ÌÎÍÃÎËÛÍ Õ¯Í ÀÌÛÍ ÕÎÎË ÒÝÆÝÝËÈÉÍ ÁÀÉÄÀËncph.gov.mn/userfiles/NNS...

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ÍÈÉÃÌÈÉÍ ÝЯ¯Ë ÌÝÍÄÈÉÍ Õ¯ÐÝÝËÝÍ ÕÎÎË ÑÓÄËÀËÛÍ ÒªÂ ÌÎÍÃÎËÛÍ Õ¯Í ÀÌÛÍ ÕÎÎË ÒÝÆÝÝËÈÉÍ ÁÀÉÄÀË ¯íäýñíèé IV Ñóäàëãààíû Òàéëàí ÓËÀÀÍÁÀÀÒÀÐ 2011

Transcript of ÌÎÍÃÎËÛÍ Õ¯Í ÀÌÛÍ ÕÎÎË ÒÝÆÝÝËÈÉÍ ÁÀÉÄÀËncph.gov.mn/userfiles/NNS...

  • IV

    2011

  • 2

    : . , - . , -

    : . , - . , - ., - ., -

    :

    : . , -

    ISBN 978-99929-64-53-7

    DDC641.5517M-695

  • 3

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  • 8

    .......................................................................................................................................... 3 .......................................................................................................................................... 4 ..................................................................................................... 5 .............................................................................................................................................. 8 ............................................................................................................. 10 ....................................................................................................................... 11 ............................................................................................................................ 14 ........................................................................................................ 18 ......................................................................................................... 19 .................................................................................................. 21.

    1.1. , ................................231.2. , .................................24

    1.2.1. () ..................................................................................241.2.2. , ...............................................................................251.2.3. ..............................................................................................261.2.4. ............................................................................................. 261.2.5. ..................... 26

    1.3. ..............................................27.

    2.1. ....................................................282.2. ..................................................................................................282.3. ...................................................................................................282.4. .............................................................................................292.5. ..................................................................................292.6. .......................................................................................29

    . 3.1. .....................................................................................................303.2. ..........................................................303.3. , .........................................31

    3.3.1. ........................................................................................313.3.2. .............................................................................323.3.3. ..........................................................33

    3.4. , .......................................................343.5. .........................................................................343.6. ................................................................................ 34

    3.6.1. .............................................................................343.6.2. ...................................................................................353.6.3. ...............................................................................................373.6.4. .....................................................................373.6.5. .............................................................................373.6.6. ................................37

    . 4.1. ...............................38

    4.1.1. .........................................................................................38 4.1.2. ........................................................................39

    4.1.2.1. ............................................................................................... 404.1.2.2. ................................................................................... 414.1.2.3. ................................................ 424.1.2.4. ......................................... 444.1.2.5. ........................................ 45

    4.1.3. ............................................................484.1.3.1. ....................................................................................... 484.1.3.2. ....................................................................................... 50

  • 9

    4.1.3.3. ................................................................ 514.1.3.4. - ........................................ 514.1.3.5. ................................................................... 53

    4.1.4. , .......................564.1.4.1. ....................................... 564.1.4.2. ................................................................................ 584.1.4.3. ..................................................................... 59

    4.1.5. ..........................................................624.1.5.1. ................................................................................ 624.1.5.2. ............................................................................. 64

    4.1.6. , ..................................................664.1.7. .........................................................................68

    4.1.7.1. ...................................................................... 684.1.7.2. ..................................................................... 70

    4.1.8. ...................764.2. 7-11 ............................................80

    4.2.1. ..........................................................................................804.2.2. ......................................................................................804.2.3. 7-11 ...........................................844.2.4. , ................................................864.2.5. ...........................................................................................894.2.6. .............................................................................90

    4.3. .................................944.3.1. , .......................................................944.3.2. ........................................................................954.3.3. .....................................................................................................974.3.4. , ...................1004.3.5. .................................................................................................1024.3.6. ............................................................................................1034.3.7. ........................................1054.3.8. ....................................................110

    4.4 ..........................1194.4.1. , .....................................................1194.4.2. ..................................................................................1214.4.3. ........................................................................123

    4.4.3.1. ..................................................................................... 1234.4.3.2. ..................................................................................... 125

    4.4.4. ...........................................................................................1274.4.5. , ...............................1284.4.6. ............................................................................................1314.4.7. ...................................1324.4.8. ...........................135

    4.5. .....................................................1474.5.1. , .....................................................1474.5.2. () .........................................................................1494.5.3 ............................................................................................1514.5.4 ......................................................151

    4.6 .......................................................1624.6.1 .............................................................1624.6.2 ...........................................................165

    . .............................................................................................................169. .......................................................................................................................172 ..............................................................................................................................173

  • 10

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  • 15

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  • 16

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  • 17

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  • 18

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  • 19

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  • 20

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  • 21

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  • 22

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  • 23

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  • 24

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  • 26

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  • 27

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  • 28

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  • 29

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  • 30

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  • 31

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  • 32

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  • 33

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  • 34

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  • 35

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  • 36

    6. ,

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  • 37

    3.6.3

    18 , . , , , 16 1 .

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  • 38

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  • 39

    , 0 34 22.8 34 23.0 24 20.3 49 31.0 27 20.3 168 22.21 29 19.5 39 26.4 45 38.1 35 22.2 35 26.3 183 26.82 30 20.1 35 23.6 15 12.7 37 23.4 28 21.1 145 20.43 36 24.2 20 13.5 15 12.7 17 10.8 28 21.1 116 17.54 20 13.4 20 13.5 19 16.1 20 12.7 15 11.3 94 13.0

    71 47.7 73 49.3 66 55.9 71 44.9 69 51.9 350 50.7 78 52.3 75 50.7 52 44.1 87 55.1 64 48.1 356 49.3 149 148 118 158 133 706

    , . , 326 (58.9%), , 380 (41.1%) .

    ( 12).

    12. ,

    ,

    0-59 706

    2-59 633

    6-59 433

    - 6-59 524

    ( ) 6-59 524

    (25[OH]) 6-59 524

    , / 0-59 704/699

    4.1.2.

    , . , , 0 5 .

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

    ( )- ,

    10. ()-

    , 1-9 , ( 10).

  • 40

    4.1.2.1.

    4.7% (95% 3.1-7.0) ( 11).

    11. , , , (X 13).

    13. , ,

    (Z

  • 41

    14. , 5

    (Z

  • 42

    , ( 15).

    15. , ,

    (Z

  • 43

    14. , ,

    ( 17).

    17. , ,

    (Z

  • 44

    , 5 , , ( 18).

    4.1.2.4.

    0-59 (98.4%, 95% 97.0-99.2), 1 99.3% (95% 97.1-99.8) . 693 13 680 .

    5.7% (95% 4.0-8.2) .

    6.57.6

    5.3 5.2 4.6

    012345678

    (n=139)

    (n=144)

    (n=113) (n=154)

    (n=130)(n=130)

    15. , 0-59 , ( 15).

    6.7

    3.1

    7.45.4

    7.3

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    0-11 (n=166)

    12-23 (n=175)

    24-35 (n=140)

    36-47 (n=112)

    48-59 (n=87)

    , 16. ,

    ( 16). 5.2% (95% 3.1-8.5), 6.3% (95% 4.0-9.8) . .

    4.9% (95% 2.8-8.5), 6.9% (95% 4.3-10.9) .

    , . 35.5% (95% 18.4-57.3) , 54.1% (95% 35.3-71.8) . 2.5 (95% 1.5-4.3) , 12.9% (95% 10.4-15.9) , 1.9% (95% 1.0-3.6) .

  • 45

    4.1.2.5.

    (31.1%)- , , 42 (23.3%) , .

    19.

    ,

    5 10.9 8 15.1 5 11.4

    10 17.2 17 46.5 18 45.5

    27 71.9 17 38.4 19 43.2

    , , , , . (28.1%) ( 19).

    5 ( 17).

    5

    32%

    7%

    5%

    %

    18%

    55%

    19%

    19%

    %

    17.

    2 , . ( )- . , , .

    - . 5 10 . 10 . 10 . .

  • 46

    - 15.6 . . , 33.1 . - 43 . , , 20 . .

    - - , . , 2 5 . - .

    , . , . , . IV (6.7%, 95%CI 4.8-9.1) - 2005 (9.6%, 95% )- .

    - 2006 Z . : (), - , . 6-59 .

    1.73.7

    0.6 1.3

    12.6 12.5

    6.7 5.7

    2624.6

    19.6

    13.3

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    Wasting Underweight Stunting

    18. - ,

    - . 1999 - 2004 ( 18). . , III - /- (1995 )- 2006 - , . - 38- . 2004 6-59 , 0-59 . IV 0-5 ( 20).

  • 47

    20. - ,

    (Z

  • 48

    4.1.3.

    4.1.3.1.

    2-59 663 . 19- .

    6

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

    ()

    , /

    19. 2-59 6, /-

    2-59 28.5% (95% 24.2-33.2) /P=0.001/. 0.4% (95% 0.1-1.3) , 11.3% (95% 8.2-15.4) , 16.7% (95% 13.3-20.9) ( 20).

    20. 2-59 ,

    . , , ( 21).

    - ,0.4%

    - ,11.3%

    -,

    16.7%

    -71.5%

    6

  • 49

    21. 2-59 , ,

    95% 95% 95% 95%

    139 0.7 0.1-5.2 15.1 9.1-23.9 19.4 13.6-27.0 35.3 25.8-46.0

    143 0.7 0.1-5.1 11.9 6.9-19.7 18.2 11.8-27.0 30.8 21.8-41.5

    113 0.9 0.1-6.1 9.7 4.8-18.7 15 9.7-22.6 25.7 18.1-35.0

    151 0,0 - 11.3 7.6-16.4 13.9 9.0-20.9 25.2 17.9-34.2

    117 0,0 - 10.3 4.6-21.2 16.2 9.7-25.9 26.5 18.7-36.2

    298 0.2 0.0-1.3 11.2 6.7-17.9 15.6 10.8-21.8 26.9 21.0-33.7

    365 0.7 0.2-2.9 11.6 8.1-16.3 18.4 14.0-23.6 30.7 24.9-37.1

    ( 21).

    , (2=79.4,

  • 50

    . 2-23 24-59 . , ( 22).

    4.1.3.2.

    6-59 524 . 89 (15.7%) 2 (0.3%) . 91 433 .

    22. 6-59

    21.4% (95% 24.8-31.9) ( 22)

    24.4 21.0 21.226.9

    19.6

    05

    10152025303540

    (n=86)

    (n=81)

    (n=66)

    (n=108)

    (n=92)

    23. 6-59 ,

    ( 23).

    , , ( 23).

    23. 6-59 , ,

    (

  • 51

    , . 24-59 . ( 23).

    4.1.3.3.

    , 433 , , ( ) ( 24).

    24. 6-59

    (5.0%) . . 20.9%, 21.6% .

    7.6% (95% 3.3-16.3), 7.0% (95% 2.6-17.4), 4.6% (95% 1.8-11.6), 3.7% (95% 1.2-10.5), 4.3% (95% 1.8-10.2) . 6-59 5.4% (95% 1.2-10.5), 4.4% (95% 2.3-8.6) .

    6.3% 24-59 (4.2%) 1.6 (RR=1.6 /1.6-6.2/, 2=5.8, =0.01). 18-23 8.3%, 24-29 7.5%, 12-17 6.3% (2=139.9, < 0.001).

    6.8% (3.2%) 1.9 .

    4.1.3.4. -

    7-45 25 (3.3%, 95% 2.0-5.4) 12 2 2.8%, 2-4 4.2% (2=5.7, =0.05). 51.2% , 37.2% 11.5%- . 69.9%- .

    6-59 6 ( 24).

    +, +, 5.0%

    -, +, 16.4%

    -, -, 59.5%

    +, - , 19.1%

  • 52

    24. - , ,

    - >=60 95% 95%

    6-23

    46 32 69.6 47.5-85.3 5 10.9 4.7-23.2

    56 36 64.3 47.8-77.9 8 14.3 6.6-28.2

    54 22 40.7 26.3-56.9 6 11.1 5.6-20.9

    64 24 37.5 21.9-56.2 5 7.8 3.5-16.5

    50 23 46.0 31.2-61.6 7 14.0 6.6-27.4

    270 137 51.0 42.9-59.1 31 12.6 8.5-18.324-59

    86 30 34.9 24.6-46.8 1 1.2 0.2-7.9

    75 25 33.3 23.1-45.4 4 5.3 1.6-16.5

    49 11 22.4 10.6-41.4 3 6.1 1.9-18.2

    74 23 31.1 18.4-47.4 5 6.8 3.0-14.6

    71 14 19.7 11.2-32.3 1 1.4 0.2-9.0

    355 103 26.5 21.1-32.8 14 3.3 1.8-6.1

    , 6-23 . 2008 190, 2009 321 6-23 . 6-23 51.0% 6 . 60 .

    , . 60 . ( 24). 24-59 6 . 53.3% (95% 45.0-61.4)- , 39.3% (95% 31.2-48.0)- 2.7% (95% 0.7-9.8)- , 2.6% (95% 1.1-6.3)- , 1.7% (95% 0.5-5.6)- . 93.5% (95% 86.6-96.9)- 6.1% (95% 2.8-13.1)- .

    - 58.5% (95% 49.1-67.3) / , 41.2% (95% 31.3-52.0) / , 1.4% (95% 0.4-4.9) , 1.0% (95% 0.3-3.0) / , 2.5% (95% 0.9-6.7) , 5.9% (95% 3.3-10.2) .

    6 60 , - .

    76.6% .

  • 53

    4.1.3.5.

    , , , . 14.8% (95% 12.0-18.2)- 1-2 (2.1%, 95% 0.7-5.7) , ( 25).

    25.

    (n=703) Hb -

    95% 95%

    104 14.8 12.0-18.2 102 17 24.2 15.2-36.3 590 83.1 78.8-86.7 551 170 29.0 24.4-34.0 9 2.1 0.7-5.7 8 3 40.2 13.9-73.6 78 10.4 7.8- 13.7 77 13 28.5 16.7-44.2

    28 4.2 2.7- 6.4 27 4 18.7 6.6-43.1

    10 1.9 0.8- 4.2 9 1 7.7 1.1-39.2

    8 1.3 0.6- 2.8 8 3 33.3 11.8-65.1

    . , 28.5-33.3% . 40%- . .

    13.3% (95% 8.1-21.3), 16.6% (95% 13.3-20.5)- ( 26).

    26.

    -

    , 95%

    -

    19011.1

    (6.1-19.2)2.9

    (0.9-8.7)0.5

    (0.1-3.6)1.7

    (0.5-5.1)84.0

    (74.1-90.5)2.7

    (0.5-12.6)

    47111.0

    (8.2-14.7)1.9

    (3.1-7.8)2.4

    (1.0-5.8)1.3

    (0.5-3.2)81.8

    (77.2-85.7)1.6

    (0.6-4.1)

    .

    8.0% (95% 5.4-11.6) , 1.8% (95% 0.9-3.3) . 61 94.9% (95% 85.8-98.3)- / .

    23.4%, 28.8% . 7.1% (95% 3.3-14.4), 9.2% (95% 6.0-13.9) .

  • 54

    :

    - 2-59 28.5% . , III (21.4%) (RR=1.3; 95% 1.1-1.6) .

    6-59 , - 2001 . 6-59 22.8% (95% 18.6 27.6) . III . 6-23 IV 35.4% (33.4%) , .

    48.5

    31.6

    21.422.828.5

    41 34

    22.321.4

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    2010

    25. 6-59

    II (1999 ) III (2004 ) IV 2004 ( 25).

    (98.6%) . . . , , .

    2 , 24-59 . , , , , 2-5 . . , . 6 , , , , - , . , 6-11 44.4%, 12-17 46.9% (

  • 55

    ) . , . 6-23 . , .

    25- II (1999 ) III (22.3%, 2004 ) , IV (21.4%)- 2004 .

    , 5 . , III 44.4%, 18.0% (RR=2.4; 95% 1.7-3.5). , 5 44% . , 2001 (63%) (19%)- . IV . 1999 . , , .

    , 6-23 - . - 5 3 , 6-23 60 2 . . 6-23 . - . - . - , , - , .

    2004 . 6 , . , . - , , , . -, - , . , .

  • 56

    : 1. 28.5% -

    - . 2. 2-5,

    6-11, 12-17 ( ) .

    3. (21.4%) .4. ,

    , , , .

    4.1.4. ,

    4.1.4.1.

    31% , , 19.5%- , 9.4%- , 2.8%- , 0.8%- , 9.4% , 18.3%- 7.4% , 11.8% , 9.5%- , 3% , 5.4% , 0.2% , 15.7% , 9.6% , 25.6%- , 0.9%- 6.6%- (: 2).

    (95% 7.4-11.8), (95% 14.1-23.3), (95% 8.7-16.0), (95% 12.7-19.2), (95% 6.7-13.6), (95% 21.2-29.7) 5 , , , (: 2).

    :

    , , (49.2%, 95% 40.3-58.2 40.5%, 95% 31.7-50.0) , (36.6%, 95% 28.5-45.5 26.3%, 95% 19.2-34.8), (5.9%, 95% 2.7-12.4 4.5%, 95% 2.0-9.7) 0-11 12-23 ,

    (31.6%, 95% 24.2-40.1) 0-11 , (16.1%, 95% 9.0-27.2 10.2%, 95% 5.7-17.6),

    (25.3%, 95% 17.5-34.9 20.1%, 95% 13.6-28.6), (11.7%, 95% 7.5-17.7 9.8%, 95% 5.3-17.2) 12-23 24-35 ,

    (6.9%, 95% 3.7-12.5), (10.0%, 95% 5.6-17.0) (25.5%, 95% 18.6-33.9) 12-23 ,

    (23.0%, 95% 14.9-33.8) 24-35 , (14.1%, 95% 8.7-22.1 15.8%, 95% 9.7-24.6),

    (17.0%, 95% 10.3-26.6 14.1%, 95% 7.7-24.5), (34.4%, 95% 25.6-44.4 39.7%, 95% 27.6-53.2), (1.5%, 95% 0.5-4.2 1.6%, 95% 0.2-10.6) 24-35 36-47 ,

    (0.5%, 95% 0.1-3.8) 36-47 .

    12-23 19.1% (95% 12.0-29.0), 24-35 5.1% (95% 2.3-11.0)- (: 3).

    55.0% (95% 49.5-60.5) .

  • 57

    59.1 54.169.2

    46.7 50.4

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    (n=149)

    (n=148)

    (n=117)

    (n=158)

    (n=133)

    26. ,

    0-59 , . , ( 26).

    27. ,

    95%

    325 171 51.7 43.6-59.7

    380 219 59.8 53.3-66.0

    ( 27).

    ( 27).

    46.664.7 55.4 56.6 46.9

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    0-11 (n=168)

    12-23 (n=182)

    24-35 (n=145)

    36-47 (n=116)

    48-59 (n=94)

    ,

    27. ,

    12-23 , .

    60.8% (95% 53.2-67.8), 49.2% (95% 42.7-55.7) (p

  • 58

    4.1.4.2.

    6-59 524 25 (25[]) , .

    21.8% (95% 16.4-28.4) , 20.6% (95% 16.8-25.0) .

    28. , ,

    (25[OH]

  • 59

    4.1.4.3.

    2009 10 , 7-10 .

    179 27.4% (95% 55.4-72.9) 7-10 , 457 (70%) , 17 (2.6%) .

    30. ,

    95% (50000 ) 112 60.9 49.6-71.2 (50000 ) 1 0.5 0.1-3.4 () 43 24.5 15.9-35.7 8 4.8 1.7-13.1 *

    8 4.4 1.8-10.1

    *

    3 1.3 0.3-5.9

    4 3.7 1.4-9.4

    66.6% (95% 54.5-76.8) (50000)- ( 30).

    29.2

    1715.5

    3.4

    11.4

    1.7

    8.5

    2.8 2.4

    8.1

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 x*

    *- 28. ,

    61.7% 1-3 1 ( 28).

  • 60

    31.

    2009 10- 2010 8-

    , * **-

    1 50000 34 28.4 166.6 8.3-16.7

    2 100000 19 18.6 333.3 16.7-33.3

    3 150000 14 14.1 500 25-50

    4 200000 5 3.7 666.6 33.3-66.7

    5 250000 15 11.1 833.3 41.7-83.3

    6 300000 2 1.9 1000 150-100

    7 350000 9 8.4 1166.6 58.3-116.6

    8 400000 3 3.1 1333.3 66.7-133.3

    10 500000 3 2.6 1666.6 83.3-166.6

    8 8.8%

    *- 10 300 ** - 1000-2000 - .

    . , 1- 16.7%, 1- 8.3%- . 7 (350000 ) 8.1% ( 31).

    ( 32).

    32. ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    , *

    **-

    8 4.4 200000 1000 201000 670 33.5-67

    3 1.3 200000

    500-7500 200500 207500

    668-69066.8-69.033.4-34.5

    *- 10 300 ** - 1000-2000 - .

    10 .

    23.5 29.935.6

    13.927.1

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    29. (2009 10 ),

  • 61

    , . ( 29).

    23.1% (95% 17.1-30.5), 18.8% (95% 11.1-30.2) .

    . 5 . , , 2004 III , , , , , .

    , , , , , 12 , , , , , , , , , 12-35 x III .

    . , .

    - 2000-2003 , 37.1%, 30.5%, 41% , 49.1% , . , , , /., 2005/.

    . , , .

    . 5 x III . 5 , . . . , , .

    2- 2 . 5 .

  • 62

    . III 2 . , . , 10 , 166 , 1- 16.7%, 1- 8.3%- . 50 000 7 350 000 8.4% . , . III . 2 .

    3 III . , .

    :1. .2.

    .

    3. 21.8% , 20.6% .

    4. 48-59 .

    5. , .

    6. .

    4.1.5.

    4.1.5.1.

    6-59 524 ()- . 89 (15.7%), 2 (0.3%), 91 433 ()- .

    30. 6-59 ,

    =0.35-0.69

    / , 30.8%

    =

  • 63

    32.4% (95% 26.6-38.7) , ( 30).

    ( 31).

    40.725.9

    16.7

    37.1 37

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    31. ,

    , , , .

    33. ,

    (

  • 64

    34. ,

    (

  • 65

    0-5 . . 6-11 . 30 54-59 ( 34).

    87.0

    63.3

    82.6

    94.0 96.798.7 98.7

    89.994.7

    90.6

    13.0

    34.8

    17.46.0 1.5 1.3 1.3 10.1 9.41.9 1.8

    5.3

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    0-5 6-11 12-17 18-23 24-29 30-35 36-41 42-47 48-53 54-59,

    87.0

    63.3

    82.6

    94.0 96.798.7 98.7

    89.9

    94.790.6

    35. ,

    0-5 8 100000 , 200000 . 6-11 53 34.8% 100000 63.3% 2 200000 ( 35). , 63.8% , 35%- .

    - (2006)- 3 33.0% ( - 0.7/- )- . 100000 -, 200000- 2000 /74 7- 6-11 (100000 ) 1 , 12-59 (200000 ) 2 5 11- .

    50000- 2000 . 2006 3.7%- 0.9%- .

    :

    1. 5 32.2% .

    2. .

    3. , , , .

    7 , ,

  • 66

    4.1.6. ,

    ( 35).

    35.

    95%

    85.2 68.6-93.8

  • 67

    . 59- :

    , , ,

    , , ,

    , , , , , , ,

    , ,

    , , .

    (60.6%), (7.8%) . 8.2% .

    36.8% . 20.4% .

    (33.8% 52.6% , )- . 31.9%, 34.8% . 32.4% , 47.8% .

    . , , , , , , . .

    1. .2.

    .3. .

  • 68

    4.1.7.

    4.1.7.1.

    ( 1 ) 0-23 350 85.5% (95% 80.5-89.4) 1 ( 36).

    36. ,

    95% 63 59 93.7 84.2-97.6

    72 64 88.9 77.8-94.8

    69 56 81.2 72.1-87.8

    84 69 82.1 72.0-89.2

    62 52 83.9 72.1-91.3

    1 , ( 13). 1 , ( 84.9% (95% 74.2-91.7); 86.0% (95% 81.0-89.8)) . (0-11 86.0% (95% 77.6-91.6); 12-23 85.1% (95% 79.3-89.5)) .

    0-23 98.2% (95% 96.3-99.1) . 0-23 98.4% (95% 88.6-99.8), 98.6% (95% 90.5-99.8), 94.2% (95% 86.6-97.6), 97.6% (95% 91.3-99.4) 0-23 .

    0-23 78.6% (95% 73.1-83.3) . .

    37. 0 23 ,

    95% 59 93.7 84.5-97.6

    59 80.8 69.0-88.9

    52 75.7 64.9-83.5

    65 77.4 66.3-85.6

    46 74.2 62.2-83.4

    0-23 ( 37). 0-23 80.2% (95% 73.3-85.6), 77.5% (95% 69.2-84.1) .

    0-5 98.0% (95% 91.2-99.6), 6-11 89.1% (95% 74.5-95.8), 12-17 73.1% (95% 62.2-81.7), 18-23 57.8% (95% 47.2-67.6) 12-23 .

  • 69

    6-23 . 6-23 73.1% (95% 66.5-78.9) .

    91.3 76.8 68.5 71.9 68

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    36. 6-23 ,

    6-23 ( 36).

    6-23 71.5% (95% 61.6-79.7), 75.5% (95% 67.3-82.2) .

    : 0-5 71.3% (95% 55.8-81.2) .

    76.5 64.793.6

    55.1 66.7

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    37. ,

    37- 0-5 ( 10). 0-5 69.1% (95% 50.6-83.0), 74.2% (95% 57.7-85.9) .

    , 0-1 98% (95% 87.2-99.7), 2-3 85.8% (95% 67.8-94.6), 4-5 46.7% (95% 29.2-65.1) . .

    : 12-15 74.0% (95% 60.4-84.1) .

    100.081.8

    65.091.7

    68.8

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    38. ,

  • 70

    38- , , , . 70.2% (95% 52.1-83.6), 81.1% (95% 59.8-99.5) . . : 20-23 54.6% (95% 39.6-68.8) .

    77.863.6 53.8

    23.150.0

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    39. ,

    (95% 44.2-93.9) (95% 27.9-88.8) 60 , ( 39). 52.0% (95% 31.0-72.3), 57.3% (95% 36.9-75.5) .

    , - 24 . 24-59 23.6% (95% 18.6-29.5) . , 24-35 34.8% (95% 25.3-45.7), 36-47 21.7% (95% 14.1-32.1), 48-59 8.5% (95% 4.4-15.8) .

    : (median) :

    0-59 14.1 0-35 12.8 .

    4.1.4.1.

    0-5 : 0-5 28.7% (95% 18.8-41.2)- , ( , ), . 0-5 25.6% (95% 16.0-38.2) , , .

    , , ( , ), 0-5 . :

    , 2.0% (95% 0.4-8.3)- , 6.6% (95% 2.9-14.5)- , , 11.6% (95% 5.4-23.3)- , 15.3% (8.6-25.7)- , ,

    , 6.9% (95% 2.4-18.1)- , 7.8% (95% 3.4-16.7)- , 7.5% (95% 2.9-18.1)- , 1.4% (95% 0.2-10.1)- / , 2.7% (95% 0.3-17.8)- , 1.4% (95% 0.2-10.1)- 1.6% (95% 0.4-6.5)- (), 1.4% (95% 0.2-10.1)- .

    6-23 : 6-23 80.8%

  • 71

    (95% 73.6-86.3) - .

    67.492.9 92.2

    41.3

    82.0

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    40. 6-23 ,

    6-23 , , , , . 6-23 , , (

  • 72

    39. , 6-23 ,

    ,

    95%

    112 80.4 60.1-91.8

    115 78.6 63.5-88.6

    83 79.6 66.0-88.7

    99 68.7 53.3-80.9

    86 72.0 60.3-81.4

    (72%), (68.7%) , 3.6-6.9%- ( 39). 6-23 68.3% (95% 59.6-75.9), 86.4% (95% 79.5-91.2) , , . , 6-11 68.2% (95% 55.4-78.8), 12-17 80.4% (95% 71.1-87.2), 18-23 76.5% (95% 66.4-84.3) , . , .

    48.7% (95% 37.9-59.5) , , , .

    6-23 92.2% (95% 86.9-95.4) (p

  • 73

    41. 6-23 ,

    ,

    95% 31 21.7 9.7-41.8

    21 12.5 5.2-27.0

    33 35.2 21.5-51.9

    24 10.9 5.2-21.6

    81 54.0 37.7-69.5

    6-23 . . , , , ( 41).

    6-23 44.5% (95% 33.6-56.0), 16.5% (95% 9.5-27.1) . , . 6-11 25.4% (95% 16.1-37.5), 12-17 32.3% (95% 21.9-44.9), 18-23 42.1% (95% 29.7-55.6) , .

    51.9% (95% 41.6-62.1) , .

    6-23 47.1% (95% 40.7-53.6) , , , , , , , . , 6-23 ( 42).

    42. , 6-23 ,

    ,

    95%

    18 13.0 6.9-23.3

    50 53.6 39.8-66.8

    66 70.4 57.3-80.8

    54 31.2 21.2-43.5

    72 46.0 33.6-58.9

    , , . 6-23 48.8% (95% 39.7-57.9), 44.6% (95% 35.6-53.9) , .

    6-11 31.7% (95% 22.3-43.0), 12-17 53.1% (95% 42.2-63.7), 18-23 54.4% (95% 42.6-65.6) , .

    4 6-23 : 6-23 52.1% (95% 45.3-58.8) 4 .

  • 74

    43. 4 6-23 ,

    4

    95%

    46 12 26.1 14.8-41.8

    56 28 50.0 35.3-64.7

    52 33 63.5 49.3-75.6

    64 15 23.4 15.2-34.4

    50 32 64.0 50.5-75.6

    4 6-23 . 4 6-23 , , ( 43).

    4 6-11 32.4% (95% 21.4-45.9), 12-17 62.9% (95% 53.3-71.6), 18-23 57.3% (95% 45.6-68.3) .

    37.4% (95% 30.3-45.1), 48.7% (95% 37.9-59.5), 51.6% (95% 43.2-59.9) - 4 .

    6-23 :

    44.

    6-23

    95% 61 25.1 17.9 - 33.9

    14 4.8 2.6 - 8.7

    144 51.2 43.7 - 58.6

    138 54.7 48.0 - 61.3

    / 19 9.0 5.1 - 15.5

    / 27 10.7 7.1 - 15.7

    206 78.5 72.8 - 83.3

    14 5.8 3.1 - 10.7

    2 0.8 0.1 - 5.7

    : 4 0.9 0.3 - 2.6

    6-23 78.5%- . , , ( 44).

    : 6-23 70.0% (95% 63.2-76.1) .

  • 75

    82.6 71.455.6 56.2

    76.0

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    41. 6-23 ,

    6-23 , , , . 6-23 ( 41).

    6-23 76.4% (95% 66.1-84.4), 60.4% (95% 52.9-67.5) .

    53.8% (95% 44.4-63.0), 33.3% (95% 25.2-42.6), 34.5% (95% 23.8-47.0) .

    - 2007 - , - . , , . . , . , 2005 , , - 2010 . II (30 93.4%) III (1 83.5%)- . - 2005 .

    2005 ( -83.2%, -64.5%)- .

    - 2005 73.8%, 54.7%, 90.0% 93.7%, 76.5%, 100% - , , .

    . , , 2010 ( - 26.3%, -41.7%)- .

  • 76

    , , .

    , , , , , .

    1. 85.5 1

    .2. 71.3 ,

    74.0%, 54.6 . 3. 6 28.7%

    .4. 6-23 ,

    . 5. - 3-4

    . . 6. ,

    , .

    4.1.8

    701 84.8% , 8.0% , 3.6% .

    : 43.3% , ( 45).

    45. , ,

    95% 71 47.7 35.1-60.5

    86 58.5 46.8-69.3

    32 27.1 17.4-39.6

    36 23.2 15.9-32.7

    58 43.9 35.1-53.2

    .

    , 82.4% (95% 74.2-88.4), 65.1% (95% 57.2-72.3) ( 6 , )- (p

  • 77

    , , 69.2% (95% 44.6-86.2) 44.0% (95% 24.4-65.7) .

    . (46.7%, 95% 41.1-52.1) , .

    , , ( 46).

    46. , ,

    95% 68 45.6 33.3-58.5

    90 61.2 50.7-70.8

    47 39.8 30.2-50.3

    29 18.7 12.9-26.4

    63 47.7 36.3-59.4

    7.3% 1-2 , 42.7% 3 , 21.8% 4 , 10.8% 5 ( 42).

    42.

    , , 43.0% (95% 34.8-51.5), 30.5% (95% 24.7-36.9) 3-5 (p

  • 78

    , : 47.8% (95% 41.1-54.6) , 38.7% (95% 33.0-44.7) , 22.4% (95% 17.2-28.6) , 2.2% (95% 1.1-4.4) . 10.8% , 7.4% . , , .

    12.9% (95% 9.9-16.7) , 3.9% (95% 2.0-7.6) , 6.0% (95% 3.8-9.2) . 18.1% (95% 13.8-23.6) , 5.5% (95% 3.4-8.5) , 7.4% (95% 4.9-11.0) . (p

  • 79

    50 , , .

    , , , 2 , , . : , , , , , , , . : 4 , 11.8% , 1.3% , 5.3% 19.1% , 1.8% , 5.8% .

    , 45.3% - , , -2010 (44.3%) .

    (2002) , , -2010 , , , , .

    , , , , , , , .

    1. , 46.7 .

    2. , , 2 . 2 .

    3. , , .

  • 80

    4.2 7 11

    4.2.1

    () , , , , , . , , 711 .

    711 , 21 78 , 8 125 1207 . 53.7% (95% 50.2-57.1) , 46.3% (95% 42.9-49.8) ( 48).

    48. 7 11 , ,

    ,

    7 8 9 10 11

    oo oo oo oo oo oo

    137 55.3 147 52.5 152 53.8 163 53.9 40 49.7 641 53.5

    114 44.7 124 47.5 130 46.2 150 46.1 48 503 566 46.5

    11 (7.9%, 95% 5.8-10.6), 21.9% - 25.8% .

    , (: 4, 43).

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%7 8 9 10 11

    43. 7 11 ,

    711 , , . , , , . 1120 , .

    4.2.2

    711 1206 , , , . 27.7 (95% 27.1-28.2) 129.2 (95% 128.4-130.0) ( 49).

  • 81

    49. 7 11 , ,

    () ()

    95% 95%

    226 25.6 24.7-26.5 226 126.4 124.8-127.9 241 27.1 26.1-28.0 240 128.9 127.2-130.4 239 27.3 26.4-28.1 239 129.3 128.0-130.6 255 26.0 25.3-26.6 254 127.5 126.1-128.7 245 29.1 27.9-30.3 244 130.5 128.9-132.1

    711 , .

    16.4 (95% 16.1-16.6) . 711 (: 5, 44).

    15.9 16.2 16.2 15.9

    16.9

    14.5

    15

    15.5

    16

    16.5

    17

    17.5

    18

    44. 7 11 ,

    16.6 (95% 16.2-16.9), 16.0 (95% 15.8-16.2) .

    . , , - 711 ( 45).

    ( )

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    -4.9

    9 to

    -4.5

    -4.4

    9 to

    -4.0

    -3.9

    9 to

    -3.5

    -3.4

    9 to

    -3.0

    -2.9

    9 to

    -2.5

    -2.4

    9 to

    -2.0

    -1.9

    9 to

    -1.5

    -1.4

    9 to

    -1.0

    -0.9

    9 to

    -0.5

    -0.4

    9 to

    0.0

    0.01

    to 0

    .5

    0.51

    to 1

    .0

    1.01

    to 1

    .5

    1.51

    to 2

    .0

    2.01

    to 2

    .5

    2.51

    to 3

    .0

    3.01

    to 3

    .5

    3.51

    to 4

    .0

    4.01

    to 4

    .5

    4.51

    to 5

    .0

    IV

    -

    45. 711

  • 82

    , , . 92.4% (95% 89.5-94.6) , 2.5% (95% 1.5-4.0) 0.8% (95% 0.4-1.6) , 3.7% (95% 2.3-5.9) , 0.6% (95% 0.2-1.6) . 711 , ( 50).

    50. 7 11 ,

    95% 95% 95% 95%

    226 3,5 1,8-7,0 1,8 0,7-4,4 1,8 0,7-4,4 0,4 0,1-3,2 240 0,8 0,2-3,4 0,4 0,1-2,9 0,8 0,2-3,2 0,8 0,1-5,8 239 2,5 0,8-7,3 0,4 0,1-3,0 2,1 0,9-4,6 0 - 254 3,1 1,6-6,3 1,6 0,5-5,0 1,6 0,6-3,9 0 - 244 2,9 1,2-6,6 0,8 0,2-3,2 7,0 3,9-12,1 0,8 0,2-3,1

    , , ( 46).

    90.6

    94.5

    2.8

    2.1

    4.8

    2.4

    1.1

    50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

    46. 7 11 ,

    , . (5.2%, 95% 3.1-8.5) (1.1%, 95% 0.5-2.3) 4.7 (p=0.004) ( 51).

    51. 7 11 ,

    95% 95% 95% 95%

    624 2.7 1.5-5.1 0.9 0.4-2.1 5.2 3.1-8.5 0.8 0.3-2.4 579 2.0 1.1-3.6 0.8 0.3-1.9 1.1 0.5-2.3 0.2 0.0-1.1

    . 711 88.4% (95% 85.8-90.5) , 9.3% (95% 7.4-11.5) , 2.4% (95% 1.6-3.6) .

    ( 47).

    4.8 1.1

    2.4

  • 83

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    -5.9

    9 to

    -5.5

    -5.4

    9 to

    -5.0

    -4.9

    9 to

    -4.5

    -4.4

    9 to

    -4.0

    -3.9

    9 to

    -3.5

    -3.4

    9 to

    -3.0

    -2.9

    9 to

    -2.5

    -2.4

    9 to

    -2.0

    -1.9

    9 to

    -1.5

    -1.4

    9 to

    -1.0

    -0.9

    9 to

    -0.5

    -0.4

    9 to

    0.0

    0.01

    to 0

    .5

    0.51

    to 1

    .0

    1.01

    to 1

    .5

    1.51

    to 2

    .0

    2.01

    to 2

    .5

    2.51

    to 3

    .0

    3.01

    to 3

    .5

    3.51

    to 4

    .0

    4.01

    to 4

    .5

    IV -

    47. 711

    711 , / Z 2 1 . , . 711 14.6% (95% 10.9-19.7) , 7.1% (95% 3.6-13.5) , ( 52).

    52. 711 ,

    95% 95%

    226 14.6 10.7-19.7 7.1 3.6-13.5

    240 7.9 5.2-12.0 1.3 0.4-3.7

    239 10.9 6.7-17.1 0.8 0.1-5.8

    254 12.6 8.7-18.0 3.1 1.6-6.1

    244 7.0 3.9-12.0 2.0 3.9-12.0

    1203 9.3 7.4-11.5 2.4 1.6-3.6

    . , 9% (95% 6.7-12.1) , 2.1% (95% 1.1-3.7) , 9.5% (95% 6.6-13.5) , 2.7% (95% 1.6-4.7) ( 53).

    53. 7 11 ,

    95% 95%

    558 9.0 6.7-12.1 2.1 1.1-3.7 484 9.5 6.6-13.5 2.7 1.6-4.7

    , 15.2% (95% 11.7-19.5), 9.6% (95% 7.0-13.1) (p=0.02). 1.6 ( 48).

  • 84

    7.71.9

    9.612.1

    3.2

    15.2

    0

    3

    6

    9

    12

    15

    18

    48. 7 11 ,

    , ( 54).

    54. 7 11 ,

    95% 95%

    7 252 6.9 4.0-11.5 0.7 0.2-2.58 271 8.9 5.5-14.1 0.7 0.2-2.59 282 10.8 6.8-16.5 3.2 1.5-6.510 311 9.3 6.3-13.5 3.9 2.1-7.211 87 12.4 5.5-25.5 4.0 1.5-10.4

    , 11 12.4% (95% 5.5-25.5) 4.0% (95% 1.5-10.4) 7 6.9% (95%4.0-11.5) , 0.7% (95% 0.2-2.5) .

    4.2.3 7-11

    711 11.8% (95% 9.2-15.0) , 88.2% (95% 84.9-90.8) . ( 55).

    55. 7 11 ,

    95% 95%

    15 6,6 3.6-12.0 211 93,4 88.0-96.4

    50 20,7 15.6-27.0 191 79,3 73.0-84.4

    20 8,4 5.5-12.5 219 91,6 87.5-94.5

    14 5,5 2.7-10.6 241 94,5 89.2-96.9

    28 11,4 6.5-19.3 217 88,6 80.7-93.5

    , (: 6, 49).

  • 85

    0

    10

    20

    30

    8

    7

    7

    8

    7.713.4

    9

    1

    10

    4.320.8

    11

    49. 7 11 ,

    ( 56).

    56. 7 11 ,

    95% 95% 95%

    641 9.9 7.3-13.3 90.1 86.7-92.7 0 -

    566 13.9 10.4-18.4 86.0 81.5-89.6 0.1 0.0-0.5

    (12.4%, 95% 7.7-19.3), (11.3%, 95% 9.0-14.0) . 711 60.0% (95% 47.6-71.2) , 3.2% (95% 1.1-9.6) , 5.9% (95% 2.6-12.8) 0.8% (95% 0.1-5.1) , 30.1% (95% 21.0-41.1) ( 50).

    50. 7 11

    . , 28.6% (95% 12.4-53.1) 82% (95% 65.2-91.7) (: 7, 51).

    53.3

    82

    40 28.6

    75

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    51. 7 11 ,

    3.2%

    5.9%0.8%

    30.1% 660.0%

  • 86

    68.9% (95% 53.4-81.1) 71.8% (95% 57.5-82.7) . 711 , (65.9%, 95% 52.2-77.4), (73.2%, 95% 59.8-83.4) .

    4.2.4 ,

    711 48.6% (95% 43.9-53.4) , 46% (95% 40.5-51.7) 5.3% (95% 3.4-8.4) . ( 57).

    57. 7 11 ,

    95% 95% 95%

    226 55.8 46.0-65.1 38.9 29.5-49.3 5.3 2.9-9.4

    241 74.7 67.2-81.0 22.0 15.8-29.8 3.3 1.5-7.0

    239 39.7 33.5-46.3 53.6 44.9-62.0 6.7 3.2-13.5

    256 30.5 21.5-41.1 59.8 46.7-71.6 9.8 5.8-16.1

    245 40.4 30.7-51.0 54.7 42.4-66.4 4.9 1.6-13.9

    ( 52).

    32.6 33.348.7

    64.583.7

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    7 8 9 10 11

    52. 7 11 ,

    , 78 32.6% (95% 24.1-42.4) 33.3% (95% 26.8-40.4) 1011 64.5% (95% 56.6-71.7) 83.7% (95% 71.2-91.4) .

    , ( 58).

    58. 7-11 ,

    95% 95% 95%

    641 45.3 39.1-51.6 48.4 41.3-55.6 6.3 4.0-9.7 566 52.5 47.5-57.5 43.2 37.7-49.0 4.3 2.2-8.1

  • 87

    , (46.5%, 95% 39.6-53.5), (52.5%, 95% 46.2-58.8) .

    . 24.5% (95% 18.5-31.6) , 33.5% (95% 28.2-39.3) , 3.7% (95% 2.2-6.3) , 36.8% (95% 30.4-43.7) ( 53).

    53. 7 11

    , , ( 59).

    59. 7 11 ,

    95% 95% 95% 95% 95%

    226 24.6 15.1-37.5 6.3 2.5-15.0 2.4 0.8-6.9 22.2 13.7-34.0 44.4 28.4-61.7 241 22.2 15.8-30.3 1.7 0.5-5.0 1.1 0.3-4.2 57.3 47.3-63.5 17.8 11.3-26.8 239 24.2 14.1-38.3 6.3 2.3-16.2 0 - 15.8 8.4-21.5 53.7 39.3-67.5 256 7.7 3.0-18.5 0 - 0 - 20.5 11.3-34.3 71.8 57.8-82.5 245 29.3 15.9-47.5 4.0 1.4-11.2 0 - 27.3 17.1-40.5 39.4 25.4-55.4

    , 71.8% (95% 57.8-82.5) , 711 17.8% (95%11.3-26.8) . , 7.7% (95%3.0-18.5) .

    711 3 1 34.3% (95% 28.9-40.2) , , 0.7% (95% 0.3-1.7) ( 54).

    )

    24.5%

    3.7%0.7%

    33.5%0.9%

    36.8%

  • 88

    24.2 18.2 27.4 26.5491.1 0.5

    0.839.1 42.7 32.5 35.619.8

    36.8 39.1 38.3 37.4 30.3

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    7 8 9 10 11 54. 711 ,

    11 (49%, 95% 32.3-66.0) (=0.04).

    30.5% (95% 21.3-41.6), 24.4% (95% 18.4-31.7) . , . 711 14.3% (95% 11.2-18.0) , , 75.1% (95% 70.6-79.1) ( 60). 60. 711 ,

    ,

    95% 95% 95%

    126 11.9 7.0-19.5 69.0 51.5-82.4 19.0 7.3-41.4 180 20.6 13.7-29.6 65.0 59.2-70.3 14.4 9.6-21.2 95 12.6 8.3-18.8 85.3 78.4-90.2 2.1 0.3-14.0 78 19.2 10.6-32.3 62.8 45.6-77.3 17.9 10.2-29.6 99 9.1 5.2-15.5 84.8 76.0-90.8 6.1 2.9-12.4

    , 20.6% (95% 13.7-29.6) .

    7 , (2.3%, 95% 0.5-9.1) (p=0.05) (: 8, 55).

    2.318.4 16.8 17.7 9.9

    86.174.6 71.2 70.5 81.7

    11.7 7 12 11.8 8.4

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    7 8 9 10 11

    55. 711 ,

  • 89

    , 12.9% (95% 9.0-18.2), 16.4% (95% 11.9-22.2) .

    4.2.5

    1207 , .

    711 7.3% (95% 5.8-9.2) . I 7.1% (95% 7.7-20.7), II 0.3% (95% 7.7-20.7) ( 61).

    61. 711 ,

    I II

    95% 95% 95%

    226 9.3 6.2-13.7 0 - 9.3 6.2-13.7

    241 12.0 7.9-17.9 0 - 12.0 7.9-17.9

    239 5.4 3.5-8.5 0.4 0.1-3.0 5.9 3.6-9.3

    256 7.0 5.3-9.3 0.4 0.1-2.8 7.4 5.7-9.6

    245 4.5 2.4-8.4 0.4 0.1-2.8 4.9 2.8-8.6

    (12.0%, 95% 7.9-17.9) , (4.5%, 95% 2.4-8.4) .

    ( 56).

    79.1

    4.68.7 7

    02468

    10

    7 8 9 10 11

    56. ,

    711 , ( 62).

    62. 711 , ,

    I II

    95% 95% 95%

    641 6.5 4.4-9.4 0 - 6.5 4.4-9.4

    566 7.7 5.7-10.5 0.6 0.2-2.1 8.3 6.2-11.0

    625 6.9 4.9-9.8 0.3 0.1-1.6 7.3 5.2-10.0

    582 7.3 5.4-9.8 0.2 0.0-1.5 7.5 5.5-10.1

  • 90

    II 0.6% (95% 0.2-2.1) .

    4.2.6

    1120 , , , .

    711 171.2/ - (100.0-199.9/) . 57- .

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    ,

    57. , /

    57- 711 100/ . . , 187.1/ (95% 172.5-203.3), 155.0 / (95% 144.4-168.6) .

    100 / ( 63).

    63. 711 ,

    , /

    (

  • 91

    100 / . , 18.2% (95% 14.2-23.0), 30.6% (95% 24.9-37.0) .

    711 1207 , , . 711 11.7% . 711 , .

    () III 2007 711 , . 711 27.4 , 129.0 . 27.7, 129.2 . 2007 .

    19921995, 1999, 2004, 2007 . 19962010 3 . .

    711 , , . , 711 11.8 , 48.6 . 2007 ( 58).

    26.7

    78.2

    11.8

    48.6

    0

    20

    40

    60

    802007

    2010

    58. , 7 11 ,

    711 7.3 . 2004 III 6.5 , 19921995 4 ( 59).

  • 92

    29.2

    21.4

    13.8 12.8

    7.4

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    7.3

    59. 7-11 ,

    . . 100 / . 171.2 / III , 2007 ( 60).

    96.8

    151.8171.2

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    ,/

    60. 7-11 (/),

    . .

    2004 2007 . , , ( 64).

  • 93

    64. ,

    , , %

    (0-99,9 /)

    (100-299,9 /)

    (300/)

    , , III , 2004

    59652.9 41.0 6.2

    , 2007

    83230.4 60.3 9.3

    IV , 2010

    112022.9 55.0 22.1

    100 / . , .

    . . . 8 . , . . , - . 9.

    1. 711 92.4 , 3.3 , 4.3 .

    2. 711 10 1 , , 1.6 .

    3. 711 11.8 , 48.6 , 2007 14.9 29.6 .

    4. 711 7.3 1995 4 .

    5. 711 171.2 / .

    8 Braverman L. E et al., Iodine and the thyroid 33 years of study, Thyroid, 1994, 4:351-356.9 Dai G., Levy O., Carraco N., Cloning and characterization of the thyroid iodide transporter. Nature, 1996, 379: 458-460

  • 94

    4.3.

    4.3.1. ,

    17-46 975 . 189, 194, 198, 200 .

    61. ,

    20-29 ( 61).

    1.6

    5.2

    8.2

    4.5

    3.5

    65.6

    65.5

    64.9

    64.2

    68

    29.1

    26.7

    26.4

    28.8

    26

    3.7

    2.6

    0.5

    2.5

    2.5

    0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

    15-19 20-29 30-39 40-49

    62. , ,

    40-49 , 15-19 , 15-19 , 40-49 . 20-29, 30-39 ( 62).

    65. ,

    13 1.0 150 13.9

    27 2.2 - 24 3.2

    60 5.0 88 10.1

    160 13.5 95 11.5

    385 40.4 / 117 13.4

    / 29 2.4 35 4.8

    301 35.5 192 15.6

    272 27.4

    2 0.2

    15-19 ,4.5%

    20-29 ,66.3%

    30-39 ,26.8% 40-49 ,

    2.3%

  • 95

    78.3% , 8.2% , , ( 65).

    66.

    59 5.7

    724 72.6

    29 2.9

    2 0.1

    2 0.2

    159 18.5

    , . 5.7% ( 66).

    2.37 (95% 2.26-2.49) ( 67).

    67. ,

    ,

    ( )

    324 33.1 0-12 112 12.5

    2-4 572 58.8 13-22 301 32.0

    5 78 8.1 23 562 55.5

    , ( 68).

    68.

    975

    971

    973

    927

    532

    4.3.2.

    , , , , , , . .

    973 ( 63).

  • 96

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    11 12 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

    ()

    ( )

    63.

    27.1 (95% 26.8-27.3) . 24-28 56.3%, 34-40 2.4% .

    22 - ( ) 2.1% (95% 1.3-3.5) (p

  • 97

    69. ,

    95%

    259 10 3.4 1.7-6.7 714 14 1.8 1.0-3.3

    1.9 , .

    4.3.3.

    971 . 15 (1.9%) 1 20 .

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

    ()

    ( / )

    65. 10, /

    ( 65).

    26.5% (95% 23.2-30.1) .

    66. ,

    0.1% (95% 0.1-0.8) , 8.5% (95% 6.7-10.8) , 17.9% (95% 15.2-20.9) ( 66).

    - ,0.1%

    - ,8.5%

    - ,17.9%

    - ,73.5%

    10

  • 98

    37.6% ( 70).

    70. , ,

    ,

    95%

    189 54 28.6 22.8-35.1 - 12.2 16.4 194 73 37.6 29.3-46.7 0.5 14.4 22.7 194 32 16.5 11.6-23.0 - 3.6 12.9 198 39 19.8 13.1-28.7 - 8.1 11.7 200 51 25.9 20.1-32.7 - 6.6 19.3

    498 114 24.0 19.9-28.7 - 6.4 17.6 473 135 31.0 26.0-36.5 0.3 12.3 18.4

    . (X 90).

    . (0.3%, 95% 0.0-2.1) . (12.3%, 95% 4.4-9.3)- (6.4%, 95% 9.3-16.2) . (X 70).

    , ( 71)

    71. ,

    -

    ,

    95% 15-19 45 10 26,4 14.5-43.1 0 9.2 17.1

    20-29 638 166 26.6 22.6-30.9 0 8.2 18.4

    30-39 266 64 25.5 20.1-31.8 0.4 8.5 16.6

    40-49 22 9 39.5 19.7-63.5 0 18.5 21.0

    40-49 . 30-39 .

    , ( 72)

  • 99

    72. , ,

    -

    ,

    95%

    323 74 25.4 20.0-31.7 - 7.1 18.42-4 570 156 27.9 23.9-32.2 0.2 8.8 18.95 77 19 21.9 12.3-35.9 - 13.3 8.6

    ( )0-12 111 7 4.6 1.8-11.3 - 0.9 3.713-22 299 69 24.3 18.2-31.5 - 4.8 19.523 560 172 32.6 28.2-37.3 0.2 12.2 20.2

    . 12 (p

  • 100

    4.3.4. , : 63 (6.9%, 95% 5.0-9.5) 1-10 . 28.8% (95% 25.1-32.8) 11-59, 11.4% (95% 8.9-14.4) 60-89, 6.4% (95% 4.9-8.3) 90-200 , 46.6% (95% 42.5-50.8) 11-200 .

    ( 67).

    47.1 44.3 47.9

    60.1

    44.5

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    67. ,

    45.8% (95% 40.1-51.6), 48.2% (95% 42.6-53.7) . ( 74).

    74. ,

    ,

    , 11-59 60-89 90-200

    95% 95% 95% 95%

    , 0-12 112 6.8 2.5-17.3 0.7 0.1-5.2 0 - 7.5 0.3-17.7

    13-22 301 25.0 20.0-30.9 5.9 3.4-9.9 2.0 0.9-4.6 32.9 26.9-39.5

    23 561 36.0 30.4-42.0 17.0 13.1-21.8 10.5 8.1-13.4 63.5 57.7-68.9 ,

    < 260 27.6 21.8-34.2 12.0 8.1-17.3 5.3 3.0-9.2 44.8 37.2-52.6

    715 29.2 24.8-33.9 11.2 8.2-15.1 6.8 5.1-9.0 47.2 42.3-52.0

    (p

  • 101

    - : 14 (1.0%, 95% 0.6-1.8) 1-10 . 8.2% (95% 6.2-10.7) 11-59, 2.6% (95% 1.7-4.0) 60-89, 1.1% (95% 0.5-2.4) 90-190 , 11.9% (95% 10.1-16.4) 11-190 .

    - (p

  • 102

    15.5% (95% 8.9-25.4), 7.1% (95% 2.3-19.6), 1.0% (95% 0.2-4.0) .

    42.1% (95% 37.6-46.7) , , 21.0% (95% 17.2-25.3) , . 38.6% (95% 34.4-42.8) , 24.1% (95% 19.9-28.9) . , . 2.4% , . , 25.0% (95% 20.2-30.6), 27.7% (95% 23.7-32.0) .4.3.5.

    (median) 150-499 / 11. 69- .

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 420 440 460 480 500 520 550 580 600+

    ,

    69. , /

    151.5 / (150/) . ( 70).

    128.9 135.5186.7

    139.7182.9

    0.0

    50.0

    100.0

    150.0

    200.0

    250.0

    ,

    /

    70. (/),

    70- , , . . ( 155.3/, 149.3/) .

    11 WHO, UNICEF, ICCIDD, Assessment of iodine deficiency disorders and monitoring their elimination, Third edition, Page 33.

  • 103

    46.8% (95% 42.5-51.2) 150 /- , . (: 10).

    4.3.6.

    . 532 , , . , .

    72.3% (95% 68.7-75.7) . , ( 76).

    76. ,

    95% 95% 95%

    189 97.9 94.7-99.2 2.1 0.8-5.3 0 - 194 83.5 78.4-87.6 16.5 12.4-21.6 0 - 194 62.9 50.1-74.1 37.1 25.9-49.9 0 - 198 17.2 11.2-25.5 82.8 74.5-88.8 0 - 200 73.5 67.0-79.1 26.0 20.2-32.8 0.5 0.1-3.5

    . , 74.3% (95% 68.4-79.5), 70.6% (95% 66.1-74.7) . 70 ( 71).

    72.7 73.2 70.1 70.9

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    15-19 20-29 30-39 40-49

    71. ,

    500 . . 8.5 (95% 7.9-8.9) . (12.0, 95% 10.3-13.6) (: 11, 72).

  • 104

    ( )

    12.09.1 7.3 8.9 7.5

    0.0

    3.0

    6.0

    9.0

    12.0

    15.0

    ,

    72. (),

    , , 16.0 (95% 14.0-17.9) . (: 11, 73).

    14.8 16 16.110.8

    17.3

    0

    4

    8

    12

    16

    20

    24

    ,

    73. (),

    86- 10.8 (95% 9.0-12.5) . , .

    , ( 77).

    77. (), ,

    () 95%

    275 15.7 12.9-18.4

    257 16.4 13.9-18.8

    15 29 384 16.5 14.5-18.5

    30 49 148 14.6 10.4-18.7

    15.7 (95% 12.9-18.4), 16.4 (95% 13.9-18.8) .

  • 105

    4.3.7.

    : , , , . 59.5% (95% 54.7-64.1) , 39.5% (95% 34.9-44.4) , 1% (95% 0.4-2.5) ( 78).

    78. ,

    95% 95% 95%

    189 47.1 38.3-56.0 51.9 43.2-60.4 1.1 0.1-7.3 194 58.2 46.0-69.5 40.7 29.8-52.7 1.0 0.3-4.0 194 53.1 45.6-60.5 45.9 38.6-53.3 1.0 0.3-4.0 198 53.5 45.6-61.3 46.0 38.1-54.1 0.5 0.1-3.6 200 68.0 58.9-75.9 31.0 22.8-40.5 1.0 0.1-6.9

    , .

    (: 12, 74).

    44.957.6 66.3 63.6

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    15-19 20-29 30-39 40-49

    74. ,

    , 1519 44.9% (95% 28.3-62.8), 20 29 57.6% (95% 52.1-63.0), 3049 60 .

    16.7 (=0.005) ( 79).

    79. ,

    95% 95% 95%

    501 65.5 59.2-71.4 33.8 27.8-40.4 0.6 0.1-4.5 474 48.8 42.1-55.6 49.6 43.0-56.2 1.6 0.7-3.5

    11.6% (95% 8.1-16.3) , 76.7% (95% 71.8-81.0) , 2.2% (95% 1.1-4.3) 9.1% (95% 6.6-12.4) ( 75).

  • 106

    75.

    ( 80).

    80. ,

    95% 95% 95% 95%

    189 22.5 13.1-35.8 58.4 45.0-70.7 2.2 0.2-7.4 16.9 8.7-30.2

    194 7.1 3.3-14.5 86.7 80.0-91.4 2.7 0.9-7.4 3.5 1.4-8.9

    194 9.7 5.4-16.8 77.7 68.4-84.8 1.0 0.1-6.6 11.7 6.1-21.0

    198 12.3 5.9-23.7 63.2 51.5-73.6 0 - 24.5 16.0-35.6

    200 11.8 6.0-21.9 77.9 68.4-85.2 3.6 1.1-7.6 6.6 3.3-13.0

    (86.7%, 95% 80.0-91.4) . 24.5% (95% 16.0-35.6) .

    4049 90% (95% 70.2-97.2) . (: 13, 76).

    47.3

    79.6 72.990

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    15-19 20-29 30-39 40-49

    76. ,

    , , 77.8% (95% 71.3-83.1), 74.2% (95% 66.4-80.7) ( 81).

    ( )

    11.6%

    76.7%

    2.2%0.5%

    9.1%

  • 107

    81. ,

    95% 95% 95% 95%

    315 11.2 6.9-17.7 77.8 71.3-83.1 2.4 1.0-5.3 8.1 5.3-12.4

    232 12.3 7.7-19.2 74.2 66.4-80.7 1.8 0.6-5.0 11.3 7.1-17.5

    : 92% (95% 89.6-93.9) , 7.1% (95% 5.3-9.5) , 0.9% (95% 0.4-1.8) . , ( 82).

    82. ,

    95% 95% 95%

    189 89.4 82.8-93.7 8.5 4.5-15.5 2.1 0.7-6.6

    194 87.6 80.2-92.6 11.9 7.1-19.2 0.5 0.1-3.7

    194 93.3 87.8-96.4 5.7 2.8-11.1 1.0 0.3-4.0

    198 89.4 81.9-94.0 9.1 5.1-15.6 1.5 0.5-4.5

    200 95.0 90.6-97.4 4.5 2.2-9.0 0.5 0.1-3.5

    75.1% (95% 70.9-78.8) , 4.7% (95% 3.2-6.9) , 10.8% (95% 8.2-14.3) , 8.4% (95% 0.1-0.9) ( 77).

    77.

    (82.6%, 95% 74.5-88.5) (60.4%, 95% 49.9-70.0) (66.1%, 95% 59.0-72.6) ( 83).

    83. ,

    95% 95% 95% 95% 95%

    169 60.4 49.9-70.0 3.0 1.3-6.5 1.8 0.4-7.4 17.2 10.6-26.6 17.8 12.3-24.9

    170 71.2 62.3-78.7 6.5 3.4-11.9 1.2 0.3-4.6 15.9 10.6-21.6 5.3 2.6-10.5

    181 75.7 65.8-83.5 7.2 4.3-11.7 0.6 0.1-3.9 6.7 2.9-12.4 9.9 6.0-16.1

    177 66.1 59.0-72.6 2.3 0.7-7.1 0.6 0.1-4.0 13.6 9.3-19.3 17.5 11.9-25.1

    190 82.6 74.5-88.5 3.7 1.4-9.3 0.5 0.1-3.7 8.4 4.1-16.6 4.7 2.7-8.1

    75.1%

    4.7%0.8%

    10.8%

    0.2% 8.4%

  • 108

    ( 78).

    66.3 74.3 78.4 75.7

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    15-19 20-29 30-39 40-49

    78. ,

    78- 20 4 3 . (12.1%, 95% 9.0-16.1) (6.4%, 95% 4.6-8.8) 1.9 ( 84).

    84. ,

    95% 95% 95% 95% 95%

    468 80.1 74.7-84.6 4.2 2.3-7.5 0.3 0.0-2.4 8.8 5.5-13.8 6.4 4.6-8.8

    419 65.6 59.0-71.7 5.6 3.6-8.5 1.7 0.7-3.9 14.7 11.0-19.4 12.1 9.0-16.1

    (80.1%, 95% 74.7-84.6) (65.6%, 95% 59.0-71.7) 103- (p=0.005).

    88.1% (95% 85.0-90.6) ( 79).

    79.

    (63.5%, 95% 51.7-73.8) ( 85).

    88.1

    0.9

    9.9

    1.1

  • 109

    85. ,

    95% 95% 95% 95%

    189 63.5 51.7-73.8 4.8 2.3-9.5 30.2 21.4-40.7 1.6 0.5-4.7 194 91.8 86.2-95.2 0 - 7.2 3.9-13.0 1.0 0.3-4.0 194 84.5 75.7-90.6 1.5 0.5-4.5 13.4 8.4-20.6 0.5 0.1-3.6 198 94.9 90.5-97.4 0.5 0.1-3.6 2.0 0.8-5.1 2.5 0.9-6.7 200 94.0 87.7-97.2 5.0 2.2-10.8 0 - 1.0 0.3-3.9

    (30.2%, 95% 21.4-40.7) . . (p=0.003) ( 86).

    86. ,

    95% 95% 95% 95%

    501 91.5 87.3-94.4 0.5 0.2-1.2 7.2 4.6-10.9 0.9 0.3-2.6

    474 82.1 76.6-86.5 1.7 0.8-3.5 14.7 10.9-19.6 1.5 0.7-3.0

    , 9.4 105- . .

    82.3% (95% 73.4-88.7) , 10.8% (95% 5.8-19.3) , 5.4% (95% 2.2-12.9) ( 80).

    80.

    87.4% (95% 83.5-90.5) , 11.6% (95% 8.6-15.5) , 0.6% (95% 0.2-1.4) ( 87).

    ( ) (

    5.4%0.6%

    10.8%

    0.9%

    82.3%

  • 110

    87. ,

    95% 95% 95% 95% 95%

    189 77.0 66.5-85.0 18.2 11.0-28.5 3.7 1.3-10.4 0.5 0.1-3.8 0.5 0.1-3.8

    194 91.2 82.5-95.8 8.8 4.2-17.4 0 - 0 - 0 -

    194 87.6 72.6-95.0 11.9 4.6-27.3 0.5 0.1-3.6 0 - 0 -

    198 91.4 83.3-95.8 8.1 4.2-15.1 0 - 0.5 0.1-3.6 0 -

    200 87.8 81.0-92.4 11.7 7.2-18.4 0 - 0 - 0.5 0.1-3.6

    1 . 503 (95% 477.0-528.9) ( 81).

    700.5539

    402.8522.1 463.8

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    ,

    81. (),

    81- . .

    4.3.8.

    , , . 58.5% (95% 54.4-62.4) . 40.2% (95% 35.5-45.1) ( 88).

    88. ,

    95% 95%

    189 119 63.0 54.6-70.6 90 47.6 38.6-56.8 194 112 57.7 50.4-64.8 77 39.7 31.5-48.5

    194 120 61.9 51.7-71.1 84 43.3 35.3-51.7 198 105 53.0 47.0-59.0 58 29.3 23.0-36.5 200 114 57.0 49.2-64.5 78 39.0 29.6-49.3

    . , ( 82).

  • 111

    24.539.1 46.6

    28.5

    0102030405060

    15-19 20-29 30-39 40-49

    82. ,

    34.9% (95% 31.0-39.0) , . 28.3% (95% 22.5-34.9), 40.2% (95% 32.3-48.6) . , 34.6% (95% 29.5-39.9), 35.5% (95% 29.6-41.8) .

    (n=387) . , , , , , , , ( 89).

    89.

    95%

    3 0.7 0.2-3.1

    108 28.2 22.3-35.0

    76 20.5 14.6-27.9

    , 111 30.7 24.7-37.5

    99 26.8 20.5-34.2

    84 23.7 17.4-31.3

    55 15.9 11.0-22.3

    ( , ) 3 1.2 0.4-3.9

    83- .

    16.7 31.2 35.7 31 26.90

    20

    40

    60

    83. ,

  • 112

    (50%, 95% 34.2-65.8) (: 14, 84).

    11.1 11.7 50 3.4 16.70

    10203040506070

    84. ,

    , 48.8% (95% 34.1-63.8), 33.3% (95% 22.4-46.3) . , (: 14, 85).

    18.9 20.8 48.8 19 33.30

    10203040506070

    85. ,

    ,

    60.7% (95% 45.3-74.2) (: 14, 86).

    10 15.6 60.7 13.8 24.40

    20

    40

    60

    80

    86. ,

    , , 8.6% - 26.9% . 32% (95% 27.6-36.8)

  • 113

    , 6.3% (95% 4.6-8.7) ( 90).

    90. ,

    95% 95%

    189 32 16.9 10.8-25.5 9 4.8 2.5-8.9 194 65 33.5 25.4-42.7 10 5.2 2.7-9.7 194 72 37.1 30.0-44.8 8 4.1 2.3-7.3 198 55 27.8 21.3-35.3 12 6.1 3.7-9.8 200 69 34.5 25.6-44.6 17 8.5 5.1-14.0

    , . , . , .

    . 7.1% (95% 5.2-9.6) ( 87).

    5.3 13.4 7.7 7.1 40

    5

    10

    15

    20

    87. ,