' A FISTFUL OFWhat does it mean to talk about

the risk of, say, being in an airplane

crash or being snuck by lightning?

Calculations of risks are averages,

so they have limited value to the

individual. Airplanes, for Instance,

may be safe in terms of death:

passenger mile, but that says 1

about the flight you’re abet

board-one that entails sev

takeoffs and landings in bad weather, on a day following a night

when the pilot may have had a few too many. To state a risk im-

plies a foretelling, but this predictive power is misleading. Risk

calculations almost always use historical data and mask the du-

AT HOMERisk of falling behindin mortgage paymentsin the next 12 months:

1 in24

Risk of foreclosure:1 in 345

AT WORKRisk of an adult (over16) losing his or herjob in the next year:

1 in33By profession:DOCTOR

1 in 116

LAWYER1 in 82

POSTAL WORKER1 in41

ACCOUNTANT1 in40

BUS DRIC’ER1 in22

FARMWORKER1 in 8

Risk of dying in anaccident on the job:m 1934

390 in a millionw 1994

40 in a million

Occupations with highrisk of injury:

TRUCKERSCOAL MIhYERS

Occupations with lowrisk of injury:

STOCKBROKFRSLAU’YFRSINSCRANCE EXECUTn’ES

R I S K Sbious assumpnon th3: :Y: *__- _-:

will behave like the pa\:

With these caveats tn n.:-- . . _

combed the statistics of nslx . ._

havior to come up with a irr

numbers to ponder. In many c&xx

we had to knead the data into L+.

format of risk-a ratio, less than

one, of outcomes to possibilities,

within a span of time-the num-

ber of people struck hy liphming in a year divided by the num-

ber who could have been struck. All these figures pertain to the

United States unless otherwise noted, but be forewarned: to

take them literally is risky indeed.

IN THE FIELDRisk of being injuredin an elevator ride:

1 in 6 mullion

Risk of dying from:~.\R’I’l IC.XGJ ()R \~OI.C.GY~

1 in 11 millionLE.uds(; c; 1s

1 in 12 millionDOG BITF

1 in 20 millionDRISKIS(; DF-rER(;E\-I‘

1 in 23 millionSSAKEBITE

1 in 36 million

The risk of contractingan infection during astay at a U.S. hospital:

lin15

The risk of beinginfected with flesh-eating bacteria:

1 in 170,000Risk of dying onceinfected:

1 in4

Risk, for an African, ofcontracting the Ebolavirus:

1 in 14 millionRisk of dying onceinfected:

2 in 3

Riskiest meals out (inMinnesota):Minnesota may not be repre-sentative of the country as awhole, but no other statekeeps such close tabs on whogets sick where. We arrived at

these figures by estimatingthat each state resident goesto each type of restaurantonce a year-which may notbe the case. At any rate, here’syour yearly risk of being poi-soned at the following:IT.%L4N RESTAL’R~\-F

1 in 1,400,OOOFAST-FOOD REST-AL-Ri1-T

1 in 440,000BUSINESS .\IEETITG

1 in 400,000FAMILY G,\THERISG

1 in 388,000DELICATESSES

1 in 240,000MEXICLN RESTAURrLlT

1 in 136,000

more often than adult,. hutthey lead safer In es-1 2 chil-dren per 1 OO,OO( 1 JIG ri( ,rn anaccident yearh. ab RX J rhirdthe rate for adults. Thi, chn-ously should not deter p.u-cm\from vigilance. But here’, howthose childhood AccIJcnrdldeaths break dew nMOTOR \THICI F

46 percentFIRE5

15 percentDRO\\NINC,

15 percentFALL.\

3 percentCHOKII(,

3 percentGUNS

3 percent

POISONTNG1 percent

OTHER13 percent

The risk of a chikdying before the

age of five:I\ V )L I I I \\I \

1 in 8I\ 1111 1\lIII)\I\II

1 in 1001 EEI\.Ac;t HEHAVIOK

The risk that theaverage teenager willdrink hard liquor:! 1 u1.1

1 in 60()S(:E OR 73iTCE .A 5IONTH

1 in6

The risk that ateenager will smokemarijuana:DVLY

1 in30ONCE OR 71f’ICE A MONTH

1 in 17

The risk that ateenager will usecocaine:D-ULY

1 in 100OSCE OR TUTCE A MONTH

1 in 140

The risk of anadolescent or youngadult, aged 14 to 25,dying from:( \K ACCIDFNT

1 in 3,500\IL KI>F R

1 m 4,iOOx: I( IDF

I m 7.700

iiClcILT HEtiA~IIUR\Ien are 2.3 times as likely todue in a car crash, 3.3 times as11kel!- to poison themselves,and -.-1 times as likely to diefrom \I[)4 as women.

The price:Since risk calculations arebased on al erages, they areoften difficult to interpret.

Here are some risky activitiesand the associated costs to lifeexpectancy. The figures give afeeling for relative risks, butit would be silly to take themliterally.DRIVING WITHOUT A SEATBELT ON

6 seconds (per trip)DRINKING A DIET SOFTDRINK

9 secondsSMOKING ONE CIGARETTE

12 minutesBEING BORN MALE

2,700 days

The risk of dying whilegiving birth:IN IRELAND

1 in 50,000IN THE LNITED STATES

1 in 12,500IN MALI

1 in 50

Your peak years fordying from:ACCIDENT AGEDROWNING, o - 5

FIRES, BURNSCAR ACCIDENT 15-2.5POISONING 30-40FALLS 80-90

knows that airtravel is safer per passengermile than car travel (morethan 40 times safer on aver-age). But that doesn’t neces-sarily mean that you’re saferflying on your next vacationthan driving. If you live, say,in Lafayette, Indiana, here’show the risk of death fromtraveling to two popular vaca-tion spots stacks up:DRIVING 100 MILES TOCHICAGO AND BACK

1 in 588,000FLYING 5,000 MILES FRO,MCHICAGO TO ROME ANDBACK

1 in 500,000

SAFEST STATE FOR DRIVINGRhode Island

\IOST DANGEROUSWyoming

Risk of beinginvolved in an

alcohol-relatedtraffic accident in

a lifetime:

C R I M EIn the next 12 months,your risk, on average,of being:MURDERED

1 in 11,000ROBBED

1 in 400BURGLARIZED

1 in 50

The risk of somebodystealing:YOUR CAR

1 in 145YOUR BICYCLE

1 in 280YOUR WALLET OR PURSE

1 in 1,560

AND IF YOU REALLYNEED TO WORRYThe risk of your beingwiped out (with nearlyeverybody else onEarth) next year by acatastrophic comet,meteor, or asteroidimpact:

1 in 20,000

Your risk of being hit,directly, by a formercelestial body:

1 in 150 trillion

F=

.‘XX’