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9-11, U.S. Intelligence, & the Real World

Robert David Steele<bear@oss.net>

A Nation’s best defense is an educated citizenry. Thomas Jefferson

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9-11: Systemic Failure

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World War III Players

Bacteria

Nation-States

Gangs

Companies

Citizens

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Policy Intelligence Failure:Unbalanced Instruments of Power

Too much of:• Military heavy metal

• Technical collection

Not enough of:• Humans on ground

• Human expert analysis

• Technical processing

• State & local intelligence

• Public health, water, etc.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

USA Allies Russia China Rogues

Military Diplomacy Home Front

The real budget is the real policy.

Citizens must vote and provide constant oversight if the taxpayer

dollar is to be spent wisely.

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Intelligence Defined

Collection• Human• Technical

Analysis• Current• Estimative

Covert Action• Black Ops• Mind Ops

Counter-intelligence• Defensive• Offensive

Leadership• Mindset• Courage

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9-11 & Intelligence: the Boiling Pot

• Collection: – Satellites deaf

– Spies incompetent

• Data entry: FBI still in pencil & paper mode

• Translation: lack of personnel or funds

• Processing: no single central OpIntel “plot”

• Analysis– Did not connect the

dots (dots found to have been known)

– Marginally-qualified analysts (no language, culture, history)

• Liaison: “business as usual,” no demands

• Mind-set: muddled

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9-11 & Policy: The Oblivious Frog

• World Trade Center 1st Bombing– Sidelined to law

enforcement

– Documents not translated

– Ignored bin Laden’s open declaration of war

– No change to visa or border security process

• Global Terrorism– Ignored warnings on

cockpit and airport safety (industry against)

– Accepted bombings of 2 embassies, a barracks, and a naval vessel as “cost of doing business”

– Accepted lack of action by other nations

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Digital Analog Oral/Unpublished

EnglishLanguage

ForeignLanguages*

*29 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all.

NSA FBIS UN/STATE

Cascading Deficiencies:1) Don’t even try to access most information2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital3) Can’t translate most of what we collect

CIA/DO

NRO

Global Intelligence FailureBreakdown in Collection and Understanding

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50% Less CostlyM

ore

Sat

isfy

ing

SIGINT

OSINT

0% 50%

HUMINT

IMINT

MASINT

STATE

Does Not Exist

Global Processing FailureBreakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination

® Conflict Facts for 200223 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC

Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman

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Ethnic Fault Lines 200018 Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today

Source: Dr. Greg Stanton

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Water & War

Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53

Hyper-Arid

Sub-Humid

Arid

Semi-Arid

Water Pollution

1

2

34

5

6

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Global Threats to Local Survival

*State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002

Complex Emergencies32 Countries

Refugees/Displaced66 Countries

Food Security33 Countries

Child Soldiers41 Countries

Modern Plagues*59 Countries & Rising

Water Scarcity &Contaminated Water**Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today**

Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution**

Corruption Common80 Countries

Censorship Very High62 Countries

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Asymmetric War

• Whatever it takes--– Fight dirty

– Fight smart

– Sabotage

– Bug bombs

– Electronic attack

– Anthrax = panic

– “Ju jitsu” warfare

• $500K = $20B loss

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World Has Changed: I

OLD SECURITY• War “Over There”• State on State War• Organized Violence• Only State Could Do• Defined Rules• Clear Winners/Losers

NEW SECURITY• Terror at Home• Non-State Actors• Random Violence• Anyone Can Play• No Rules At All• Endless Conflict

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PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURETunnels, Pipelines, Bridges, Dams, Towers

ELECTRONIC INFRASTRUCTUREPower, Financial, Comms, Transportation

MILITARY ACHILLES’ HEELSOff-base power, down-links, antennas

ECONOMIC BLAHSNo Fly No Spend No Hire

DATACorruption

Public Health

Home Front Weaknesses

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TIME IMPACT SHORT

TIME IMPACT

LONG

MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL

EQUITIES

SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION

EQUITIES

LEADERS DECIDE

PEOPLE DECIDE

TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL

SECRET SOURCES & METHODS

BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING

OPEN SOURCES & METHODS

OBVIOUS DETAIL

OBSCURE DETAIL

OLD

NEW

World Has Changed: II

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Taking Down the WestElectronic Targets• Federal Reserve• Internet switches• Satellite downlinks• Power generators• Railway controls• Fuel tank controls• Dam & sewage controls

Physical Targets• Alaska pipeline• Panama canal• Telephone switches• Cables (“Cut Here”)• Railway bridges• Dams and levees• Tunnels to cities

Bio-war: Suicidal blond blue-eyed plague & smallpox carriers

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Individual as Threat

and Target

State as Threat

and Target

Defense Against Weapons Systems “Over There”

Defense of InfrastructureHere at Home

Offense Against Fixed Ground

Offense Against Distributed Groups

OLDNEW

PRIVATE SECTOR IS PRIMARY ACTOR

STATE IS PRIMARY ACTOR

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Four Different Threats to America:Require Four Different Security Approaches

PHYSICAL

STEALTH,

PRECISION

TARGETING

NATURAL

STEALTH,

RANDOM

TARGETING

CYBER -

STEALTH,

DATABASE

TARGETING

IDEO -

STEALTH,

MASS

TARGETING

GUERRILLAWAR

CULTURALWAR

HIGH TECH

BRUTES

(BIG WAR)

LOW TECH

BRUTES

(GANGS)

HIGH TECH

SEERS

(HOME)

LOW TECH

SEERS

(POOR)

MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS

POWER BASE

KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY

TERRORISMECONOMICWAR

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Agricultural Era Power

• Brotherhood (Blood)• Strength (Brute)• Memory (Skill)• Customs (Tribal Mind)• Secret Societies• Crusading Religions• Citizenship (New Tribe)

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Industrial Era Power

• Luck/Mineral Discovery• Specialization• Laws and Rules• Concentrated Wealth• Armed Forces• Taxation & Bureaucracy• Infrastructure• Fraud & Corruption

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Information Era Power

• Insider knowledge• Social wealth networks• Electric power• Global transportation• Electronic money• Electronic

communications• The Internet

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Hurting High-Tech Brutes

• Pay attention to them• Have a grand strategy

– Tribal focus

– Regional focus

– Money talks

– Be ruthless

• Have your facts right• Have public support

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Hurting Low-Tech Brutes

• Kill them• Jail them• Impoverish them• Diminish them• If you cannot combine

early intelligence down to the individual level, with ruthlessness, you will lose.

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Hurting Low-Tech Seers

• Genocide• Famine• Plagues• Water scarcity• Unfettered crime• Promote war lords• Tolerate corruption• Avoid them

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Hurting High-Tech Seers

• Cause Random Panic• Cause Plague• Crash the Fed• Hack Logistics• Blow Planes, Trains• Blow Tunnels• Blow Oil Tanks• Random Sniping

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10%

50%

25%

15%

State vs State

State vs Nation

Inter-Ethnic Tribal

Gang Wars, Genocide,Decolonization

Taxpayer Dollars Focused on 10% of the Threat

®New Strategy: 1 + iii:

Need huge increase in “soft power” capabilities

50% 15% 20% 15%

250B vs. 400B 75B vs 20B 100B vs. 20B 75B vs. 16B

CINCWAR CINCSOLIC CINCPEACE CINCHOME

Strategic NBC Small Wars State/USIA Intelligence

Big War(s) Constabulary Peace Corps Border Patrol

Ground Truth Economic Aid Port Security

1 ii i

Electronic

Reserve

Reserve Environment

Public HealthReserve

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Public Intelligence Failure:Uneducated, unengaged, unconnected

Why This Matters• Homeland security--”A

Nation’s best defense is an educated citizenry.”

• Prosperity--the financial value of ethics, trust, strategic culture

• Global security--the long-term value of public intelligence to multi-cultural policy initiativesWorld War III Players

Bacteria

Nations

GangsCitizens

Inc.

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New Craft of Intelligence

I

Lessons of History

II

Global Coverage

III

National Intelligence

IV

Spies & Secrecy

China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.

Cost-Sharing with Others--Shared Early Warning

Narrowly focused!

Harness distributed intelligence of Nation

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Seven Intelligence Tribes:The Way Ahead

Military

Law Enforcement

Business

Academic

National

NGO &Media

Religions& Clans

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Modern Presidential LeadershipPresidentCongress Judiciary

Chief of Staff

Director-General forNational Policy

Director-General forGlobal Strategy

Director-General forNational Intelligence

Director-General forNational Research

Director of ClassifiedIntelligence (DCI)

Chairman, NationalIntelligence Council

Director, Global Knowledge Foundation

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Modern Strategic Governance

Director GeneralGlobal Strategy

Deputy DirectorGlobal Strategy

Deputy DirectorResponse Management

Associate Directors• Strategic Council• Leadership Retreats• Global Reserve• Special Projects

Associate Directors• Response Center• Public Liaison• Civilian Reserve• Non-State Actors

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Governance Reform

• Coalition Cabinet• Quality Education• Public Health• Ethics• 7th Generation Issues

– Water

– Energy

– Information

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Electoral Reform

• Voting on week-ends• League of Women

Voters & Debates• Cabinet Choices in

Advance & in Debates• Instant Run-Off• End Gerrymandering• End Corporate Funding

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Let’s Get Our Priorities Straight!

• Third, share the benefits of life with all mankind.• Fourth, ensure that life on Earth is sustainable.

First, defeat terrorism.

Second, strengthen our alliances.

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A Strong America Through Common Sense

• We must honor our values and stop supporting dictators.

• We must serve the interests of the people rather than corporations.

• We must have balanced national security capabilities.

• We must be fiscally sound.

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9-11, U.S. Intelligence, & the Real World

Robert David Steele<bear@oss.net>

…the greatest menace to freedom is an inert people... Justice Louis Brandeis