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National Security Policy Survey of the Literature

INTELLIGENCE

Robert David SteeleOSS CEO

bear@oss.net

Updated 19 August 2002

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Plan of the Brief

• You have 150 books in the lecture handout.

• Will only cover 50 or so of them now.

• Complete text reviews for over 350 books are at OSS.Net, at Amazon, and in the red and green books

• Information• Intelligence• Emerging Threats• Strategy & Structure• Blowback, Dissent &

International Relations• US Politics, Leadership

& the Future of Life

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Relevant Readings on Intelligence

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Fuld on Business Intelligence

• Discipline of business intelligence knows more than we do about economic “open sources & methods”

• They don’t understand the process of intelligence, nor are they expert at cultural intelligence

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Klavans & Ashton on S&T

• Private sector intelligence efforts are “fragmented” and in their infancy

• Too few know how to find the patterns and they do not get much help from technology

• We are missing the boat in terms of following foreign R&D

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Gilad on Blindspots

• All top managers tend to get information that is late, filtered, incomplete, or biased

• It is possible to create a professional intelligence system in the private sector, using only open sources.

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Australian Best Practices

• Analytic tradecraft is alive and well in some sectors.

• Australians have some best practices in both strategic and tactical intelligence that can improve government analysis.

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Cleveland on Higher Education

• Intelligence can be, should be, a form of “higher education” for both policy makers and the public

• A comprehensive strategic view is vital, both in and out of government, and that is what should be higher about higher education.

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Kerr on University

• Per Alfred North Whitehead, any society that "does not value trained intelligence is doomed”

• University should elevate lower education, rationalize IT to link business with knowledge, create distance learning, and nurture mid-career, continuing education

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Alvarez on Spies in Vatican

• Religions “do” intelligence and counterintelligence

• Some do this better than others

• Governments need to penetrate and understand all religions

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Allen on Lesson of Viet-Nam

• Intelligence generally got it right (strategic, tactical)

• Ambassadors and Generals in Saigon cooked the books

• Policymakers in DC refused to listen to intelligence inconsistent with their beliefs

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Herrington on Traitors Among Us

• Civilian “mafia” within Army often undercuts intelligence effectiveness

• We do have traitors, it is very difficult to first pet them and then catch them in the act overseas

• Interagency cooperation does produce results

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Levine on DEA Failures

• “Suits” assure the failure of effective street operations

• Inter-agency rivalry’s do great damage

• CIA creates monsters as it works fringes of drug networks

• State & White House let Mexico run rampant

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Reibling on FBI-CIA Rivalry

• War between FBI and CIA goes back to Hoover era

• Refusing to share information is a deeply embedded two-way street

• Congress undermines counterintelligence (Barney Frank example)

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Trulock on Failed Labs

• Energy labs are giving up all our advanced nuclear and other secrets

• Political interference is preventing proper counterintelligence

• Our “friends” are the worst offenders

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Baer on Clandestine Failure

• We do not have a global clandestine infrastructure against terrorism

• Too reliant on liaison• Don’t have the

languages• Culture diluted down

to office bureaucrats

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Gertz on 9-11 Breakdown

• Administrations ignored the earlier attacks

• DIA: bureaucracy• CIA: politically correct• FBI: lost its way• Congress: destructive• America not serious

about terrorism

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Godson on Covert Action & CI

• Covert Action and Counterintelligence are neglected elements of intelligence

• Covert action offers a range of policy options

• Counterintelligence is offensive defense

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Matthias on Mind-Sets

• Mind-sets are killing us--military mind-set focusing on technology; policy mind-set focusing on traditional state threat; intelligence mind-set focusing on secrecy and loyalty instead of accuracy and relevance

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Wheaton on Warning• Warning solution includes

– Casting wide early net

– Surging on potential hotspots

– Getting senior’s attention

• Options decrease as conflict escalates--seniors need to focus on crisis prevention rather than crisis management

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Scales on Firepower-Intelligence

• Inaccurate maps mean inaccurate fire

• Naval fire support a lost art--and new platforms not configured for shore fires

• Firepower advantage is meaningless if intelligence cannot find and fix locations fast and correctly

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Beesly on OpIntel “Plots”

• 24/7 “plot” allows for on the fly evaluation of sources in real-time ops context

• Submarine behavior can be predicted (terrorists like subs?)

• Negative reports matter greatly

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Bamford on OPSEC• Those that practice OPSEC can

defeat our technical collection systems across the board

• We do not practice OPSEC and our opponents know how to exploit this every single day

• NSA still does not have a computer that can beat a human brain in weight, energy needs, and calculation speed

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Berkowitz & Goodman on Truth• Non-state actors and their

issues need more attention• Must focus on priorities,

minimize hardware investments, draw on private sector to fullest extent possible

• Must abandon bureaucratic model in favor of virtual community model

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Johnson on New Targets• Community does not exist--

only an archipelago of isolated fragments

• Intelligence producers and intelligence producers have lost touch with real world open sources

• 20% of the IC budget could be cut (Woolsey said this too)

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Treverton on Public Intelligence

• New intelligence paradigm must focus on filtering vast quantities of open source information, and on analysis

• Spies must focus very narrowly on vital secrets

• Most intelligence should be public and shared

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Odom on Fixing Intelligence

• DCI does not understand details of the various agencies

• NRO can give up $6B• CIA and DIA should

be eliminated (do not agree but must address his concerns)

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Herman on War & Peace

• components and boundaries, effects, accuracy, and evaluation

• long-term intelligence (mostly open sources, improve state behavior)

• short-term espionage (tends to be intrusive and inspire target state's hostility)

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Herman on Information Age

• "The best test of an intelligence system is the all-source memory it builds up..."

• "The problems of counter-terrorist intelligence cannot be solved just by throwing money at them."

• Sub-state targets, multi-lateral cooperation, open sources...

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Steele on Redirection

• Comprehensive review of shortfalls at strategic, operational, tactical, and technical levels

• Identifies $11.6 billion a year in necessary cuts

• Would restore that money for new initiatives--change will not happen without hit

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Steele on New Craft

• Reality requires public appreciation if public action is to be correct

• Public must demand intelligence and be able to create its own intelligence

• Most intelligence can be done with open sources & methods

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Peacekeeping Intelligence

• Can’t do peacekeeping without intelligence

• UN continues to be against intelligence

• There are success stories, and obstacles

• US benefits if it helps UN with coalition intelligence endeavors