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Transcript of © Vanguard Partners 2005 - All rights reserved. Copyright A Management Seminar The “Essence” of...
© Vanguard Partners 2005 - All rights reserved.Copyright
A Management Seminar
The “Essence” of Value-Based Finance
Presented by:
Roy E. Johnson
Vanguard Partners Ridgefield, Connecticut
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Discussion Topics
The “Essence” of Value-Based Finance (VBF) Page/s
– Overview of VBF 3 – 6
– The “Accounting” Model 7 – 13
– Value “Indicators” 14• The “Economic” Model 15 – 17 • Financial “Drivers” 18 – 21
– Value “Analysis” 22• Market Value Added (MVA) 23• The “Magnifier” Effect 24 – 28
– Allocating Resources – Based on “Value Creation” 29 – 31
– Summary 32
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“Overview” of Value-Based Finance
(VBF)
“Overview” of Value-Based Finance
(VBF)
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Overview
Focused on financial performance, VBF is part of an overall corporate management system that needs to “balance” the value delivered to customers with economic performance.
Therefore, Value-Based Finance (VBF) needs to “fit” within the strategic direction, level of financial sophistication and cultural environment of the corporation.
Value-Based Finance (VBF) is a system to help management deliver value to “shareholders”.
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BusinessStrategy
BusinessStrategy
Investment andOperations
Investment andOperations
WorkforceEngagementWorkforce
Engagement
PerformanceMeasurement
PerformanceMeasurement
One way to view VBF is as a sub-system of a larger value-based management (VBM) system, integrating the needs of customers and shareholders.
Overview
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Strategy“Evaluation”
Strategy“Evaluation”
“Hardwiring”Strategy to
Budgets
“Hardwiring”Strategy to
Budgets
“Economic”Performance
“Economic”Performance
Financial “Drivers”
Business Analysis
“Alignment” …Managers toShareholders
“Alignment” …Managers toShareholders
“Value-Based” Metrics
Corporate Goals
Overview
Within this framework, VBF coordinates key financial activities.
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The “Accounting” Model
The “Accounting” Model
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The “Accounting” Model
“Base Period” CO. ‘A’ CO. ‘B’ CO. ‘C’
Revenue [Sales] $1,000 $1,000 $1,000
Cost of Sales 200 500 800
Gross Profit - $ 800 500 200
- % 80% 50% 20%
Most “accounting” analysis begins with a determination of “Gross Profit”.
This analysis indicates major differences in the relationship of selling price(s) to product cost(s) among the three companies.
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“Base Period” CO. ‘A’ CO. ‘B’ CO. ‘C’
Revenue [Sales] $1,000 $1,000 $1,000
Cost of Sales 200 500 800
Gross Profit 800 500 200
Operating Expenses 650 350 50
Operating Profit 150 150 150 Taxes @ 33% 50 50 50
Net Profit - $ $100 $100 $100
- % 10% 10% 10%
Most “accounting” analysis ends with a determination of “Net Profit”.
Factoring in Operating Expenses essentially completes the analysis.
The “Accounting” Model
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“Base Period” CO. ‘A’ CO. ‘B’ CO. ‘C’
Revenue [Sales] $1,000 $1,000 $1,000
Net Operating Profit [NOP] - $ $100 $100 $100 - % 10% 10% 10%
The Accounting (“Earnings”) model stops here. In this case, all companies are the same ... and, all are “profitable”.
The “accounting” analysis can be summarized as follows:
The “Accounting” Model
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Correlation of EPS to Market Value
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
Mar
ket
Val
ue
/ In
vest
ed C
apit
al
2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0
EPS Growth
K
RAH
OATMCCRK
SLEHNZ
RAL
CPC
CAG
TYSNA NA
HSY
CPB
GIS
MSTR
R2 = 1%
Source: Credit Suisse/First Boston
The “Accounting” model does not do a good job, however, of explaining “Value”.
The “Accounting” Model
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Average Market Multiples – S&P Industrials 0.7 1.1 2.1 2.2 4.2
0.9 1.1 1.5 1.5 2.5
1.0 0.9 1.2 1.7 3.2
0.7 0.9 1.2 1.7 3.1
0.7 1.0 1.0 1.4 2.2
0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.6
>-4% -4 to –2% -2 to 2% 2 to 4% >4% Return on Investment “Spread” … ROI less Cost of Capital
RevenueCGR - % >16%
12 to 16%
8 to 12%
4 to 8%
1 to 4%
> 1%
Revenue Growth, ROI Spreads and Market Multiples
Source: Hewitt Associates
…And, revenue growth alone does not create shareholder value. There must be a “return on capital”.
The “Accounting” Model
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Why?From a financial perspective:
Accounting was not created to do value analysis … rather, its origins are in “credit” and “liquidation” analysis.
A true measure of value creation must factor in “risk” and “return” – which accounting does not do. Thus, two critical elements are missing in the “accounting” model.
Two key concepts that are critical in the understanding of “value creation” for investors will be explored, namely: Economic Profit, and Market Value Added.
The “Accounting” Model
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Value “Indicators”Value “Indicators”
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“Base Period” CO. ‘A’ CO. ‘B’ CO. ‘C’
Revenue [Sales] $1,000 $1,000 $1,000
Net Operating Profit [NOP] - $ $100 $100 $100 - % 10% 10% 10% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Invested Capital [IC] $600 $800 $1,000Cost of Capital [CCAP] 12% 12% 12% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The “Economic Profit” model introduces the concept of Capital required to produce the “Accounting Profit” and the Cost of this capital. We begin to see that all the companies are not the same.
Value “Indicators” – Economic Profit
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“Base Period” CO. ‘A’ CO. ‘B’ CO. ‘C’
Revenue [Sales] $1,000 $1,000 $1,000
Net Operating Profit [NOP] - $ $100 $100 $100 - % 10% 10% 10%
Invested Capital [IC] $600 $800 $1,000Cost of Capital [CCAP] 12% 12% 12% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Economic ProfitNOP [from above] $100 $100 $100Capital Charge [CCAP] (72) (96) (120)Economic Profit [“EP”] $ 28 $ 4 $ (20)
Value “Indicators” – Economic Profit
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We can restate “EP” as “ROC” by changing the formula within our framework.
“Base Period” CO. ‘A’ CO. ‘B’ CO. ‘C’
Revenue [Sales] $1,000 $1,000 $1,000
Net Operating Profit [NOP] - $ $100 $100 $100 - % 10% 10% 10%
Invested Capital [IC] $600 $800 $1,000Cost of Capital [CCAP] 12% 12% 12% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Economic ProfitNet Oper. Profit [NOP] $100 $100 $100Invested Capital [IC or C] 600 800 1,000Return on Capital [“ROC”] ~17% ~12% 10%
Value “Indicators” – Economic Profit
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Growth Rates Invested Capital Intensity Value Profit Margin
These “drivers” provide a foundation for the EconomicProfit and Market Value Added metrics, and give managers a simple, yet powerful, template for value creation.These support measures are also the ones to focus onwhen evaluating business strategies and major investmentprograms.
Value “Indicators” – Financial “Drivers”
There are three major support measures for management focus.
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Growth Rates “Relationship” of Revenue, Operating Profit
and Invested Capital Growth .... CGR’s
Invested Capital Intensity How much Capital to Generate One Dollar ($1.00)
of Revenue (Sales) .... in total or incremental .... encompasses working and fixed capital
Value Profit Margin (VPM TM *) Minimum Profit Margin to Create Value for
Shareholders (Owners)
Value “Indicators” – Financial “Drivers”
* VPM is a trademark of Vanguard Partners
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What is it? A “minimum” profit margin ... in essence, a beginning point
for value creation A pre and/or post tax financial performance benchmark
Why use it? Allows for profitability comparisons for businesses of
different size Simple to calculate and easy to communicate ... especially to
operating managers Provides managers with a threshold ... generating a positive
“spread” creates shareholder value Effective for planning ... strategies, acquisitions, investments ...And, provides an “earnings” measure linked to value.
Value “Indicators” – Financial “Drivers”Value Profit Margin is a very useful support measure.
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How is VPM calculated ? Pre Tax Basis -- multiply ‘ICI’ by ‘CCAP’ ...
then, divide by ‘one minus the effective tax rate’
After Tax Basis -- multiply ‘ICI’ by ‘CCAP’
How is VPM calculated ? Pre Tax Basis -- multiply ‘ICI’ by ‘CCAP’ ...
then, divide by ‘one minus the effective tax rate’
After Tax Basis -- multiply ‘ICI’ by ‘CCAP’
Example -- assume Co. ‘A’:
Revenue (Sales) = $1,000, IC = $600 [ICI = $.60] CCAP = 12%, and the effective tax rate = 30%
“VPM” -- Pre Tax Basis.60 x 12% = 7.2% / 70% = 10.3%
“VPM” -- After Tax Basis.60 x 12% = 7.2% ... vs. Actual NOP = 10% (Example)
Value “Indicators” – Financial “Drivers”
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Value “Analysis”Value “Analysis”
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• Economic Profit (‘EP’) translates into Market Value Added (‘MVA’) – closely related to Shareholder Value Creation – through a future financial forecast or outlook. Business strategy should “drive” the assumptions and rationale of a future outlook.
• Assume the following assumptions for the ‘A’, ‘B’, ‘C’ Example:
1. All companies maintain same invested capital to revenue ratio.
2. All companies continue to earn same profit margin on revenue.
3. All companies increase revenue by 10% per year … for 4 years.
The implications of these assumptions and the future outlook’s “value” is dramatic, depending on whether a business is an ‘A’, ‘B’ or ‘C’.
Value “Analysis” – Market Value Added
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Company ‘A’Invest capital in growth-oriented
strategies / programs ... with high return potential “Go for Growth” -- instill growth
as a driving force throughout the organization
Emphasize staying close to existing margins and capital intensity, with room for some deterioration if the opportunity is significant
... Growth adds value -- “Bigger is Better” !
Value “Analysis” – the “Magnifier”
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% Growth (Sales)
$ “MVA”(Discounted)
20%10% 15%5%
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
ILLUSTRATION
For Co. “A” -- More growth adds more value !
$256$301
$351
$408
$233
0%
+10%
+MVA %.... (Cumul.) +29%
+51%
+75%
Value “Analysis” – the “Magnifier”
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Company ‘B’Earn more operating profit
with the same capital Squeeze additional profit
from existing capital base
.... Selective pricing and/or cost cutting
Emphasize margin improvement
... Growth is secondary -- adds minimal value !
Value “Analysis” – the “Magnifier”
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Company ‘C’
Reduce the level of capital employed Streamline / re-engineer / re-structure
operations Validate capital invested in major
lines of business
... Growth ‘destroys’ value !
Value “Analysis” – the “Magnifier”
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For Co. “C” -- More growth destroys more value !
% Growth
$ Value - “MVA” (Discounted)
20%
10%
15%
5%
-$300
-$225
-$ 75
-$150
0
ILLUSTRATION
- Sales / Earnings
-$183-$215
-$251-$291
-$167
-10%-29%
-51%-75%
Value “Analysis” – the “Magnifier”
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Allocating Resources – Based on “Value Creation”
Allocating Resources – Based on “Value Creation”
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The “value-based” approach takes corporate and business unit evaluations to a new level. Assume a hypothetical company with four business units.
“Market” Values$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
-0-
BU #1 BU #2 BU #3 BU #4 Total Co.
‘Total’ Value
‘Strategy’ Value
‘No Growth’ Value
$15$5$20
$5
$15
$20
$5$10$15
$10
$15$5
$35
$35
$70
Per
Sha
re V
alu
es
Allocating Resources based on “Value”
“Strategy” Values can be determined for the Business Units, and should be the basis for making investment decisions.
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Market Value / Cash Flow$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
-0-
BU #1BU #2 BU #3 BU #4Total Co.
$15$5$20
$5
$15
$20
$5$10$15
$10
$15$5
$35
$35
$70
Per
Sha
re V
alu
es
Negative Cash Flow Positive Cash Flow
Allocating Resources based on “Value”
When “market values” and “cash flows” are integrated, corporate and business unit analysis is completed.
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• Growth “magnifies” value creation (positively or negatively) depending on whether economic returns are above or below the cost of capital.
• Economic Profit translates into Market Value Added through a future outlook, providing a mechanism for valuing strategy and allocating resources.
• The “economic” profit approach and supporting financial “drivers” provide a template to assess progress toward shareholder value goals.
• Operating managers can “drive” value creation by focusing on three key financial indicators:
The relationship of revenue, profit and invested capital growth The amount of capital needed to generate one dollar of revenue Margins (before and/or after tax) above a minimum level required for
value enhancement.
• “Economic” Profit incorporates income statement performance, balance sheet investments and a capital cost, making it more robust than “Accounting” Profit.
Summary: The “Essence” of VBF
• Resource allocation decisions should be based on “strategy value”.