© OECD/IEA - 2006 2 0 0 6 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Dolf Gielen...

© OECD/IEA - 2006

2 0 0 6

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &Strategies

to 2050

Dolf GielenSenior Energy Analyst

International Energy Agency Energy & Materials Efficiency Conference, Seoul, September 21-22, 2006

Energy Technology PerspectivesScenarios and Strategies to 2050

2 0 0 6

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

Scenarios &Strategies

to 2050

This Presentation

ETP background Results from the Scenario Analysis Policy Consequences Next Steps

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Energy Technology PerspectivesPresents

ETP 2006 provides part of IEA’s “advice on scenarios and strategies” at the G8 summit in St. Petersburg

Status and perspectives for key energy technologies in: Power Generation Transport Buildings and Appliances Industry

Global scenarios to illustrate potentials for different technologies under accelerated policies

Strategies for helping key technologies make a difference


Key Findings Current policies will not bring us on a path

towards a sustainable energy futureA more sustainable energy future is possible with

a portfolio of clean and efficient technologiesUsing technologies that have an additional cost of

less than 25 $/tonne CO2 avoided: Global CO2 emissions can be returned to today's level by 2050 Expected growth in both oil and electricity demand can be

halved

Requires urgent action to promote, develop and deploy a full mix of energy technologies

Collaboration between developing and developed nations will be essential


Results from the Scenario Analysis


Scenario AnalysisScenarios analysed:

Baseline Scenario Accelerated Technology Scenarios (ACT) TECH Plus scenario

ACT and TECH Plus scenarios: Analyse the impact from R&D, Demonstration

and Deployment measures Incentives equivalent to 25 $/tonne CO2 for low-

carbon technologies implemented world-wide from 2030 and on

Individual scenarios differ in terms of assumptions for key technology areas


Technology Assumptions

Scenario Renewables Nuclear CCS H2 fuel cells Advanced biofuels

End-use efficiency

ACT Map Relatively optimistic across all technology areas2.0 % p.a.

global improvement

ACT Low Renewables

Slower cost reductions

ACTLow Nuclear

Lower public acceptance

ACTNo CCS

No CCS

ACTLow Efficiency

1.7 % p.a. global

improvement

TECH Plus Stronger cost reductions

Stronger cost reductions & technology

improvements

Break-through for

FC

Stronger cost reductions &

improved feedstock availability


TECH Plus: More optimistic on progress for certain key technologies

Mt CO2

Global CO2 Emissions 2003-2050Baseline, ACT and TECH plus Scenarios

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

2003 Baseline2030

Baseline2050

Map No CCS LowEfficiency

TECH Plus2050

Other

Buildings

Transport

Industry

Transformation

PowerGeneration

ACT Scenarios 2050

-16%

+137%

+6%+21%

+27%


Emission Reduction by Technology AreaACT Map Scenario

Improved energy efficiency most important contributor to reduced emissions

Other renewables 6%

Biomass 2%

Fossil fuel gen eff 1%

Nuclear 6%

Coal to gas 5%

Hydro 2%

CCS 12%

Fuel mix in building 5% and industry 2%

Power Gen34%

End-use efficiency

45%

Biofuels in transport 6%

CCS in fuel transformation 3%

CCS in industry 5%

MAP Scenario – 205032 Gt CO2 Reduction

Materials & products efficiency 1% Energy & feedstock efficiency 6%

Cogeneration & steam 2% Pocess innovation 1%

Industry 10%

Appliances 7.5%

Water heat. cooking 1%

Space heating 3%

Lighting, misc. 3.5%Air conditioning 3%

Buildings 18%

Fuel economy in transport 17%

Transport 17%


Energy Efficiency - A top Priority

Improved energy efficiency saves about 15 Gt CO2 by 2050 - equivalent to 60% of current emissions

Improved efficiency halves expected growth in electricity demand and reduces the need for generation capacity by a third

In a scenario with less progress in efficiency, CO2 emissions increase more than 20%

Lower efficiency progress increases supply-side investments and costs of reducing CO2 emissionsINTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE


Global Electricity Generation by Fuel

ACT Scenarios: Important role for CCS and strong growth in the shares for renewables and nuclear

39%46%

12% 14% 13% 16%5%

14% 15% 16%

14%

3%

2%2% 2%

2%2%

19%

27%

22%25% 26%

27% 18%

6%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2003 Baseline 2050 ACT Map ACT Low Nuclear

ACT LowRenewables

ACT No CCS TECH Plus 2050

Shar

es

Coal Coal-CCS Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass Other renewables

16%

7%

18%9%

17%

21%

15% 15%

14%

15%

6%9%

14%

2%

4% 4%3%

5% 6%

15% 16%9%

17% 19%

16%

17%

2%


Electricity GenerationCO2 Capture and Storage a Key Option

CCS is crucial for the role coal can play in a CO2 constrained world – without CCS coal-fired generation in 2050 drops below today’s level

By 2050 more than 5 000 TWh electricity globally can be produced by coal-plants equipped with CCS

There is an urgent need for more R&D and for full-scale CCS demonstration plants

Generation from renewables can quadruple by 2050

Nuclear can gain a much more important role in countries where it is acceptable



CCS also in Industry and for Other Parts of the Energy Supply

CoalBlast furnaces

4%ProcessCement

5%

CoalPower plants

53%

BiomassPower plants/CHP

5%

Gas/oilRefineries

9%

Gas/oilIndustrial Furnaces

8%

GasGTL5%

GasGas processing

3%

GasDRI production

3%

GasAmmonia production

5%


World Liquid Fuel Supply by Scenario 2003-2050

Primary oil demand is below 2030 baseline level, and is returned to about today’s level in TECH Plus

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

2003 Baseline2030 (WEO

2005)

Baseline2050

ACT Map2050

ACT LowEfficiency

2050

TECH Plus2050

Mto

e

Hydrogen

Biofuels

Synfuels

Oil


Transport CO2 Emissions by Scenario

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

2003 Baseline 2030(WEO 2005)

Baseline 2050 ACT Map 2050 TECH Plus2050

Mt

CO

2

Hydrogen(including fuelcell efficiency)

Biofuels

Fuel efficiency

CO2emissions

2050 Baseline Emission Level

Savi

ngs

Sav

ings

Map Scenario: Two-thirds of CO2 emissions reduction is from improved fuel efficiency and one-third from biofuels


TransportKey to Reduce Growth in Oil Demand

Share of biofuels by 2050 is 13% and average 2050 vehicle is almost 50% more efficient than today

Reduce expected growth in transport oil demand by almost 50%

Transport accounts for 62% of the 42 mbpd total oil savings by 2050, which more than halves the expected growth in total oil demand

Hydrogen and Fuel Cells can reduce transport oil demand and CO2 emissions even further and can be crucial for long-term sustainability



Map: OECD Emissions 32% below 2003 level, while emissions in Developing Countries are 65% higher

CO2 EmissionsBaseline and Map Scenarios

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

2003 Baseline2050

ACT Map2050

2003 Baseline2050

ACT Map2050

Mt

CO

2

OECD Developing Countries

-32%

+65%

+70%

+250%

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

2003 Baseline2050

ACT Map2050

2003 Baseline2050

ACT Map2050

Mt

CO

2

OECD Developing Countries

-32%

+65%

+70%

+250%


Scenario Analysis Key Findings

Most energy still comes from fossil fuels in 2050

CO2 emissions can be returned towards today’s level by 2050

Growth in oil and electricity demand can be halved

Power generation can be substantially de-carbonised by 2050

De-carbonising transport will take longer but must be achieved in the second half of the century



Policy Consequences


Technology is the Key

A technology portfolio will be needed

Improving energy efficiency is top priority

CCS is key for a sustainable energy future

Other important technologies: Renewables, including biofuels Nuclear Efficient use of natural gas In time and with effort, hydrogen and fuel

cellsINTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE


Costs

25 $/tonne CO2 incentive is upper limit for the incremental costs of technologies included

Significant transitional costs for RD&D and deployment programs

Progress in efficiency and CCS key to keep mitigation costs down

Investment costs in the energy system may increase by half



Investment Needs 2005-2050This is a Big Challenge

CCS (20%)1000 500 MW coal fired power plants w CCS. 100 ammonia plants, 300 blast furnaces, 500 cement kilns w CCS

Renewables (14%) New plantations the size of South Africa200,000 3 MW wind turbines175 X growth solar-PV/CSP22X growth geothermal

Nuclear (6%) An additional 250 1 GW nuclear plants

Industrial energy efficiency (10%)

All motor systems 25% more efficientMaximum coal injection in blast furnaces

Transport efficiency (17%)

Fuel efficiency cars improves by 40% 13% biofuels worldwide20-40% hybrids

Efficiency built environment (18%)

80% fluorescent lighting and CFL Electric appliances 50% more efficient


RD&D TrendsPublic Funds in IEA Countries

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004

mil USD, 2004 prices and exchange rates

Other

Power & Storagetechnologies

Nuclear Fusion

Nuclear Fission

RenewableEnergy

Fossil Fuels

Conservation


RD&D Needs

2050 stabilisation does not require more basic R&D (but longer term emission reductions will)

More funding needed for applied R&D (technology development)

Unclear if increased funding alone will be sufficient

Unclear if reallocation of funding is neededMore international collaboration could enhance

the efficiency, e.g. extension of the IEA Implementing Agreements

Deployment cost matter, e.g.: 720 billion learning investments for renewables 2005-

2050 0.5 billion/year for CCS demonstrations


Policy Needs Urgent action is needed in public and

private sectors: Overcome barriers for adoption of energy

efficient demand-side technologies Enhance R&D Accelerate demonstration and deployment Provide clear and predictable incentives

Collaboration between developed and developing countries essential



Next Steps


Current Thinking regarding ETP2008

ETP will become a bi-annual IEA publication, complementing the World Energy Outlook

Elaboration of ACT scenario policy consequences Develop a transition plan/timeline More attention for RD&D More attention for technology learning

Special Interest Chapters Second generation biofuels CO2 Capture and Storage


Thank You

[email protected]

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