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CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 /

Public Attitude Survey:Public Attitude Survey:

““The Lebanese Choice of IdentityThe Lebanese Choice of Identity

Identifying with Lebanon vs. Identifying with the Religious Identifying with Lebanon vs. Identifying with the Religious Communities”Communities”

29 July – 1 August 200529 July – 1 August 2005

Public Attitude Survey:Public Attitude Survey:

““The Lebanese Choice of IdentityThe Lebanese Choice of Identity

Identifying with Lebanon vs. Identifying with the Religious Identifying with Lebanon vs. Identifying with the Religious Communities”Communities”

29 July – 1 August 200529 July – 1 August 2005




1. At a first glance, the results of the survey may come as a disappointment to many Lebanese. For the survey has found strong evidence of a deep crisis of identity among the people of Lebanon. It should be borne in mind, however, that this crisis reflects decades of weak national leadership, political uncertainty, decay, corruption, disrespect for the constitution and foreign domination. It also reflects the miserable conditions of the official justice, educational and welfare systems, as well as the major role, often financed by state funds, played by the religious establishments in education, social work, health services, justice and politics. Nevertheless, the results of the survey should be viewed as encouraging in that they point out to many significant causes of the identity crisis and some ways to deal with it.

2. In the worst case scenario, i. e. the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, the percentage of Lebanese who continue to hold to their choice of identity as Lebanon first is no less than 27.2%, which is greater than any one single religious community in the country.

3. In the alternative, i. e. in the event of the advent of the rule of law, with equal protection of the law among citizens and the existence of courts that dispense justice with integrity and without discrimination, the percentage of Lebanese who make their choice of identity as Lebanon first rises to 38.6%. Furthermore, this percentage climbs to 44.7% among urban persons whose family register is in Beirut (See Paragraph 6 herein below).




4. There is a direct relationship between the level of schooling and the percentage who adopt Lebanon first as their choice. The unanimous choice of the less educated, i. e. those with elementary schooling or less, is the religious community. This contrasts sharply with over two thirds of those with post graduate education who make their choice Lebanon first.

5. The average percentage of Christians whose choice is Lebanon first is 46.5% which is in contrast with the 25.7% average of Muslims. This goes in parallel with the average percentage of Christians who make their religious community the first choice, which is 20.7%, compared to 48.6% average for Muslims.

6. There is a significant difference between urban dwellers whose civil status register is in Beirut, where the percentage of those who make Lebanon first as their choice is 38.7% (climbing to 44.7% in the event of the rule of law and dropping to 30.1% in the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest), and those whose register is outside Beirut, who make 26.7% only (climbing to 30.1% under the rule of law and dropping to 23.6% in the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest).




7. The best case scenario for those who identify first with their religious community puts their percentage under 50%. So they never constitute a majority, and certainly not a unified block. In comparison, the Lebanese whose choice is Lebanon first constitute a more cohesive, though much under-represented, block and their percentage varies from 27.2% in the same scenario, the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, and 44.7% in the best case scenario (combining the rule of law and both residency and registration in Beirut).

8. It is therefore abundantly clear that meaningful and major reform will promote the choice of Lebanon first among the Lebanese if achieved in at least the following two areas: a) Upholding the rule of law through equal application of the law under an independent judiciary characterized with competence and integrity.b) Insuring the quality and reach of the national educational system from grade schools to university levels.




9. Any meaningful reform of the elections law should recognize, and duly respect, the above facts in many ways, largely:a) A clear majority of the Lebanese does not favor the religious solution to political representation.b) A significant percentage of the Lebanese refuses to be treated as supporters and willing subjects of the religious communities and makes Lebanon its clear choice.c) Voter registration in the actual place of residence may free the voters from ancestral communal allegiances and foster identification with Lebanon first.d) Hence, the Lebanese citizens who make their choice Lebanon first should not be deprived of their civil right to be represented democratically, outside the domination of the religious communal rules. The fair solution is to give every Lebanese the choice (1) to register for general elections in the place of his actual residence, and (2) to indicate, at the time of registration, his freely chosen first identity, whether national or religious, or both equally, and, consequently, to be enabled to elect his representatives in a voting system that respects his freely expressed choices and assures him of true democratic representation.




The SampleThe SampleThe SampleThe Sample




Description of the SampleDescription of the Sample

The survey was conducted from July 29 to August 1, 2005, among a sample of 600 respondents in the greater Beirut area

Males constituted 49.7% and females 50.3%

The Respondents Consisted of the following age groups:18-29 years old 39%30-39 years old 19.7%40-49 years old 16.3%50-59 years old 11.2%60-69 years old 8.8%Over 70 years old 5%

The percentage of those with civil register registration in Beirut constituted 61.3%

According to the level of schooling, the sample consisted of: Grade school or less: 1.2%; intermediate: 12.3%; secondary: 36.5%; college: 45.8%; post graduate: 1.6%; vocational: 2.6%.

The margin of error is + or- 1.5%

The Sample

18-29 years old, 39%

30-39 years old, 19.70%

40-49 years old, 16.30%

50-59 years old, 11.20%

60-69 years old, 8.80%

Over 70 years old, 5%




• The survey was conducted from July 29 to August 1, 2005, among a sample of 600 respondents in the greater Beirut area, consisting of the following age groups:

• 18-29 years old 39%• 30-39 years old 19.7%• 40-49 years old 16.3%• 50-59 years old 11.2%• 60-69 years old 8.8%• Over 70 years old 5%• Males constituted 49.7% and females 50.3%• The percentage of those with civil register registration in Beirut constituted

61.3%




6.4

22.3

34

37.3

0

10

20

30

40

Do you believe that you are Lebanese first or that your affiliation with your religious community comes before your Lebanese identity? (%)

Do you believe that you are Lebanese first or that your affiliation with your religious community comes before your Lebanese identity? (%)

Rule: 600

I identify with Lebanon first

I identify with my religious

community first

I identify with Lebanon and my

religious community equally

No response/ I do not know




27.2

17.6

48.8

38.6

25.4

29.6

22.3

34

37.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

The current status

In the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest

In the event of the rule of law with equal protection of the law and qualified courts that dispense justice with integrity andwithout discrimination

How the Choice of Identity Changes in the Following Cases (%)How the Choice of Identity Changes in the Following Cases (%)


I identify with my religious community first

I identify with Lebanon and my religious community

equally




Do you believe that you are Lebanese first or that your affiliation with your religious community comes before your Lebanese identity? (In Accordance with the Communities) (%)

Do you believe that you are Lebanese first or that your affiliation with your religious community comes before your Lebanese identity? (In Accordance with the Communities) (%)

Druze Shiite Sunni Armenian Orthodox

Melkite Orthodox Maronite

31.318.83113.654.551.149.3Lebanon First 62.94350.622.715.225.519.4Community First 2.923.817.154.524.221.326.1

Lebanon & Religious Community Equally

2.914.41.39.26.12.15.2No response/ I do not know

Do you believe that you are Lebanese first or that your affiliation with your religious community comes before your Lebanese identity? (In accordance with religions) (%)

Do you believe that you are Lebanese first or that your affiliation with your religious community comes before your Lebanese identity? (In accordance with religions) (%)

Muslim Christian

25.746.5I identify with Lebanon first

48.620.7I identify with my religious community first

18.427.8I identify with Lebanon and my religious

community equally

7.35No response/ I do not know




Do you believe that you are Lebanese first or that your affiliation with your religious community comes before your Lebanese identity? (In accordance with place of PS registration) (%)

Do you believe that you are Lebanese first or that your affiliation with your religious community comes before your Lebanese identity? (In accordance with place of PS registration) (%)

Other locations Beirut


44.433I identify with my religious community first

24.620.7I identify with Lebanon and my religious

community equally

4.37.6No response/ I do not know

Vocational Post-Grad. College Secondary IntermediateElementary

6.766.733.337.631.9-Lebanon First

26.633.336.73838.9100Community First

66.7-22.119.223.6-Lebanon & Religious Community Equally

--7.95.25.6-No Response

Do you believe that you are Lebanese first or that your affiliation with your religious community comes before your Lebanese identity? (In accordance with schooling level) (%)

Do you believe that you are Lebanese first or that your affiliation with your religious community comes before your Lebanese identity? (In accordance with schooling level) (%)




In the event of conflict between national interest and religious interest, does your following choice change?“I identify with Lebanon first” (%)

In the event of conflict between national interest and religious interest, does your following choice change?“I identify with Lebanon first” (%)

Rule: 204

Yes it changes33.8%

I do not know3.4%

No it does not change62.8%

76.8

23.2

0

20

40

60

80

100


I identify with Lebanon and my religious

community equally

If it changes, how does it change? (%)

Rule: 69




In the event of conflict between national interest and religious interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon first” (%) (According to religious communities)

In the event of conflict between national interest and religious interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon first” (%) (According to religious communities)



54.546.746.933.377.870.878.8No it does not change

45.553.344.966.722.225.019.7Yes it changes

--8.2--4.21.5I do not know



10093.886.450255061.5I identify with my religious community first

-6.213.650755038.5I identify with Lebanon and my religious

community equally

If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to religious communities)If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to religious communities)




In the event of conflict between national interest and religious interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon first” (%) (According to schooling level)

In the event of conflict between national interest and religious interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon first” (%) (According to schooling level)

VocationalPost-Grad.CollegeSecondary IntermediateElementary

10010084.672.762.5-I identify with my religious community first

--15.427.337.5-I identify with Lebanon & my religious community equally

If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to schooling level)If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to schooling level)


-83.369.753.856.5-No it does not change

10016.729.241.234.8-Yes it changes

--1.158.7-I do not know




In the event of conflict between national interest and religious interest, does your following choice change?“I identify with Lebanon first” (%) (According to the place of PS registration)

In the event of conflict between national interest and religious interest, does your following choice change?“I identify with Lebanon first” (%) (According to the place of PS registration)

Other locationsBeirut

73.580I identify with my religious community first

26.520I identify with Lebanon & my religious community equally

If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to the place of PS registration)If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to the place of PS registration)


40.472.5No it does not change

54.824.7Yes it changes

4.82.8I do not know




In the event of the upholding of the rule of law, i. e. if you come to believe that you enjoy the protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense

justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon first” (%)


justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon first” (%)

Rule: 12If it changes, how does it change? (%)

16.7

83.3

0

20

40

60

80

100


I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally

Rule: 204

Yes it changes5.9%

I do not know1.0%






justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon first” (%) (According to religious communities)


justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon first” (%) (According to religious communities)




100909633.388.991.795.5No it does not change

-10266.711.18.33Yes it changes

--2---1.5I do not know



-33.3100----I identify with my religious community first

-66.7-100100100100I identify with Lebanon & my religious community equally





justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon first” (%) (According to schooling level)


justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon first” (%) (According to schooling level)


VocationalPost-Grad.CollegeSecondaryIntermediateElementary

--40---I identify with my religious community first

100-60100100-I identify with Lebanon & my religious community equally


-10094.492.591.3-No it does not change

100-5.658.7-Yes it changes

---2.5--I do not know





justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon first” (%) (According to place of PS registration)


justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon first” (%) (According to place of PS registration)

If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to place of PS registration)If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to place of PS registration)


-28.6I identify with my religious community first





-1.4I do not know




In the event of the upholding of the rule of law, i. e. if you come to believe that you enjoy the protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination, AND in the event of a clear conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does

your previous choice change? (%)



Rule: 2


100

0

20

40

60

Rule: 2

Yes it changes 100.0%





I do not know70.0%


100

0

20

40

60

If it changes, how does it change? (%) Rule: 1

Rule: 10





In the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with my religious community first” (%)

In the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with my religious community first” (%)

Yes it changes16.1%

I do not know1.3% No it does not

change82.6%

5050

0

20

40

60


community equally



Rule: 36




In the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with my religious community first” (%) (According to religious communities)

In the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with my religious community first” (%) (According to religious communities)



602073.3100-25-I identify with Lebanon first

408026.7-10075100I identify with Lebanon & my religious community equally




22.77.218.8202033.315.4Yes it changes

-1.51.220---I do not know





In the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with my religious community first” (%) (According to schooling level)

In the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with my religious community first” (%) (According to schooling level)



--46.753.850100I identify with Lebanon first

10010053.346.250-I identify with Lebanon & my religious community equally



2533.315.31614.314.3Yes it changes

25---3.614.3I do not know




In the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with my religious community first” (%) (According to place of PS registration)

In the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with my religious community first” (%) (According to place of PS registration)




64.340.9I identify with Lebanon & my religious community equally




2.9-I do not know




In the event of the upholding of the rule of law, i. e. if you come to believe that you enjoy the protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with my

religious community first” (%)


religious community first” (%)

Rule: 53


35.8

64.2

0

20

40

60

80

Yes it changes23.7%

I do not know0.9%


Rule: 224







religious community first” (%) (According to religious communities)


religious community first” (%) (According to religious communities)



81.884.180-2058.369.2No it does not change

18.214.5201006041.730.8Yes it changes

-1.4--20--I do not know



1004043.8--4012.5I identify with Lebanon first

-6056.31001006087.5I identify with Lebanon & my religious community equally






religious community first” (%) (According to schooling level)


religious community first” (%) (According to schooling level)



-1004529.437.5-I identify with Lebanon first

100-5570.662.5100I identify with Lebanon & my religious community equally



5066.720.42128.642.9Yes it changes

--1--14.2I do not know





religious community first” (%) (According to place of PS registration)


religious community first” (%) (According to place of PS registration)



3239.3I identify with Lebanon first



74.876No it does not change

24.423Yes it changes

0.81I do not know








Rule: 2 If it changes, how does it change? (%)

5050

0

20

40

60

Rule: 19


No it does not change

89.5%

I identify with Lebanon & my religious

community equally




I do not know23.5%


100

0

20

40

60


Rule: 34






In the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally” (%)


16.1

83.9

0

20

40

60

80

100

If it changes, how does it change)%( ?Rule: 62


I identify with religious community first


I do not know10.5%

Yes it changes46.6%

Rule: 133




In the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally” (%) (According to religious

communities)

In the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally” (%) (According to religious

communities)



-28.948.141.762.55051.4No it does not change

10065.840.741.7253037.2Yes it changes

-5.311.216.612.52011.4I do not know

If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to religious communities) If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to religious communities)



-1218.2-50-30.8Lebanon first

1008881.81005010069.2Religious community first




In the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally” (%) (According to schooling level)

In the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally” (%) (According to schooling level)



--12.99.550-Lebanon first

100-87.190.550-Religious community first


50-393952.9-No it does not change

30-52.551.235.3-Yes it changes

20-8.59.811.8-I do not know





(According to the place of PS registration)


(According to the place of PS registration)



3.825Lebanon first

96.275Religious community first




8.811.8I do not know





justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally” (%)


justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally” (%)

Rule: 26


80.8

7.7 11.5

0

20

40

60

80

100



community first

I do not know/ No response

Yes it changes19.5%

I do not know4.6% No it does not

change75.9%

Rule: 133





justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally” (%) (According to religious communities)


justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally” (%) (According to religious communities)



10063.281.566.61009080No it does not change

-31.618.516.7-1014.3Yes it changes

-5.2-16.7--5.7I do not know




-66.610050-100100Lebanon first

-16.7-----Religious community first

-16.7-50---No response/ I do not know





justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally” (%) (According to schooling level)


justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally” (%) (According to schooling level)



100-8085.750-Lebanon first

--6.7-50-Religious community first

--13.314.3--No response/ I do not know


70-67.880.588.2-No it does not change

20-25.417.111.8-Yes it changes

10-6.82.4--I do not know





justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally” (%) (According to the place of PS registration)


justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally” (%) (According to the place of PS registration)



81.880Lebanon first

-13.3Religious community first

18.26.7No response/ I do not know


77.275No it does not change


3.55.3I do not know




In the event of the upholding of the rule of law, i. e. if you come to believe that you enjoy the protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination, AND the event of a clear conflict between national interest and religious

communal interest, does your previous choice change? (%)

In the event of the upholding of the rule of law, i. e. if you come to believe that you enjoy the protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination, AND the event of a clear conflict between national interest and religious

communal interest, does your previous choice change? (%)

Rule: 5


40 40

20

0

20

40

60

Rule: 21


I do not know23.8%

No it does not change

52.4%


community equally

I identify with Lebanon first I identify with my religious community first


Rule: 2


community first

I do not know/No response




Changes of Choice of Identity from Lebanon to other choices

* Case One: Conflict between national interest and religious communal interest

Ratio of the respondents who made their choice Lebanon first: 34%

Ratio of respondents who would change their choice in such event: 33.8%

Ratio of change from Lebanon first to other choices: 34% of 33.8%=11.5%

Hence the ratio of the Lebanon first choice becomes 34%-11.5%= 22.5%

Ratio of those wishing to change their identity choice to become Lebanon and their religious community equally: 23.2%

This increases the ratio of those who identify with Lebanon and their religious community equally by 23.2% of 11.5%=2.7%

Hence the ratio of those identifying with Lebanon and their religious community equally becomes: 22.3%+2.7%= 25%

Ratio of those wishing to change their identity choice to become their religious community first: 76.8%

This reduces the ratio of those who identify with Lebanon first by 76.8% of 11.5% =8.8%

Hence the ratio of those identifying with their religious community first becomes 37.3%+ 8.8%= 46.1%

The choices of identity thus becomeThe choices of identity thus become::

Lebanon first: 22.5%Lebanon first: 22.5%

Religious community first: 46.1%Religious community first: 46.1%

Lebanon and religious community equally:25%Lebanon and religious community equally:25%..




*Case Two: Upholding the rule of law, i. e. protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination

Ratio of change in such event from Lebanon first to other choices:5.9% of 34% =2%

Hence the ratio of the Lebanon first choice becomes 34%-2%= 32%

Ratio of those wishing to change their identity choice to become Lebanon and their religious community equally: 83.3%

This increases the ratio of those who identify with Lebanon and their religious community equally by 83.3% of 2%=1.7%

Hence the ratio of those identifying with Lebanon and their religious community equally becomes: 22.3%+1.7%= 24%

Ratio of those wishing to change their identity choice to become their religious community first: 16.7%

This increases the ratio of those who identify with their religious community first by 16.7% of 2% =0.3%

Hence the ratio of those identifying with their religious community first becomes 37.3%+0.3= 37.6%


Lebanon first: 32%Lebanon first: 32%








*Case Three: In the event of the upholding of the rule of law, i. e. protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination, AND the event of a clear conflict between national interest

and religious communal interest, does your previous choice change?

**A** Choice of the religious community first: 16.7%

Changes 100%, so that the ratio of change is 16.7%

A 100% change so that the ratio of Lebanon and the religious community equally choice increases by 16.7%

Hence the ratio of this choice group rises: 24%+16.7%=40.7%.

And the ratio of the choice of religious community group drops: 37.6%-16.7%=20.9%




Lebanon and religious community equally:40.7%Lebanon and religious community equally:40.7%..





**B** Choice of Lebanon and religious community equally:83.3%

Changes by 10%, or 8.3%

Hence the ratio of those identifying with their religious community first becomes: 37.6%+8.3%=45.9%.

And he ratio of those identifying with Lebanon and the religious community equally becomes: 24%-8.3%=16.7%








Changes of Choice of Identity from the Religious Community to other choices

Ratio of the respondents with the choice of the religious community first:37.3% Ratio of the respondents who wish to change their choice in the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest:16.1% Change from the religious community choice to other choices is 16.1% of 37.3%=6%

Ratio of the choice of religious community group drops to: 37.6%-6%=31.3%

Ratio of those who wish to change their choice to Lebanon and the religious community equally in the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest is 50%.

Ratio of the choice of Lebanon and the religious community equally increases by 50% of 6%=3%

Hence the ratio of the choice of Lebanon and the religious community equally rises to: 22.3%+3%=25.3%.

Ratio of those who wish to change their choice to Lebanon first in the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest:50%

Ratio of the choice of Lebanon first increases by 50% of 6%=3%

Hence the ratio of the choice of Lebanon first rises to: 34%+3%=37%.









Ratio of change in such event from religious community first to other choices:23.7% of 37.3% =8.8%Hence the ratio of the religious community first choice becomes 37.3%-8.8%= 28.5%

Ratio of those wishing to change their identity choice to become Lebanon and their religious community equally in the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest: 64.2%This increases the ratio of those who identify with Lebanon and their religious community equally by 64.2% of 8.8%=5.7%Hence the ratio of those identifying with Lebanon and their religious community equally becomes: 22.3%+5.7%= 28%

Ratio of those wishing to change their identity choice to Lebanon first in the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest: 35.8%This increases the ratio of those who identify with Lebanon first by 35.8% of 8.8% =3.2%Hence the ratio of those identifying Lebanon first becomes 34%+3.2%= 37.2%

The choices of identity thus becomeThe choices of identity thus become::Lebanon first: 37.2%Lebanon first: 37.2%Religious community first: 28.5%Religious community first: 28.5%Lebanon and religious community equally:28%Lebanon and religious community equally:28%..





*Case Three: In the event of the upholding of the rule of law, i. e. protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination, AND the event of a clear conflict between national interest and religious

communal interest, does your previous choice change?

**A** Choice of Lebanon first: 35.8%

Changes by 10.5%, so that the ratio of change equals 10.5% of 35.8%=3.8%

Ratio of choice of Lebanon first drops: 35.8%-3.8%=33.4%

Change to choice of religious community first:50%

Ratio of change: 50% of 3.8%=1.9%

Ratio of choice of Lebanon and the religious community equally increases to: 28%+1.9%=29.9%









*Case One: Conflict between national interest and religious communal interest

Ratio of the respondents who made their choice Lebanon and religious communities equally: 22.3%

Ratio of respondents who would change their choice in the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest: 46.6%

Ratio of change from Lebanon and religious communities equally to other choices: 22.3% of 46.6%=10.4%

Hence the ratio of the Lebanon and religious communities equally choice becomes 22.3%-10.4%= 11.9%

Ratio of those wishing to change their identity choice to become Lebanon first in the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest: 16.1%

This increases the ratio of those who identify with Lebanon first by 16.1% of 10.4%=1.7%

Hence the ratio of those identifying with Lebanon first becomes: 34%+1.7%= 35.7%

Ratio of those wishing to change their identity choice to become their religious community first in the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest: 83.9%

This increases the ratio of those who identify with the religious communities first by 83.9% of 10.7% =8.7%

Hence the ratio of those identifying with their religious community first becomes 37.3%+ 8.7%= 46%



Religious community first: 46%Religious community first: 46%


Changes of Choice of Identity from Lebanon and the Religious Community equally to other choices





Ratio of change in such event from Lebanon and the religious communities equally to other choices:19.5% of 22.3% =4.3%

Hence the ratio of the Lebanon and the religious communities equally choice drops to: 22.3%-4.3%= 18%

Ratio of those wishing to change their identity choice to become Lebanon first in the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest: 80.8%

This increases the ratio of those who identify with Lebanon first by 8o.8% of 4.3%=13.5%

Hence the ratio of those identifying with Lebanon first rises to: 34%+3.5%= 37.5%

Ratio of those wishing to change their identity choice to become their religious community first in the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest: 7.7%

This increases the ratio of those who identify with their religious community first by 7.7% of 4.3% =0.3%

Hence the ratio of those identifying with their religious community first becomes 37.3%+0.3= 37.6%









*Case Three: In the event of the upholding of the rule of law, i. e. protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination, AND the event of a clear conflict between national interest and religious

communal interest, does your previous choice change?

** A ** Choice of Lebanon first:80.8%Changes by 23.8%, so that the ratio of change equals 80.8% of 23.8%=19.2%Ratio of choice of Lebanon first drops: 37.5%-19.2%=18.3%Change to choice of religious community first:40%Ratio of change: 0% of 19.2%=7.7%Ratio of the religious community first choice increases to: 37.6%+7.7%=45.3%Change to choice of Lebanon and religious communities equally:40%Ratio of change:40% of 19.2%=7.7%Ratio of the Lebanon and religious community equally choice rises to:18%-7.7%=10.3%

The choices of identity thus becomeThe choices of identity thus become::Lebanon first: 18.3%Lebanon first: 18.3%Religious community first: 45.3%Religious community first: 45.3%Lebanon and religious community equally:10.3%Lebanon and religious community equally:10.3%..





**B** Choice of the religious community first: 7.7%, without change.Hence the earlier results in the prior case remain the same:

Lebanon first: 37.5%Lebanon first: 37.5%Religious community first: 37.6%Religious community first: 37.6%Lebanon and religious community equally:18%Lebanon and religious community equally:18%..

NoteNote : :The percentages of the various choices under the above described variable events were The percentages of the various choices under the above described variable events were computed as pluses and minuses and resulted in the percentages displayed in the computed as pluses and minuses and resulted in the percentages displayed in the figure on Page 10figure on Page 10




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