)

La pressione fiscale in Estonia è tra le più basse dell’Unione Europea. L’aliquota impositiva,

unica sia per le persone fisiche che giuridiche, è stata ridotta dal 1° gennaio 2008 al 21%.

35 In Lettonia, ad esempio, il nuovo premier Vladis Dombrovskis (ex-ministro delle Finanze nonché capo economista della Banca Centrale lettone) ha annunciato nel 2009 il taglio pari a 990 milioni di euro (manovra che, sommata ai tagli di 1,43 miliardi di euro decisi dal Governo precedente, è pari al 12% del PIL). Fonte: “Allarme del neo-premier, Lettonia alla bancarotta”, 27 febbraio 2009 Il Sole 24 Ore.36 Fonte: “Nei paesi baltici il lavoro non c’è più”, Il Sole 24 Ore, 31 gennaio 2010. Secondo le stime del “The Baltic Times”, invece, le contrazioni del PIL nel 2010 avrebbero raggiunto l’1,8% in Estonia, il 4% in Lettonia ed il 3% in Lituania (“Another Down Year for Baltics”, 25 febbraio, 2010).

26

L’ulteriore riduzione di 1 punto percentuale, prevista per il 2009, è stata annullata a causa della

forte crisi economica in atto. La snellezza del sistema impositivo, unita alla chiarezza della

regolamentazione e alle basse aliquote ha permesso all’Estonia di collocarsi al 5° posto (dopo

Cipro, Irlanda, Svizzera, Malta e Finlandia) in un recente sondaggio condotto da KPMG tra gli

imprenditori circa i sistemi fiscali più attraenti in Europa (Lettonia e Lituania, nonostante

applichino aliquote fiscali più basse di quelle estoni, nel sondaggio appaiono rispettivamente al 16°

e 17° posto)37.

Nel 2008 il saldo passivo della bilancia commerciale estone verso l’Italia è ammontato a oltre

175 milioni di Euro, registrando – rispetto al 2007 - una diminuzione di circa il 25%. Dal punto di

vista delle importazioni dall’Italia38, la parte del leone la fanno i macchinari, apparecchiature

meccaniche e materiale elettrico (28,9%); seguono i veicoli, aerei, navi e relativi equipaggiamenti

(13,6%); i prodotti tessili (11,7%); i metalli di base e relativi prodotti (8,4%).

Se si analizza la composizione merceologica delle esportazioni verso l’Italia, che nel 2008

hanno subito un ulteriore incremento del 23,3%, i macchinari e le apparecchiature meccaniche

hanno rappresentato il 35,5% del totale, seguiti dal settore del legno e relativi prodotti (11,1%);

veicoli, aerei, navi e equipaggiamenti relativi (10,8%); prodotti animali (8,2%)39.

Al 31 dicembre 2008, lo stock cumulativo degli investimenti diretti esteri effettuati nella

Repubblica Estone da imprese italiane, risultava essere di circa 38,5 milioni di Euro, che

rappresentava soltanto lo 0,3% del totale. L’ammontare degli investimenti estoni in Italia, sempre

nello stesso periodo, è ammontato a circa 154,1 milioni di Euro, il 3,2% del totale (+47%).40

Gli investimenti italiani più conosciuti in Estonia sono quelli effettuati, in particolare negli

anni passati, dall’imprenditore Ernesto Preatoni e dalla sua società, la Pro Kapital AS. 41 Fra gli altri

37 L’Estonia si colloca, inoltre, al 12º posto nella lista predisposta dal Wall Street Journal and Heritage Foundation dei Paesi in cui l’attività economica è più liberale. Il volume dell’interscambio commerciale con l’Italia ha registrato, a partire dall’acquisizione dell’indipendenza del Paese, un costante e progressivo aumento in termini di valore assoluto. I dati del 2008 registrano una leggera flessione delle esportazioni italiane e una buona performance delle esportazioni estoni in Italia. E´difficile al momento capire se si tratta di un cambiamento strutturale dei termini dell´interscambio bilaterale o è semplicemente un fenomeno legato alla congiuntura economica internazionale.38 L’11mo esportatore nel 2008 ed il 13mo nel primo semestre del 2009. Il primo partner commerciale estone in assoluto in termini sia dell’export che dell’import è la Finlandia. Le esportazioni italiane di maggior interesse per l’Estonia sono date da prodotti metalmeccanici, macchine ed apparecchi elettrici, bevande, mobili.39 La crisi finanziaria ha modificato notevolmente tutti questi parametri: le importazioni estoni dall’Italia nel primo semestre del 2009 si sono quasi dimezzate (-47%) rispetto allo stesso periodo dell’anno precedente, mentre le esportazioni hanno subìto un calo del 24%. Fonte: Rapporti Paese congiunti Ambasciate/Uffici Ice estero, Estonia, 1 semestre 2009.40 Nel primo semestre 2009, il flusso degli investimenti diretti bilaterali effettuati da imprese italiane in Estonia risultava essere di circa 37,8 milioni di Euro, pari al 0,4% del totale, mentre quelli effettuati da imprese estoni in Italia ammontavano a circa 155,5 milioni di Euro, pari al 3,4% del totale.41 I suoi interessi si sono inizialmente concentrati soprattutto nel settore finanziario - bancario, attraverso la Preatoni Bank (poi venduta ad un gruppo di investitori greci), nel settore turistico con l’agenzia di viaggi Domina Travel, nel settore alberghiero con gli hotels della catena Domina (Domina Ilmarine ed Domina City), ed anche, fortemente, nel

27

investimenti italiani possono essere citate la Costech International, che produce apparecchiature

scientifiche e di misurazione, la Thor Baltic, che vende macchine utensili e per la lavorazione di

legno e metalli, la Vigala Piimatööstus che produce prodotti lattiero-caseari, tra l’altro anche la

mozzarella, ed anche un importante investimento italiano sull’isola di Hiiumaa, riguardante il

settore del legname e della sua lavorazione.

Nello sviluppo del software, nelle TLC e Biotech, l’Estonia ha punte di eccellenza

internazionalmente riconosciute aperte a interessanti possibilità di cooperazione commerciale ed

industriale.

Un settore di reciproco interesse per le imprese italiane interessate a coniugare alta intensità di

conoscenza con alta capacità di produzione è rappresentato dalla meccatronica, in particolare nelle

applicazioni ai comparti di beni strumentali, elettromeccanici, impianti e macchine lavorazione del

legno, impianti e macchine tessili. Si ritiene opportuno qui richiamare l´attenzione sul fatto che per

rendere competitivo il suo sistema industriale nell’UE e nel’economia internazionale, l’Estonia ha

bisogno di continuare ad ammodernare i suoi macchinari ed equipaggiamenti. Finora, a trasformare

questo bisogno in opportunità per il “sistema Italia” sono stati soprattutto gli operatori estoni

comprando “italiano”, più che le imprese italiane ad aver venduto in Estonia. Il debole interesse fin

qui registrato da parte delle imprese italiane per il mercato estone si auspica possa presto venir

modificato.42

In Lituania il sistema produttivo ha attraversato una fase di profonda trasformazione. Prima

dell’acquisizione dell’indipendenza nel 1991 l’industria occupava una posizione di primo piano

nell’economia lituana, seguita dall’agricoltura, dalle costruzioni e dai trasporti. Dopo lo

smembramento dall’Unione Sovietica, la Lituania ha perso il suo mercato principale e la possibilità

di accesso a fonti energetiche a prezzi convenienti: non essendo membri della Comunità degli Stati

Indipendenti, i Paesi baltici hanno dovuto pagare in dollari il carburante importato dalla Russia. La

crescente emigrazione e l’aumento della produzione dei servizi in Lituania avevano contribuito in

maniera rilevante alla riduzione della disoccupazione fino al 2007.

Ultimamente tuttavia, oltre ad un considerevole aumento della disoccupazione, si nota una

nuova tendenza costituita dal basso grado di qualificazione professionale in possesso di coloro che

si propongono sul mercato del lavoro: in aggiunta al problema della disoccupazione, si sta quindi

settore immobiliare attraverso la realizzazione di numerose opere di costruzione e ristrutturazione, la più recente delle quali è stata la realizzazione del centro residenziale Ilmarine, vicino al porto turistico di Tallinn.42 Un´interessante occasione in questo senso potrebbe essere rappresentata dal forte stimolo offerto dai programmi di sviluppo delle tre Repubbliche Baltiche, nel loro insieme, programmi ampiamente sostenuti dai fondi strutturali 2007-2013 messi a disposizione dall'Unione Europea che si stima saranno pari al 3-4% del PIL di ciascun Paese, fondi che la recente crisi rende, di fatto, gli unici prontamente attivabili e spendibili nel breve periodo.

28

affacciando quello della mancanza di manodopera qualificata. Tale fenomeno è da mettere in

relazione alla cospicua fuga di “cervelli” dal Paese cui si è assistito dall’inizio del nuovo millennio

ed alla quale queste competenti Autorità stanno cercando di porre un freno attraverso un sistema di

incentivi sia per i giovani neo-laureati sia per le aziende private.

Un’importanza rilevante nel panorama industriale lituano è rivestita dal comparto del tessile e

dell’abbigliamento, che nel 2008 si è collocato al primo posto per numero di occupati (27% della

forza lavoro impiegata nell’industria) ed al secondo per volume di produzione (16% della

produzione manifatturiera)43. La Lituania può vantare oltre 500 industrie tessili (una sessantina delle

quali oltre i 200 dipendenti, riunite in un’associazione indipendente di categoria chiamata Latia), un

ottimo livello degli operatori del settore, oltre che una consolidata tradizione di efficienza e qualità

del processo produttivo. Fino al 1999, il settore tessile ha registrato un’importante crescita orientata

soprattutto verso l’export (in quell’anno arrivò ad assorbire il 22,8% delle esportazioni lituane);

negli ultimi 8-9 anni esso ha tuttavia fatto segnare un progressivo ridimensionamento ed

attualmente rappresenta il 7,8% del volume dell’export lituano44.

Nel giugno 2006 le Forze Armate della Repubblica di Lituania hanno firmato con Alenia

Aeronautica un contratto del valore di 75 milioni di euro – il più grande contratto di vendita mai

ottenuto da un’azienda italiana in Lituania – per la fornitura di tre esemplari del velivolo da

trasporto tattico di nuova generazione C-27J. La selezione dell’aereo è avvenuta nell’ambito di una

gara per il rinnovo dell’attuale flotta di bimotori An-26 di fabbricazione sovietica in servizio con la

forza aerea lituana. I C-27J saranno impiegati per il trasporto di truppe e materiali, anche al di fuori

dei confini nazionali, nel quadro di operazioni regolate dagli accordi Nato, organizzazione della

quale la Lituania è membro dal 2004. La consegna del primo esemplare di C-27J è stata effettuata

alla fine del 2006, le successive stanno avendo la cadenza di un velivolo all’anno a partire dal 2008.

Il C-27J rappresenta il programma più avanzato dell’ultima generazione di aerei da trasporto tattico

militare e permetterà alle Forze Armate lituane, impegnate in una campagna di ammodernamento

dei propri mezzi, di disporre di velivoli in grado di soddisfare pienamente gli standard di

interoperabilità previsti per i Paesi dell’Alleanza Atlantica.

43 Tra le imprese del settore tessile che hanno deciso di cogliere i vantaggi del mercato lituano, spicca il nome della Marzotto S.p.A., che ha deciso di delocalizzare qui parte della propria produzione, aprendo uno stabilimento a Kaunas nell’aprile 2000.44 Tuttavia, la produzione industriale è in netto calo e, solo nel mese di luglio 2009, si è contratta del 15,7%. Stesso discorso per il volume del commercio al dettaglio, che risulta diminuito nello stesso periodo del 27,1% rispetto all’analogo periodo dell’anno precedente. In più, la nuova sfida per l’economia lituana è data dalla recente chiusura della centrale nucleare di Ignalina con conseguente necessità di assicurare le forniture energetiche che ha condotto a costi energetici significativamente più elevati nel 2010 ed oltre.

29

Circa l’interscambio commerciale della Lituania con altri Paesi, il partner più solido sia nelle

importazioni che nelle esportazioni è la Federazione Russa. L’Italia si colloca al 16° posto come

importatore dei prodotti lituani (-20% nel primo semestre del 2009 rispetto allo stesso periodo del

2008) ed al 6° posto come esportatore (-46,6%). Le figure che seguono mostrano alcuni dati sulla

dinamica del commercio Italia-Lituania.

Fig. 10 Importazioni ed esportazioni italiane dalla e verso la Lituania (milioni di euro)

Fig. 11 Esportazioni italiane in Lituania: struttura per settori merceologici (milioni di euro)

Per quanto riguarda la meccanica strumentale le imprese italiane, anche di media e piccola

dimensione, potrebbero fornire al mercato lituano strumenti tecnologicamente più avanzati di quelli

al momento disponibili, inserendoli progressivamente nelle linee di produzione già esistenti. Non

sarebbe così necessario per le imprese locali investire in una sola volta in un impianto

completamente nuovo, considerato che spesso questo rappresenta un impegno eccessivo da un

punto di vista finanziario. Alquanto debole rimane tuttora la nostra posizione relativamente agli

investimenti diretti e alle partecipazioni industriali (solo ventiquattresimo Paese di provenienza dei

flussi di investimento al 31.12.2008), con un arretramento di due posizioni rispetto alla graduatoria

del 2007 e nonostante le grandi opportunità offerte dal Paese45.

45 Per quanto riguarda gli indicatori internazionali del business climate, il Doing Business 2009 posiziona la Lituania al 26° posto su 183 Paesi; il World Economy Forum 2009-2010 la fa retrocedere di 9 posti (dal 44° al 53°) rispetto al periodo precedente; l’Index of Economic Freedom 2009 la pone al 30° posto su 179 Paesi, mentre il Corruption Perceptions Index 2008 pone la Lituania al 58° posto su 180 Paesi.

30

In Lettonia gli effetti della crisi finanziaria si sono manifestati già alla fine del 2008 con la

diminuzione del PIL, a prezzi costanti, del 4,6% al dicembre 2008 in rapporto all’anno precedente.

Tale decremento è stato causato da un fortissimo calo della domanda interna che ha raggiunto al

dicembre 2008 il –13,4% e dal calo degli investimenti di capitale fisso lordo pari al 15%. I settori

che risultano essere maggiormente in crisi e che guidavano tale decremento sono il manifatturiero (-

8,9%), l’edilizia (-7,4%). Il potere di acquisto della popolazione residente è diminuito sensibilmente

anche sulla scia dell’ormai ristrettissimo accesso al credito, ai tagli degli stipendi sia pubblici che

privati e alla bassa fiducia nei mercati internazionali46.

Nel 2009 l’economia lettone ha subìto un’ulteriore forte flessione recessiva sulla scia della

crisi che ha colpito l’economia globale. La Lettonia sta attualmente utilizzando le varie tranches del

prestito di 7,5 mld. di Euro concessogli da diverse istituzioni erogatrici (il FMI 1,7 mld, l’UE 3,1

mld e gruppi di Paesi tra cui gli Scandinavi, Estonia inclusa, per 1,9 mld di Euro la Polonia, la

Repubblica Ceca e la BERS 0,4 mld e la Banca Mondiale 0,4 mld) al fine di sostenere l’economia.

Per accedere ai finanziamenti è stato richiesto al Paese di razionalizzare e ridurre in modo sensibile

la spesa pubblica e stimolare ed aiutare l’economia anche attraverso una serie di riforme strutturali,

per giungere al rafforzamento del potenziale di crescita economica.

Il decremento del PIL è stato causato da un fortissimo calo della domanda interna e dal calo

degli investimenti di capitale fisso lordo. Nel II trimestre 2009 l’interscambio complessivo della

Lettonia ha fatto registrare una rilevante flessione, esso è stato infatti di oltre 5,869 miliardi di Euro,

ovvero il 34,32% in meno rispetto all’interscambio fatto registrare nello stesso periodo dello scorso

anno. L’Italia si trova all’11mo posto nella graduatoria dell’interscambio complessivo con Lettonia

(il nono esportatore dei propri prodotti in Lettonia ed il 16mo importatori dei prodotti lettoni) ed il

suo valore nel periodo 2008-2009 (1 semestre) si è ridotto del 37,6% (figg. 12-13)47.

46 Secondo le previsioni del Financial Times, Lettonia insieme a Estonia e Lituania possono provocare la cosiddetta «esplosione baltica» poiché le banche presenti a Riga hanno adottato atteggiamenti molto aggressivi sul fronte del credito. Alla fine del 2008 l’esposizione delle sole banche svedesi nei confronti di questi tre Paesi era pari al 18% del PIL della Svezia e gran parte dei mutui erano denominati in euro, mentre i guadagni della gente sono in valuta locale, fattore che potrebbe provocare un’ondata dei mancati rimborsi nel caso della sua svalutazione. Fonte: “BCE in soccorso della Svezia”, Il Sole 24 Ore, 11 giugno, 2009.47 Non è molto significativo anche il volume degli investimenti italiani nell’economia lettone – 24mo posto (i primi tre sono stabilmente occupati da Estonia, Svezia e Danimarca).

31

Fig. 12 Importazioni ed esportazioni italiane dalla e verso la Lettonia (milioni di euro)

Fig. 13 Esportazioni italiane in Lettonia: struttura per settori merceologici (milioni di euro)

Il settore bancario lettone, composto da 23 banche commerciali, tra cui il gruppo italiano

Unicredit che ha rilevato la HVB Vereinsbank, e che negli ultimi anni si era considerevolmente

rafforzato, contribuendo positivamente alla stabilità macroeconomica del Paese, ha subito alla fine

dello scorso anno una sostanziale battuta d’arresto a causa della crisi finanziaria internazionale.48

In definitiva, la lontananza geografica del mercato lettone e le sue ridotte dimensioni, sia in

termini di popolazione (poco meno di 2,3 milioni di abitanti), che di potere d’acquisto (lo stipendio

medio lordo mensile si attesta intorno agli 670 Euro) sembrano essere fattori poco incentivanti per

le piccole e medie imprese italiane. Tuttavia, questi fattori sono però più che compensati dai

vantaggi rappresentati dall’appartenenza del Paese all’Unione Europea e dalla posizione geografica

che fa della Lettonia un hub logistico naturale di un mercato più vasto, costituito dalle altre

Repubbliche baltiche e dalle regioni nord-occidentali della Russia.

In questa fase di acuta incertezza circa i tempi e le modalità di evoluzione della crisi

internazionale, l’Ufficio ICE a Riga ritiene che l´imprenditoria locale risponderà alla crisi

intensificando lo sforzo di ammodernamento sia dei prodotti che degli impianti. In questo senso il

comparto più promettente per l’export italiano dovrebbe rimanere quello dei beni di investimento

48 Caso emblematico quello della Parex Banka, terzo istituto di credito lettone, nazionalizzato nel novembre del 2008 per evitarne il fallimento con un investimento a carico delle finanze pubbliche inizialmente pari a 354 milioni di euro.

32

(macchine lavorazione metalli e legno, macchine per imballaggio, macchine per industrie

alimentari, macchine e apparecchi elettrici, etc.) e beni di investimento come impianti di

cogenerazione di energia, etc. Il rischio elevato è rappresentato dalla continua contrazione dei

consumi privati che si ribalterà anche sui prodotti “Made in Italy” di qualità media mentre saranno

stabili o cresceranno i consumi di prodotti di lusso.

Si ritiene opportuno qui richiamare l´attenzione sul fatto che per rendere competitivo il suo

sistema industriale nell´UE e nell´economia internazionale, la Lettonia ha bisogno di continuare ad

ammodernare i suoi macchinari ed equipaggiamenti. Finora, a trasformare questo bisogno in

opportunità per il Sistema Italia sono stati soprattutto gli operatori lettoni comprando “italiano”, più

che le imprese italiane ad aver venduto in Lettonia. Nei settori tecnologicamente avanzati, ove le

ditte italiane hanno raggiunto buoni livelli di specializzazione, sarebbero possibili sinergie ed

interazioni con i più importanti comparti dell’industria locale, soprattutto nei settori dei beni

strumentali e dell’impiantistica. Interventi andrebbero sviluppati non solo per fornire macchinari,

impianti e componenti, ma anche per incentivare investimenti e collaborazioni industriali.

1.4 Analisi della situazione macroeconomica russa e del ruolo del commercio italiano

The recent financial crisis has revealed different weaknesses of the Russian economic system

and, in particular, the substantial external debt of the industry which in 2008 reached hundreds of

billions of dollars. As in all major industrialized countries, in Russia the stock market has

undergone significant changes to the bottom and the banks have shown difficulties in the

management of their liquidity.

However, since the last great Russian economic crisis of 1998, thanks to large reserves

accumulated over the years, the central bank could provide liquidity to the market for 15 billion

euros and this has produced more stability on the markets.

Another unknown factor in the economic scenario of the Russian Federation is represented by

the variation in prices of raw materials. Among the large emerging economies in the world (BRIC

countries), Russia in 2008 has been for nearly seven years in third place as a dynamic development,

after China and India. The dynamics of the main GDP components according to the data of Federal

Service for Statistics made it increase in 2008 by 25,4% in comparison to 200749.

49 However, forecasts for 2009 were not favorable. Already in January, GDP decreased by 8,8% over the same month of 2008 and industrial production has fallen by 16% compared to one year before, making it the worst performance of the previous 10 years. In addition, the GDP in 2009 was likely to be hit by the decreasing of real incomes and wages (respectively 8, 3 and 4.1%). Source: «Affonda (-8,8%) il Pil russo», Il Sole 24 ore, 25 febbruary 2009.

33

According to the European Central Bank50, GDP growth reached 9.4% in the fourth quarter of

2007 (+7.6% in the third) and economic activity remained rapid in 2008 with growth rates of GDP

(8,9%), manufacturing (6.2%) and investments (20.2%) compared to the same period of 200751. The

sectors with highest development rates were those of infromatics, plastc and machinery (fig. 15).

Fig. 15 The main industrial sectors in 2008 (Fonte: PROMOS, 2008)

The commodities market, even remaining dominant in the industrial production slowed in

four years its annual growth: +7% in 2004 from the 1,9% in 2007. Being the world's largest

producer of natural gas and at the top as an oil producer52, Russia, taking account of its export

obligations, but also the growing domestic demand, risks an energy deficit, if not adequately invest

time and accelerate the development of its big new fields, which are located in climatically difficult

regions (such as the Siberian Arctic Yamal peninsula) and in practice has almost no needed

infrastructure53.

50 Source: Banca Centrale europea, bollettino mensile giugno, 200851 Source: Goskomstat, Servizio Federale per la Statistica della Federazione Russa, www.gks.ru;52 In 2010, Russia has maintained the world leading positions regarding the oil production which reached in July 10,14 million barrels per day and slightly reduced (10,06 million barrels per day) in August. For the production of gas, a decline was recorded due to reduced demand (both domestic and foreign), with forecasts of regrowth, which - according to experts - is expected to reach pre-crisis volume only since 2012.53 The Russian electricity system does not satisfy the growing needs for energy of households and industry. Quote of the growing domestic demand for electricity, which increases on average by 4.5% per year, are absorbed by the most developed industrial areas, but the country remains deficient in terms of both production facilities and in the transmission networks. In the winter of 2008 the supply of electricity has suffered restrictions in seven provinces. Source: «Enel punta 1,5 miliardi nelle centrali russe», Il Sole 24 ore, 14 settembre 2008;

34

However, considerable stocks of raw materials may allow Russia to achieve economic

expansion and unprecedented financial and government policy supported this process by means of

the Russian State Stabilization Fund, which accumulated in 2007 157.4 billion dollars coming from

exports of oil.

In the domestic policy, the Russian government has launched May 20, 2008 a massive

infrastructure program, with planned investments for 570 billion dollars over the following seven

years, called "The development of transport in Russia until 2015", aimed to upgrading and

developing the system of roads, railways and transport across the country. This plan, which was

planned to fund by 35% from the federal budget to regional budgets by 5% and 60% by private

capital, involves the construction of at least 17,000 km. of roads, 3,000 km. of railway tracks and

more than 100 new airports, while the current structure of the seaport and inland waterways will be

enhanced with a capacity capable of handling 400 million tons of cargo per year54.

Russian exports in 2007 compared to 2006 increased in value by 17.1%, while imports,

including the area of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), reported a record increase of

44.9%. The total exchange in 2007 was 552.1 billion dollars, an increase of 25.7% over 200655.

As for the Italian economic system before the crisis, in 2005 exports to Russia grew by 22.4%

(6.075 billion euro) and imports also registered an increase of 20.5% (11.704 million euros). This

trend continued in 2006 and 2007: Italian exports rose by a further 25.3% recording a value of

9.577 billion euros, placing Italy in second place after Germany, while imports (if largely for the

energy dependence of Italy) rose to 14.354 billion euros (+5.6%).

In the first four months of 2008, trade volume between Italy and Russia amounted to 8 billion

euros, with a deficit between imports and exports for Italy of 1.9 billion euros. Italian exports to

Russia in 2010 (with a total value amounted to approximately $ 3.9 billion and have positioned the

country at the 4 place, as with Japan, among the most important world exporters in Russia) have

large shares for the mechanical, clothing, leather products and other (fig. 17).

However, regarding the investments in Russia, the positions of the Italian companies can be

further consolidated (Fig. 18). Italy in 2010 (and in previous years) did not enter neither among the

top ten investors. It is necessary, instead, to avoid a merely commercial approach, in a market in

which the presence of foreign productive investment, especially in areas such as food, cars,

clothing, furniture, building materials, etc.. begins to become (and will become more and more over

the next 5-10 years) determinant.

54 Source: "Federazione Russa: positivo il primo quadrimestre 2008", PROMOS;55 Source: "Federazione Russa: positivo il primo quadrimestre 2008", PROMOS, ns.elab;

35

Fig. 17 The main exporters in Russia, 1 semester of 2010 (billion USD). Source: Rapporti Paese congiunti Ambasciate/Uffici Ice estero, 1 sem. 2010

Fig. 18 The main investors in Russia, 1 semester of 2010 (mln. USD). Source: Rapporti Paese congiunti Ambasciate/Uffici Ice estero, 1 sem. 2010

Ultimately, the Italian companies should not underestimate the volume of investments to

realize to enter the Russian market. In particular, to establish a permanent presence (the factor that

necessarily affects the company culture, the ways of doing business for local companies and,

consequently, the diffusion of new business practices) factors like advertising, information,

distribution system and post-sales service have more weight and importance than in other markets.

36