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Transcript of © OECD/IEA 2012 Cédric Philibert Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency Renewable...
© OECD/IEA 2012
Cédric PhilibertRenewable Energy DivisionInternational Energy Agency
Renewable energy technologies, 2030 and beyond:
And the winners are…
WBG Energy Day, 23 February 2012
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ENERGYTECHNOLOG
YPERSPECTIV
ESScenarios &Strategiesto 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Power from renewables in 2050
Renewables provide ½ to ¾ power by 2050
18%31%
Variable RE 18% to 31%
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ENERGYTECHNOLOG
YPERSPECTIV
ESScenarios &Strategiesto 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
RE generation in 2050 for key countries/regions
The mix varies according to resources
© OECD/IEA 2010 © IEA/OECD 2010
Dem
and
(MW
)
Variability is not new, but it does get bigger with variable renewables (wind power, solar PV)
Source: Western Wind and Solar Integration Study, GE Energy for NREL (2010)
Demand
Demand net of wind and solar
Emerging challenges: grid integration
© OECD/IEA 2012
© OECD/IEA 2010 © IEA/OECD 2010
Integration of variable renewable power
[Source: IEA 2011 – Harnessing Variable REnewable power]
Depends on: Nature of variable renewables (techno-
spread, time correlations; geo-spread) Flexibility of the whole power system
Four sources of flexibility: Dispatchable
generation Storage Demand-side
response Interconnections
IEA Flexibility ASsessment Tool
© OECD/IEA 2012 © OECD/IEA 2012
© OECD/IEA 2010
Load-matching rather than base-load
Source: Mills and Cheng, 2011b
Source: M
ills and Cheng, 2011
© OECD/IEA 2010
Solar energy: testing the limits A possible vision, under severe climate constraints, if
other low-carbon energy options are not available... Where are the technical limits to solar energy?
Many electricity technologies converging towards USD100/MWh (incl. CO2) around 2030 [Roadmaps, ETP]
Cost no longer main limit, but footprint, variability and convenience issues
Not necessarily least cost, but affordable options: Sunny and dry climates: CSP dominates Sunny and wet climates: PV backed by hydro Temperate climates: wind power and PV backed by
hydro/pumped-hydro (+ gas-fired balancing plants)Assuming efficiency improvements and further electrification
of buildings, industry and transport:Under best conditions, solar energy (mostly electricity) could
become a key contributor to the global energy mixSome fossil fuels still needed in transport, industry, electricity
© O
ECD
/IEA
, 201
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© OECD/IEA 2010 © IEA/OECD 2010
Storage needs for large-scale variable RE
Hourly/daily storage for PV and wind For rare long periods without wind or sun,
better use gas-fired balancing plants Inter-seasonal storage in some cases
© OECD/IEA 2012
© OECD/IEA 2010
Solar thermal electricity (CSP)
Key value of STE/CSP is in thermal storage to generate electricity when needed and match demand effective and cheaper than electrical storage Sensible heat in molten salts Flexible CSP plants allow more wind and PV on the grid!
Source: Torresol Energy
© OECD/IEA 2012
© OECD/IEA 2010 © IEA/OECD 2010
Storage solutions for large-scale variable RE Small or large, batteries are expensive G2V creates new opportunities for load
management. V2G to shave peaks?V2G shortens battery lifetime and has a (high) cost
Pumped-hydro plants the reference solution140 GW in service, 50 GW in developmentOther options mostly for shorter time-scalesDaily/weekly storage does not require large areas
© OECD/IEA, 2012Source: Inage, 2009.
© OECD/IEA 2010 © IEA/OECD 2010
New options for pumped-hydro plants New and refurbished hydro power plants Plants can be developed independent of rivers
Using the sea as lower reservoir (Okinawa-style)Using natural declivity
Investment costs range: USD 500 to 2000/kWLCOE (incl. losses, 10% discount): $110/MWh-shifted
No natural slope? Still feasible…On flat lands with fresh water, or off shore
© OECD/IEA 2012
© OECD/IEA 2010 © IEA/OECD 2010
In sum… Solar, Wind and Water - the largest potentials
Plus: potential of solar for energy access for all… High penetration of variable renewables needs
significant (pumped-hydro) storage capacities…With load-management, interconnections, smart
grids, flexible hydro, CSP and fossil plantsCosts of inter-seasonal storage the true limit?
Renewable resources and technologies are there for 30% final energy demand by 2030Challenges are economic, financial, administrative,
public acceptance, policy commitments…
© OECD/IEA 2012
© OECD/IEA 2010 © IEA/OECD 2010
Hydrogen, an option for inter-seasonal storage? H2 very small, not easy to retain! Much easier to use in blend with natural gas Variable RE + electrolysis + methanation?
Economics of variable electrolysis at ambient T°?Economics of methanation?Overall efficiency – between 17% today and 33%
with more efficient technologies? Concentrating sunlight to high temperatures
offers better options to produce hydrogenReform natural gas, gasify biomass, reduce metalsSolid storage, blend in natural or biogas, liquids…
© OECD/IEA 2012