© T. M. Whitmore TODAY Population Geography of LA Growth Fertility Mortality Age structure...

© T. M. Whitmore

TODAY

•Population Geography of LAGrowthFertilityMortalityAge structure

•Urbanization in LASpatial patternsCauses & consequences

© T. M. Whitmore

Population (2007 estimates)•Latin America & Caribbean ~ 569 m

(8.7% of global total)

•USA ~ 302 m (4.6 % of global total)

•World ~ 6,525 m

•Caribbean ~ 40 m

•Central America (with Mexico) ~ 148 m

•Mexico ~ 106.5 m

•South America (with Brazil ~ 381 m)

•Brazil ~ 189 m

•Mexico + Brazil ~ 295.5 m (> ½ of LA; ~ USA)

© T. M. Whitmore

Demography: Growth related

•Rate of Natural Increase (RNI)Meaning of “crude” in demographyCrude Birth Rate (CBR): live

births/1000 pop in a given yearCrude Death Rate (CDR):

deaths/1000 pop in a given yearCBR - CDR = RNI

typically given as %/yrassumes no net migration in a given year

© T. M. Whitmore

Rate of Natural Increase (RNI)/yr

•Latin America ~ 1.5%/yr

•USA ~ 0.6%/yr

•World ~ 1.2%/yr

•More Developed World ~ 0.1%/yr

•Lesser developed world ~ 1.5% -

1.8%/yr

•Historical trends in LA: 1950s - 1980s

Declining but less rapidly now

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Population projections for 2025

•Latin America 700 m

•USA 350 m

•World 7490 m

•Caribbean 48 m

•Mexico 129 m

•South America 465 m

•Brazil 229 m

•Mexico + Brazil 358 m (~ = USA)

© T. M. Whitmore

Rate of Natural Increase II• Caribbean ~ 1.1%/yr• Central America (including Mexico) ~ 1.8%• Mexico ~ 1.7 %/yr• South America (including Brazil) ~ 1.5%/yr

Brazil ~ 1.4%/yr• Notable extremes

HIGH (~ 2.5%/yr): Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Haiti Bolivia

LOW (~ 1%/yr or less): Costa Rica Cuba, Puerto Rico Uruguay, Chile, Argentina

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Total Fertility Rate (TFR)•= Average total number of births to a

woman in her lifetime (superior to CBR)

•~ 2.1 => parents only replacing themselves (called replacement level fertility)need the extra 0.1 due to childhood

deaths

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Fertility (TFR)•Latin America ~ 2.5•USA ~ 2.1•World ~ 2.7•More Developed World ~ 1.6•Lesser developed world ~ 2.9 - 3.3 •Caribbean ~ 2.5•Central America (including Mexico) ~

2.7•Mexico ~ 2.4•South America (including Brazil) ~

2.4•Brazil ~ 2.3

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Fertility II•Notable extremes

HIGH (TFR > 3)Guatemala (> 4), Honduras, Nicaragua

Haiti (>4.5)Bolivia, Ecuador

LOW (< 2.5)Costa Rica, MexicoCuba, Puerto RicoUruguay, Brazil, Argentina

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Death related (mortality)• Mortality

Measured by “life expectancy at birth” (Eo)

= AVERAGE projected span of life at the date for a pop

• Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)# deaths of infants (< 1yr)/1000 live

births in a given yr

© T. M. Whitmore

Life expectancy at birth (Eo) • Latin America ~ 73 yrs• USA ~ 78• World ~ 68• More Developed World ~ 77• Lesser developed world ~ 64 – 66• Caribbean ~ 71• Central America (including Mexico) ~ 74• Mexico ~ 75• South America (including Brazil) ~ 72• Brazil ~ 72• Individual extremes

© T. M. Whitmore

Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)• Closely correlated with Eo & very diagnostic of

social underdevelopment and poverty• Latin America ~ 24 (per 1000 live births -or

2.9%)• USA ~ 6.5• World ~ 52• More Developed World ~ 6.0• Lesser developed world ~ 57 – 61• Caribbean ~ 38• Central America (including Mexico) ~ 23• Mexico ~ 21• South America (including Brazil) ~ 24• Brazil ~ 27• Individual extremes

© T. M. Whitmore

Population age structure - youth

•Youthful pops: % of pop < 15 years old•USA 20%•World 28%

Lesser developed World 31% - 34%More Developed World ~ 17%

•Latin America 30%Central America with Mexico 33%Caribbean 28%South America 29%

•Latin American extremes & consequences

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Population age structure - aged

•Aged pops: (> 65)

•USA 12%

•World 7%Lesser developed World 5-6%

•Latin America 6%Central America with Mexico 5%Caribbean 8%South America 6%

•Latin American extremes & consequences

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Population age structures•Population pyramid

•Concept of dependency ratio(pop aged 0-15 + pop aged 65+) *100/ Pop age 15-65

•USA dependency ratio100*(20% +12%)/68% = 47

•Developing world dependency ratio100*(34% + 5%)/61% = 64

•Latin America dependency ratio100*(30% + 6%)/64% = 56

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Geographic distribution of population

•High density zones

•Low density zonesSouth America’s “empty heart”Arid zones in N Mexico & Southern

Cone

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Urbanization •Proportion of a country’s pop living in

citiesWorld = 49%Global South = 42-43%Global North = 75%USA = 79%LA = 76%

•Extremes in LA

•Large city urbanization in LA (% in cities > 1 million)

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Urbanization II•Mega-cities

Emerging Megalopolis zonesCentral MexicoSouth Brazil triangle & Río de la Plata

•Concept of primacySingle city in a country that

dominates in pop, culture, economic development, etc.

Examples: Santo DomingoGuatemala CityMexico CityLima

LA cities in World’s top 100(19 of the top 100)

Lima10 x larger

>20 x larger >20 x larger>15 x larger

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Roots of urban growth•Demographic

R—to—Urban migrationNatural increase

•EconomicIndustrializationRural stagnation

•Organizations Banks and governments

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Benefits from urban growth•Efficient provision of social services

•Cities are centers of information flow and knowledge

•Concentrated (and better educated?) labor pool

•Physical infrastructure often better

•Cities concentrate “human capital”

•Cities are a huge internal markets

•Easier linkages between industries

•Cities are often “better off”

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Urban growth I•Housing

First destination of poor migrants is the inner city slums

Elite often still in posh neighborhoods in inner city

Often close juxtaposition of rich and poor

Mexico City country club

Mexican stock exchange

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Urban growth II•Planned developments•Self-help (often squatter) “slum” hous

ingCalled: favelas (Brazil), colonias

proletarias, cuidades perdidas, etc.Seen as places of permanence25-40% of total pop in some citiesInitially settlements lack

infrastructureA main characteristic is

improvement•New purchased housing

Planned new housing area in Mexico City

Nezahualcoyotl:Planned housing area in Mexico City

Nezahualcoyotl - 3 millon people

Squatter housing in Mexico City

Mexico City inner city

300+ low income homes in Ixtapaluca, Mexico - complex has more than 10,000!

© T. M. Whitmore

Urban growth III•Subsidy and Sink effects

•Congestion

•Pollution

•Loss of urban open space

•Poor provision of basic services

•Export of problems

•Poverty generally

•Employment not always good

Mexico City on a rare clear day

More typical Mexico City day

© T. M. Whitmore TODAY Population Geography of LA Growth Fertility Mortality Age structure...

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