© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 Philip R Wood, QC (Hon) Head of Allen & Overy Global Law Intelligence Unit...

© Allen & Overy LLP 2010

Philip R Wood, QC (Hon)

Head of Allen & Overy Global Law Intelligence Unit

Predictions for the future of law and lawyers

Visiting Professor in International Financial Law, University of Oxford

Yorke Distinguished Visiting Fellow, University of Cambridge

Visiting Professor, Queen Mary College, University of London

Visiting Professor, London School of Economics & Political Science

April 2011


Leaders

BK-#16719881-v1-Predictions_-_Tue_5_April_211.PPT


GDP per capita



GDP FOOTBALL FIELDS ($10 trillion)

US

U

2010

S

U

2030

S (17)

CHI

EU

US EU

US EU (15)

CHI

JAPAN+

Tigers

THE REST

EU

EU

CHINAINDIA(10)

JAPAN+

TigersCHINA

JAPAN&

ASIA(19)

JAPAN&

ASIA

INDIALATIN

AMERICA(6)

THEREST

JAPAN&

ASIA

JAPAN&

ASIA

THEREST (6)NA (23) NA

1995



Growth of law: tentative chart

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

500BC

0 500AD

1000 1500 1800 2000

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Tipping Point 1830s:

World population: 1 bn (now 6.4 bn)World GDP $700 bn (now $50 tn)Great DivideTriple polarization



Growth of law: tentative chart

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

500BC

0 500AD

1000 1500 1800 2000

Tipping Point 1830s:

World population:World GDPGreat DivideTriple polarization

1 bn (now 6.4 bn)$700 bn (now $50 tn)

Pop. scale: 1 = 0.5 bnGDP scale: 0.2 = $1 bn

Population

GDP


Bank insolvencies 1980-2002


Financial regulatory regimes



State insolvency 1980-2005


Impact of the financial crisis - 1

– 1,000 measures– Restrictions on bank business– Capital, liquidity– Securitisations– Derivatives– Accounting– Hedge fund and private equity– Deposit protection– Taxes and special levies– Shorting and shareholding disclosure


Impact of the financial crisis - 2

– Securities settlement and payment systems– Regulators– Bank insolvencies– Corporate insolvencies– State insolvency– Super-priority creditors: the big three risk mitigants– Consumer protection– Litigation– Other– Overall assessment


[ ]



Map: Key map of jurisdictions


Global jurisdictions



Major changes to insolvency legislation 1997-2007


Major changes to company law 2000-2009


1975 - World Financial Law: Five key indicators


2010 - World Financial Law: Five key indicators


Million: 1,000,000

Billion: 1,000,000,000

Trillion: 1,000,000,000,000


Contract law


Paris Industrial Property Convention 1883


Map: New York Arbitration Convention of 1958


Map: Free choice of law for business contracts


Map: Hague Trust Recognition Convention 1986


Map: International insolvency treaties


Map: English common law jurisdictions


Supermap: Global security interests


Map: Napoleonic jurisdictions


Map: Insolvency set-off


Map: Roman-Germanic jurisdictions


Supermap: The trust


Map: Mixed civil/common law jurisdictions


Map: Islamic jurisdictions


Map: New and unallocated jurisdictions


Map: American common law jurisdictions


Map: Corporate insolvency rescue statutes


Corporate insolvency rescue statutes


Experts in their field

© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 Philip R Wood, QC (Hon) Head of Allen & Overy Global Law Intelligence Unit...

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