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dD�o `�i*@?c k@h*c E2fff�� �� B��_i |L |�i Nti Lu ��@�? �}}hi}@|i_ �W��#@|@c� 6i_ih@* +itih�i �L@h_c 6�?@?Ui @?_ ,UL?L4�Ut #�tU�tt�L? 5i�h�itc a�?ic 2fff��D�
ee
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Agricultural machinery,except tractors
Time
Log
of P
rice
Inde
xes
(194
7=0)
1983
NIPA Q−adj (Gordon) Q−adj (Forecast)± 2 S.E.
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000−3
−2
−1
0
1
2
3Aircraft
Time
Log
of P
rice
Inde
xes
(194
7=0)
1983
NIPA Q−adj (Gordon) Q−adj (Forecast)± 2 S.E.
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000−0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5Autos
Time
Log
of P
rice
Inde
xes
(194
7=0)
1983
NIPA Q−adj (Gordon) Q−adj (Forecast)± 2 S.E.
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000−3
−2.5
−2
−1.5
−1
−0.5
0
0.5
1Communication equipment
Time
Log
of P
rice
Inde
xes
(194
7=0)
1983
NIPA Q−adj (Gordon) Q−adj (Forecast)± 2 S.E.
Figure 2: Price Forecasts
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Construction machinery,except tractors
Time
Log
of P
rice
Inde
xes
(194
7=0)
1983
NIPA Q−adj (Gordon) Q−adj (Forecast)± 2 S.E.
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000−0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5Electrical equipment
Time
Log
of P
rice
Inde
xes
(194
7=0)
1983
NIPA Q−adj (Gordon) Q−adj (Forecast)± 2 S.E.
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000−1
−0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3Engines and turbines
Time
Log
of P
rice
Inde
xes
(194
7=0)
1983
NIPA Q−adj (Gordon) Q−adj (Forecast)± 2 S.E.
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000−0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Electrical transmission, distributionand industrial apparatus
Time
Log
of P
rice
Inde
xes
(194
7=0)
1983
NIPA Q−adj (Gordon) Q−adj (Forecast)± 2 S.E.
Figure 3: Price Forecasts
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000−0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2Fabricated metal products
Time
Log
of P
rice
Inde
xes
(194
7=0)
1983
NIPA Q−adj (Gordon) Q−adj (Forecast)± 2 S.E.
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000−0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2Furniture and fixtures
Time
Log
of P
rice
Inde
xes
(194
7=0)
1983
NIPA Q−adj (Gordon) Q−adj (Forecast)± 2 S.E.
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000−1
−0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3General industrial equipment
Time
Log
of P
rice
Inde
xes
(194
7=0)
1983
NIPA Q−adj (Gordon) Q−adj (Forecast)± 2 S.E.
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000−2
−1.5
−1
−0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2Instruments and photocopies
Time
Log
of P
rice
Inde
xes
(194
7=0)
1983
NIPA Q−adj (Gordon) Q−adj (Forecast)± 2 S.E.
Figure 4: Price Forecasts
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5Mining and oilfield machinery
Time
Log
of P
rice
Inde
xes
(194
7=0)
1983
NIPA Q−adj (Gordon) Q−adj (Forecast)± 2 S.E.
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000−1
−0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3Metalworking machinery
Time
Log
of P
rice
Inde
xes
(194
7=0)
1983
NIPA Q−adj (Gordon) Q−adj (Forecast)± 2 S.E.
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000−0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5Other
Time
Log
of P
rice
Inde
xes
(194
7=0)
1983
NIPA Q−adj (Gordon) Q−adj (Forecast)± 2 S.E.
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5Railroad equipment
Time
Log
of P
rice
Inde
xes
(194
7=0)
1983
NIPA Q−adj (Gordon) Q−adj (Forecast)± 2 S.E.
Figure 5: Price Forecasts
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000−1
−0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5Service industry machinery
Time
Log
of P
rice
Inde
xes
(194
7=0)
1983
NIPA Q−adj (Gordon) Q−adj (Forecast)± 2 S.E.
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000−1
−0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3Ships and boats
Time
Log
of P
rice
Inde
xes
(194
7=0)
1983
NIPA Q−adj (Gordon) Q−adj (Forecast)± 2 S.E.
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000−1
−0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3Special industry machinery
Time
Log
of P
rice
Inde
xes
(194
7=0)
1983
NIPA Q−adj (Gordon) Q−adj (Forecast)± 2 S.E.
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5Tractors
Time
Log
of P
rice
Inde
xes
(194
7=0)
1983
NIPA Q−adj (Gordon) Q−adj (Forecast)± 2 S.E.
Figure 6: Price Forecasts
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000−0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2Trucks, buses, and truck trailers
Time
Log
of P
rice
Inde
xes
(194
7=0)
1983
NIPA Q−adj (Gordon) Q−adj (Forecast)± 2 S.E.
Figure 7: Price Forecasts
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.10
0.11
0.12
0.13
0.14
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00
Hulten’s Index Returns to Education
Hul
ten’
s In
dex
Returns to E
ducation
Figure 15: Technological Gap and the Returns to Education
Figure 16: “Equilibrium” growth accounting estimates of technical changeembodied in capital, in labor and disembodied
TABLE 1 (part 1 of 3) - Regression Results for the 21 Quality-adjusted Price Indexes
Explanatory Variables (1) Agric (2) Aircrafts (3) Auto (4) Comm (5) Constr (6) Electr (7) Engines (8) ETDIA
NIPA Official Price (∗) 1.71 2.37 0.84 1.68 0.95 1.23 1.48 1.40
(14.16) (8.40) (4.99) (10.33) (25.56) (7.65) (9.86) (13.39)
NIPA Official Price−1 (∗) - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
NIPA Official Price−2 (∗) -0.69 - - - - -0.49 - -
(-5.18) - - - - (-2.53) - -
NIPA Official Price−3 (∗) - - 0.42 - - - - -
- - (2.16) - - - - -
GDP Growth - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
GDP Growth−1 - - - 0.01 -0.01 - - -
- - - (1.57) (-2.82) - - -
GDP Growth−2 - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
Constant -3.40 -3.89 -4.70 -5.47 -2.55 -2.71 -3.26 -4.23
(-62.78) (-5.84) (-8.51) (-9.19) (-30.97) (-16.00) (-9.77) (-13.62)
Time Trend*100 - -14.97 -0.85 -6.65 -1.91 - -6.06 -3.30
- (-11.91) (-3.39) (-15.82) (-9.86) - (-7.83) (-9.42)
Adjusted R2 0.99 0.89 0.79 0.91 0.99 0.95 0.77 0.87
Note: t-statistics are in parethesis, (∗) denotes logs, there are 37 observations for each estimated
equation and all price indexes are in logs.
TABLE 1 (part 2 of 3) - Regression Results for the 21 Quality-adjusted Price Indexes
Explanatory Variables (9) FMP (10) Furniture (11) GIE (12) Ins-Pho (13) Mine (14) MWM (15) Other Eq (16) Rail
NIPA Official Price (∗) 1.23 0.60 0.76 -0.57 0.73 0.72 1.10 0.86
(15.07) (3.02) (13.60) (-1.14) (18.74) (3.14) (10.28) (29.33)
NIPA Official Price−1 (∗) - 0.42 - - - 0.72 - -
- (2.07) - - - (1.76) - -
NIPA Official Price−2 (∗) - - - 1.36 - -0.74 - -
- - - (2.43) - (-3.13) - -
NIPA Official Price−3 (∗) - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -
GDP Growth - -0.01 -0.01 - - - - -
- (-2.91) (-2.00) - - - - -
GDP Growth−1 -0.01 - -0.01 - -0.01 - - -
(-1.81) - (-3.65) - (-2.12) - - -
GDP Growth−2 - - - - - -0.01 - -
- - - - - (-3.44) - -
Constant -3.40 -3.25 -2.22 -1.70 -2.10 -2.27 -3.67 -2.57
(-15.55) (-25.20) (-16.25) (-1.24) (-23.70) (-45.13) (-11.06) (-36.65)
Time Trend*100 -3.13 -0.91 -1.08 -4.57 -0.85 - -1.37 -0.82
(-8.84) (-5.16) (-4.00) (-3.42) (-4.07) - (-4.47) (-5.65)
Adjusted R2 0.93 0.99 0.98 0.77 0.98 0.99 0.86 0.99
TABLE 1 (part 3 of 3) - Regression Results for the 21 Quality-adjusted Price Indexes
Explanatory Variables (17) Serv (18) Ships (19) Spec (20) Tract (21) Trucks
NIPA Official Price (∗) 1.22 1.51 0.99 1.25 1.15
(22.30) (8.48) (18.45) (6.86) (18.21)
NIPA Official Price−1 (∗) - 0.55 - - -
- (1.83) - - -
NIPA Official Price−2 (∗) - -0.88 - -0.55 -
- (-4.26) - (-2.70) -
NIPA Official Price−3 (∗) - 0.01 - - -
- (2.97) - - -
GDP Growth - - - - -
- - - - -
GDP Growth−1 - - - 0.01 -
- - - (2.66) -
GDP Growth−2 - - - - -
- - - - -
Constant -3.16 -3.24 -2.01 -2.29 -2.99
(-18.96) (-34.54) (-17.83) (-28.89) (-17.82)
Time Trend*100 -4.64 -3.16 -4.58 - -3.65
(-29.06) (-18.63) (-16.52) - (-14.75)
Adjusted R2 0.96 0.99 0.91 0.98 0.91
Note: t-statistics are in parethesis, (∗) denotes logs, there are 37 observations for each estimated equation
and all price indexes are in logs.
Table 2 – Constant-Quality Capital Growth (1948-2000)
48-00 47-60 61-70 71-80 81-90 91-00
∆k∗e 0.088 0.091 0.089 0.087 0.075 0.100
∆ke 0.058 0.056 0.059 0.061 0.046 0.068
∆k∗ipes 0.163 0.137 0.165 0.179 0.172 0.163
∆kipes 0.123 0.086 0.132 0.137 0.132 0.133
Table 3– Annual Rates of Embodied Technical Change by Asset Type
48-00 48-60 61-70 71-80 81-90 91-00
Equipment and Software .040 .023 .036 .036 .046 .063
Information Processing Equipment and Software .074 .043 .063 .065 .082 .078
Computers and Peripheral equipment .235(∗) - .266 .265 .182 .225
Prepackaged Software .153(∗) - .157 .181 .158 .099
Custom Software .038(∗) - .040 .044 .036 .026
Own Account Software .002(∗) - .005 .003 .001 .003
Communication equipment .087 .096 .051 .073 .085 .129
Instruments and Photocopies .056 .017 .034 .135 .050 .054
Office and Accounting equipment .024 .000 .021 .053 .031 .024
Industrial Equipment .030 .031 .017 .028 .039 .033
Fabricated Metal Products .027 .028 .031 .012 .044 .047
Engines and Turbines .032 .044 .037 .017 .034 .059
Metalworking Machinery .009 .005 .011 .009 .008 .016
Special Industry Machinery, n.e.c. .038 .032 .042 .027 .036 .052
General Industrial equipment .016 .004 .018 .022 .013 .026
Electrical Transm., Distr. and Industr. .026 .018 .041 .025 .007 .044
Transportation Equipment .030 .044 .020 .022 .035 .026
Trucks, Buses, and Truck Trailers .033 .030 .045 .015 .033 .040
Autos .025 .029 .032 .030 .006 .026
Aircraft .079 .081 .084 .035 .091 .106
Ships and Boats .021 .015 .026 .003 .030 .034
Railroad Equipment .010 .013 .023 .006 .031 .023
Other Equipment .019 .018 .005 .022 .028 .023
Furniture and Fixtures .011 .009 .014 .006 .008 .020
Tractors .003 .022 .009 .001 .020 .018
Agricultural Machinery .001 .005 .007 .030 .016 .009
Construction Machinery .013 .005 .016 .005 .016 .026
Mining and Oilfield Machinery .014 .005 .016 .005 .024 .021
Service Industry Machinery .049 .053 .060 .036 .046 .051
Electrical Equipment, n.e.c. .020 .014 .027 .011 .024 .030
Other Equipment .024 .034 .020 .021 .019 .023
Note: (∗) denotes the period 1960-2000. Each entry is the average over the period. Rates of technical
change embodied in asset j is computed as the inverse of the growth rate of the quality-adjusted price of
asset j relative to the price of consumption.
Table 4: Statistical growth accounting (1948-1999)
Output unadjusted for quality Output adjusted for quality
48-99 48-60 61-70 71-80 81-90 91-99 48-99 48-60 61-70 71-80 81-90 91-99
GDP growth 3.718 3.675 4.338 3.639 3.394 3.532 4.014 3.687 4.821 3.893 3.599 4.148
Contribution of Capital (k) .536 .411 .487 .597 .602 .642 .497 .410 .438 .558 .568 .547
Quantity of Capital (k) .325 .229 .306 .428 .361 .332 .301 .228 .275 .400 .341 .283
Quantity of IT Capital (kipes) .055 .026 .039 .049 .060 .049 .051 .026 .035 .046 .057 .042
Quantity of Other Capital (kother) .270 .203 .267 .379 .301 .283 .250 .202 .240 .354 .284 .241
Quality of Capital (Q) .211 .182 .181 .169 .241 .310 .196 .181 .163 .158 .227 .294
Quality of IT Capital (Qipes) .060 .014 .027 .062 .090 .124 .056 .014 .024 .058 .085 .118
Quality of Other Capital (Qother) .151 .168 .154 .107 .151 .186 .140 .167 .139 .10 .142 .176
Contribution of Labor (l) .323 .200 .290 .342 .413 .419 .299 .200 .261 .320 .389 .397
Quantity of Labor (n) .219 .029 .158 .186 .351 .345 .203 .029 .142 .174 .331 .327
Quality of Labor (h) .104 .171 .132 .156 .062 .074 .096 .170 .119 .146 .058 .070
Aggregate TFP (z) .141 .389 .224 .061 -.015 -.061 .204 .390 .301 .122 0.04 .056
Note: The contribution of each component is defined as the ratio between the share-weighted real growth rate of that component and real GDP growth.
The aggregate share of labor (capital) is constant at .64 (.36) over the sample period. To compute the contribution of IT goods we used the Tornquist
decomposition in equation (??).
Table 5: Cycle and Trend in the Recent Productivity Surge
Total Cycle Trend
λ=6.25 λ=100 λ=6.25 λ=100Total 1.00 .315 .889 .685 .111
Capital Deepening .423 .170 .433 .253 -.100
Quantity of Capital -.238 .077 .125 -.315 -.363
IT Capital -.040 .051 .136 -.090 -.175
Other Capital -.199 .026 -.009 -.225 -.188
Quality of Capital .661 .093 .308 .568 .353
IT Capital .286 .058 .204 .228 .082
Other Capital .375 .035 .104 .340 .271
Labor Quality -.297 -.124 -.294 -.173 -.003
Aggregate TFP .875 .270 .750 .605 .125
Note: The labor productivity acceleration is .087, computed comparing average annual productivity
growth in 1995-1999 to 1973-1995. The cyclical component is extracted from each series through the
Hodrick-Prescott filter. The data have annual frequency, so both a value of λ=100 and a value of λ=6.25are used (see the main text for an explanation). The contribution of the various components reported
in each row is defined as the ratio between the share-weighted real growth rate of that component and
real GDP growth (quality-adjusted). The aggregate share of labor (capital) is constant at .64 (.36) over the
sample period. To compute the contribution of IT goods we used the Tornquist decomposition in equation
(10).
Table 6 - Embodied Technical Change by Industry
Industry 48-99 48-60 61-70 71-80 81-90 91-99
ETC Share ETC Share ETC Share ETC Share ETC Share ETC Share
1 Agriculture 0.011 0.080 0.008 0.124 0.011 0.087 -0.008 0.084 0.023 0.044 0.024 0.043
2 Extractive 0.024 0.033 0.009 0.030 0.024 0.032 0.015 0.039 0.035 0.040 0.044 0.022
3 Construction 0.022 0.037 0.011 0.052 0.024 0.047 0.010 0.037 0.027 0.020 0.045 0.024
4 Durable Manufacturing 0.035 0.139 0.013 0.148 0.032 0.155 0.039 0.145 0.041 0.129 0.057 0.115
5 Nondurable Manufacturing 0.039 0.119 0.024 0.129 0.039 0.127 0.040 0.121 0.041 0.107 0.056 0.108
6 Transport and Utilities 0.040 0.156 0.023 0.184 0.049 0.162 0.022 0.155 0.046 0.143 0.067 0.123
7 Communications 0.077 0.079 0.076 0.062 0.052 0.086 0.073 0.086 0.081 0.082 0.109 0.085
8 Wholesale Trade 0.055 0.058 0.026 0.035 0.048 0.045 0.060 0.054 0.064 0.080 0.088 0.086
9 Retail Trade 0.043 0.057 0.033 0.067 0.043 0.056 0.038 0.050 0.049 0.056 0.059 0.054
10 FIRE 0.056 0.131 0.034 0.088 0.048 0.097 0.070 0.117 0.058 0.177 0.080 0.195
11 Other Services 0.050 0.111 0.029 0.081 0.046 0.106 0.053 0.111 0.062 0.121 0.068 0.145
Table 7 - Hulten’s Technological Gap by Industry
Industry 48-99 48-60 61-70 71-80 81-90 91-99
ETC ETC ETC ETC ETC ETC
1 Agriculture 0.051 0.015 0.067 -0.008 0.064 0.134
2 Extractive 0.118 0.027 0.097 0.075 0.142 0.295
3 Construction 0.094 0.031 0.098 0.064 0.103 0.203
4 Durable Manufacturing 0.177 0.042 0.129 0.173 0.245 0.355
5 Nondurable Manufacturing 0.228 0.088 0.219 0.240 0.272 0.379
6 Transport and Utilities 0.283 0.056 0.320 0.280 0.301 0.556
7 Communications 0.410 0.240 0.319 0.274 0.568 0.734
8 Wholesale Trade 0.183 0.069 0.154 0.188 0.230 0.320
9 Retail Trade 0.185 0.092 0.206 0.177 0.213 0.273
10 FIRE 0.200 0.084 0.179 0.242 0.233 0.309
11 Other Services 0.182 0.059 0.161 0.211 0.247 0.280
TABLE 8: Sources of Growth at the Industry Level (1977-99)
Annual average share-weighted growth rate (%) 1977-99 1977-89 1990-99
Source
Industry: Durable Goods Manufacturing
Value-Added 2.544 2.602 2.639
Labor -0.127 -0.105 0.029
Capital
Quantity of Capital 0.656 0.703 0.546
Quality of Capital 0.949 0.780 1.070
TFP 1.066 1.224 0.994
Industry: Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
Value-Added -0.308 -0.267 0.043
Labor -0.183 -0.027 -0.362
Capital
Quantity of Capital 0.976 0.972 0.858
Quality of Capital 1.395 1.159 1.535
TFP -2.496 -2.370 -1.989
Industry: Transportation and Utilities
Value-Added 2.088 1.207 3.101
Labor 0.834 0.795 0.821
Capital
Quantity of Capital 1.131 1.294 0.865
Quality of Capital 1.566 1.301 1.760
TFP -1.444 -2.183 -0.345
Industry: Communications
Value-Added 4.837 4.355 4.855
Labor 0.448 0.171 0.649
Capital
Quantity of Capital 2.480 2.643 2.063
Quality of Capital 3.641 3.013 4.101
TFP -1.732 -1.472 -1.958
Annual average share-weighted growth rate (%) 1977-99 1977-89 1990-99
Source
Industry: Wholesale Trade
Value-Added 5.269 4.775 6.027
Labor 0.951 1.229 0.639
Capital
Quantity of Capital 2.366 2.883 1.593
Quality of Capital 2.451 2.144 2.651
TFP -0.498 -1.481 1.144
Industry: Retail Trade
Value-Added 3.688 3.310 4.237
Labor 1.412 1.683 1.030
Capital
Quantity of Capital 1.421 1.517 1.164
Quality of Capital 1.455 1.383 1.397
TFP -0.601 -1.274 0.646
Industry: FIRE
Value-Added 1.344 -2.550 5.307
Labor 0.519 0.719 0.234
Capital
Quantity of Capital 3.471 4.205 2.166
Quality of Capital 3.420 3.402 3.114
TFP -6.067 -10.876 -0.207
Industry: Other Services
Value-Added 3.322 4.115 2.082
Labor 2.944 3.120 2.421
Capital
Quantity of Capital 1.235 1.210 1.165
Quality of Capital 1.511 1.347 1.568
TFP -2.368 -1.562 -3.074