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Page 1: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.
Page 2: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.
Page 3: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.
Page 4: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

“ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next ten years— the way the world thinks about economic

problems. ”

-- John Maynard KeynesThe book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and

Money, systematically analyzed the relationship between changes in aggregate expenditure and changes in GDP.

In any particular year, the level of GDP is determined mainly by the level of aggregate expenditure.

Page 5: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.
Page 6: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

Actual and Potential GDPPotential output :

Maximum sustainable output level consistent with the economy’s resources,

(on the production possibilities curve.)Actual and potential output will be equal when the

economy is at full employment.

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Here we illustrate both actual and potential GDP.

Note the gap (shaded area) between actual and potential GDP during periods of recession.Historically Speaking

Real GDP(billions of 2000 $)

1970recession

1974-75recession

1980recession

1982recession

1990-91recession

2001recession

1960recession

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

10,000

PotentialGDP

12,000

ActualGDP

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Aggregate Supply and Potential GDP

• Aggregate supply (AS) slopes up, because as the price level for outputs rises, with the price of inputs remaining fixed, firms have an incentive to produce more and to earn higher profits.

Page 9: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

In the long run, the level of real GDP is determined by the number of workers, the capital stock, and the available technology, none of which are affected by changes in the price level.

Changes in the price level do not affect the level of real GDP.

The level of real GDP in the long run is called potential GDP, or full-employment GDP.

PriceLevel

Goods & Services(real GDP)

LRAS

YF

Page 10: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

PriceLevel

Goods & Services(real GDP)

LRAS1

YF,1

LRAS2

YF,2

a. Minimum wageb. Public policy

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PriceLevel

Goods & Services(real GDP)

SRAS

a. Firms are often slower to cut wages than raise them

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PriceLevel

Goods & Services(real GDP)

SRAS1 SRAS2

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a. Expected higher reduces supply

b. Expected lower increases supply

Page 14: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

a. If workers and firms are adjusting to prices being higher than expected the curve will shift left.

b. If they are adjusting to prices being lower than expected the curve will shift right.

Page 15: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.
Page 16: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

An unexpected event that causes the SRAS to shift.

Page 17: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

1. How will each of the following factors influence aggregate supply in the Short Run: (a) An increase in real wages. (b) 4 hurricanes that destroy half of the

orange crop in Florida.(c) An increase in the expected rate of

inflation.(d) An increase in the world price of oil.(e) Abundant rainfall during the growing

season.

Vote a for an increase in Aggregate Supply

Vote b for a decrease in Aggregate Supply

Page 18: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

Aggregate Demandfor Goods & Services

• Aggregate demand (AD) curve: shows the various quantities of domestically produced goods & services that purchasers are willing to buy at different price levels .

• The AD curve slopes downward to the right, indicating an inverse relationship between the amount of goods & services demanded and the price level.

Page 19: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

Goods & Services(real GDP)

PriceLevel

AD

P2

Y1 Y2

P1

Aggregate Demand Curve• When the

general price level in the economy declines from P1 to P2,

• the quantity of goods and services purchased will increase from Y1 to Y2.

A reduction in the price

level will increase the quantity of goods & services demanded.

Page 20: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

1. The Wealth Effect: A lower price level increases the purchasing power of the fixed quantity of money.

2. The Interest Rate Effect: a lower price level will reduce the demand for money and lower the real interest rate, which then stimulates additional purchases during the current period.

3. The International Trade Effect: A lower price level will make domestically produced goods less expensive relative to foreign goods.

Page 21: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

• Each of these factors tends to increase the quantity of goods & services purchased at the lower price level.

• A lower price level will1. increase the wealth of people holding the fixed quantity of money,2. lead to lower interest rates, and 3. make domestic goods cheaper relative to foreign goods.

Goods & Services(real GDP)

PriceLevel

AD

P2

Y1 Y2

P1

A reduction in the price

level will increase the quantity of goods & services demanded.

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Goods & Services(real GDP)

PriceLevel

AD0

AD1

AD2

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a. Monetary policylowering interest rates

reduces the cost of borrowing and increases consumption and investment.

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b. Fiscal policychanges in government purchases

shifts the aggregate demand curve by changing the G component. Changing taxes affects the C component.

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a. Optimism shifts the curve rightb. Pessimism shifts the curve leftc. Stock prices, world events affect

expectations

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Source: http://www.economagic.com.

Consumer Sentiment Index:A Measure of Optimism 1978-2007

• Consumer optimism and pessimism regarding the future of the economy.

• Note how the index turns down prior to (or during) the recessions of the period.

Consumer Sentiment Index

100

80

60

40

20

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 20041996 1998 2000 20020

120

2006

Page 27: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

a. Foreign economic growth-Increased income shifts the

curve right-Decreased income shifts the

curve left-The large the trade sector, the

larger the effect

Page 28: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

b. Exchange rates-Appreciation shifts the

curve right-Depreciation shifts the

curve left

Page 29: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

Effect of Shifts in AD

• In the Keynesian zone, small shifts in AD, will affect the output level Yk, but will not much affect the price level

• In the neoclassical zone, small shifts in AD, will have relatively little effect on the output level Yn, but instead will have a greater effect on the price level.

• In the intermediate zone movement in AD to the right will affect both the output level and the price level.

Page 30: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

2. How will each of the following factors influence aggregate demand in the United States: (a) An increased fear of recession. (b) An increased fear of inflation.(c) The rapid growth of real income in

Canada and Western Europe.

(d) A reduction in the real interest rate.(e) A higher price level (be careful).(f) A stock market decline.

Vote a for an increase in Aggregate Demand

Vote b for a decrease in Aggregate Demand

Page 31: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

AD105 Price Level

SRAS105

6,900 90 4,5006,600 95 4,8006,300 100 5,1006,000 105 5,4005,700 110 5,7005,400 115 6,000

1. What will be the GDP?

2. Will it be long-run equilibrium?3. What will be the relationship between

the actual and natural rates of unemployment?

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AD105 Price Level

SRAS105

6,300 90 4,5006,000 95 4,8005,700 100 5,1005,400 105 5,4005,100 110 5,7004,800 115 6,000

1. What will be the GDP?

2. Will it be long-run equilibrium?3. What will be the relationship between

the actual and natural rates of unemployment?

4. Will this GDP be sustainable?

Page 33: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

• Start with Equilibrium, then increase LRAS (How?).

PriceLevel

LRAS1

YF1

P100

Goods & Services(real GDP)

AD

SRAS1

YF2

LRAS2

P95

SRAS2

• Both LRAS and SRAS increase full employment output expands from YF1 to YF2.• A sustainable, higher level of real output is the result.

Page 34: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

• Prices are high relative to production costs• Unanticipated increase in AD.• Supply shock

• Increased output is unsustainable

Page 35: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

PriceLevel

LRAS

YF Y2

P100

AD2

Goods & Services(real GDP)

AD1

Short-run effects of an unanticipatedincrease in AD

SRAS1

P105

• Improves profits.

• Output increases

• Unemployment drops below the natural rate,

Page 36: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

AD2AD1

PriceLevel

P105

YF Y2

P105

Goods & Services(real GDP)

Long-run effects of an unanticipatedincrease in AD

SRAS2

P110

YF

LRAS SRAS1

• Resource prices will rise. (SRAS shifts)• Output will recede to the long-run

potential.

Page 37: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

• Prices are low relative to production costs• Unanticipated decrease in AD.• Supply shock

• Causes losses, so production decreases

Page 38: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

PriceLevel

LRAS

YFY2

P100

Goods & Services(real GDP)

AD1

Short-run effects of an unanticipatedreduction in AD

SRAS1

AD2

P95

• Profits fall.• Output decreases

• Unemployment rises,

Page 39: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

AD2AD1

PriceLevel

LRAS

YFY2

P100

Goods & Services(real GDP)

Long-run effects of an unanticipatedreduction in AD

SRAS1

P95

SRAS2

P90

YF

• Resource prices adjust down. (SRAS shifts)

• Output will recede to the long-run potential.

Page 40: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

• Prices fall• Output increases• But conditions return to normal SRAS

shifts back

Due to some favorable supply shock

PriceLevel

LRAS

YF Y2

P100

Goods & Services(real GDP)

AD

SRAS1

SRAS2

P95

Page 41: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

Quantity of resourcesQ2

D

Pr2

Q1

S1

ResourceMarket

Pr1

S2

• An adverse supply shock, (crop failure or oil price increase)

Decrease in SRAS

• prices rise from Pr1 to Pr2.

PriceLevel

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AD

PriceLevel

YFY2

P100

Goods & Services(real GDP)

P110

• The higher resource prices shift SRAS to the left• the price level rises to P110 and output falls to Y2.• What happens in the long-run depends on whether the supply

shock is temporary or permanent.

LRASSRAS1 (Pr1 )

SRAS2 (Pr2 )

Decrease in SRAS

Page 43: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

PriceLevel

LRAS

YFY2

P100

Goods & Services(real GDP)

AD

SRAS1 (Pr1 )SRAS2 (Pr2 )

P110

• If temporary, resource prices fall in the future, shifting SRAS2 back to SRAS1, returning equilibrium to (A).• If permanent, the productive potential of

the economy will shrink (LRAS shifts left and Y2 becomes YF2) and (B) will become the long-run equilibrium.

A

B

Decrease

in SRAS

Page 44: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

How Long Does It Take to Return to Potential GDP? Economic Forecasts Following the

Recession of 2007–2009

Page 45: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

Price Level, Inflation, and the AD-AS ModelThe actual price level will also differ from the

level people anticipated when the rate of inflation differs from what is expected.

When the inflation rate is greater than anticipated, profit margins will be attractive and business firms will respond with an expansion in output.

When the inflation rate is less than anticipated, profit margins will be unattractive and businesses

will reduce their output.

Page 46: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

A. A widespread fear of depression on the part of consumers.

B. A large purchase of American wheat by Russia.

E. A 10 percent reduction in personal income taxes.

D. The complete disintegration of OPEC, causing oil prices to fall by one-half.

C. A cut in Federal spending for health care.

F. An increase in labor productivity.G. Depreciation in the international value of the

dollar.H. A decline in the percentage of the American labor force which is unionized.

Which way will the AS or AD curves move after:

Page 47: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

LRAS

Goods & Services(real GDP)

Price level

Y F

SRAS

Y F

AD

PPrice level

Employment

GDP

A. A widespread fear of depression on the part of consumers.B. A large purchase of American wheat by Russia.E. A 10 percent reduction in personal income taxes.

D. The complete disintegration of OPEC, causing oil prices to fall by one-half.

C. A cut in Federal spending for health care.

F. An increase in labor productivity.

G. Depreciation in the international value of the dollar.

H. A decline in the percentage of the American labor force which is unionized.

Page 48: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

Recessions:

Source: Derived from computerized data supplied by FAME Economics.

• Expansion and contraction in the U.S. economy since 1960.

• Reductions in real GDP in the top graph relate with increases in the rate of unemployment above the natural rate (bottom graph).

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

9,000

19601970

1974-751980198219902001

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

2 %4 %6 %8 %

10 %

% Labor force unemployed

Real GDP (billions of 1996 $)

Actual rate ofunemployment

Natural rate ofunemployment

Page 49: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

1. Which of the following would be most likely to cause an increase in current aggregate demand in the United States?a. increased fear that the U.S. economy was going into a recessionb. an increase in the real interest ratec. sharp increase in the value of stocks owned by Americansd. a recession in Canada, Mexico, and Western Europe

2. Which of the following will most likely accompany an unanticipated increase in aggregate demand?a. an increase in real outputb. an increase in unemploymentc. a decrease in real GDPd. a decrease in the demand for resources

3. In the aggregate demand/aggregate supply model, when the output of an economy is less than its long-run potential, the economy will experiencea. declining real wages and interest rates that will stimulate employment and real output.b. rising interest rates that will stimulate aggregate demand and restore full employment.c. a budget surplus that will stimulate demand and, thereby, help restore full employment.d. rising real wages and real interest rates that will restore equilibrium at a higher price level. 

Page 50: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

4. Which of the following will most likely result from an unanticipated decrease in aggregate supply due to unfavorable weather conditions in agricultural areas?

a. a decrease in inflationb. a decrease in unemploymentc. an increase in the general level of pricesd. an increase in the natural rate of

unemployment5. Which of the following will most likely increase aggregate supply in the long run?

a. unfavorable weather conditions in agricultural areas

b. an increase in the expected inflation ratec. higher real interest ratesd. an increase in the rate of capital formation

6. Within the AD/AS model, an unanticipated increase in short-run aggregate supply will cause real output to

a. increase and the general level of prices to fall.b. decrease and the general level of prices to rise.c. increase and the general level of prices to rise.d. decrease and the general level of prices to fall.

Page 51: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

7. An increase in the long-run aggregate supply curve indicates that

a. the natural rate of unemployment has increased.

b. unemployment has increased.c. the general level of prices has increased.d. potential real GDP has increased.

8. If the general level of prices is lower than business decision makers anticipated when they entered into long-term contracts for raw materials and other resources, which of the following is most likely to occur?

a. an economic boomb. highly attractive profit marginsc. output less than the economy’s long-run

potentiald. a sharp increase in imports

 9. When output is less than the economy’s long-run capacity, which of the following is most likely to occur?

a. an abnormally low rate of unemploymentb. reductions in real interest rates and real

resource pricesc. a sharp increase in importsd. a government budget surplus

Page 52: “ I believe myself to be writing a book on economic theory which will largely revolutionize—not, I suppose, at once but in the course of the next.

10. Suppose there was a sharp reduction in stock prices and a sharp increase in the world price of crude oil. Within the framework of the AD/AS model, how would these two changes influence the U.S. economy?

a. The lower stock prices would increase SRAS, and the higher crude oil prices would reduce AD; as a result, there would be downward pressure on the general level of prices.

b. The lower stock prices would reduce SRAS, and the higher crude oil prices would increase AD; as a result, there would be upward pressure on the general level of prices.

c. The lower stock prices would increase AD, and the higher crude oil prices would increase SRAS; as a result, output would tend to increase.

d. The lower stock prices would reduce AD, and the higher crude oil prices would reduce SRAS; as a result, output would tend to decline.


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