Housing Financial Stress in Australia: An initial analysis of households reporting payment...
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Transcript of Housing Financial Stress in Australia: An initial analysis of households reporting payment...
Housing Financial Stress in Australia: An
initial analysis of households reporting
payment difficulties
Scott BaumGriffith University
Jung Hoon HanUniversity of New South Wales
Outline
Background to this study
Australian State of Play
Households reporting housing payment difficulties
Background
Part of a broader study Looking at the impacts of the post-GFC economic
and social structure on performance of local communities and households
Study in Employment vulnerability during the GFC One of the impacts we hypothesised was a potential
change or shift in the patterns/ makeup of households suffering housing financial stress
Background
Australian research
General media interest
Australians for affordable housing
Fujitsu consulting ‘stress-o-meter’
Fujitsu consulting ‘stress-o-meter’
Households with low paid blue collar or service sector jobs, living in urban fringe localities, low education and non-Anglo ethic background
Fujitsu consulting ‘stress-o-meter’
New home purchasers on new estates with low value housing
Fujitsu consulting ‘stress-o-meter’
Younger households concentrated in lower ses, higher than average density suburbs employed in vulnerable jobs
Fujitsu consulting ‘stress-o-meter’
Account for 60% of households estimated to be in mortgage stress
Causes of stress
Change in stress
Changes in stress
Geography of stress
Our preliminary work
On the back of this existing data we want to know: What are the patterns of housing financial stress
(esp in the post-GFC world) Are we seeing different / new patterns What are the patterns of people transitioning into
and out of stress
Our preliminary work
Data: Household Income and Labour Dynamics Australia
(HILDA) survey Possible indicators
Housing payments : income ratios Could not meet repayments
Since January 200x did any of the following happen to you because of a shortage of money? b) Could not pay the mortgage or rent on time
Our preliminary work
Treated the data sets as cross sectional Longitudinal (transitions)
Considered Demographic and other patterns Major life changes Undertaken preliminary regressions
Cross section analysis
The 2009 data
Stressed 6.3
Generation y 19.8
Generation x 48.3
Baby Boomers + 31.9
Couples 15.6
Couples with Children 28.2
Single parents 19.8
Mortgage 37.7
Private renter 53.8
Separate house 76.0
Flat/ unit 16.1
Life changes 2009Stressed Not Stressed Total
Worsen finances 20.2 3.8 4.8*
Fired 9.2 3.7 4.1*
Separated 13.2 3.7 4.3*
Got Married 3.7 2.0 2.1
Got back together 2.1 1.2 1.2
Got pregnant 9.5 5.3 5.5*
Gave birth 6.3 3.3 3.5*
Got injured 11.9 9.0 9.2*
Family member injured 22.7 14.5 15.0*
Death of spouse 1.1 0.9 0.9
Went to jail 1.3 0.2 0.3*
Retired 2.4 2.6 2.6
Changed jobs 20.8 10.8 11.5*
Promoted 4.2 5.4 5.4
Improved financial position
3.2 3.0 3.0
Moved house 28.8 16.8 17.5
Proportion households recording payment problems
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
5
10
15
20
25
OwnersPrivate rentersPublic rentersTotal
Proportion of households reporting payment difficulties who have recorded
life change
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
5
10
15
20
25
FinanceEmployment Relationship
Financial security/ problems
couldn't raise $3000 in an emergency
I think I am poor or very poor
asked family for financial healp
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
stressednot stressed
Financial security/ problems
went without meals pawned or sold something couldn't pay utility bill couldn't heat home0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
stressedSeries2
stressed =1
Worse finance 5.03* 4.75*
Separated 2.64* 1.55*
Lost job 1.64* 1.62*
Pregnancy 1.62 1.58
Birth 1.37 1.09
Injury 1.09 1.17
Family injury 1.53* 1.52*
Changed jobs 1.48* 1.23
Moved 1.49* 0.92
Separate house 1.27 1.28
Private renter 1.94* 1.83*
Mortgage 0.64* 0.65*
Single parent 1.75* 1.61*
Couple with kids 1.03 1.03
Couple 0.87 0.89
Generation y 2.57* 2.49*
Generation x 3.49* 3.38*
Low income 2.39* 2.20*
Transitions
Proportion of households by transition type
2001_02 2002_03 2003_24 2004_05 2005_06 2006_07 2007_08 2008_090
1
2
3
4
5
6
Stressedmove_inmove_out
Percentage of households by number of events
None one two three to five six to nine0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
80.1
9.6
4 4.71.6
Life changes by transition 2008-2009Stressed Moved into stress Moved out of stress Total
Worsen finances 19.9 18.3 9.3 4.8*
Fired 7.1 9.2 6.7 4.0*
Separated 12.2 11.8 6.6 4.4*
Got Married 3.5 3.2 1.9 1.8
Got back together 2.8 1.9 1.9 1.1
Got pregnant 6.4 10.3 7.1 4.7*
Gave birth 5.0 6.4 3.9 2.9*
Got injured 13.5 12.2 16.2 7.8
Family member injured
31.2 19.9 18.2 12.7*
Death of spouse 1.4 0.6 0.0 0.8
Went to jail 0.7 0.0 0.6 0.2
Retired 1.4 2.6 2.6 2.3
Changed jobs 19.1 22.4 16.2 9.7*
Promoted 5.0 1.9 8.4 4.5*
Improved financial position
5.7 1.9 0.6 2.5*
Moved house 29.8 25.6 27.9 14.9
Financial security/ problems
couldn't raise $3000 in an emergency
I think I am poor or very poor asked family for financial healp0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
stressedinto stressout of stress
Financial security/ problems
went without meals pawned or sold something couldn't pay utility bill couldn't heat home0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
stressedinto stressout of stress
Stressed t 1 and t 2 =1
Worse finance 3.89* 3.41*
Separated 2.31* 1.08
Lost job 1.14 1.11
Pregnancy 0.92 0.78
Birth 1.55 1.03
Family injury 2.27* 2.31*
Promoted 0.83 0.76
Changed jobs 1.52~ 0.99
Improve finance 1.93~ 2.16~
Separate house 0.83 0.82
Private renter 4.7* 3.92*
Mortgage 1.44 1.16
Single parent 2.1* 2.10*
Couple with kids 1.26 1.39
Couple 0.85 0.86
Generation y 2.75* 3.13*
Generation x 5.45* 5.06*
Low income 2.07* 2.01*
Into stress Stressed t 2 =1
Worse finance 3.79* 3.29*
Separated 2.37* 1.42
Lost job 1.45 1.48
Pregnancy 1.87~ 1.89~
Birth 1.22 1.11
Family injury 1.26 1.22
Promoted 0.30* 0.31*
Changed jobs 1.89* 1.51~
Improve finance 0.67 0.76
Separate house 1.62* 1.73*
Private renter 1.92* 1.69
Mortgage 0.78 0.75
Single parent 1.28 1.28
Couple with kids 0.88 0.79
Couple 1.02 0.99
Generation y 2.21* 2.06*
Generation x 2.88* 2.63*
Low income 2.11* 1.94*
Out of Stress t 2 =1
Worse finance 0.19 0.22
Separated 1.35 0.88
Lost job 1.39 1.38
Pregnancy 1.38 1.14
Birth 0.85 0.72
Family injury 1.21 1.20
Promoted 1.70* 1.60
Changed jobs 1.35 1.00
Improve finance 1.89~ 1.69~
Separate house 1.41 1.40
Private renter 1.35 1.25
Mortgage 0.49* 0.43
Single parent 1.51 1.74*
Couple with kids 1.34 1.46
Couple 1.72* 1.71*
Generation y 1.55 1.98*
Generation x 2.09* 2.43*
Low income 1.83* 1.93*
Some brief conclusions
Some potentially interesting patterns
Still (way) more analysis to do Investigate in more detail transitions Possibly use a pooled data set (pooled across
waves) Introduce some aggregate housing market variables
The end……..