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Class 17: Lomborg

P. Brian FisherCofC: POLS 405Spring 2010

+Vid

Lomborg,

“Our Priorities For Saving the World” (17m)

+Lomborg’s Arguments on Temperature Increase

Global Mean Temp is projected to increase 4.7°C by 2100; however, no one lives at this temperature.

Lomborg: True, there will be more heat deaths from GCC, but there will also be fewer cold deaths (more people die from cold than heat).

Many deaths are from heat-island effects in cities, and we can alleviate them, by planting more trees (to create more moisture) and by creating more reflective surfaces

+Lomborg on Kyoto

Temperature decrease from Kyoto measures would be 0.1°F by 2050 and 0.3°F by 2100—this is insignificant

Without a Post-Kyoto agreement, the effects from the 2008-2012 would only be reduce temp for 7 days.

Costs: could be as high as $180b/yr (based on 2008 data) or 0.5% global GDP

Lomborg: World will get more efficient as technology increases (e.g. In US, avg car has “improved its mileage by 67% since 1973.”

+ CAFE Standards 1978-2006

+Lomborg’s Costs of GCC

Cutting carbon dioxide costs about $20 per ton and it only does $2 worth of good. McKinnsey Cost Abatement: They concluded that we could

stabilize at 450ppm at zero net cost. At 450ppm, peaking now, would likely result in temp

increase of less than 3°C, and most likely about 2.5°C

Lomborg est that to stabilize at 2.7°C would require $84t.

Benefits wouldn’t outpace costs until 2250.

+ Lomborg’s Proposal

1. Massive investments in R&D Commit 0.05% of GDP Should be enough to keep temp from increasing beyond

5°F (from today).

2. Avoid emission cuts—waste of $$ b/c “global warming damages run about 1% GDP, while

cost is at 2% GDP Stern: Cost is 1% GDP while benefits are 20% (giving

increasing costs of inaction)

+Evidence suggests…

1. Understanding of GCC is shaped by exaggerated accounts by media

2. we are overly obsessed with regulating CO2—we should consider the positive effects from increased warming

3. GCC is not the only issue we need to tackle. There are other more important priorities.

+Other Issues and Facts

Every year…

4m die from malnutrition $12b could halve the deaths

3m from HIV/AIDS

2.5m from air pollution

2m from lack of clean drinking water

1m from malaria $13b would halve the # of deaths.

+Global Priority List from Lomborg’s Copenhagen Consesus

+Millennium Development Goals

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education

Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

Goal 4: Reduce child mortality

Goal 5: Improve maternal health

Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases

Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability

Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development