© Crown copyright Met Office WMO CBS operational collection/display of seasonal (and sub-seasonal)...
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Transcript of © Crown copyright Met Office WMO CBS operational collection/display of seasonal (and sub-seasonal)...
![Page 1: © Crown copyright Met Office WMO CBS operational collection/display of seasonal (and sub-seasonal) forecasts Richard Graham, Met Office Hadley Centre.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062803/56649f4d5503460f94c6e5ce/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
© Crown copyright Met Office
WMO CBS operational collection/display of seasonal (and sub-seasonal) forecastsRichard Graham, Met Office Hadley Centre. With acknowledgements to all GPCs, LC-LRFMME, LC-SVSLRF and members of the WMO Expert Team on Extended and Long-range Forecasting (ET-ELRF)
WMO/THORPEX/WCRP sub-seasonal to seasonal implementation planning meeting, WMO HQ, Geneva,
2-3 December 2011
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© Crown copyright Met Office
Content
• CBS operational seasonal (and monthly) data exchange and products – GPCs, Lead Centres
Input on:
• Intra-seasonal applications
• Future CBS operational extended-range data exchange (in ET-ELRF terms of reference)
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© Crown copyright Met Office
WMO CBS coordination of centres producing long-range forecasts:Global Producing Centres (GPCs)
• 12 WMO-designated GPCs centres adhering to agreed procedures/standards in LRF – forming an integral part of the WMO GDPFS
• 2 Lead Centres, facilitating user access to GPC products
• Lead Centre for Long-range Forecast Multi-model Ensembles (LC-LRFMME) – jointly operated by KMA/NOAA NCEP
• Lead Centre for the Standard Verification System for Long-range Forecasts (LC-SVSLRF) – jointly operated by BoM/MSC
• Aim of this GDPFS infrastructure: improve access and usability of global LRF products to aid production of regional/national climate services
• Growing use at RCOFs and NCOFs
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© Crown copyright Met Office
GPC designation criteria
• have fixed production cycles and time of issuance;
• provide an agreed minimum set of long-range forecast products,
• 2m temp, precipitation, SST (averages of at least 1-month);
• any lead-time between 0 and 4 months.
• provide an agreed set of forecast quality measures (WMO Standard Verification System for LRF);
• provide up-to-date information on forecast methodology used;
• make products accessible to users (through website and Lead Centres)
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GPC name Centre System Configuration (ensemble size of forecast)
Resolution (atmosphere)
Hindcast period used
Beijing Beijing Climate Centre Coupled (48) T63/L16 1983-2004
CPTEC Centre for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies
2-tier (15) T62/L28 1979-2001
ECMWF European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts
Coupled (41) T159/L62 1981-2005
Exeter Met Office Hadley Centre
Coupled (42) 1.25°x1.85°/L38 1989-2002
Melbourne Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Coupled (30) T47/L17 1980-2006
Montreal Meteorological Service of Canada
2-tier (40) T32/T63/T95/2.0°x2.0° (4- model combination)
1969-2004
Seoul Korean Meteorological Agency
2-tier (20) T106/L21 1979-2007
Tokyo Japan Meteorological Agency
Coupled (51) T95/L40 1979-2008
Toulouse Météo-France Coupled (41) T63/L91 1979-2007
Washington National Centres for Environmental Prediction
Coupled (40) T62/L64 1981-2004
Moscow Hydromet Centre of Russia
2-tier (10) 1.1°x1.4°/L28 1979-2003
Pretoria South African Weather Service
2-tier (6) T42/L19 1983-2001
The 12 WMO-designated GPCs
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Data collected/processed/displayed by LC-LRFMME
• 1-month means for (at least) next 3-months; all ensemble members (forecast and hindcast);
• Variables:• 2m temperature
• SST
• Total precipitation
• MSLP
• 850 hPa temperature
• 500 hPa geopotential height
• Collected every month between 15th-20th. • Forecast displays updated on LC-LRFMME
website ~ 20-25th of month.© Crown copyright Met Office
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Products
• Individual GPCs
• Deterministic (ensemble mean anomalies)
• Multi-model (deterministic+):
• ensemble mean anomalies
• Nino plumes
• Model consistency (of anomaly sign)
• multi-model can be user defined
• Multi-model (probabilistic)
• Probabilities of tercile categories
• Subset of GPCs
© Crown copyright Met Office
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Lead Centre for Long Range Forecast Multi Model Ensemblehttp://www.wmolc.org
© Crown copyright Met Office
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Seasonal AND monthly products displayed on LC-LRFMME website
Dec Jan Feb
DJFGPC WashingtonEnsemble mean anomalies: pmsl(2011)
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GPC products from LC-LRFMME website:DJF 2010/11: ensemble mean pmsl anomaly
Exeter ECMWF Toulouse
Beijing
Washington
TokyoMelbourne
Seoul Montreal
Coupled systems
Un-coupled systems
Pretoria
‘Dynamic’ user-selectable domain
Same available for individual months
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Multi-model GPC products from LC-LRFMME website: DJF 2010/11, ensemble mean pmsl anomaly
Ensemble mean of 10 GPCs
Ensemble mean of 7 GPCs (coupled systems)
Ensemble mean of 3 GPCs (un-coupled systems)
multi-model subsets produced interactively from LC-LRFMME website
Presented at South East Europe Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SEECOF), 22-26 November 2010
2mT, precipitation, T850, Z500, SST and for individual calendar month periods
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Nino3.4 plumes
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GPC model consistency plots:Individual months:number of models with +ve /-ve anomalies
Z500 T850 PMSL
Precip 2mT SST
Dec 2011
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GPC model consistency plots:Individual months:number of models with +ve /-ve anomalies
Z500 T850 PMSL
Precip 2mT SST
DJF 2011
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Probabilistic products with subset of GPC providing hindcasts
Dec 2011
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Probabilistic products with subset of GPC providing hindcasts
DJF 2011
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Use at RCOFs: WMO Lead Centre information and final GHACOF consensus, SOND 2010
LC-LRFMME Model consistency
Statistical models + Forecaster judgement
Final consensus
Verification
Observed SON anomalies
25
40
35
35
25
40
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Summary – global LRF
• 12 WMO designated GPCs supply seasonal and ‘subseasonal‘ data
• 2 WMO Lead centres: dealing with standardised display/multi-modelling and forecast validation
• Deterministic products and probabilistic products
• In active use by RCCs, RCOFs, NMHSs (~123 registered users, 49 countries – as of early 2011)
• Probability products will form basis of prediction component of the WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU).
• Key plans (guided by the Expert Team for Extended and Long-range Forecasts) – in line with GFCS vision - include:
• verification of multi-model products
• Investigation/development of extended (monthly) range capability
• investigation/development of multiannual–to-decadal capability (decadal GPCs?)
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CSRP: consultation in Africa
0123456789
No
. o
f vo
tes Rank 1
Rank 2
Rank 3
Rank 4
Type and number of organisations interviewed Ranking of priorities
Questionnaire fielded to 9 climate service providers
Total of 52 interviews across 8 African countries
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Science component (3): Predicting onset timingbased on local time of arrival of 20% of long-term seasonal average
Average southward progression of rains with ITZC
observed
modelled
Skill of Met Office seasonal forecasts of ‘onset’ timing
early onset
late onset
orange/red =
‘good’ skill
Encouraging first results: trial onset forecasts have been provided to Regional Climate Outlook Forums ICPAC, ACMAD and SADC-DMC
Example:East Africa short-rains (OND)
Michael Vellinga
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Predicting onset timing: example Greater Horn of Africa short-rains season 2011 (OND) – prediction from Augustbased on local time of arrival of 20% of long-term seasonal average
Probability of early arrival
Probability of late arrival
Observed time of arrival
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Early thoughts on LC-LRFMME operational exchange
Strawman proposal for operational exchange:
• Coordinate research and operational exchanges with operational exchange a subset of research (delayed release) exchange?
• 2-weekly issues: first, with the release of LC-LRFMME seasonal forecast; second, 2 weeks later;
• Daily data to ~32 days; small number of essential variables;
• Products to be period means;
7 GPCs responded so far:
• 5 basically ‘yes’; 1 ‘too early’: 1 system not operational;
• Key issue: coordinating release date to get usefully short lead time, different GPCs have different release dates; should release date be fixed day of month or day of week?
• Some with data policy issues and other reservations (e.g. Timing of products)
© Crown copyright Met Office
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Thank you! Any questions?