© Fraunhofer ISI Patrick Plötz, Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe SÜD Heidelberg, November 2011 FUTURE...
-
Upload
ariana-wade -
Category
Documents
-
view
219 -
download
3
Transcript of © Fraunhofer ISI Patrick Plötz, Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe SÜD Heidelberg, November 2011 FUTURE...
© Fraunhofer ISI
Pa t r i c k P l ö t z , Fr a u n h o f e r I S I , K a r l s r u h e
S Ü D H e i d e l b e r g , N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 1
ELECTRIC CARS – VEHICLES OF THE FUTURE?
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 2
Myth: “E lec t r i c veh i c les a re use less – they can ’ t go fa r. ”
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 3
Typical daily driving distances are short.
• Most (80%) of day-travels are shorter than 60 km.
• Few (8 %) of day-travels are longer than 130 km
Myth: “E lec t r i c veh i c les a re use less – they can ’ t go fa r. ”
Source: Mobilitätspanel, Fraunhofer ISI
Plug-in-HybridProperty Gasoline vehicle
3 minutes + 2 hours
> 700 km
3 minutes
50 + 600 kmRange
Refueling Duration
every day + When necessary
Every 2 weeksRefueling Frequency
Battery electric vehicle
0.5 - 8 hours
< 150 km
Every 3 days or 30% every day
Plug-in-hybrid electric vehicles can also go long distances Electr ic vehic les
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 4
Myth: “E lectr ic vehic les can help in tegrat ing renewable energ ies , but they need so much e lectr ic i ty . ”
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 5
Take 1 Million electric vehicles,
• giving on average 10 kWh = 10 GWh = 10 minutes of the average German electricity need
• Loading with 3,7 kW each = 3,7 GW= 2.4% of installed German power (155 GW in 2009)
Electricity need of 1 million vehicles:
• Driving 14 300 km per year (German average) and using 16 kWh/100 km = 3 TWh/a = 0.5% of annual German electricity use
Large fleet of electric vehicles offers some power but small capacity
Myth: “E lectr ic vehic les can help in tegrat ing renewable energ ies , but they need so much e lectr ic i ty . ”
Source: BDEW, Fraunhofer ISIDrawing: Heyko Stöber
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 6
Myth: “Electr ic vehic les need publ ic charging points .”
Click icon to add picture
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 7
Click icon to add picture
Myth: “Electr ic vehic les need publ ic charging points .”
Source: Mobilitätspanel, Fraunhofer ISI
Charging at home: cheap & easy
• The majority of car users has a fixed place for his/her car (either a garage or a place at home)
• Even in larger cities (>100.000 inhabitants) only some people (22% in Germany) have no fixed parking place
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64
Sh
are
of
veh
icle
s t
hat
can
be o
pera
ted
as b
att
ery
ele
ctr
ical
veh
icle
Battery capacity (in kWh)
At home, at work, and in public regular (3.7kW)
At home, at work, and in public threephase (11.1kW)
At home and at work threephase (11.1kW), in public high power charging (43.6kW)
Series12
At home and at work regular (3.7kW)
At home regular (3.7kW), at work threephase (11.1kW)
At home regular (3.7kW), at work threephase (22.2kW)
At home and at work threephase (11.1kW)
At home and at work threephase (22.2kW)
Series13
Regular power outlet (230V, 16A, 3.7kW)
Threephase current (400V, 16A, 11.kW)
Threephase current (400V, 32A, 22.2kW)
24 kWh
+ in
pu
bli
c+
at
wo
rkA
t h
om
e
Plug-in-hybrid electric vehicles can also go long distances
To start a mass market, no expensive infrastructure needed
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 8
Overview
Electric cars – vehicles of the future?
3 Past and Present of electric vehicles
4 The Future of eletric vehicles
5 Conclusion
2 Motivation: Do we need electric vehicles?
1 Introduction: Electric vehicle myths
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 9
A growing mobi l i ty demand faces l imited fossi le resources
Source: Shell, WBCSD
Growing demand for
oil cannot be covered
sustainably
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 10
The EU‘s long term goal is to reduce GHG emissions by 80%
Power production and road transport have to become almost CO2-free
This is impossible with efficiency gains in combustion engines
New technologies and concepts are clearly needed.
Electric vehicles powered by renewable energies can contribute significantly
To achieve Europe‘s c l imate targets , a drast ic reduct ion in t ransport CO2-emiss ions is needed
Source: www.roadmap2050.eu
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 11
Electric vehicles locally produce less noise and emissions
They create a calmer and cleaner local environment
But their production is very energy consuming
Electr ic vehicles can reduce emissions and noise in your local environment
BEV small
PHEV medium
ICE small
ICE medium
Diesel medium
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
electricty generation vehicle production
vehicle use fuel production
accidents noise
External and environmental costs
Electric vehicles
Source: Fraunhofer ISI
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 12
Overview
Electric cars – vehicles of the future?
4 The Future of electric vehicles
5 Conclusion
1 Introduction: Electric vehicle myths 2 Motivation: Do we need electric vehicles? 3
Past and Present of electric vehicles:How do they work? What do they cost?
Do we need special charging stations?Are they “green”?
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 13
The fi rst road vehicle achieving a speed of more than 100 km/h
The French electric vehicleLa jamais contente with 105 km/h in 1899
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 14
Invention of electric vehicle 1834 Large market shares around 1900
Short History of electr ic vehicles
steam
electric
gasoline
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
american car production by 1900
number of units
First hybrid by Ferdinand Porsche in 1899
Gasoline vehicles cheaper and faster from 1920 until today
Renewed interest in 1980s after oil crises
Today‘s batteries allow longer ranges
Thomas Edison with electric car in 1913Sources: Chan 2007, wikipedia
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 15
motorcycles3,83 Mio.7,52%
Busses76 Tsd. 0,15%
trucks4,43 Mio.8,71%
Others0,26 Mio. 0,52%
gasoline30,5 Mio.60,0%
Diesel11,3 Mio.22,14%
Gas490 Tsd.0,96% Electric2,3 Tsd.0,005% Hybrid 40 Tsd. 0,073%
80 % of vehicles are passenger cars: 30 million gasoline, 11 million diesel
Currently, 2300 Electric vehicles and 40,000 hybrids
German vehicle stock in 2011
Vehicles in Germany
Source: Kraftfahrtbundesamt (2011),
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 16
How does an electr ic vehicle work?
Battery electric vehicle: Small number of main components:
• Electric motor
• Large battery
• AC/DC converter
• Electronics...
No oil or fuel tank No exhaust system (tail pipe etc.) Hybrid electric vehicle:
• Small combustion engine
• Small fuel tank
• Electronics
Fuel cell electric vehicle has an additional tank and fuel cell
Electric vehicle ≈ several wheels and a plug Source: Bosch AG
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 17
The energy dens i ty o f current bat ter ies sets l imi ts to the use o f e lec t r i c veh ic les
Quelle: GM, 2009
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 18
A few manufacturers are already producing electric vehicles
Electr ic vehicles produced in 2010
Numbers are really tiny compared to world vehicle production of 78 million units in 2010
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 19
Alternative fuel vehicles already available or announced for 2011 – 2014 by major manufacturers in the German market
When can we buy eletcr ic vehicles?
Manufacturer Hybrid Gas-hybrid
Plug-in Hybrid
Battery electric
Fuel cell vehicle
Total
MERCEDES5 1 4 1 11
TOYOTA 3 1 2 3 9VW 3 5 8RENAULT
7 7BMW 3 1 2 6HYUNDAI
1 1 1 1 4CITROEN 2 1 3PEUGEOT
1 2 3AUDI 1 2 3NISSAN 2 1 3Total 20 2 5 29 2 57
Simple hybrids already
availableOnly some plug-in
hybrids announced
Many battery electric vehicles
underway
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 20
Electr ic vehicles come in a broad variety
Plug-in hybrid passenger car
Small electric vehicles
Plug-in hybrid LDV
Battery LDVs
Elektroroller
Sports cars
today
soon
Off-road duty vehicle
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 21
Example for the total life cycle costs for a battery electric vehicle with average annual German driving range (14000 km, no tax, 2015):
Long driving distances required to make BEVs economically attractive Battery and fuel costs are the main drivers for total cost of ownership (TCO)
How much does an electr ic vehicle cost?
Quelle: Fraunhofer ISI
Fuel
Vehicle purchase
Battery costs
Maintenance
Cost
s in
cent
per
kilo
mete
r
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 22
Political actions:
Non-financial incentives
Support by the German government on electr ic mobi l i ty
No direct purchase support Research funding: 2 million € No car tax (below 50 gCO2/km) low tax for commercial cars Target: 10% of governmental vehicles
Use of bus lanes for EVs Free city entry
1 million
by 2020
Quelle: Regierungsprogramm Elektromobilität 2011
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 23
In the beginning, electr ic vehicles wi l l mainly target a niche market
Share of City Traffic
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
17,500
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
An
nu
al M
ileag
e (
in k
m)
Selection of Propulsion Technology - 2015(in relation to mileage and share of city traffic)
EVs only in some segments profitable
Attractive first user segments– Commuters– Second-car
users– Full time
employees from areas with less than 100,000 inhab.
Potential of up to 4% of car users (2015) in existing infrastructure - equivalent to 1.6 mn.
Battery ElectricVehicle
Internal CombustionEngine
Source: Own calculations
Trip LengthRestrictions
UtilizationRestrictions
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 24
EVs are the most effi cient propuls ion technology and can reduce CO 2 -emiss ions in t ransport
Note: BEV: Battery Electric Vehicle; RME: Raps-Methyl-EsterSource: Own calculations and LBST
Efficiency and Emissions of Different Propulsion Technologies
Em
issio
ns in
GH
G-E
qu
ivale
nts
(in
g/k
m)
Efficiency (Well-to-Wheel Analysis)0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
0
50
100
250
300
350
150
200
Coal-to-Liquid
ICE
Hydrogen Fuel Cell
Bio-diesel (RME)
Biofuels
Less e
mis
sio
ns
More efficient
Battery Electric Vehicle(Wind)
Plug-In Hybrid
(EU mix)
BEV(EU mix) Plug-In Hybrid
(Wind)
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 25
How „green“ are electr ic vehicles?
Electricity generation
Vehicle production
Battery production
Additional battery
Electric vehicles
Conventionalvehicles
GHG potential in tons CO2e
The production of batteries for electric vehicles is very energy intense
Depending on the electricity used, additional CO2 emissions from electricity generation need to be taken into account
With electricity from renewable sources drastic reduction of CO2 emissions are possible
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 26
Overview
Electric cars – vehicles of the future?
4 The Future of electric vehicles
5 Conclusion
1 Introduction: Electric vehicle myths 2 Motivation: Do we need electric vehicles? 3
Past and Present of electric vehicles:How do they work? What do they cost?
Do we need special charging stations?Are they “green”?
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 27
2020 2030 20400
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
Pluralism
Szenarios I/IV
Referenzszenario
Energiekonzept
Dominance
5%
50%
45%
Electric vehicles expected in 2020 (NPE, 2011)
Nutzfahrzeuge
PHEV
BEV
Market scenarios for Germany
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 28
The future of alternative fuels – various technologies for diff erent appl ications
high
distance
Vehicle weight
low
Short trips (city) Long trips (highway)
City LDVs
Electro cycle
2nd car
Long range public transportPublic
transport
transportation
Everyday use
acceptance
Battery vehicle
Plug-in hybrids
Fuel cell vehicles
2nd generation biofuels
safety
Energy density
Economy of fuel
challenges
Economy of propulsion system
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 29
Click icon to add picture
Depending on market penetration, charging infrastructure has to change
TimeCharging
InfrastructureInnovators´
Market
Niche Market(e.g. commuters, business clients)
MarketPenetration
Mass Market
Grid Integration
Control Time-of-use
rates Bi-directional
connection
Demand Side Management (Dynamic rates)
System Services Load shift and
active load leveling
Load shift (negative supply of balancing power)
Infrastructure
Norms and standards
Mainly private infrastructure
Selective public infrastructure to support early adoption
Smart Grids
Smart Metering Expansion of
semi- public charging infrastr.
Grid Integration with Increasing Market Penetration
Source: Own visualization
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 30
Conclus ions
2How much do
electric vehicles cost?
They are more expensive to buy but cheaper to drive than current conventional vehicles
Special charging stations are required later
3 Are electric vehicle green?
Electric vehicles can significantly reduce global and local emissions, but only when charged from renewable energy sources
Their production is very energy intense
1 What are electric vehicles?
Electric vehicles use electric motors and batteries and/or fuel cells
Many forms of hybrid vehicles are possible
Are electric vehicles the vehicles of the
future?
They can play an important role in transport and in reduction of CO2 emissions
Other vehicle technologies can be become important too, especially fuel cell vehicles
© Fraunhofer ISI
Seite 31
Special thanks to Martin Wietschel Fabian Kley Till Gnann Wolfgang Schade
Thank you for listening!
References:Biere, D.; Dallinger, D.; Wietschel, M.: Ökonomische Analyse der Erstnutzer-von Elektrofahrzeugen,
Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft 02/2009, 173-183.
Wietschel, M., Kley, F. und Dallinger, D. : Eine Bewertung der Ladeinfrastruktur für Elektrofahrzeuge, Zeitschrift für die gesamte Wertschöpfungskette Automobilwirtschaft, Bd. 12 (3), S. 33–41.
Kley, F., Dallinger, D. und Wietschel, M. : Assessment of future charging infrastructure, International Advanced Mobility Forum, 9-10 März 2010, S. 1–7. Genf.
Kley, F., Entwicklung und Bewertung einer Strategie für den Aufbau einer Beladeinfrastruktur für Elektrofahrzeuge auf Basis des Fahrverhaltens. Dissertation . Karlsruhe, 2011.
Thank you