Note the specialized vocabulary! Difference between nominate and elect WHO nominates? Who decides...
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Transcript of Note the specialized vocabulary! Difference between nominate and elect WHO nominates? Who decides...
HOW DO POLITICAL PARTIES NOMINATE PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATES?
How do political parties nominate presidential candidates?
Note the specialized vocabulary! Difference between nominate and elect WHO nominates? Who decides how the nomination is going to
take place?
Answer: Parties nominate candidates AT NATIONAL PARTY CONVENTIONS in August of presidential election years.
What is a National Party Convention?
A meeting of delegates from each state Democratic or Republican party.
*SPECIALIZED VOCABULARY. Representatives to a party convention are called DELEGATES.
Conventions are:Big partiesWith lots of balloons and confettiOn TV with speeches from candidates
How are Convention delegates chosen?
The Democratic and Republican national parties establish some guidelines.
Each state party decides how to satisfy those guidelines and to choose its delegates. (or WHETHER to satisfy those guidelines)
Three basic processes.
How are delegates chosen?
Presidential Primary: A state-sponsored election to select delegates to national
nominating convention Can be open to any voter (“open”) or only to voters
registered in a party (“closed”) State party convention
A closed meeting of elected state party committee-members, who select national delegates
Caucus: A meeting where any affiliated voter can come and select
individuals to serve as delegates in favor of a candidate. Neighborhood delegatescounty convention County delegatesstate convention State delegatesNational Party Convention Delegates
Note:
Those voters who choose to register with a party and vote in a primary election are not average voters.
They are more knowledgeable about politics than average voters
They are more extreme in their opinions than average voters
A sampling of Republican party delegate selection
Date State/Territory Type Delegates[229]
Rule
Tue., January 3, 2012
Iowa nonbinding caucus
28 Proportional
Tue., January 10, 2012
New Hampshire
semi-closed primary
12 Proportional
Sat., January 21, 2012
South Carolina open primary
25 Winner Take All
Tue., January 31, 2012
Florida closed primary
50 Winner Take All
Sat., February 4, 2012
Nevada binding caucus
28 Convention
Tue., February 7, 2012
Colorado nonbinding caucus (closed)
36 Convention
Minnesota Caucus (open)
40 Convention
Tue., February 28, 2012
Arizona semi-closed
primary
29 WTA
Michigan open primary
30 District Winner Take All, Statewide Proportional
Sat., March 3, 2012
Washington binding caucus
43 District Winner Take All, Statewide proportional plus state convention
Tue., June 5, 2012
California top two primary
172
DELEGATES ARE CHOSEN ON DIFFERENT DATES
Date State/Territory
Tue., January 3, 2012 Iowa
Tue., January 10, 2012 New Hampshire
Sat., January 21, 2012 South Carolina
Tue., January 31, 2012 Florida
Sat., February 4, 2012 Nevada
February 4–11, 2012 Maine
Tue., February 7, 2012 Colorado, Minnesota
Tue., February 28, 2012 Arizona, Michigan
Sat., March 3, 2012 Washington,
Tue., March 6, 2012 Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia
March 6–10, 2012 Wyoming
Tue., March 10, 2012 Kansas, Virgin Islands
Tue., March 13, 2012 Alabama, American Samoa, Hawaii, Mississippi
Sat., March 17, 2012 Missouri
Sun., March 18, 2012 Puerto Rico
Tue., March 20, 2012 Illinois
Sat., March 24, 2012 Louisiana
Tue., April 3, 2012 Maryland, Texas, Washington DC, Wisconsin
Tue., April 24, 2012 Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island
Tue., May 8, 2012 Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia
Tue., May 15, 2012 Nebraska, Oregon
Tue., May 22, 2012 Arkansas, Kentucky
Tue., June 5, 2012 California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota
Tue., June 26, 2012 Utah
To be announced Guam
To be announced Northern Mariana Islands
Why does the order matter?
Early states get:
More time from the candidates More promises More campaign spending in-state Their voters get to experience the
campaign
Iowa and New Hampshire go first…
A representative beginning?From the 2000 Census
Iowa New Hampshire
National average
Population 2,929,324(30th)
1,235,786(41st)
281,421,906
% White
Median income% Farm employmt
A representative beginning?From the 2000 Census
Iowa New Hampshire
National average
Population
% White 93.9% 96% 75.1%
Median income% Farm employmt
A representative beginning?From the 2000 Census
Iowa New Hampshire
National average
Population
% White
Median income
$39,469 $49,467 $41,994
% Farm employmt
A representative beginning?From the 2000 Census
Iowa New Hampshire
National average
Population
% White
Median income% Farm employmt
4.4% .9% 1.9%
Why is the calendar important?
Early states (traditionally) have determined the outcome due to…
Bandwagon effect (voters, donors, media)
Media coverage!!
Ability to raise more money if you do well early
So in states with later primaries, the race is often OVER
Does every state want those advantages? Heck, yes!
Date 2008 1996
Jan wk1 IA, WY
Jan wk2 NH,
Jan wk3 MI, NV
Jan wk4 SC, FL AK, HI
Feb wk1 ME, CA, NY, IL, NJ, MA, GA, MN, MO, TN, CO, AZ, AL, CT, AR, OK, KS, NM, UT, DE, ID, ND, AL, MT
LA
Feb wk2 LA, NE, WA, ME, DC, MD, VA, HI, WI
IA
Feb wk3 NH
Feb wk4 DE, AZ, ND, SD
Mar wk1 OH, RI, TX, VT CA, CT, GA, ME, MD, HI, MN, ND, MA, NY, OH, RI, VT
Frontloading: the process by which states move their primaries earlier .
How do candidates win state nominating contests?
Depends on the state!
Campaign depends on state
RETAIL POLITICS WHOLESALE POLITICS
Iowa/NH Small, early states Face-to-face
campaigning Shaking hands, kissing
babies Making specific promises
to local communities Cheap! Time-intensive
Big states Too many voters to meet Big rallies (goal is to get
free time on TV news) PAID TV ADS Expensive! Doesn’t take as much
time (Get out the vote efforts
still need organization)
How does a candidate win the nomination?
Ultimately, by convincing primary voters/party activists That s/he is a good representative of the party That s/he can win the general election
Convince them through: Campaigns (which cost money and time) Party elite endorsements Favorable media coverage ($$ again) (be the
frontrunner!)
Advantages of “winning” the “invisible primary”
What are the consequences of frontloading?
More big states and more states hold nomination contests early in the year
Candidates need more money and organization to compete
Media knows this
Many candidates weeded out before voters get a chance to see them
Current state of the Republican nomination race
5 candidates have dropped out due to poor showings in early states Tim Pawlenty, Michelle Bachmann, Herman
Cain, John Huntsman, Rick Perry Four major candidates remain
Newt Gingrich Mitt Romney Ron Paul Rick Santorum
Current state of the nomination race
Rick Santorum “won” Iowa (no delegates officially) 13 delegates according to AP (Romney gets 12)
Mitt Romney won New Hampshire (7 delegates) Ron Paul got 3 delegates
Newt Gingrich won South Carolina 23 delegates
Mitt Romney leads in Florida polls (votes on Jan. 31)
Next states are Nevada and Maine (Feb. 4)