BAHRAIN THE UNHEARD REBELLION IMPORTANT DATES 1913 – Bahrain is granted “independence” in a...
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BAHRAINTHE UNHEARD REBELLION
IMPORTANT DATES
1913 – Bahrain is granted “independence” in a treaty between the British and the Ottoman Empire, but remains under British control.
1931 – Oil is discovered in Bahrain by BAPCO (relative of SOCAL) and production begins the following year.
1961 – Sheikh Isa Bin-Salman al-Khalifa becomes leader of Bahrain and establishes Bahrain as a monarchy. The Khalifa’s are Sunni Muslim while the majority of Bahrainis are Shiite.
1970 – Iran drops its claims of sovereignty over Bahrain after a UN referendum shows Bahrainis wish to remain independent.
1971 – Khalifa becomes Emir of Bahrain when they obtain independence from Britain.
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BAHRAIN
IMPORTANT DATES
1981 – Bahrain joins GCC; 73 people said to be agents of Iran arrested in plot to overthrow the government.
1986 – King Fahd Causeway connects Bahrain and Saudi Arabia
1991 – United States and Bahrain sign defense agreement
1996 – Another alleged coup plot uncovered by Bahrain assigned to Iran
1997 – Bahrain becomes sole owner of BAPCO
1999 – Sheikh Hamad succeeds his father to the throne
2001 – Bahrain becomes a constitutional monarchy under a referendum with local elections following in 2002
2004 – Bahrain signs free trade agreement with the U.S.
2006 – Bahrain has elections in which Shia’s win 40% of parliamentary seats
2010 – Shia are poised to make big gains in parliament elections; many are arrested in a parliamentary coup before elections; Shias make small gains but this election proves to be a spark in 2011
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BAHRAINBasic Facts and Demographics
Oil was a primary export, however, now Bahrain has returned to refining and international banking as reserves decline. One of the most diversified economies in the Middle East.
70% Shia ruled by Sunni monarchy. Similar protests were placated in 1990s through economic and political reforms, including parliamentary elections.
38% of the country is non-Bahraini foreign workers living in the country. Many of these are Sunnis who work for the security apparatus of the regime.
1.2 million people, solid age structure; however, fast growing population (2.8%) and 20% unemployment
4.5% of GDP goes toward military expenditure (20th highest in the world).
Long term greivances between Shia population and Sunni government have become especially exasperated after 2010 elections and have spilled over into protests in 2011.
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BAHRAINFebruary 14
Protests begin in Bahrain at the Pearl Roundabout. Protesters gathered at the Pearl Roundabout to call for Constitutional reforms. Protesters were met with force from the beginning, resulting in 14 deaths.
Protests continue through February, with the government and protesters trading positions around the Pearl Roundabout.
March 14
Saudi and Emirati troops are sent to assist Bahrain in ending the protests to the chagrin of the international community. State of Emergency is declared.
March 18
Government destroys the Pearl Roundabout in the hopes to quell protests. Six opposition leaders are arrested and jailed for “speaking with foreign agents.”
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BAHRAIN
May 31/June 1
King Hamad calls for dialogue and state of emergency is lifted.
November 23
Report is issued admitting that regime used excessive force to quell protests where 23 died; no connection found with Iran.
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BAHRAIN
Allegations Against the Bahraini Regime
Doctors were targeted en masse because they have proof of atrocities by the regime
Doctors were put on trial for treating protesters
Protesters were sentenced to death; several have been tortured to death
300 workers fired from oil plants; teachers laid off; workers fired (US Labor groups sent to Bahrain to view evidence)
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BAHRAINJune 29
King Hamad called for an investigation into human rights abuses during the protests in February and March
November 23
Bahraini Independent Commission Report (BICI) finds excessive force was used and there was no Iranian influence.
35 people were killed, 500 people detained since February.
Government regretted the actions of a few, but still blamed Iran for propaganda and incitement
Report actually emboldened protesters who now believe they have increasingly legitimate claims against the government.
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BAHRAIN
Effects of Protests and Role of Actors
Protests still continue in cities throughout the country with arrests, detentions, and loss of jobs.
Economy has slowed to a drip. Shrank from projected 4% growth to 1.5% growth.
United States: Arms deal was cancelled until BICI report was cleared; labor relations strained; US Nationals are working to reform police forces and helping with regime PR
Iran: Allegedly has had a hand in inciting Shia protestors; explosion at British Embassy last week – terrorism; Bahrain and Iran have important oil ties
Cold War in the Gulf? // What is next for the regime and protestors?
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YemenA Country on the Brink
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Yemen- Profile
Economy Dependent on depleting oil reserves Attempts at economic diversification Recently began exporting liquefied natural gas 35% unemployment (2003) Youth Bulge Declining water resources
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Yemen History
Yemen: A Brief History
1962- Yemen Arab Republic founded
1970- People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen founded
1984- Oil is discovered in Yemen by Hunt Company
1990- Unification of the YAR and PDRY into the Republic of Yemen
1993- Parliamentary Elections held, paving the way to Civil War
1994- Civil War breaks out between the North and South
2000- Saudi- Yemen Border demarcated
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Yemen History
Yemen: A Brief History cont’d
2000- USS Cole suicide attack
2004- Al-Houthi Movement emerges in North
2006- President Saleh wins election
2007- Southern Movement Reemerges
2009- Saudi Arabia engages Al-Houthi Movement militarily
2011- Yemen Uprising begins with protests and solidarity marches
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Yemen UprisingPhotos Courtesy of jadaliyya.com and Reuters
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Yemen Uprising
Causes
- Uprisings in Tunisia & Egypt
- High Unemployment
- Perpetually High Food and Gas Prices
- Corruption and Poor Governance
Major Players The Opposition Movement
-Youth Movement- Joint Meeting Parties (JMP)- Hashid Tribal Confederation-First Armored Division- General Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar
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Yemen Uprising
General People’s Congress (GPC)
- President Saleh maintains
- Patronage Mechanism
- Various GPC figures defected during the course of the uprisings
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Major Threats
Al- Houthi Movement
Hiraak al-Janoubi (Southern Movement)
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
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International Response
UN Resolution 2014
- Demands 30- day reporting mechanism on the progress being made towards initiating the GCC agreement
GCC brokered power transition
- Immunity for Saleh and other GPC members
- Saleh hands over power to VP Abdrabbuh Monsour al- Hadi within 30 days of signature (Dec. 23rd)
- Elections set for February 23, 2012
- 35 Member Interim National Unity Government Announced
US counter-terror operations top priority
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Saudi Arabia
Counter- Revolutionary Force or Protector of the
Status Quo?
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Background Information
Birthplace of Islam
Governed by Shar’ia Law and Wahhabism
Wealthy and “Developed” nation
High Rate of Unemployment
History of extensive Human Rights Abuses
Long and complicated history with United States
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Saudi Response to Arab Awakening
37 Billion Dollars ($US) in social reform and welfare programs
Overwhelming police presence within the Kingdom
Complete military crackdown on ANY demonstrations or protests
New “Anti-Terrorism” Law
Strict press laws and punishments for political activism
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Crown Prince Nayef and the Line of Succession
Former Defense Minister
Close to the Wahhabi Clerical Establishment
Ultra Conservative, hardliner
78 years old, much of royal family is old and/or ailing. Thought to be out of touch with much of Saudi population
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Principle Threat: Women
Current Situation• Very Repressed and
extremely limited both socially and culturally, as is standard in pure Wahhabist rule
• Desire more social and political freedom and inclusion within Saudi Society
Saudi Response: Women granted right to vote
recently
Stricter laws being passed regarding limiting women's’ freedoms within Saudi Arabia
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Principle Threat: The Youth Unemployment
Current Situation Average age is 25 years
Estimates for unemployment are as high as 25%
Huge gaps in income throughout the kingdom
About 80% of Saudi workforce are non-nationals
Saudi Response 37Billion dollars in welfare
reforms including unemployment benefits and subsidies
“Strategic Partnership” with the United States in a 385Billion Dollar Investment in the future of Saudi Arabia
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Principle Threat: Shia Minority
Current Situation 2Million Shia’s living in Qatif
Unfair treatment and subject to systematic discrimination
March: “Day of Rage”
Early December: 4 Dead and as many as 11 Injured in protests
Saudi Response Early December marks the
first time Saudi forces used gunfire against protestors
Using any and all means to quiet and quell dissent
Blamed violence on an “unnamed foreign influence”
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Demonstrations in Qatif
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Principle Threat: Iran
Struggle and Competition to be the regional Hegemon
Sectarian differences cause an escalation in the situation
Proxy Wars: Bahrain, Syria, Yemen, is Iraq next?
Extremist activity: Hamas, Hezbollah, Al Qaeda
United States wants containment of Iranian Influence
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Qatar
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A Basic History
1971: Independence from British
1939: Discovery of oil reserves
1990: Qatar allows foreign troops on territory; participates in Gulf War
1996: Al-Jazeera is launched
1999: Municipal elections take place for the first time
2001: Border disputes with Saudi Arabia and Bahrain settled
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2005: New Constitution comes into effect
2007: Doha Center for Media Freedom established
2008: First official Church inaugurated
2011: Join military operations in Libya
2013: First-ever elections for advisory committee to be held
Historical rule by Al-Thani family
Population: 1.8 million; 250,000 citizens
Majority religion: Sunni Islam
GDP per capita (2010): $179,000 (#1)
GDP Growth Rate (2010): 16.3%
HDI: 0.831
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Foreign Relations
Israel
Iran
Saudi Arabia
Bahrain
USA
Russia
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Military Power
Gulf War: Qatar allows foreign troops into territory
Iraq War: US base in Qatar becomes ‘nerve center’ of operations in Iraq (now largest military base outside of USA)
Libya: join in NATO-led military operations; reportedly arm rebels
10%GDP spent on military (2005 estimate)
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Soft Power GCC
Founding member 1981
Mediation Lebanon Sudan/Darfur Western Sahara Somalia Palestine
Al Jazeera Promoting freer media in Arab world Coverage of Arab Spring
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The Arab Spring
Al Jazeera coverage of uprisings Bahrain protests coverage English vs Arabic channels
Democratization: Advisory Council Election s planned for 2013
Sent troops to Bahrain during protests
Emir urges Western leaders to embrace moderate Islam
“If you have everything you need, who needs democracy?”